Overrated & Underrated 2024 Quarterback Prospects

As part of the leadup to the 2024 NFL Draft, we’ve launched a series here at NFL Trade Rumors looking at overrated and underrated prospects at each position. First up this week was cornerback — five underrated players and five overrated players — and now we’re diving into the quarterbacks. 

This class might be the best in terms of perception since 2021 when five quarterbacks went in the first round and three in the top three picks:

1. No. 1 – Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence
2. No. 2 – Jets QB Zach Wilson
3. No. 3 – 49ers QB Trey Lance
4. No. 12 – Bears QB Justin Fields
5. No. 15 – Patriots QB Mac Jones

That class also serves as a warning of just how hard it is to evaluate the position. Three of the five first-rounders are no longer on the team that drafted them and it’s only a matter of time until the Jets move on from Wilson and make it four. 

This year, it’s seen as another strong group at the top. Three prospects have been seen as a lock for the first round for much of the process. Odds are these three will make up the first three selections, too. USC QB Caleb Williams has been viewed as future No. 1 pick since his freshman year and a borderline generational prospect. North Carolina QB Drake Maye looked like a prototypical passer and also experienced early success. And in 2023, LSU QB Jayden Daniels launched himself into the conversation with a nuclear season, winning the Heisman Trophy as a fifth-year starter. 

Over the past few months, Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy has also inserted himself into the conversation as a first-round lock. It’s not clear where exactly McCarthy will be drafted but it seems like there’s a good chance it’s higher than people thought back in January. McCarthy may make it four quarterbacks with the first four picks of the first round in April, which would be the first time ever. At minimum, there should be four first-rounders between Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy. 

Two other prospects have been in the conversation for the first round and should still hear their names called early, both experienced passers from the dying PAC-12. Oregon QB Bo Nix holds the NCAA record for career starts and had two huge seasons out west after transferring from Auburn. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. overcame injury concerns after four years at Indiana and helped lead the Huskies to a berth in the national title game. 

Beyond those six, there’s the usual group of future backups and hopeful developmental prospects. This class might be a little shallower than usual with the NIL environment in college football giving players more incentive to stay and try to improve their stock. There will still be players in this group who interest the NFL, however. 

In terms of being overrated or underrated, it’s all relative. For this exercise, I’ll be using the consensus of where these quarterbacks are projected to be drafted to set the baseline, picking two quarterbacks who I think will exceed their baseline and two who I think will underperform. Earlier this year, I also did scouting reports on the top six prospects in this year’s class, which has more detail and was before all of the narratives and noise from the pre-draft process. 

Underrated: Oregon QB Bo Nix

In my February scouting reports, I was a little higher on Nix than the consensus, ranking him as my fourth quarterback behind the big three and ahead of McCarthy and Penix. Since then, McCarthy’s stock has exploded like rocket fuel and Penix has also generated quite a bit of interest with his performances at the Combine and his pro day. 

Nix has stayed more under the radar. The way things are trending, it feels more likely that he’ll be a second-round pick than a first-rounder, though anything is still possible. But I remain confident Nix will outperform multiple quarterbacks drafted ahead of him in the NFL. 

There’s not any one thing that Nix does at an elite level, especially compared to other prospects. He’s not the fastest or the biggest. He’s not the most accurate and he doesn’t have the strongest arm. However, Nix is competent in a wide variety of the skills asked of a starting professional quarterback. Some prospects fail despite high-level traits because they can’t put it all together. Nix’s game, on the other hand, is more than the sum of its parts. 

The one thing Nix does have that no other quarterback in this class has to the same degree is experience. He holds the NCAA record for career starts after three years at Auburn and two at Oregon. His two seasons at Oregon featured prolific numbers and much more team success. At Auburn, Nix had a 21-13 record as a starter and averaged less than 2,500 passing yards a season. At Oregon, he was 22-5 and threw for over 8,000 yards in two seasons. 

Oregon’s offense ecosystem was much healthier than Auburn’s, and that’s often used as a critique of Nix. His average depth of target fell precipitously, and a frequently-cited concern on scouting reports is that Nix’s huge leap in production was mostly a gimmick of Oregon spamming short passes.

However, that doesn’t give Nix enough credit. There’s a phrase in NFL scouting about quarterbacks who don’t get bored with completions. It’s fitting for Nix. Among the quarterbacks in this class, he might be the best right now at identifying where the defense is soft and capitalizing with a quick completion. His accuracy is also at its best on short throws, hitting receivers in stride and helping them maximize potential yards after the catch. 

That doesn’t mean Nix is just a game manager. When the situation calls for Nix to make a big play, he has the tools to capitalize. He has enough arm strength to threaten down the field and outside the numbers, and enough speed to both buy time in the pocket and hurt defenses who don’t honor his legs.

I won’t pretend to be connected enough to know about his intangibles, but the buzz about Nix’s leadership during the pre-draft process has been positive. One moment that stood out to me on tape as well was an otherwise non-descript run against Utah in 2023 where Nix made it a point after the play to call out a good block backside from I believe WR Traeshon Holden (No. 5). 

The reality is that the landing spot for most of these young quarterbacks will go a long way toward determining if they’re able to reach their potential. Sometimes slipping in the draft and landing with an organization with more of a history of winning can be a good thing. I think Nix would be a tremendous fit with the Broncos and HC Sean Payton, though if they have to take him at No. 12 overall that won’t necessarily lower the immediate expectations. Nix is a great fit for what Payton has historically asked of his quarterbacks.

Comparing anyone to a Hall of Famer is risky business, but the similarities between Nix and Drew Brees are there. If Nix is 25 percent as successful as Brees, he’ll be a successful pick for any team. 

Overrated: Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy

I think it’s important to put some qualifiers here. Calling McCarthy overrated is not the same as calling him a bad player or a bad prospect. I can understand why there appears to be serious interest from NFL evaluators in McCarthy. There are some great throws he’s put on tape, and his record at Michigan is another strong selling point for the league. 

But if we’re talking about McCarthy as a top-five pick that a team trades multiple first-round picks to acquire…I just don’t know about that. 

There are no real bulletproof quarterback prospects and there’s a risk in drafting any player. But McCarthy is a major projection beyond the ordinary. His career pass attempts lag far behind any of the other notable prospects in this class as the run-heavy Wolverines didn’t ask McCarthy to sling it all over the field. In terms of physical tools, he’s not an outlier like Bryce Young was last year, but he’s also not the prototype when it comes to size or arm strength or anything like that. 

And while McCarthy boasts a more-than-respectable sizzle reel of throws into tight windows to show his ability as a passer, the down-to-down consistency is lacking. He misses a lot of passes and leaves yards on the field with bad ball placement on others. His inaccuracy becomes more glaring when he’s trying to put extra zip on the ball; he’ll lose control or he’ll widen his base too much and overstride, leading to overthrows. 

McCarthy also makes other mistakes tied to youth. He’ll hang onto plays too long when he’d be better served checking down or throwing the ball away. At times, he’d predetermine reads or not see the field cleanly. He’s got some speed but he needs to learn when to take contact and when to get down. McCarthy is a tough player but he’s not big enough to take some of the hits he took in college at the NFL level. 

That said, the case for McCarthy centers around potential. He’s only 21 years old and there are enough glimpses of him making NFL throws in a pro-style, NFL offense for coaches to get excited about projecting what he can do if asked to do more than he did at Michigan. 

It just comes back to the first point about expectations. Teams spend early first-round picks on quarterbacks they believe can be franchise starters — guys who can elevate the roster to wins instead of needing a strong team around them to have success. I’m not sure if McCarthy has that kind of ceiling and I’m a lot more sure he needs time to learn without being crushed by expectations if he’s ever going to get there. 

They’re different players, but there are parallels to draw with Baker Mayfield. Judged as a former No. 1 pick, Mayfield’s career has been a disappointment so far. Judged against the tableau of options across the league, Mayfield has value as an average starter, even above-average in the right situation. It’s easy to see McCarthy’s career playing out in a similar way. 

Underrated: Wisconsin QB Tanner Mordecai

Mordecai is unlikely to ever be viewed as a starting-caliber quarterback for a team. However, for a player receiving little discernable buzz right now, he has an under-the-radar chance to stick with a team and become a backup. For a late Day 3 pick or an undrafted free agent, which is where Mordecai is projected, that would be a great return on investment.  

The 24-year-old Mordecai has had a long and winding journey to this point. He started his career as a four-star recruit at Oklahoma but lost two competitions for the starting job to Jalen Hurts and Spencer Rattler (more on him soon). He transferred to SMU and played two seasons, putting up big numbers in the Mustangs’ wide-open spread offense. In two seasons, Mordecai threw for 7,152 yards, 72 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. He set the school record for passing touchdowns in a game twice, first in 2021 with seven and then again with nine in 2022. 

With one year of eligibility remaining, Mordecai transferred to Wisconsin and was the first quarterback for the Badgers in their new era of modern offense. It didn’t go as smoothly for Mordecai as it did at SMU. He started 10 games and maintained a 65 percent completion percentage, but his yards per attempt dipped from 8.0 at SMU to 6.6 at Wisconsin. He also threw just nine touchdowns to four interceptions. 

That said, Mordecai’s receivers let him down at Wisconsin far more than at SMU. Mordecai regularly put the ball in a spot for his receivers to make a play, but his wideouts couldn’t capitalize at the catch point. He played better than the statistics indicate, also chipping in with 300 yards rushing and four touchdowns. 

For the NFL, Mordecai doesn’t have top-shelf arm strength or physical tools. However, he’s experienced with tools to surprise in August and earn a spot to stick around and develop further on the practice squad. Down the line with the right team, that could turn into a role like Jake Browning has for the Bengals now. 

Overrated: South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler

Rattler is a popular sleeper pick in this class and it’s easy to understand why. Back in 2022 at Oklahoma, he was viewed as a potential future No. 1 pick and the next in former HC Lincoln Riley’s pipeline coming off of a strong redshirt freshman season. Instead, he struggled to start the season and lost his job to Caleb Williams. 

Rattler transferred to South Carolina and started the past two seasons for the Gamecocks. In that time, he displayed the arm talent that had him in the discussion as a potential top pick but also failed to shake the inconsistency that derailed his college career. In two years at South Carolina, Rattler completed 67.5 percent of his pass attempts for 6,212 yards, 37 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. 

At this point, a lot of the buzz has Rattler coming off the board early on Day 3 of the draft, perhaps even sneaking into the end of the third round or the top 100 picks. We’ll see how it shakes out. For my money, I think Rattler will continue to be a tease at the NFL level just like he was in college. 

Rattler has real arm talent. He has an effortless-looking flick that can launch the ball deep downfield or drive it on a line outside the numbers. He can get these passes off on the move too, and those off-script plays are some of the best moments on Rattler’s tape. South Carolina dialed up a healthy amount of shot plays to take advantage of some of the athletes they had and Rattler’s arm strength. 

The rest of Rattler’s game isn’t quite as robust. He can scramble but he’s not quite athletic enough to be a true rushing threat at quarterback. There are limitations to his escapability. Unfortunately, he relies too much on this part of his game when things get hairy, and it’s what led to his downfall at Oklahoma. He’s taken steps in this area the past couple of years but still falls below the standard the NFL will require as a dropback passer. 

In addition to the shot plays, South Carolina relied heavily on RPOs and other schemed plays to try and make the picture clear for Rattler. They did not ask him to drop back and read the whole field often. To be fair, few colleges ask their starters to do that, and Rattler did have moments where he hung in the pocket and got to his backside reads in time with the ball. They just happened too far and few in between on tape for my liking. 

The good news is Rattler will likely land in a situation where he won’t be asked to start immediately, giving him time to continue to polish his game. From a talent perspective, he does have as much potential as just about anyone outside of the top six options in this class. Reaching it will be the challenge.