Week 3 NFL Panic-Meter

One game in the NFL can be an aberration. Two is a rough patch. Three, though, is a trend. 

That makes this week an inflection point for the NFL teams who are struggling, and it’s a lot of them. Over half the league has a losing record. There’s still a lot of season left but problems that have lasted for three games aren’t problems that just magically go away. 

Here’s a run-through of some concerning situations catching our eye — and the prognosis. Is it time for these teams to panic? Or can they turn things around? 

Miami’s Quarterback Woes

The Dolphins have a quarterback problem. Backup Skylar Thompson looked overwhelmed when he had to take over for Tua Tagovailoa two Thursdays ago when Tagovailoa suffered his latest concussion. Some of that is understandable, as Miami was facing a notable deficit, runs a complicated offense and Thompson was thrust in with no warning on a short-week game. 

Leading up to Week 3’s game against the Seahawks, the Dolphins projected nothing but confidence that Thompson was ready for this opportunity with Tagovailoa out at least four games while on injured reserve. They said he improved leaps and bounds from when he had to fill in for Tagovailoa as a rookie, noted his experience in the system and trumpeted how he won over teammates to win the backup job this preseason. 

Instead, Thompson once again looked far out of his depth. He was tentative, pulling the ball back too often instead of letting it fly, and was painfully oblivious to incoming pass rushers. He took so many shots in Week 3 that it unfortunately wasn’t a surprise that he was eventually knocked out with a chest injury. 

Now the Dolphins are left with only Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley, neither of whom were even on the team during training camp. That would be a major concern in any NFL offense, but especially Miami’s complicated system. Maybe Thompson’s chest injury isn’t serious but very little about how he played Sunday inspired confidence he can keep things afloat for the Dolphins. Worst of all, it’s not clear when — or even if — Tagovailoa will return. 

Miami felt like a team that knew the wheels were coming off on Sunday. They were flagged 11 times and it was the first time I’ve seen HC Mike McDaniel losing his cool on the sideline. The criticism of the Dolphins the past few years is they look good early in the year, but wither under adversity. Well, the adversity is striking in September this time, and it’s up to McDaniel to steady things because this looks like a situation that could careen wildly off the rails. 

Verdict: Panic

Rookie QB Growing Pains

The debut of Texans QB C.J. Stroud last year might have ruined the grading curve for rookie quarterbacks. Stroud was a top-ten quarterback almost from the jump and piloted Houston to an AFC South title and a playoff win. That led to big expectations for this year’s crop of rookies, particularly because the 2024 draft tied the NFL record with six first-round passers. Three started from the jump — Bears QB Caleb Williams, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and Broncos QB Bo Nix. 

All three had some hype coming into this year. Chicago crowed that it had built the best supporting environment for a No. 1 pick maybe ever, as the Bears had the benefit of getting the pick via trade from Carolina, not because their roster was No. 1-caliber. Washington raved about Daniels’ dual-threat skillset and pro-ready mentality. Nix’s record number of college starts and strong preseason numbers had many thinking the Broncos rookie was ready to hit the ground running. 

Instead, none of the trio had a touchdown pass through two weeks, with Williams finally getting on the board in Week 3. Pending Daniels’ game tonight against the Bengals, the rooks have just a 2-6 record so far. 

Historically speaking, that’s not out of the norm for rookies. There weren’t particularly high expectations in Denver and Washington this year either, so a 2-3 record combined between them is about in line with team expectations. For rookie quarterbacks, all teams are looking for is improvement over the course of the season and flashes of why they belong in the NFL. 

So far Daniels is checking that box, with no interceptions in two starts. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown but his dynamic rushing ability from college has translated with 132 yards and two touchdowns. Nix made progress Sunday after a rough first two starts, improving his completion percentage and avoiding turnovers — not coincidentally getting his first career win in the process. Even if the numbers aren’t glamorous, both are on track. 

Things are different in Chicago, where the expectations were much higher. The offense has not gotten off the ground yet and were it not for a blocked punt and one of the worst pick-sixes of the decade in Week 1 against the Titans, the Bears would be 0-3. Williams has completed 70 of 118 pass attempts (59.3 percent) for 630 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s also taken 13 sacks, which gets into the conversation about Williams’ supporting cast. 

The Bears were so optimistic not only because of Williams’ talent — as a prospect he was viewed in the same class as guys like Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck — but because they thought they had a stacked team around Williams that would prevent the pitfalls rookie quarterbacks can sometimes fall into on bad teams. Much of that optimism revolved around a receiving corps featuring D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and first-rounder Rome Odunze, plus other talented complementary pieces like RB D’Andre Swift, TE Cole Kmet and TE Gerald Everett. New OC Shane Waldron was supposed to pull it all together after a solid past two years with the Seahawks. 

There wasn’t as much conversation about the offensive line, partially because the Bears had made some significant investments last year in free agent G Nate Davis and first-round RT Darnell Wright. There was an assumption the group would just improve with more time on task. Instead, it’s been the Achilles heel of the whole team. Some of those 13 sacks are on Williams holding the ball but far fewer than you’d expect, as his time to throw is around league average. In another damning stroke, the Bears have been completely ineffective running the ball. Swift is averaging under two yards per carry and none of the other backs have been much better. 

Allen has missed the last two weeks with a heel injury, dinging the receiving corps further. Waldron hasn’t found a rhythm with his skill players either, or a combination on the offensive line that works, which has just led to an overall offensive morass in Chicago. Until and unless that improves, Williams’ situation won’t be all that different from other former No. 1 overall picks. 

As far as Williams’ outlook specifically, there are still some signs within the poor numbers that point to better days ahead. Williams is already in charge of setting the protections, which is something several veteran quarterbacks don’t even do. For example, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts just took on that responsibility this year. In Week 2, the Texans’ defense was absolutely teeing off on Williams for seven sacks and nearly three times that many hits. But Williams’ decision-making didn’t deteriorate even as he was getting pounded, and his mistakes in the game were more in line with the typical rookie learning curve of figuring out what throws are possible against NFL defenses. 

Even this week, Williams finally got on the board with two touchdown passes and topped 350 yards passing, albeit while chasing a big deficit against the Colts. He still looks like he has a bright future but the Bears have a lot of work to do around him still no matter how good this team looked on paper in July. 

Verdict: Don’t panic about the rookies…but the Bears’ playoff hopes are fair game

WTF Will? 

The Titans lost for the third straight week on Sunday, falling in a blowout to the Packers and former QB Malik Willis. For the third straight week, Titans QB Will Levis not only didn’t play well, he was so bad he inspired memes. 

The generational run for Will Levis continues pic.twitter.com/iOeRjh9J1o

— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) September 22, 2024

Turnovers and terrible decisions are two unfortunate themes that have emerged in Levis’ game so far. He threw two more interceptions — including his second pick-six of the season — and lost a fumble in Week 3 to give him an NFL-leading seven turnovers in three weeks. He also was battered for eight sacks to take his total to 15. The Titans’ leaky offensive line bears responsibility for some of those hits, but Levis’ penchant to hold onto the ball way too long to try and make something happen is also at fault. 

If Levis was just getting some unlucky bounces or exclusively being let down by the offensive line, the story would be different. But too many of the poor situations Levis and the Titans have found themselves in are a direct result of poor decisions made by Levis, trying to flip the ball while falling down in scenarios where even if he is successful, there’s minimal upside to be had. It infamously prompted HC Brian Callahan to ask Levis after a fumble last week “WTF are you doing?” 

The brain-dead decision-making has overshadowed some of the other good things Levis has done despite the awful start to the season for the Titans. For instance, he only misfired on eight of 34 pass attempts against the Packers. And for what it’s worth, the Titans don’t seem to be soured on Levis yet, supporting him yesterday after there were questions about his job security. 

That patience won’t last forever, though. In theory, all Levis has to do is cut out the dumb decisions. His standing with the team will improve and the Titans will almost assuredly win more games. There’s even precedent in the NFL with how Bills QB Josh Allen developed from his first couple of seasons. 

But it’s clear Levis has some deeply ingrained habits that come out when he feels the pressure of the game weighing heavy. Callahan even mentioned after Week 1 he was surprised at the version of Levis that came out, as he hadn’t seen him during practice. It’s also not a good sign that this has likely been a point of emphasis since Week 1 and Levis is still making the same mistakes…

Verdict: Bad habits are hard to break…

1-2 Crew: Browns/Giants

The 1-1 Browns took on the 0-2 Giants in a game where the loser was assured to feel miserable about the outlook of the season and the winner got to avert disaster talk for a week. The Giants jumped out to a big lead in the first half and held on for the victory, granting a temporary injunction against job security speculation for QB Daniel Jones — though with a matchup against the Cowboys looming on Thursday night. 

Instead, we get to talk again about how bad Browns QB Deshaun Watson looked. The offense once again put a lot on Watson’s shoulders, as they’ve designed the whole system around what his strengths supposedly are. And once again Watson was horribly inefficient, completing 21 of 37 pass attempts for 196 yards, though he did manage to finally connect with WR Amari Cooper for a pair of touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception but lost a critical fourth-quarter fumble and took a staggering eight sacks. 

This was against a Giants defense that was shredded by Vikings QB Sam Darnold in Week 1 and failed to force the Commanders to punt while letting up seven scoring drives in Week 2. Cleveland couldn’t muster any consistent offense because the run game has taken a step back for various reasons and Watson is a streaky passer. Entering the game he was last in the NFL in success rate at just 25 percent of his dropbacks, and Sunday’s performance likely didn’t improve the numbers much if at all. 

The Browns have been steadfast that it’s just a matter of time until Watson recaptures his form and have claimed they’ve seen “flashes” of the ability that made him one of the game’s top young quarterbacks once upon a time. But the “when” continues to loom larger and larger. Watson is in his third year in Cleveland, all under the same offense under HC Kevin Stefanski who has continued to tweak the system more and more to his quarterback’s liking. The Giants were about as beatable an opponent as you could hope for, and the game was even at home. 

At some point, Watson just has to do it for more than “flashes.” And the longer it takes, the more likely it seems that this is just who he is at this point in his career. 

Verdict: Panic

49ers battling the Super Bowl hangover 

While both the 49ers and the Rams were dramatically shorthanded due to injuries this past Sunday, the injury gods dealt a tougher hand to Los Angeles and San Francisco still presented a formidable matchup. This felt like a get-right game for the 49ers coming off an unexpected loss to the Vikings the prior week. Through two-and-a-half quarters, that looked to be the case with San Francisco holding a 21-7 lead.

Then the Rams put it together and started swinging back. Rams RB Kyren Williams punched in two short scores, the defense forced two field goal attempts, one of which 49ers K Jake Moody missed, and Rams sixth-round K Joshua Karty hit his two field goals, including the game-winner with two seconds left on the clock. 

When the dust all settled, the 49ers were left at 1-2 and in last place in the NFC West, two games behind the 3-0 Seahawks. Not the start the team imagined for itself in their attempted redemption season after losing the Super Bowl. 

Instead, this feels like a classic Super Bowl hangove. The 49ers had to say goodbye to several contributing players to their success last season, then were in protracted contract standoffs with others like RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Brandon Aiyuk and LT Trent Williams. McCaffrey is on injured reserve with Achilles tendinitis, and both WR Deebo Samuel and TE George Kittle have been knocked out with soft tissue injuries in the last week. Aiyuk looks rusty after missing all of camp in his contract standoff, and Williams has had moments too where his summer absence showed. On top of that, this is as weak as the 49ers have been on the line of scrimmage in a few years now, with multiple offensive linemen struggling and a run defense that’s started to spring leaks. 

There’s no question the 49ers have lost a lot of their margin for error. That said, there are still a lot of reasons to be in on this team. They’re banged up at the skill positions now, but eventually McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle should all be back in the lineup and Aiyuk will knock off the rust. Once that happens, the experience current breakout players like RB Jordan Mason and WR Jauan Jennings have will make the offense even more dangerous. 49ers QB Brock Purdy has played well outside of Week 2 against the Vikings (and that defense has flummoxed every quarterback it’s played this year, with Stroud and the Texans the most recent victim). 

There are also five more division games for the 49ers to make up ground, and still plenty of talent on defense to keep things afloat even if the unit isn’t the best in the league anymore. More injuries could change things, but at this point, I would not be shorting the 49ers too much. 

Verdict: Don’t panic, help is on the way