In a devastating blow for the Indianapolis Colts, starting QB Daniel Jones tore his Achilles early in Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars, ending his season. Jones was already playing through a fractured fibula in his other leg, and though he wasn’t playing quite as well on it, he was gutting it out for his team.

His injury leaves the Colts at 8-5, currently outside looking in at an extremely competitive AFC playoff picture when just weeks ago they were 8-2 and vying for a first-round bye. Jones’ injury doesn’t just wreck this year, though. One torn Achilles turned what was a clear path forward for the Colts upside down. After trading two first-round picks for CB Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline with the intention of signing Jones to a long-term deal this offseason, Indianapolis finds itself at an unexpected and unwelcome crossroads. What will the Colts do?

What’s Next For Indy This Year?

With former first-round QB Anthony Richardson on IR, the Colts were forced to turn to sixth-round QB Riley Leonard against the Jags, to predictably poor results. Leonard would seem to be the one to finish out the season, except now he’s also dealing with a knee injury. Brett Rypien is on the team’s practice squad and is the only other quarterback on the roster. Even if Leonard was healthy, expect Indianapolis to add someone to their quarterback room in the short term.

The options for the Colts on the free agent market are extremely limited, as you might expect in December. Desmond Ridder spent some time with the Colts during minicamp early in the offseason, so he has a little experience with the team. Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Taylor Heinicke are some other options with relatively recent playing experience. The Colts are working out 44-year-old former QB Philip Rivers, which would be a different kind of Hail Mary to try and save the season. Rivers hasn’t played since 2020. 

Alternatively, there are some intriguing options on other teams’ practice squads, including Trevor Siemian, Mike White, Kyle Trask, C.J. Beathard, Adrian Martinez, Sam Ehlinger and Will Grier. The most interesting name on that list is Ehlinger, a fifth-year pro out of Texas who spent the first four years of his career in Indianapolis. He started a couple of games for the Colts back in 2022 and was a valuable part of the organization during his time there, and the coaching staff is already familiar with him.

Players can be signed straight from other practice squads even after the trade deadline has passed, so if the Colts want to bring in Ehlinger (or another quarterback currently sitting on a practice squad) they can do so immediately. Players have to agree but the chance to play that the Colts are offering will be attractive. 

As for Richardson, his return timeline is unknown, but it’s possible he could return for the last game or two of the season. At that point, it will likely be too late for Indy to salvage their playoff hopes (the Colts play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans to close the season), but there would still be a lot on the line for both him and the team as they look ahead to 2026.

What Is Jones’ Recovery Timeline?

The average Achilles rehab takes six to nine months post-surgery. However, this timeline can vary. The foot is placed in a cast for the first couple of weeks after surgery and then for a few weeks after that, rehab involves slowly placing more body weight upon the affected leg as it continues to heal. By six to eight weeks post-op, balance exercises begin, and four to six months into recovery is when basic jogging and light on-field work begin.

Full training ramps back up after that and it’s why recovery timelines can be so different player to player. Athletes put their Achilles tendons through far more stress than the average person, frequently putting enormous strain on them through sharp cuts and jumps. A player won’t be cleared to return to practice until they can go through all of their usual on-field activity with no restrictions. What that looks like for each player will vary, as will how their body is responding and the general healing pace.

Because the Achilles tendon is attached directly to the calf muscles, athletes often lose power and motion in that leg even after a full recovery. NBA star Kevin Durant said his calf muscle is now permanently shorter after tearing his right Achilles. High-level athletes often need more time than the standard “six to nine months” that you hear, especially to return to full strength and their prior performance level.

The good news for Jones is that as a quarterback, he can still be a positive asset even if his leg never returns to full strength. He won’t put his Achilles through the same intense stress that skill position players and especially linemen do. Still, mobility is a big part of Jones’ game, and we saw his performance dip over the last few games when he was hampered by the fractured fibula in his other leg. If he’s not able to move the way he used to, he’s likely a far less efficient quarterback.

Optimistically, Jones could be ready for the start of the 2026 season, but it’s extremely unlikely he’ll be ready to do any team work in training camp. He might not look like the quarterback the Colts have come to expect until 2027.

How Does Jones’ Injury Impact Contract Talks With The Colts?

If there’s a silver lining in this for the Colts, it’s that Jones’ injury should drastically reduce his market next offseason. It’s a devastating blow for a player who was heading toward a hefty mid-tier quarterback contract, but the potential bidding war between Indy and teams like Minnesota and Pittsburgh likely won’t materialize the way it was previously expected to.

The team most comfortable investing in Jones coming off that injury will be the Colts. They’ll have the most information on how his recovery and rehab is going, as well as his prospects for playing next season. If the Colts are hesitant to re-sign him, other teams may take that as an indication Jones may not play next year.

Before his injury, I think Jones was trending towards a contract similar to the ones Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are on. Both were seen as quality starters who can win a lot of games but aren’t considered franchise-altering talents you need to lock down at all costs, and that’s a fair assessment of how Jones looked pre-injury. Those contracts sit around three years and $100 million, with about half that guaranteed.

Now, however, Jones could be looking at another one-year deal — if he plays at all. Right now, he’s on a one-year, $14 million contract, and I’d expect Indy to be able to re-sign him to a similar deal. Jones would then enter next season in essentially the same position he was in this year, but with a lot more trust from the Colts should his injury recovery go well.

Do The Colts Have Other Options?

Without a first-round pick until 2028, not many. Not that this is a strong quarterback class — Richardson would be a much better starting option next year than anyone Indianapolis could have drafted in the middle of the first round — but trading away that pick means the Colts have one less option than they would have otherwise.

Free agency is usually pretty bare when it comes to quarterbacks, but Indy did sign Jones in free agency after all. Marcus Mariota, Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett are some pending free agents who could be in play for the Colts if they target someone to come in and compete for the job under the assumption Jones isn’t ready to start the season. None of those names inspire much excitement, though.

The most realistic trade target might be 49ers QB Mac Jones. The former first-round pick of the Patriots has since spent time in Jacksonville and San Francisco with solid success. This season, in particular, he stepped in for an injured Brock Purdy and helped guide the 49ers to a 9-4 record, all while comfortably running HC Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

Quarterback redemption projects are in vogue right now. Everyone looking for the next Mayfield, Darnold, or Daniel Jones will be eyeing Mac Jones, and that may include the Colts. He’s under contract for one more year with the Niners, and they might collect a pretty prize for their backup quarterback.

Alternatively, Indy could swing bigger. Kyler Murray is on the outs in Arizona and has all but officially played his last snap for the Cardinals. The former No. 1 overall pick is dealing with a foot injury and is out for the rest of the season, and it’s basically an open secret that the Cardinals want to move on.

His contract is pretty hefty, but his talent is undeniable. Making a move for Murray — whether the Colts trade for him or wait out the Cardinals to sign him if (when?) he gets cut — would all but end Jones’ chances of re-signing in Indianapolis. But the upside with a move like this is high. It was only a few years ago that Murray was an MVP candidate leading the Cardinals to the playoffs.

Then there’s Richardson. The former No. 4 overall pick in 2023 has battled numerous injuries in his short NFL career, and he’s currently on IR with a broken orbital bone, suffered during pre-game warmups when a resistance belt broke and a piece of the machine hit him in the face. It was a freak accident, but it adds yet another extended injury absence to his ledger.

In the past, Richardson hasn’t been consistent enough down-to-down to run an effective offense. The big plays have always been there, but he’s barely above a 50-percent completion percentage for his career. That just doesn’t fly in the NFL, and it’s why the Colts pursued Jones in free agency to compete with him for the starting job.

Richardson put a lot of work into improving his mechanics this offseason and it seemed to pay off, as reports from Colts training camp indicated the battle between Jones and Richardson was extremely close. At the time, that didn’t mean much, but given how well Jones played, it’s at least possible Richardson took a meaningful leap this offseason. If so, it may change how the Colts approach next year.

Building off that, Richardson had a strong preseason in limited action, going 8/13 for 94 yards in two appearances, adding one rush attempt for nine yards. He was expected to be a strong trade candidate in the spring, but Jones’ injury likely changes that outlook.

It’s possible Richardson still gets traded, especially if Jones’ recovery is ahead of schedule and the Colts bring in a different backup they like. But given Jones won’t participate in training camp, I doubt Indianapolis would be comfortable giving up both their investment and insurance policy in Richardson for a fifth-round pick or equivalent.

What Will The Colts Do?

The Colts essentially have two main paths to choose from next year, and their decision will hinge on how Jones’ recovery is progressing. Nine months from now is the beginning of September, so it’s possible he’s ready to go at the start of next season, or at least close to it.

If Jones is tracking on that timeline, the Colts are probably fine with Richardson starting a couple of games until Jones is ready to go. They would re-sign Jones to a one-year deal and sign a veteran backup like Tyrod Taylor or Gardner Minshew, rolling into training camp with Richardson and the vet as the depth chart while Jones works his way back. If Richardson is lighting it up, they can continue to ride the hot hand and not rush Jones back into the lineup — otherwise, Jones plays as soon as he’s able.

In a sense, that would be pretty straightforward, and it’s the scenario the Colts will be hoping for. This season may turn into a lost season due to the injury, but as long as Jones can play most of next season, Indy can feel good about their plan moving forward.

If Jones won’t be able to play most of next season, that’s where it gets more complicated (and interesting). And Indy’s decision-making process will be determined by their evaluation of Richardson. If they like where Richardson’s development is at, they can bring in some competition (like Mac Jones) to push him and provide insurance while giving their top investment one last chance to prove he can be the long-term starter. Bringing in someone like Jones also ensures that they have a quality starter on the roster, and Jones could even win the job outright out of camp (and might be favored to), much like Daniel Jones was this past summer.

However, my guess is the Colts would pursue Murray. This team has a win-now mentality, as evidenced by their 7-1 start and aggressive move at the trade deadline. Steichen’s offense has a high floor and it’s one of the most efficient units in the league with competent quarterback play. This team, this staff and this organization wants to win now, and Murray would offer them the best chance to do that.

Will Murray run the offense as well as Jones did? That’s an unknown, but there’s one way to find out. The main flaw in Murray’s game is his documented struggles attacking the middle of the field, one of the primary ways Steichen’s offense functions. Still, he’s extremely talented, and Steichen is smart enough to tailor his offense to the quarterback running it.

While this season might already be over for the Colts, they actually do have a few options for next year. There’s a chance they’re right back in the mix in the AFC South in 2026.