2023 NFLTR Top 100 Players: 20-11

By
Logan Ulrich
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Every summer, the NFL releases a list of the top 100 NFL players as voted on by the players, supposedly. And every summer, the results kick up their fair amount of controversy. 

So we figured we’d chime in with our take again. Last year was the first year of the NFLTR Top 100, using a rigorous process that factored in basic and advanced stats, awards, career trajectory, positional value and of course the highly scientific gut check. This year we’re back with the 2023 NFLTR Top 100 Players.

We’ll be rolling these out over the rest of the summer to pass the time until training camp, so be sure to keep an eye out for the rest of the list!

Also, here are some links to explanations for some of the non-traditional statistics used to assess players: 

20: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

For the second straight year, the season ended for Jackson and the Ravens with a whole lot of “what ifs?” Jackson missed the last six games of the season, including the wildcard playoff loss to the Bengals, due to injury. Before going down and before other injuries to the offense, he looked like a legitimate MVP candidate. He was responsible for 12 total touchdowns in the first three games. He and the rest of the offense lost a little bit of steam from that torrid pace but Jackson continued to play quarterback at a high level until his knee injury. 

PFF has several notable stats from charting Jackson last season that show how well he was playing. He had a big-time throw percentage of 5.0 percent, tied for fifth-best out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks. His turnover-worthy play percentage of 2.3 percent was fifth-best and Jackson was the only quarterback to finish in the top five of both metrics. Jackson was also battling inconsistencies with his supporting cast, who dropped nine percent of his throws — the second-highest mark in the NFL. 

Jackson remains an elite and dangerous threat as a runner. He has two thousand-yard seasons under his belt and has been on track for two more before getting knocked out the past two years. His ability as a passer has always flown under the radar but that could change with new OC Todd Monken. Former OC Greg Roman deserves a lot of credit for Jackson and the Ravens’ success over the past few years but sometimes change is necessary for growth. With his contract situation resolved and no longer hanging over the team like a dark cloud, Jackson is free to focus on taking the next step and turning those flashes of passing ability into more consistent high-level play.

19: Bills WR Stefon Diggs

There are six receivers still left on the list and honestly you could make a strong case for any of them to be No. 1. Since Diggs arrived in Buffalo via trade three seasons ago, ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics have him rated as the No. 1 overall pass catcher in football — and funny enough tied with the player the Vikings got back in that trade, WR Justin Jefferson. 

Diggs is fourth in the NFL in receiving yardage in the last three years with 4,189 yards. He’s tied for first in receptions with Raiders WR Davante Adams at 338 and has 29 touchdowns, which is sixth. Last year, Diggs tied for the NFL lead with 62 targets against man coverage, catching 37 for 529 yards and four touchdowns. Targets are earned, so that in and of itself speaks to Diggs’ talent level. 

For as much as Bills QB Josh Allen has improved, it’s probably not a coincidence that his biggest jump coincided with Diggs’ arrival as a true No. 1 receiver, who is one of the best route runners in the NFL. 

18: Rams WR Cooper Kupp

Kupp didn’t repeat his Triple Crown season from 2021, which was one of the best single seasons ever for a wide receiver. But until he was hurt and shut down in a lost season for the Rams, he was working on a respectable follow-up. He had 75 receptions for 812 yards and six touchdowns in nine games. Those averages of 8.3 receptions per game and 90.2 yards per game are easily the second-highest of his career. You have to be careful prorating smaller sample sizes out because that’s not how the NFL works. But if we give Kupp 15 games at that average, that’s 125 receptions, 1,350 yards and 10 touchdowns. That’s a career year for most players. 

What’s so impressive about Kupp’s production the past two years is that he’s been by far the most dangerous weapon on offense for the Rams and someone everyone knows is getting the ball. Yet opposing defenses haven’t been able to stop him and only on rare occasions does a team even contain him. Kupp isn’t an imposing athlete, as he ran just a 4.62-second 40-yard dash coming out of Eastern Washington. He has outstanding quickness, sticky hands and an innate understanding of how to play the receiver position and get open almost regardless of the circumstances. 

Kupp doesn’t blow you away in some of ESPN’s advanced receiver tracking metrics, at least not last season. His best attribute was his catch score which at 63 ranked 27th among 111 qualifying receivers and tight ends. Kupp’s overall score ranked 36th. But the production speaks for itself. Kupp also brings a lot of value to the Rams for his versatility as a blocker, which considering how much they live in three-receiver sets is crucial to how they want to run HC Sean McVay‘s offense. 

17: Raiders DE Maxx Crosby

2022 was the second year in which Crosby played just out of his mind good, and he’s developed into the caliber of player who could be a future defensive player of the year in the right circumstances. Last year, we were high on Crosby in this space despite only finishing the season with eight sacks because of how terrific his other disruption numbers were. This year, he had both, notching a career-high 12.5 sacks and ranking fourth in the NFL with 81 total pressures, per PFF. Crosby recorded 22 QB hits which was the second-highest sum among edge rushers.

He also rated extremely well in Brandon Thorn’s True Pressure Rate analysis for the Trench Warfare substack, which is a charting process that looks at how the top edge rushers are compiling their production with the understanding that not all pressures are equal. Crosby had the fifth-best pressure quality ratio, with 1.65 high-quality pressures for every low-quality one, and the sixth-best snaps per high-quality pressure. 

In addition to all of this, Crosby was a force against the run. He led the NFL with 20 tackles for loss and forced three fumbles. ESPN ranked Crosby No. 2 in the NFL among edge rushers in run stop win rate at 33 percent. PFF credited him with 41 stops, most for all edge rushers, and a stop rate of 10 percent that was the fifth-best of any edge rusher. 

16: Eagles RT Lane Johnson

There’s a lot of competition for the dumbest opinion of the week on the Internet these days but the NFC executive who dragged Johnson as a product of Philadelphia’s RPO-heavy offense and probably put him outside the top ten in ESPN’s tackle rankings is a strong contender. Johnson is and has been one of the best tackles in football, full stop, and should be a future Hall of Fame player when he decides to retire. 

ESPN had Johnson with the No. 1 pass block win rate of any tackle in 2022 at 95 percent. He was No. 2 among all tackles in PFF’s pass-blocking grade and gave up only 11 pressures all season. His true pass set efficiency of 98.5 percent was second-best in the NFL behind only Bucs OT Tristan Wirfs. The most impressive stat though is this — Johnson hasn’t allowed a sack in the last two seasons. 

15: Raiders WR Davante Adams

Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is still a firm believer that his former top receiver is the best at his position in the NFL, specifically because of his route running. In that way, Adams has a lot of similarities to Kupp in that he’s not necessarily an elite athlete (though he’s a lot more athletic than Kupp), but he wins by having an elite natural understanding of how to get open.

Adams is a master of setting cornerbacks up at the line to uncover downfield. No one in the NFL in the last three years has more than his 338 receptions, and no one has pulled in more touchdowns than his 43 spikes from 2020-2022. His 4,443 receiving yards rank second among all players in that timeframe, including 1,516 yards on 100 catches with a league-leading 14 touchdowns in 2022 in his first year with the Raiders. His open score of 81 was tied for ninth-best among 111 qualifying receivers and tight ends. 

Adams’ first year in Las Vegas wasn’t without bumps, as his catch percentage dipped to 55.6 percent even though he was peppered with 180 targets. It was the first time since his first two seasons that his catch percentage fell below 60 percent. It’ll be interesting to see how Adams meshes with new QB Jimmy Garoppolo, as at least former QB Derek Carr was more willing to sling it deep and had played with Adams before. He’s good enough, though, for Adams to maintain his outstanding level of productivity as long as everyone stays healthy. 

14: Chargers QB Justin Herbert

The narratives around Herbert can get a little silly because he’s only made the playoffs once and has yet to win a playoff game. For fans and talk show hosts, that’s easy fodder. Meanwhile back in reality, Herbert is one of the game’s brightest young stars and one of the most talented quarterbacks playing right now. He has everything you could want: accuracy, arm strength, mental acuity, size, mobility, you name it. Herbert is the least of the Chargers’ problems. Their biggest one might be that they play in the same division as Patrick Mahomes. 

Two factors combined to limit Herbert’s statistical production in 2022. The first was a rib injury he picked up early in the season. He didn’t miss any time but it was a painful injury that seemed to limit him at times, especially as a rusher. He had 54 attempts for only 147 yards and no touchdowns. Herbert’s scramble rate dropped to 2.9 percent from 4.8 and 3.8 percent the prior two years. It’s possible the injury also contributed to his depth of target falling a full yard from 7.9 to 6.9, though his time to throw remained virtually the same which doesn’t indicate an emphasis on getting the ball out quicker. 

Instead, it’s more likely because of the second major limiting factor for Herbert, OC Joe Lombardi‘s offense. Lombardi’s scheme took a lot of criticism for being stale and too focused on short routes, especially considering Herbert has a massive arm to stretch opposing defenses. It’s like having a sportscar and never turning it loose out on the highway. Herbert had 23 batted passes which was most in the league. His ADOT was third-lowest in the NFL, behind only Giants QB Daniel Jones and former Colts QB Matt Ryan. 

Herbert had a big-time throw percentage of 3.1 percent, 29th out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks per PFF. On the positive side, his turnover-worth play percentage was the best in the NFL at 1.7 percent. Herbert did what he was asked to do at a solid level, he just wasn’t asked to do nearly what he was capable of. The hope is with new OC Kellen Moore, that will change. 

13: Chiefs DT Chris Jones

Aaron Donald‘s place in NFL history is secure at this point with his remarkable career of accomplishments, but in 2022 he wasn’t the best defensive tackle in the NFL. Jones was. The star Chiefs pass rusher led everyone at his position with 15.5 sacks and tied for the fourth-most sacks of any player last season. It was the second time Jones has hit 15.5 sacks in his career. He added 17 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and four pass deflections in a dominant season. 

https://twitter.com/BradHensonPro/status/1679882782686814208?s=20

Jones’ 97 total pressures per PFF were 27 more than the next closest player. His pass-rush productivity rating of 8.2 wasn’t nearly as far ahead of the pack but it was still best in the NFL, as was his 18.2 percent win rate. ESPN gave him a pass rush win rate of 21 percent, also far and away the best among defensive tackles in 2022. And while the Chiefs aren’t about to pay Jones nearly $30 million a year for his run defense, he graded out as PFF’s second-best defensive tackle in that phase of the game in 2022. 

12: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce

Kelce owns the NFL record for most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons by a tight end and he’s been adding to it for a few years now. Right now he’s up to seven, which is also the number of times he’s been named an All-Pro. In 2022, Kelce took over as the No. 1 pass-catching threat for Kansas City and turned 33 years old. He had no issues with the age or extra attention, though, catching 110 passes on 152 targets for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. In ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics, Kelce had the 10th-best overall score of any player, tight end or receiver, in 2022, including a 78 open score, 65 catch score and 50 YAC score that were all in the upper tier. 

Tight ends are some of the best athletes on the field and Kelce is no exception. Listed at 6-5 and 256 pounds, he’s a tough cover for defenses to match up to. He’s big enough to bully most defenders, but also fast, agile and crafty. He changes direction effortlessly for someone so big, and it leads to some terrific plays where he chews up yards after the catch, like this game-winner against the Chargers. 

What makes him so unstoppable at this point, however, is his connection with Mahomes. The two see the game the same way and it enables these wild adjustments on the fly, like this back shoulder corner route where the two see the defender is taking away the sideline during the play and react. Had the defender played it normally, Mahomes would have just lofted it to Kelce’s other shoulder, making it a true lose-lose situation. This is the type of connection between a quarterback and receiver that becomes virtually impossible to stop. 

11: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill

Kansas City gambled that it could trade Hill and more or less be okay, even if there’s no way to truly replace a player like Hill. The Chiefs instead evolved to become less reliant on the deep shot without Hill’s blinding speed stretching the defense, and it was arguably a necessary evolution given the hiccups the offense ran into in 2021 and the success they had in 2022 culminating in a Super Bowl win. 

Hill did just fine in his new home in Miami, though. His speed became an X-factor for a breakout Dolphins offense just like it had been for the Chiefs. On 170 targets, Hill racked up 119 receptions for 1,710 yards and eight total touchdowns. Both the receptions and yardage were career highs. With that prolific season, Hill jumped all the way up to third in the NFL in receiving yardage over the past three seasons with 4,225 yards. In ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics, Hill ironically tied with Kelce as the 10th-best overall score, with an open score of 85 that tied for fifth-best in the league. 

The speed is of course Hill’s unique trait that sets him apart, but there are plenty of really fast NFL players who fail to do anything more than tease because they’re still better sprinters than football players. Hill is the rare exception in that he’s just as good of a football player as he is a fast human. He can take hits, run routes and catch through contact. Miami has two of those unicorn players in Hill and WR Jaylen Waddle, which is one of a number of factors that make the Dolphins an intriguing team heading into the 2023 season. 

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