Extreme Makeover: Salary Cap Edition – Buffalo Bills

This is the third article in a six-part series looking at the teams who are currently projected to be $20 million or more in the red in cap space for 2024, and the path forward for them to get under the cap. 

The full list of teams includes: 

• New Orleans Saints: -$98.7 million
• Los Angeles Chargers: -$57.3 million
• Buffalo Bills: -$52.7 million
• Miami Dolphins: -$51.3 million
• Denver Broncos: -$26.8 million 
• Dallas Cowboys: -$21.4 million

While we don’t have a formal projection for the 2024 cap yet, it’s safe to say that number will end up north of $240 million, growing by more than $16 million for the second consecutive year.

Before we dive into the Bills, here are some quick salary cap-related notes and definitions, as this can be a complicated subject. 

• Salary cap: The cap is the maximum any NFL team can spend on player salaries. Essentially, every team gets the same pie and can choose how to split it up, with various accounting mechanisms to manipulate how much cap space is available in any given year. 
• Dead Money: A term for money that has already been paid to a player and will count against a team’s salary cap no matter what. Most of the time this comes from signing bonuses, either from when a deal is initially signed or from restructures. When a player is cut, all the dead money remaining on their contract accelerates to the current year. 
• Restructure: An accounting trick teams can use to manage the cap in a given year. Signing bonus money is always prorated (spread equally) over the remaining years of a contract. That means teams can convert all but the minimum of a player’s base salary to a signing bonus and reduce the cap hit at the expense of increasing dead money in future years. 
• June 1 designation: Another accounting trick for teams — after June 1 when a player is cut the dead money is split over two years instead of all accelerating to the current year. Teams can designate two players per year as “June 1 cuts” and cut them before that date without the dead money hit, although they don’t get the resulting cap savings until after that date either. 
• Void years: Essentially “dummy” years that are added onto a deal, usually to help spread out the cap hits with restructures. They are not actual contract years that teams or players are required to fulfill. 

If you’re a visual learner like me, Over The Cap’s team cap calculator is a handy little tool to play around with and get a sense of how all of these terms and numbers shake out in real life. I leaned on it heavily when breaking down the cap situations and path forward for these teams. 

With the homework out of the way, let’s get into it…

Buffalo Bills: -$52.7 million

This upcoming offseason will be critical for the Buffalo Bills as they try to keep their Super Bowl window open. Everything they’ve done over the past two years has been geared toward trying to keep this team at the top of the AFC, and by that measure the Bills might have already failed by sinking into the wildcard mix. Even with this past week’s domination of the Cowboys, Buffalo is still in danger of missing the postseason unless it can take care of business over the next three weeks. 

Bills GM Brandon Beane has to knock it out of the park this offseason and he does not have a lot of margin for error. The first task will be clearing more than $50 million of cap space to get under the cap, plus whatever budget they need to make additions in free agency. Restructuring QB Josh Allen’s contract saves $23 million against the cap in 2024 and it should be an easy decision. It’s a huge chunk of potential flexibility, and the whole team is built around Allen anyway. 

There probably won’t be very many other easy decisions for Beane. He has to figure out the future of two players who are supposed to be superstars and core players on each side of the ball, WR Stefon Diggs and DE Von Miller. Outside of Allen, those two have the biggest current cap hits in 2024. 

The Diggs Dilemma

In the case of Diggs, there was some instability this past offseason that’s worth keeping in mind as it relates to his future in Buffalo. Is he still happy and does he want to keep catching passes from Allen? Did firing OC Ken Dorsey take away the problems he seemed to have with the offense in the spring, and will he be on board with the new hire? He’s still highly productive but he’s on the other side of 30, so how long can the Bills expect him to remain a top wideout? 

If all of those questions are answered, it’s hard to see Diggs someplace else. His $18.5 million 2024 base salary becomes guaranteed on March 19, and if the Bills keep him it makes sense to restructure that for over $13 million in savings. 

It’s also worth pointing out that Diggs’ contract shouldn’t scuttle any potential trade market if that’s how things shake out. The Raiders gave up a haul for WR Davante Adams at a similar point in his career. If the Bills did trade Diggs, they’d probably have to turn right around and invest those assets into trying to replace him, especially because No. 2 WR Gabriel Davis is also a pending free agent. But for now, let’s pencil Diggs into Buffalo’s plans for 2024. 

Goodbye Von?

Miller already has $10.7 million of his $17 million 2024 compensation guaranteed and the rest will be guaranteed at the start of the new league year. It’s the result of Buffalo being so desperate to land him as a free agent ahead of the 2021 season that they agreed to guarantee three years of salary for him, the final concession that pried him away from the Rams. It was a clear gamble at the time for Miller who was already 32 and it’s fair to say it hasn’t played out how the Bills hoped. He had eight sacks in 11 games in 2022 before tearing his ACL, and while he’s played nine games this season he has yet to record a sack. 

To make matters worse, there have been issues off the field. An arrest warrant for domestic violence was issued for Miller at the end of last month. The details are disturbing, and Miller has a history of volatile behavior with what appears to be the same woman who is currently pregnant with their third child. For now, she’s not pressing charges, which means there’s not a lot authorities or the NFL will do. A suspension would void the remaining guarantees in Miller’s deal and allow Buffalo to cut him with no remaining obligations. 

The team could still cut Miller with a June 1 designation before the rest of his salary guarantees, leaving them with a $17 million dead cap hit this year and another $15 million-plus in 2025. The longer Miller is ineffective on the field, the more likely that outcome looks. 

Cap Casualty Candidates

There are other hard decisions the Bills will need to make with key starters whose salary might not justify their current production anymore. Former starting CB Tre’Davious White has a $16.6 million cap hit and tore his Achilles this season. He had already been struggling to reach the same level he’d been playing at before tearing his ACL in 2021 and has appeared in just 21 of a possible 50 regular season games the past three years. Cutting him would save $6.2 million in cap space but result in $10.3 million in dead money, plus leave a big hole at cornerback. 

Buffalo’s course of action here might be influenced by other decisions they make in the secondary. Starting S Micah Hyde is on an expiring contract and fellow S Jordan Poyer carries $5.5 million in savings if cut. Hyde will be 34 and Poyer will be 33, so the Bills have to decide if they want to bring back both, one or none in 2024. Starting CB Dane Jackson is a pending free agent and CB Rasul Douglas, a trade deadline acquisition, has $9 million in non-guaranteed compensation that can all be saved via release. Starting slot corner Taron Johnson has a $12.4 million cap hit and $7.7 million in possible savings if cut. 

The Bills probably don’t want to start completely over in the secondary but a lot of change here seems inevitable. Douglas has been a solid acquisition as a midseason trade, so it’s possible the team restructures his deal to save $5.5 million or works out an extension. The Bills might feel more comfortable extending the 27-year-old Johnson to bring his cap number down, as he’s in the final year of his deal and can’t be restructured. 

In a similar vein, Bills starting C Mitch Morse will be 32 and Buffalo has to determine if the $8.5 million in cap savings from cutting him are worth the current production. For what it’s worth, center and slot corner are two areas teams often have success finding starter-level production for cheap, so that could factor into the decision with Morse and Johnson. 

Two easier decisions in terms of cap cuts include WR Deonte Harty and RB Nyheim Hines, which would save a total of $9 million. Both were added to bring speed and playmaking ability to the offense and special teams, but Hines hasn’t played since tearing his ACL in an accident in July and Harty has had minimal impact. Both players could be retained on pay cuts. 

Finding More Change In The Piggy Bank

In terms of other restructures, the Bills could look to LB Matt Milano, DT Ed Oliver, TE Dawson Knox, G Connor McGovern, K Tyler Bass and OL Ryan Bates, all of whom are starters or key role players who figure to be major components of the roster going forward. Restructuring all six could add another $20 million in cap space to Buffalo’s books for 2024. 

If there’s any hesitancy, it might be with Milano due to his age and the fact he’ll be coming off a major knee injury. Restructuring his contract would only add $2.4 million in space. Buffalo could also leave Knox’s contract untouched, as the fit with him and first-round TE Dalton Kincaid isn’t necessarily the smoothest. It would leave $6 million in 2024 savings on the table but preserve the ability to get out of the deal in 2025 with less dead money. 

Buffalo can and likely should extend LT Dion Dawkins, who has a $16.6 million cap hit in the final year of his contract. While he’ll be on the other side of 30, he’s still playing at a high level and has remained relatively healthy. The last time at the negotiating table, Dawkins got a little under $15 million per year. Given how the market has moved and how well Dawkins has played, it might take $18 million a year or more. Depending on how the Bills structure that, it could save $5 million or more in 2024 cap space. 

Bills DE Leonard Floyd is another strong extension candidate. His deal is set to void and count $4.4 million against the cap in 2024, all of which is dead money accelerating from the void years on his deal. While an extension wouldn’t save the Bills much, if anything, it would give them the benefit of keeping Floyd at a similar cap number, which is compelling given he leads the team with 10.5 sacks so far this season. 

Looking Ahead

At this point if we project the Bills restructuring the contracts for Allen, Diggs and the six other players listed above, cutting White, Harty and Hines and using a June 1 cut for Miller, that gives the Bills about an $18 million budget to work with in free agency, with another $6.8 million from Miller coming after June 1 to use as an in-season budget. 

Cutting Morse, Douglas and Johnson would more than double that with another $24.2 million, but it increases the urgency for the Bills to make good decisions to fill the holes cutting those players would create. And in addition to Davis, Jackson, Floyd and Hyde, their pending free agents list includes DT Jordan Phillips, DT DaQuan Jones, DE A.J. Epenesa and OL David Edwards. 

There’s definitely a path forward out of this for the Bills but it will require them to be precise and to make impeccable decisions with how they allocate their free agency dollars. Beane probably needs to do a little better in the draft than he has in the past couple of seasons as well. Any team with Allen at quarterback will always be in the hunt, but the Bills still have work to do as they keep chasing a championship.