The last mandatory minicamp wrapped up this past week and now all 32 teams are off until the end of July. From there, training camp begins and the marathon of the season gets underway. 

This makes it a perfect opportunity to take stock of the league. Normally the balance of power doesn’t shift all that much once free agency and the draft conclude, but this year there were two monstrous trades in June — the Rams landing DE Myles Garrett and the Patriots (finally) trading for WR A.J. Brown. Both moves were clearly aimed at catching the reigning champion Seahawks, who edged past Los Angeles and thumped New England to secure the Lombardi trophy. 

Time will tell how it all plays out but for now, here’s my view of how the league stacks up coming out of the offseason and heading into the season. Rather than a straight 1-32 ranking, this list also includes tiers. The break between tiers is far more relevant than the gap between rankings. For instance, the difference between the Rams and Broncos is bigger than the difference between the Broncos and Lions. 

Heavyweight Contenders

Early Super Bowl favorites

1 – Los Angeles Rams

• 2025 record: 12-5
• 2025 betting line: 11.5

Five years after the Rams pushed the chips in and were rewarded with a Super Bowl, they’re going for it yet again. They traded a blockbuster package for CB Trent McDuffie and spent big on CB Jaylen Watson in free agency, attacking their Achilles heel from last year in the secondary. And those moves proved to be just a warm-up for the real eyebrow-sizzler —  trading for Garrett at the cost of a first, second, third and DE Jared Verse. 

The addition of Garrett gives the Rams real Dream Team vibes, giving them a future Hall of Fame pass rusher fresh off breaking the single-season sack record despite playing for a five-win Browns team. True life seldom works out as neatly but there are legitimate reasons to be excited about the Rams. The heart of the offense is back with QB Matthew Stafford, HC Sean McVay, WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and RB Kyren Williams. The defense was solid last year and got significant reinforcements in both the front and back end. 

Health might be the biggest hurdle the Rams have to clear, as they are thin in a few key places like offensive line and receiver. The former is something to watch, as that’s kneecapped past seasons for McVay when the front five has been subpar. It’s especially critical since the 37-year-old Stafford has battled back issues as recently as last summer. 

2 – Seattle Seahawks

• 2025 record: 14-3
• 2025 betting line: 10.5

It’s hard to repeat as Super Bowl champions but the Seahawks are well-positioned to make a strong run at it. Most of the core of the team that won handily in the championship last year will be back in 2026. Those players are either still in their prime or are young and ascending. Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald has established himself as a difference-maker as a defensive mastermind, and if Seattle isn’t a top-five defense this year, it will be a big upset. 

Some attrition was inevitable, though, and the Seahawks weren’t immune, losing notables like CB Riq Woolen, OLB Boye Mafe and RB Kenneth Walker. Macdonald should be able to absorb the losses of Woolen and Mafe and keep Seattle’s defense going strong. The loss of Walker might be a little more challenging, though the Seahawks hope first-round RB Jadarian Price can replicate that explosive element. It’s an open question how much RB Zach Charbonnet will contribute in 2026 after February ACL surgery. 

The biggest loss might have been off the field, though. Seattle lost OC Klint Kubiak to a head coaching position with the Raiders. To replace him, they promoted TE coach Brian Fleury, who has a ton of experience in the same style of offense that Kubiak ran, but is just now getting his first play-calling job at 45 years old. The upshot is they’ll keep the same system for QB Sam Darnold and the offense. The downside is that Kubiak was a big X-factor in last season’s success, and it’s always a big risk for teams when they go from a star play-caller to an unproven quantity (see the Lions going from Ben Johnson to John Morton last year). 

Midweight Contenders

Can make legit push for Super Bowl with good health and overcoming one or two weaknesses

3 – Denver Broncos

• 2025 record: 14-3
• 2025 betting line: 9.5

Had Broncos QB Bo Nix not fractured his ankle at the end of a thrilling divisional round win against the Bills, Denver very well may have been the AFC’s representative in the Super Bowl last year. The Broncos aren’t guaranteed an opportunity like that again. Last year, they were a remarkable 10-4 in close games, including the playoffs. History says those tend to be closer to 50-50 propositions over time. 

Still, the Broncos could lose more games in 2026 and still end up being a better team. They bring back the bulk of last year’s roster on both sides of the ball, including nearly all of the starters. The exceptions on defense are LB Dre Greenlaw, DL John Franklin-Myers and possibly OLB Jonathon Cooper depending on how things pan out with his twin domestic violence arrests. Still, there should be enough depth to handle those absences and remain a top-10 unit. 

The big changes to try and get over the hump came on offense. The Broncos swung a big trade for WR Jaylen Waddle to give Nix and the offense a matchup-dictating weapon and a dynamic threat. Shockingly, Broncos HC Sean Payton also handed over play-calling duties to OC Davis Webb. That might say more about Webb — a burning comet in the coaching world right now who was a practice squad passer as recently as 2022 — than it does about Payton. With Nix in the third year of his rookie contract, this is the last year for the Broncos to try and maximize the flexibility that comes from that. 

4 – Buffalo Bills

• 2025 record: 12-5
• 2025 betting line: 10.5

Buffalo made a huge change this offseason, moving on from longtime HC Sean McDermott, but the decision to promote OC Joe Brady to replace him shows expectations remain in the exact same place they’ve been since QB Josh Allen broke out as one of the league’s biggest stars. The bet is that tweaking things with Brady will be the spark that’s needed to get the Bills over the hump for a Super Bowl. To that end, the offense around Allen remains largely the same with the exception of the trade for WR D.J. Moore to give him some much-needed weaponry outside. 

The bigger question is on defense where the upheaval from McDermott’s departure will probably be felt the most. Brady hired DC Jim Leonhard who will be running a dramatically different system than what McDermott ran. It will be a 3-4 base instead of a 4-3 (though that distinction matters less than ever given most teams are in nickel for most of their snaps) and will be more blitz-heavy and attacking given Leonhard’s influences with the Broncos, Ravens and the old Rex Ryan Jets. In addition to the scheme change, the Bills have personnel questions at edge rusher, linebacker and safety. 

Still, Allen gives this team an incredibly high floor and a margin for error as they figure things out with the new staff. 

5 – Chicago Bears

• 2025 record: 12-5
• 2025 betting line: 9.5

Expectations are as high as they’ve been in Chicago in a long time, but I think the Bears have the goods to build on last year’s success instead of taking a step back. My optimism centers around the duo of HC Ben Johnson and QB Caleb Williams. Great things happen when teams can marry an elite offensive mastermind with an elite talent at quarterback, and these two fit the bill. Last year was the first time in four seasons that Johnson didn’t have a top-five offense, “only” finishing No. 6 in yards and No. 9 in scoring. Williams’ raw talent is obvious to anyone who watches him for five minutes — he just needs to iron out the details and consistency to his game, and he landed with the exact right coach to bring that out of him. 

Down the road, I could see some volatility between Williams’ fiery personality and Johnson’s exacting approach. But for now, the table is set for the Bears to have one of the most explosive offenses in football. The skill position talent is growing alongside Williams and the Bears worked hard to fight off attrition on the offensive line this offseason. 

The bigger roster questions center around the defense, but I have a lot of faith in DC Dennis Allen’s track record on that side of the ball. The Bears probably won’t lead the NFL with 33 turnovers forced again but they should be able to do better than No. 23 in scoring defense in Year 2. 

6 – Philadelphia Eagles

• 2025 record: 11-6
• 2025 betting line: 10.5

The drama surrounding how the Eagles’ 2025 season ended and the lingering news cycle with the Brown trade have overshadowed their 2026 outlook. There are real questions Philadelphia needs to answer but there’s a reason the Eagles are one of nine teams with a win total of 10.5 or better from the betting odds. There’s a ton of talent on this roster still, particularly on the defense. In fact, I’d put Philadelphia on the super short list of contenders to have the NFL’s No. 1 defense. 

Retaining the architect of the scheme, DC Vic Fangio, was a big win. The Eagles also have a suffocating secondary with CB Quinyon Mitchell and CB Cooper DeJean, who will be joined by Woolen from Seattle. The early reports on that trio from the spring have been glowing. Up front, the Eagles answered a big question about their pass rush by trading for Vikings OLB Jonathan Greenard. He had a tough 2025 with injuries, but in the two years before that he had 24.5 sacks. Greenard joins an edge rusher group that featured Jalyx Hunt and Nolan Smith, taking that from shaky for a Super Bowl contender to a potential strength. Philadelphia still has a monster interior, too, with DTs Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis.

The Eagles’ ceiling will be determined by the new-look offense, as 34-year-old first-time playcaller Sean Mannion arrives to install a version of the Shanahan/McVay scheme. That’s supposed to bring more consistency and unlock more production from the passing game and QB Jalen Hurts, assuming he takes to the scheme. Previous iterations of the Eagles’ offense often belonged as much to Hurts as they did the various other play-callers, as he has defined strengths and weaknesses as a quarterback. There is a lot on the line here, but if Hurts excels, the Eagles should be legitimate threats for their fourth Super Bowl appearance this decade. 

7 – San Francisco 49ers

• 2025 record: 12-5
• 2025 betting line: 10.5

Health once again seems like it will be the biggest overriding factor to whether the 49ers are successful in 2026. Last year they were ravaged by injuries, but thanks to some good coaching, a soft schedule and some opportune performances by backups, the 49ers still won 12 games. The slate of games won’t cut them as many breaks in 2026, starting with a trip to Australia in Week 1 for a pivotal divisional matchup against the Rams. The improvements to the roster could offset that…but again, it comes back to health. 

On paper, the 49ers should be loaded on offense. They added WRs Mike Evans and Christian Kirk to a nucleus that included RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle and LT Trent Williams. You can debate QB Brock Purdy’s place in the broader quarterback hierarchy, but if he’s healthy and HC Kyle Shanahan is at the controls, San Francisco is putting up numbers. The concern here is the age and injury history for just about everyone. 

On defense, a lot of young players got to play last year in a designed youth movement. Losing DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner to injury wasn’t part of the design, but both should be back and ready to roll. San Francisco should rebound from an out-of-character 2025 when it notched a league-low 20 sacks, though finding more pass-rushing firepower is certainly something GM John Lynch is going to be thinking about all season, especially considering how loaded the NFC West is. 

8 – Baltimore Ravens

• 2025 record: 8-9
• 2025 betting line: 11.5

At 11.5, the Ravens had the sole highest projected win total of all 32 teams, though the Rams’ trade for Garrett pushed them up to 11.5 at some sportsbooks. This is despite a brand-new coaching staff, a new offense and first-time playcaller, and missing on a blockbuster trade for Raiders DE Maxx Crosby. The Vegas bookmakers remain high on the Ravens. 

Two-time MVP QB Lamar Jackson undoubtedly is a major reason why, though he was banged up once again last season and it impacted his numbers, especially on the ground. It’s fair to wonder how Jackson’s game will age but that might not be an issue that crops up this season. The Ravens will still lean hard on RB Derrick Henry and Jackson has a few familiar weapons to throw to as well. First-time OC Declan Doyle is a wildcard but he comes highly recommended and has plenty to work with. 

On defense, the Ravens didn’t get Crosby but they did land a big fish by signing former Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson away. He’s the most accomplished and prolific pass rusher Baltimore has had since probably Terrell Suggs. Ideally that goes a long way toward fixing the Ravens’ pass rush issues, as they have had trouble generating pressure with just four and it’s created cracks elsewhere. Star S Kyle Hamilton should continue to be one of the league’s elite playmakers, especially since new HC Jesse Minter will be keeping the same scheme. 

Overall, I would say an 11.5 win line is slightly overcooking the Ravens’ 2026 outlook, as the new coaching staff injects some uncertainty for me. Still, there’s a lot to like with the talent on the roster and it’s quite possible a younger staff generates a spark to help this team finally break through. 

9 – Detroit Lions

• 2025 record: 9-8
• 2025 betting line: 10.5

At first glance, it’s tough to figure out how the Lions missed the playoffs last year. Their plus-68 scoring differential was better than the rest of the NFC North and every other NFC team besides the Seahawks and Rams. Despite demoting the play-caller during the season, the Lions finished top-five in scoring and yards for the fourth consecutive season. Injuries and bad luck were contributing factors. The Lions were a walking MASH unit in the secondary during the back half of the season and went 2-5 in one-score games. A three-game losing streak in December sank their postseason hopes. 

Instead of chalking last year up to a bad break, though, Lions HC Dan Campbell approached this offseason with renewed vigor. The Lions tabbed former Cardinals OC Drew Petzing to run the offense because stylistically he was more of a fit for the style Campbell wants to play with. They also overhauled the offensive line after the group noticeably took a step back in 2025. The Lions weren’t big spenders in free agency but they were busy as Campbell quintupled down on the types of players he wants his program to bet on — gritty workaholics. 

With the core of the roster still in place on both sides of the ball, I like the Lions for a bounce-back in 2026. They’re just due for some good luck, both in the close games department and with injuries, although their 2025 injury issues have bled into 2026 with multiple key starters still recuperating. Safety stands out as a potential pain point given neither Kerby Joseph (knee) nor Brian Branch (Achilles) are healthy yet. 

Lightweight Contenders

Roster in progress but too talented to be counted out completely

10 – Kansas City Chiefs

• 2025 record: 6-11
• 2025 betting line: 10.5

Last year, it felt like the Chiefs stopped being able to get away with all the problems they had papered over with their success and the individual brilliance of QB Patrick Mahomes. Even before Mahomes tore his ACL in December, the Chiefs were on track to miss the postseason. The offense was stale and un-explosive, and the defense needed more pass rushers who could take pressure off the secondary. 

They still have to prove they’ve fixed some of those problems but this feels like the lowest I can credibly rank the Chiefs given their overall track record. Mahomes is pushing to play Week 1 and at this point, all signs point to him reaching that goal. It would be fair to expect some bumps early on as he plays himself back into form, but they signed RB Kenneth Walker to lean on during that time. Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo will also be onboarding a bunch of young players, but he historically has had his side of the ball whipped into shape for the second half of the season. 

There’s a good chance that by December and January, he and the Chiefs will be ready to play their best ball when it matters most. 

11 – New England Patriots

• 2025 record: 14-3
• 2025 betting line: 9.5

This might feel low for the AFC’s representative in the Super Bowl, but owner Robert Kraft has even acknowledged New England overachieved in 2025. A year off of picking No. 4 in the draft, the Patriots nuked expectations by winning 14 games, then getting a relatively favorable playoff slate before hitting a buzzsaw of a Seahawks team. Drake Maye was a legitimate MVP candidate in his first year under OC Josh McDaniels, but the rest of the roster is still a work in progress. 

Combine that with the natural Super Bowl hangover, and regression from 14-3 feels inevitable. Still, the Patriots have made some strides to consolidate their gains with the goal of becoming a regular playoff team. Trading for Brown gives Maye a No. 1 weapon, and the Patriots made additions on both sides of the line of scrimmage which is crucial to elevating the team’s floor. Pairing a quarterback like Maye with a coach like HC Mike Vrabel is a good recipe for staying in the mix each and every season. 

12 – Dallas Cowboys

• 2025 record: 7-9-1
• 2025 betting line: 9.5

Had Dallas been just a tick better than literally last in the league in scoring defense, they might have had more to show for the season than a 7-9-1 record and some pretty offensive stats. It’s pretty clear the team decision-makers had similar thoughts, as they devoted a lot of resources to the defensive side of the ball while bringing back the core of an offense that was No. 2 in yards. Offensive success is easier to maintain from year to year, especially for teams like the Cowboys that are maintaining a lot of continuity from QB Dak Prescott to HC Brian Schottenheimer. It also includes a franchise tag for WR George Pickens. 

Defensively, a lot of Dallas’ optimism centers around new DC Christian Parker, who the team poached from Philadelphia’s defensive staff. From a talent perspective, it’s hard to see the Cowboys making the leap all the way to a top 10 unit, but if they can go from bottom of the league to below average, that should be enough for materially better results. 

13 – Cincinnati Bengals

• 2025 record: 6-11
• 2025 betting line: 9.5

The Bengals, led by QB Joe Burrow, have not been shy about talking about the Super Bowl expectations for Cincinnati this year. The team is on a three-year playoff drought, fueled by injuries to Burrow or putrid play by the defense (sometimes both). Now, the Bengals’ defensive additions this offseason are generating significant optimism. Cincinnati signed DE Boye Mafe, DT Jonathan Allen and S Bryan Cook in free agency, then flipped the No. 10 pick for Giants DT Dexter Lawrence. 

However, linebacker remains a glaring need, and the jury is still out on DC Al Golden’s chops as a defensive designer. The talent upgrade on defense is real and Burrow is elite, but if you compare the Bengals head to head to the Cowboys, I’m not sure they definitively come out ahead. 

Playoff Hopefuls

Should challenge for a playoff berth, questions about overall ceiling

14 – Los Angeles Chargers

• 2025 record: 11-6
• 2025 betting line: 9.5

The Chargers are replacing both coordinators this season, one by choice, one not. Los Angeles decided it needed more than former OC Greg Roman was providing and pursued former Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel to unlock another level from QB Justin Herbert. McDaniel’s offenses in Miami were deadly despite the physical limitations of his starting quarterback, so there’s a ton of intrigue around the league about what Herbert could do at the wheel. Getting both OTs Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater back healthy is also huge. 

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers lost Minter who went back to Baltimore to take the head coaching job. To preserve a similar system, the Chargers hired Western Michigan DC Chris O’Leary, a former Minter assistant who had coached in Los Angeles at one point prior. It’s a gamble, as the jump from Western Michigan to the NFL is huge. But they evidently liked O’Leary’s coaching chops, and the familiarity dynamic could matter. 

Typically there’s a lot of volatility when there’s this much coaching turnover for teams, but the Chargers have a lot of talent. Coming off a playoff appearance, the next goal will be snapping a playoff victory drought that stretches back to 2018. 

15 – Green Bay Packers

• 2025 record: 9-7-1
• 2025 betting line: 10.5

I had some skepticism about the Packers last year, as I thought they were exceptionally deep for an NFL team but didn’t have the top-end talent to truly make a deep run. Their trade for OLB Micah Parsons on the eve of the season seemed to go a long way toward answering that question but they were once again plagued by inconsistency. After Parsons’ torn ACL and a rash of late-season injuries, the Packers limped into the playoffs, took a big lead against the Bears, then collapsed. It’s not clear how close HC Matt LaFleur was to actually not coming back to Green Bay, but the fan sentiment against him is the highest it’s ever been. 

Parsons will start the season on the PUP list, so the Packers are going to be shorthanded for at least a month. They lost a lot of players this offseason, most of whom they already had in-house replacements for. But the defense is weak at edge rusher and cornerback, which is not a great combination. The good news is new DC Jonathan Gannon has a pretty strong track record. 

On offense, the combo of LaFleur and QB Jordan Love innately gives the Packers a pretty strong floor. If RB Josh Jacobs is suspended as the result of an alleged domestic violence incident, that would be a pretty tough blow for Green Bay, as the Packers lean on him hard. Otherwise, the biggest hurdle for this offense isn’t going to be putting up yards and points, it’s going to be doing it in the high-leverage moments. 

16 – Jacksonville Jaguars

• 2025 record: 13-4
• 2025 betting line: 8.5

In their first season, both Jaguars HC Liam Coen and GM James Gladstone made a big splash. Gladstone authored one of the boldest trade ups in the last decade, going from No. 5 to No. 2 to take theoretical two-way WR/CB Travis Hunter. Unfortunately he played more receiver than corner before a season-ending knee injury. Coen had a much smoother debut, piloting an effective offense, a resurgence from QB Trevor Lawrence and a 13-win season. 

The betting line shows there’s some skepticism about the Jaguars repeating that success. Most of their improvement is going to have to come from internal development and unlocking more from players like Hunter, as the Jaguars mostly sat out free agency to collect compensatory picks for the future. However, this team is solid on both sides of the ball. I think they have a great shot of winning the AFC South for the second straight year. 

17 – Houston Texans

• 2025 record: 12-5
• 2025 betting line: 9.5

Last year the Texans had one of those rare defensive units that could have been capable of taking them all the way to the Super Bowl if the offense had just been able to get out of the way. Unfortunately that’s not what happened in the playoffs, as QB C.J. Stroud had a meltdown with five interceptions and five fumbles in two playoff games. It continued an overall downward trajectory for Stroud since his brilliant debut rookie season in 2023. 

Two years ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion we’d be talking this summer about Stroud resetting the quarterback market as one of the game’s brightest rising stars. Instead, there’s a very real scenario where Stroud doesn’t re-sign with the team, not unless the two sides can flip his fall and get him back on a growth track. The Texans are backing Stroud publicly and privately and have continued to try to build up the offense around him. But they’re definitely not in a hurry to fork over more than $60 million a year. Stroud has to earn that, and he can if he has a big 2026 season. 

18 – Pittsburgh Steelers

• 2025 record: 10-7
• 2025 betting line: 8.5

It’s the end of an era in Pittsburgh, as for the first time in nearly 20 years, Mike Tomlin won’t be patrolling the sidelines. He’ll be replaced by one of Pittsburgh’s native sons, Mike McCarthy, and outside of that a lot of things are going to look familiar for Steelers fans. The heart of last year’s veteran-laden team is back, including QB Aaron Rodgers, OLB T.J. Watt, DB Jalen Ramsey, DL Cameron Heyward, WR D.K. Metcalf and more. 

The biggest tweaks are bringing in McCarthy, who’s as accomplished an offensive playcaller as the Steelers have had in a while, and adding a couple new skill position players in WR Michael Pittman Jr. and RB Rico Dowdle. The hope is that can result in a deeper run into the playoffs for the Steelers, who infamously haven’t had a playoff win since 2017 despite never having a losing season under Tomlin. It’s tough to see the Steelers really bottoming out with the team they’ve assembled, but it’s also tough to see too much more of a ceiling unless Rodgers taps back into some fountain of youth. 

The Murky Middle

Making the playoffs would be a win

19 – Minnesota Vikings

• 2025 record: 9-8
• 2025 betting line: 8.5

Despite all the consternation over the quarterback position last year, the Vikings still finagled a winning record out of all the chaos. It goes to show the duo of HC Kevin O’Connell and DC Brian Flores gives the team a pretty high floor — O’Connell with his “quarterback whispering” and Flores with his one-of-a-kind amoeba defense. 

Getting more from the quarterback position is the key for real lasting success and that’s why hopes were so high for former first-rounder J.J. McCarthy. The fact that Kyler Murray is in Minnesota right now leading the competition for the starting job is telling on how disappointing McCarthy’s 2025 was for the Vikings. Murray has a lot of natural talent that could be unlocked by O’Connell, but there’s a reason the Cardinals were willing to move on. It’s probably fair to say the Vikings will go as Murray goes in 2026. 

20 – Las Vegas Raiders

• 2025 record: 3-14
• 2025 betting line: 5.5

I think the Raiders might be a little sneaky in 2026 (caveat, I thought this last year and was horribly wrong). I don’t think a playoff spot or anything is in the cards, but I do think they should hit the over on their win total handily. The two chief sources of optimism for me are Kubiak and No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza. Kubiak has presided over some big jumps in offensive efficiency at his last couple of stops, including the Seahawks and Saints. Crucially, Kubiak’s success came without a lot of blue chip offensive line talent, which is what he’s stepping into with the Raiders. The offensive line was the fatal flaw for the Raiders last year, and that should be better in 2026. 

After that, I think the Raiders are going to get better quarterback play regardless of whether it’s veteran Kirk Cousins or Mendoza in the lineup. I believe the Raiders when they say they want to ease Mendoza in and would be content to redshirt him behind Cousins the entire year. Cousins should give them a solid floor, but ultimately Mendoza’s talent is going to be too good to keep locked away. At that point, I think we could see the same kind of spark that we’ve seen rookie quarterbacks provide. 

21 – Washington Commanders

• 2025 record: 5-12
• 2025 betting line: 7.5

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels has top-five talent but last year reignited the injury concerns from the pre-draft conversation given his slight frame. I’m still not sure if Washington has done enough to build around Daniels this offseason. They changed play-callers, dumping Kliff Kingsbury and promoting little-known assistant QB coach David Blough, with the goal of getting Daniels under center more and making life easier for him. However, it’s TBD whether they’ve upgraded the weapons outside of WR Terry McLaurin, who currently is slated to get all the targets he can handle. 

On the other side of the ball, the Commanders shook up the defense after a tough year and hired DC Daronte Jones from the Vikings. The goal is to try and replicate Flores’ system, and if successful, that could give Washington an edge. Overall, though, the talent on the defense still feels like it’s lagging behind, especially at edge rusher. 

22 – New York Giants

• 2025 record: 4-13
• 2025 betting line: 7.5

There are a lot of reasons to expect much better results from the Giants in 2026. Chief among those is a new coaching staff helmed by John Harbaugh which instantly adds a ton more credibility to the team. Harbaugh may have hit his expiration date in Baltimore but he’s still a quality coach and the Giants have a lot of talent that’s been squandered by previous coaches. You could see it last year with a 1-6 record in close games (and that number should regress to the mean, too). 

Still, there are some weaknesses that could hold the Giants back from truly competing for a playoff berth. The receiving corps is a massive question mark, especially if star WR Malik Nabers is not 100 percent to start the season. It sounds like Week 1 is in doubt and Nabers might not be back to his former elite level until halfway through the year, if at all. Expect the team to lean hard on the ground game, as the offensive line might be the best it’s been in years. Defensively, the Giants have a great edge rusher room, but the run defense and secondary are questionable. 

23 – Carolina Panthers

• 2025 record: 8-9
• 2025 betting line: 7.5

The Panthers snapped a playoff drought that stretched back to 2017 last year, winning the NFC South despite a losing record and using that home playoff game to take the Rams to the brink. None of the numbers looked particularly good. Carolina was 27th in both scoring offense and total offense. They were right in the middle in those same categories on defense despite atrocious pressure numbers. The Panthers’ wins came because they were either lucky or clutch, depending on how you look at it. Carolina was 7-3 in close games during the regular season and QB Bryce Young had six game-winning drives. 

Young has done an admirable job rebounding from a benching to start Year 2 but I think it’s fair to say both he and the Panthers are looking for him to do more. The Panthers invested more into the defense to try and improve the pass rush, hopefully pushing to be a top 10 unit on that side of the ball. Ideally, the Panthers would lean on the running game and defense while letting Young make the plays needed to win. That’s a hard tightrope to walk in the modern NFL though. 

24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• 2025 record: 8-9
• 2025 betting line: 8.5

This will be the fourth year for the Bucs with QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles. In the first three years, Tampa Bay went 9-8, 10-7 and 8-9, winning the division in the first two of those years. By and large, they’ve been the exact same team, the biggest difference has been the outside expectations. Early on, people thought they could bottom out and get Bowles fired; last year, the talk was about the Bucs ascending to contender status in the NFC. 

I think 2026 is going to be more of the same. The offense might be a little worse, as they have to deal with the loss of WR Mike Evans and I don’t think OC Zac Robinson was a particularly inspired hire. On defense, the Bucs should improve after two straight underwhelming years. Getting OLB Rueben Bain Jr. in the first round was a coup. Overall, the team is still in great shape to win the division but that says more about the rest of the NFC South than it does the Bucs. 

25 – New Orleans Saints

• 2025 record: 6-11
• 2025 betting line: 7.5

In the first half of the season, the Saints went 1-7 and scored more than 20 points just twice. After turning things over to second-round QB Tyler Shough, New Orleans finished 5-4 and topped 20 points in four games. Those aren’t Super Bowl numbers or anything but there was a clear improvement, and that’s led to some optimism about the Saints as a potential NFC South dark horse contender. 

Things remain a work in progress, though. The Saints added a lot to the offense, adding G David Edwards and RB Travis Etienne in free agency and quadruple-dipping on pass catchers in the draft (first-round WR Jordyn Tyson, third-round TE Oscar Delp, fourth-round WR Bryce Lance and sixth-round WR Barion Brown). The goal is to evaluate Shough and give him what he needs to be successful. The defense got a little less work but with DC Brandon Staley, there’s a sense the Saints can get by for a year doing less with more. 

26 – Indianapolis Colts 

• 2025 record: 8-9
• 2025 betting line: 7.5

It’s a big year for Colts GM Chris Ballard and HC Shane Steichen, with essentially a playoff-or-bust mandate. There are going to be headwinds to fight through. Starting QB Daniel Jones is coming off of a torn Achilles and was already showing signs of slippage after a red hot first half of the season. Indianapolis traded Pittman to save money to keep Jones and WR Alec Pierce, but Pierce had offseason ankle surgery that will keep him out into training camp, so the Colts are starting to look thin at receiver. 

On defense, there remain questions at edge rusher, linebacker and safety. Indianapolis was 21st in scoring defense in DC Lou Anarumo’s debut last year, and it’s not clear if they’re going to be materially better. From an intangible factor, players and coaches are human, too. There’s extra pressure in a hot seat year and they’re not immune to internalizing some of that. When things inevitably start to go wrong during a season, that can start a snowball. 

27 – Atlanta Falcons

• 2025 record: 8-9
• 2025 betting line: 6.5

As the betting line suggests, this feels like a reset season for the Falcons. They didn’t hit the tank button as hard as some of the other teams in the next bucket but they weren’t particularly active either. There’s a brand-new regime with team president Matt Ryan, GM Ian Cunningham and HC Kevin Stefanski, and it feels like everyone on the roster has this year for that trio to evaluate their fit. 

Top of the list is quarterback. Veteran QB Tua Tagovailoa is probably going to start the season given his health compared to QB Michael Penix Jr., his accuracy and his experience, but the Falcons are going to want to get a good, long look to evaluate Penix unless Tagovailoa is just lights out. At that point, they can reassess ahead of a bumper crop of 2027 quarterbacks. 

Bottom Of The Barrel

Likely jockeying for draft position to take a QB in December

28 – Tennessee Titans

• 2025 record: 3-14
• 2025 betting line: 6.5

The Titans landed two former New York coaches, HC Robert Saleh (Jets) and OC Brian Daboll (Giants), hoping that they could turn around both sides of the ball. Saleh will focus on the defense and he has a strong track record on that side of the ball with multiple top five finishes while with the Jets. The Titans poured a lot of resources into the defense, too, giving Saleh a lot more talent to work with. 

Daboll is essentially going to be the head coach of the offense and have a lot of latitude to work with QB Cam Ward, who has some similar strengths as a freestyler to one of Daboll’s past pupils in Buffalo. Ward was the latest No. 1 pick to struggle mightily as a rookie. The good news for him is the past two (Williams and Young) have rebounded. The bad news is the Titans still have some glaring holes despite using the No. 5 pick on WR Carnell Tate. 

29 – New York Jets

• 2025 record: 3-14
• 2025 betting line: 5.5

The Jets have an interesting line to walk. On one hand, QB Geno Smith is not a long-term option, and with three first-round picks in 2027, New York clearly has designs on finding a future franchise starter next April. On the other hand, HC Aaron Glenn can’t afford another miserable season like this past one. He has to show a lot more to ownership to prove he’s the right man to shepherd the Jets through the rest of their rebuild. The team was active in free agency on defense in an effort to help that side of the ball. The Jets’ struggles on defense, including finishing the entire season with no interceptions, was particularly galling given Glenn’s background as a defensive coach. 

30 – Cleveland Browns

• 2025 record: 5-12
• 2025 betting line: 6.5

In the short term, the Garrett trade hammers home how minimal the expectations are for Cleveland in 2026. Getting back Verse does lessen the immediate blow — and it’ll be fascinating to revisit this trade in three years when Verse is 28 and Garrett is 33 — but trading a future Hall of Famer coming off breaking the sack record speaks for itself. The other running storyline is whether the Browns can land a Hail Mary by happening to luck into a starting quarterback between Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson. 

31 – Miami Dolphins

• 2025 record: 7-10
• 2025 betting line: 4.5

The Dolphins are spending more on their salary cap for players who aren’t on the roster than they are for players who will suit up in 2026. There are a lot of minimum salary veterans on the roster, and that explains the low win total. Miami will be scrappy and hungry with all the prove-it players, but the results will be more about silver linings than wins. 

32 – Arizona Cardinals 

• 2025 record: 3-14
• 2025 betting line: 4.5

I would have a tough time articulating what the long-term vision for the Cardinals is right now, maybe because they don’t have one. It does not seem like they’re particularly worried about competing in 2026 and have eyes on the 2027 quarterback class like a bunch of other teams. It’s tough to really say a whole lot else about this team. It’s going to be a long season in Arizona…