NFL Week 1 Overreactions

The best and most maddening part of Week 1 is how every year it reveals we only know about 40 percent, tops, of what we think we know entering each NFL season. All of a sudden, there’s a flood of new information about all 32 teams and a lot of it isn’t what we expected. 

Sorting through that becomes a new challenge. First impressions carry a lot of weight and it’s easy to overreact to the first data point in a long season. But a lot of this new info has staying power. 

Here are our takeaways, including what we think is real and what isn’t, from a wild Week 1: 

The Browns just might be contenders

Plenty of folks had the Bengals pegged as Super Bowl contenders entering the 2023 season after making it to the AFC title game last year. Cincinnati has one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Joe Burrow and a roster without any real weaknesses, on paper at least. 

So it absolutely should make us sit up and take notice that the Bengals were thoroughly dismantled, 24-3, by the division-rival Cleveland Browns. What’s most encouraging is the way the Browns won the game. Cleveland entered the season with high internal expectations in the second year for QB Deshaun Watson after he struggled in his six games post-suspension in 2022. Watson was better in his first start of 2023, making plays with his legs and flashing with a few throws, but he still wasn’t as good as he was back in his last full season in 2020. 

It was the defense that led the way for the Browns, dominating Cincinnati’s front with a retooled defensive line spearheaded by DE Myles Garrett. New DC Jim Schwartz also had a few wrinkles that got the better of the Bengals, leading to a dismal performance. Burrow had only 82 passing yards which is a career low by far. He targeted WR Tee Higgins eight times with zero connections and star WR Ja’Marr Chase finished with just 39 receiving yards. 

Things should get better for the Bengals. Burrow looked a lot like someone who missed nearly all of training camp and the preseason and wasn’t in sync with his receiving corps. Cincinnati also has a history of slow starts to the season in Burrow’s short career so far. But this is still a win that should be highly encouraging for the Browns and their outlook for the rest of this season. 

49ers hit the ground running, trouble in Pittsburgh? 

There might not have been a team that looked better than the Steelers during this past preseason. Pittsburgh went 3-0 and the first-string offense looked like a well-oiled machine in their appearances. That had a lot of people on upset watch for the 49ers, who were making the dreaded cross-country trip from the West Coast, had a quarterback making his first start after major elbow surgery and only got star DE Nick Bosa back from a prolonged contract holdout in the last week. 

It was the 49ers who looked like the machine, though, dominating the Steelers from start to finish in a 30-7 win. Starting QB Brock Purdy picked up where he left off in a revelatory rookie season, tossing two touchdowns and running the offense well. He got big games from WR Brandon Aiyuk (two receiving touchdowns) and RB Christian McCaffrey (over 150 yards on the ground and a score). The defense sacked Steelers QB Kenny Pickett and picked him off twice. That type of win over a franchise as proud as the Steelers is what you’d expect from a Super Bowl-contending team. 

The Steelers meanwhile have problems. Optimism about Pickett and the offense built all offseason and was accelerated during the preseason as fans anticipated a second-year leap for their young quarterback distributing the ball to a talented supporting cast that included WRs Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Allen Robinson, RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, and TE Pat Freiermuth. To say the 49ers poured cold water on those hopes would be underselling it — the Steelers had the equivalent of a frozen block of ice dropped on their heads. 

Pickett was not sharp but the Steelers still asked him to throw it 46 times, completely abandoning the run game. Harris and Warren combined for just nine carries and Pickett averaged only five yards per pass attempt. The 49ers were up 17-0 by the early second quarter but Steelers OC Matt Canada probably abandoned the run too soon and put too much on Pickett. Canada caught a lot of flack last season, too, and the early indication is he might be a problem for Pittsburgh again. 

Bucs, Cardinals, Raiders, Rams aren’t pushovers?

There’s a saying in gambling that “the house always wins,” so it makes sense to pay attention to what sportsbooks say about the NFL in the lead-up to the season. The Cardinals, Buccaneers and Rams all opened the season with some of the lowest projected win totals in the league and were seen as potential early contenders for the No. 1 pick. I thought the Raiders were a dark horse to lose more games than all three. 

So naturally three of those four teams won their opening game and Arizona pushed the Commanders to the brink in a 20-16 loss. Washington is a team with its own major questions and there are no moral victories in the NFL. But it was still notable to see a Cardinals squad that literally everyone had written off show a pulse. 

Tampa Bay, Las Vegas and Los Angeles all won outright. The Bucs survived a first-half Vikings onslaught by forcing a couple crucial turnovers and then hung around long enough to eke out a three-point, 20-17 win despite an ugly-looking offense at times. The Raiders were the beneficiary of a missed extra point and field goal by new Broncos K Wil Lutz, but they still put the game away when they had to, running out the final 5:08 of the fourth quarter and kneeling out a 17-16 win. 

And the Rams were like boa constrictors, slowly tightening their grip around a Seahawks team that started the game hot. Los Angeles got a big game from QB Matthew Stafford and had young WRs Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell step up to go over 100 yards each in the absence of star WR Cooper Kupp. The Rams kept stringing long drives together and Seattle couldn’t sustain its momentum after losing both starting offensive tackles during the game. The final score was 30-13, Rams on top, busting many survivor pools around the country in only the first week. 

Should this change our opinions of these teams in a major way going forward? There are often wacky results in Week 1 and buying too much stock in an upset can prove to be fools’ gold. There were significant elements of luck in all three wins. The Bucs recovered two fumbles and caused three total turnovers. The Raiders held the Broncos to just six total drives and won by one point in a game where Denver’s kicker left four on the field. The Rams were the beneficiary of both of Seattle’s starting tackles going out. 

But Los Angeles had the most convincing win by far over a Seahawks squad that many thought could take a big leap and threaten the 49ers for NFC West supremacy. Stars matter, and the Rams still have a few of them in Stafford, DT Aaron Donald and HC Sean McVay. Rougher days are ahead for all of these teams but I think the Rams have the best chance to sustain this start and make some noise over the rest of the season. 

We’re going to see Taylor Heinicke play for the Falcons this season

The Falcons had a relatively comfortable 24-10 win against the Panthers to move to 1-0 on the season, taking advantage of a sloppy Carolina performance with three turnovers in No. 1 overall QB Bryce Young’s first-ever start. Their winning formula looked an awful lot like last year. Atlanta rushed 26 times and passed just 18. 

It’s hard to complain about a win but it was not an encouraging 2023 debut for Falcons QB Desmond Ridder. He completed 15 of his 18 pass attempts for 115 yards and a touchdown but he was helped out tremendously by his receivers. First-round RB Bijan Robinson had six receptions to pace all Atlanta pass catchers and had a terrific effort after the catch to score. Falcons TE Kyle Pitts made an outstanding adjustment on a jump ball from Ridder for 34 yards to ice the game in the fourth quarter.

Before that, the frustration from Falcons HC Arthur Smith was palpable in the first half. Ridder had just 24 passing yards at the half and took four sacks. The only way the Falcons could move the ball was on the ground and Ridder’s inefficiency hurt their ability to sustain drives.

Ridder still has some leash to burn but if he keeps putting up performances like that, the Falcons have an alternative on their bench in Heinicke. He’s making good money for a backup and while he’s certainly a flawed quarterback, he could spark a Falcons squad that has designs on winning the NFC South this year. 

Calvin Ridley’s back

Every year there are training camp and preseason stars who roll into Week 1 on a big hype train, like former Rams WR Allen Robinson last year. Then the realities of the regular season hit and things can go off the rails. Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley has demanded the attention of everyone who’s come through Jacksonville this summer, and he followed through on the hype with a massive Week 1. Ridley dominated the Colts for eight catches, 101 yards and a touchdown, looking every bit like the No. 1 receiver the Jaguars hoped they were getting. 

It would have been totally understandable if Ridley’s first regular season game since October 24, 2021, was a rusty affair. But Ridley spent the whole offseason telling anyone who would listen that there was no reason for him not to be better than he was in his elite 2021 season since he felt way healthier than he did then. He backed it up, big time. 

Quick hits: 

• Even though Denver lost, Broncos QB Russell Wilson looked a lot better than he did in 2022. He threw two touchdowns on the move in the red zone, which was a big problem area last year, and finished 27 of 34 for 177 yards. Denver was shorthanded in the receiving corps and that’s likely reflected in Wilson’s yards per attempt. Not a perfect start but some encouraging signs. 
• As an aside, Broncos HC Sean Payton trying an onside kick in his very first game in Denver was a perfect way to try and set the tone for the season. It very nearly paid off but the Broncos touched it just a hair too early. 
• The first start of the Jordan Love era for the Packers went off without too much of a hitch. Green Bay dominated the Bears and their new starting quarterback threw three touchdowns. The completion percentage wasn’t great and Love took one bad sack in the two-minute drive to end the half. But the strides he made were apparent. His best play was a big gain to second-round WR Jayden Reed on a crossing route where Love moved the linebacker with his eyes to create a wide-open throwing window. It’s those little things that will make a huge difference as Love tries to become the next star Packers quarterback. 
• The first-round quarterbacks all pretty much looked like rookies in their first starts, all losses. Anthony Richardson had 10 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown, but more impressively completed 64.7 percent of his passes. He went cold in the second half, though, and the Colts missed having a steady run game. C.J. Stroud had some moments of accuracy and play-making against the Ravens but the Texans were overmatched and Stroud took five sacks. And Young threw two picks on similar-looking plays to a lurking Falcons S Jessie Bates. Those mistakes loomed large in the loss, though so did the lack of separation from the Panthers receivers.