NFLTR Power Rankings

Five weeks into an NFL season is an interesting place to be. It’s long enough for most of us to confidently say which teams are Good and which teams are Bad. 

But it’s also still early — way early. The Super Bowl is more than four months out and there’s plenty of time for things to change. Consider Week 5 last year:

• Atop the standings were the Eagles as the NFL’s lone unbeaten team. Their eventual Super Bowl opponent, the Chiefs, were also 4-1. But the other two conference championship game participants were struggling. San Francisco was 3-2 but working through the shift back to QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Hardly anyone knew who Brock Purdy was. The Bengals were 2-3 and coming out of a slow start to the season by QB Joe Burrow. 
• The Green Bay Packers were 3-2 and still looked like contenders in the NFC despite a weird loss to the Giants in London, only to drop six of their next seven and fail to rally for a playoff spot. 
• The Detroit Lions, the team that ultimately kept Green Bay out of the postseason, were 1-4 and would fall to 1-6 before rallying to finish 9-8. 
• The Jets and Titans had winning records but failed to make the playoffs. Meanwhile the Seahawks, Jaguars and Bengals all had losing records but qualified for the postseason. 
• Six teams had just one win after five games (Lions, Steelers, Commanders, Panthers, Raiders and Texans). Three had winning records over the duration of the season and they combined to finish 36-35-1 in their final 12 games. 

The NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint. The way things are now is not the way things will be in December or January. So with that in mind, let’s dive into some power rankings: 

1 – San Francisco 49ers (5-0)

The 49ers have been a machine to start the season. They have won four of their first five games by double-digits, with the lone exception due to Rams HC Sean McVay choosing to kick a field goal on the last play of the game to turn a 10-point loss into a seven-point L. San Francisco’s point differential of +99 is best in the league and they just absolutely took apart the Cowboys on both sides of the ball in a 42-10 win on Sunday night. 

As long as they stay healthy, this should continue. The defense is loaded with talent. In a league of grown men trying to physically dominate each other, the 49ers actually do it the best. On offense, a skill position group featuring RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle, WR Brandon Aiyuk and WR Deebo Samuel with HC Kyle Shanahan calling the plays is nearly unstoppable. And it helps that QB Brock Purdy is playing well, too. 

2 – Philadelphia Eagles (5-0)

The Eagles got past the 49ers last year thanks in part to an injury to Purdy. They seem destined for a collision course again. Not only is Philadelphia the only other current unbeaten team, the two play in Week 13 in Philadelphia. That could be a preview of a potential heavyweight playoff bout in January. Even though the Eagles haven’t been as impressive-looking as the 49ers or even the 2022 Eagles, their strengths — QB Jalen Hurts, elite skill position talent and outstanding play on both the offensive and defensive lines — remain strong. 

3 – Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

Bad news: the Chiefs’ receiving corps looks like a major work in progress and that could be a major issue if TE Travis Kelce keeps getting banged up. 

Good news: the defense has had what feels like it’s best start to a season under DC Steve Spagnuolo and looks like a legitimately tough unit to play against. Kansas City is 11th in total defense, sixth in scoring defense, fifth in scoring percentage allowed and eighth in expected points added. 

Best news: Patrick Mahomes. Hard to drop a team with him at quarterback too far. 

4 – Miami Dolphins (4-1)

Through five games, the Dolphins’ offense is the most prolific in terms of yards in NFL history. The defense is nowhere near as dangerous but there’s talent on that side of the ball and a well-respected architect in DC Vic Fangio, so it’s reasonable to think things will improve, particularly when they get CB Jalen Ramsey back. 

It’s worth noting the best team the Dolphins have played so far beat them by 28, so Miami is still looking up at the Bills in the AFC East in some way even if they have the better record right now. There are some upcoming games against the Eagles and Chiefs that will tell us a lot about this Dolphins team. 

5 – Detroit Lions (4-1)

In case you haven’t heard, the Lions are legit. Since announcing themselves with a Week 1 win against the Chiefs, Detroit has won three straight by double-digits. The lone misstep so far was an overtime loss to the Seahawks. The offense has picked up where it left off last season in a lot of ways with QB Jared Goff playing the best football of his career and OC Ben Johnson putting on a play-calling master-class. 

What’s really keyed the step forward, however, is the defense. This unit was barely a speed block last year, but so far they have been frustrating opponents with a disruptive defensive line and scrappy, opportunistic defensive back play. Better teams might be able to expose the back end of the defense more, especially with the spate of injuries there, but the front seven spearheaded by DE Aidan Hutchinson should be able to compensate. 

6 – Buffalo Bills (3-2)

If not for the injuries on defense the Bills have taken in the past two weeks, there’s a case to be made they should be higher, perhaps No. 3 or No. 2. It’s fair to wonder how things will look on that side of the ball without No. 1 CB Tre’Davious White, star LB Matt Milano and underrated DT DaQuan Jones. There’s a cumulative impact to losing that many key contributors, and it makes any further attrition tougher to weather. 

Still, Buffalo has been impressive out of the gates again with QB Josh Allen shaking off a rough Week 1 opener to get back to the player we’re used to seeing. The Bills have the second-best point differential behind Miami and clobbered the Dolphins in Week 4, 48-20. The two sides play again in Week 18 and it’ll be interesting to see how that one goes. 

7 – Dallas Cowboys (3-2)

You can’t get hammered like the Cowboys did against the 49ers this past weekend and not come out of the game with major questions about the direction of the season, or even the franchise. And of course, some of those are fair. Dallas looked farther away from the 49ers than ever. They had no answers on either side of the ball. The play-calling and design were justifiably criticized, as was QB Dak Prescott. 

Still, don’t get it twisted. The Cowboys are better than the majority of other teams this year. Their skill talent on offense needs to play better but they do have weapons. The offensive line is getting healthier and will be able to impose itself on other opponents. There remains depth and talent on a defense that was No. 1 in the league before Sunday. I’m not going to drop them too far down the rankings off one game. 

8 – Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

The Ravens have looked like the better team in all five of their games this year but dropped two they had no business losing. Baltimore let the Colts and Steelers hang around too long with mistakes and sloppy play and ended up paying the price. They have to clean that up. I do think they’re capable of doing that and looking a lot better at the end of the year than the beginning. They should be getting players back from injury and I think the offense will look better with more time under new OC Todd Monken.

9 – Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)

Although the Jaguars had the advantage of already being in London for a week compared to the Bills, their decisive victory over one of the best teams in the conference remains impressive. It’s been a slow start to the season but this was the kind of Jacksonville team most people expected to see. It still looks too hard on offense and the defense needs to improve in the pass rush department but the former should hopefully improve with more time. 

10 – Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

Seattle stumbled in Week 1 against a Rams team we have since learned is better than most expected. They also lost both starting tackles in that game. Since then, they’re the only team to beat the Lions and have taken care of business in convincing fashion against bottom-of-the-barrel opponents like the Panthers and Giants. The defense looks feisty and QB Geno Smith has dispelled concerns about being a one-year wonder. They’re a potential riser in the coming weeks. 

11 – Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

After an 0-2 start to the season, the Chargers have bounced back to even their record and put themselves right back into the mix. From a talent perspective, the Chargers belong in this range but they need to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Even last week’s win against the Raiders ended up being far closer than it needed to be. Los Angeles’ next game is against the Cowboys on Monday night — a game that people are sure to react to rationally no matter the result either way. 

12 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

If I was going to break this rank into tiers, I would have a gap here. There are a number of teams on either side of .500 who could still see the season go either up or down. Or put another way, this group of teams I’m not confident in declaring good or bad yet. 

Tampa Bay has definitely exceeded my expectations and most outside guesses about how they’d look in 2023. Helped by first-year OC Dave Canales, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is playing as well as we’ve seen since 2020, taking care of the ball and making plays on third down. The rest of the roster still had plenty of talent left over from the Brady era. The Bucs were beat down by the Eagles and have another measuring stick game against the Lions this week. 

13 – Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)

This is an aggressive ranking for a team that just picked up its second win of the season. But the Bengals won by two scores against a Cardinals team that has been giving opponents all they can handle so far this season, 1-4 record aside. More importantly, QB Joe Burrow finally looked like the player we’ve been accustomed to seeing. His calf has healed well enough to release him from the shackles of the pocket, and his mobility was on display this past week against Arizona. The defense had its best game of the season, too. However, the next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills will be tough. Cincinnati has already used up quite a bit of its margin for error. 

14 – Cleveland Browns (2-2)

I have the Browns below the Bengals despite Cleveland’s convincing Week 1 win because since then there’s been a lot more uncertainty injected into their outlook for the rest of 2023. Starting QB Deshaun Watson has struggled outside of one game and now is hurt. They don’t have RB Nick Chubb to lean on, either. If there’s a bright side, it’s a ferocious-looking defense that can absolutely keep them in most games. 

15 – Los Angeles Rams (2-3)

The Rams didn’t have the horses to beat the Eagles in Week 5, but with WR Cooper Kupp back in the fold and QB Matthew Stafford back to his gunslinging ways, plus DT Aaron Donald on a defense that’s played a lot better than people expected, this team has enough star power to make a run at a wildcard berth. They just have to stay healthy, because this is not a deep team. 

16 – New Orleans Saints (3-2)

New starting QB Derek Carr has had a hard time hitting the ground running. The Saints can still challenge for the NFC South title but need more from Carr and the offense. Fortunately, the defense has remained outstanding and should keep them in a lot of ballgames. 

17 – Indianapolis Colts (3-2)

We can probably expect a little less variance, both good and bad, from the Colts for the next few weeks with QB Gardner Minshew starting instead of first-round QB Anthony Richardson, who already looked like an electric dual-threat talent. Indianapolis has a clear identity on offense and first-year HC Shane Steichen has had a good first year so far on that side of the ball. The secondary is a major weakness but there are pieces to build with in the front seven. The Colts won’t be pushovers even if they have an uphill battle to make the playoffs. 

18 – Green Bay Packers (2-3)

So far the Packers look like a young team. They won a game against the Saints they had no business winning and lost games to the Falcons and Raiders that they probably should have won. Starting QB Jordan Love was one of the NFL leaders in touchdowns in the first three weeks, and since then he’s thrown five interceptions in the past two weeks. Buckle in for a rollercoaster ride the rest of the way. 

19 – Atlanta Falcons (3-2)

Despite the winning record, I’m not buying the Falcons. They’re one of two teams with a winning record with a negative point differential. The defense is a lot better this year and they have legitimate skill position talent. But QB Desmond Ridder has been holding them back more often than not to start the season, and unless he takes a major step forward, that doesn’t figure to change. 

20 – Houston Texans (2-3)

As the Texans get healthier on the offensive line and potentially more balanced on offense with more of an ability to hurt teams on the ground, they could rise up these power rankings because first-round QB C.J. Stroud has been outstanding. He set a new NFL record for most pass attempts to start a career without an interception. You can see signs of progress on defense under the tutelage of HC DeMeco Ryans as well. 

21 – Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

Despite the 3-2 record, the Steelers somehow have a -31 point differential. To their credit, they made the Ravens and Browns pay for letting them hang around with sloppy mistakes. Teams who have run more efficient operations like the 49ers and Texans have had no issue with Pittsburgh, however. The defense is 30th in yards allowed, which if that holds up would be the worst mark allowed in franchise history. The offense continues to struggle under the watch of OC Matt Canada. The jury’s still out on QB Kenny Pickett but the team has too much skill talent to be struggling to put up points. 

22 – Minnesota Vikings (1-4)

If it weren’t for the hamstring injury to WR Justin Jefferson, I would have the Vikings five or six spots higher. Unlike last season, Minnesota has been on the wrong end of some bad luck. They’re closer to average than bad. The loss of Jefferson, who is one of the NFL’s best players period, is going to be a major challenge to the team’s hopes of pulling out of this freefall. 

23 – Tennessee Titans (2-3)

The Titans are just a weird team to try to figure out right now. They beat the Chargers in overtime and clobbered the Bengals, but were clobbered in turn by the Browns and lost relatively close games to the Saints and Colts. They’re 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road, for whatever that’s worth. If the Titans can establish the ground game and their front seven can cover for a shaky secondary, they can have success. Otherwise games can get out of hand. 

24 – Washington Commanders (2-3)

What’s interesting about the start to Washington’s season so far is that after a 2-0 start and nearly pulling off an overtime upset against the Eagles, the tenor has shifted dramatically after being blown out 40-20 by the previously hapless Bears. The Commanders are getting okay quarterback play out of Sam Howell. He’s making plenty of mistakes, including taking a ton of sacks, but he also has a live arm and some playmaking ability. If Washington’s defense was playing as well as people expected coming into this year, the Commanders would be frisky. But yet again that side of the ball is underperforming under DC Jack Del Rio and HC Ron Rivera. Last year they figured things out and got much better after the opening weeks. They’ll need to do that again to have a chance of keeping their jobs. 

25 – New York Jets (2-3)

I have to give credit to Jets QB Zach Wilson, who looks like he’ll remain the starter through the bye week after upgrading his game beyond basement levels. The Jets have a good defense and good skill position talent, though the offensive line took a big hit with the loss of its best player, OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, to a season-ending Achilles injury. Wilson is still too much of an anchor to expect them to do much damage over the rest of the season, however. 

26 – Chicago Bears (1-4)

The Bears and specifically QB Justin Fields deserve a lot of credit for coming out of an absolutely dismal start to the season and rebounding on offense over the past two weeks. Fields looks viable again and the offense has put together back-to-back strong weeks — albeit against some weak competition. 

27 – Las Vegas Raiders (2-3)

Las Vegas takes on the Patriots and Bears next, and can prove it belongs a tier higher by winning both of those. So far the Raiders look very much like a rebuilding team, with a struggling offensive line and a talent deficit on defense, though there are some individual standouts over on that side of the ball. Raiders HC Josh McDaniels is also making poor in-game decisions a habit, which could cost them more wins. 

28 – Arizona Cardinals (1-4)

There has been a ton of positive press about the Cardinals for simply not being the worst team in football like everyone expected. To their credit, they beat Dallas by 12 points and have led in four of five games this season, excluding the loss to the 49ers. Realistically though, there’s still enough of a talent gap between them and other teams to keep them in the NFL cellar. 

29 – New England Patriots (1-4)

Maybe things aren’t really this bad. But after back-to-back blowout losses, the two worst of HC Bill Belichick’s career, it’s understandable that the New England area is freaking out. This is not a good team. The offensive line is injured and porous, the offensive weapons are blunt and don’t scare opponents, QB Mac Jones is regressing hard and the injury-riddled defense is starting to collapse under the weight of carrying the season with no support from the offense. All of the problems Belichick brought upon himself over the past few years are finally catching up to him. 

30 – Denver Broncos (1-4)

What’s been lost in the horrendous start to the season for the Broncos — one that’s been worse than last year’s disaster — is that the offense under HC Sean Payton has actually been solid. We’re not seeing peak play from QB Russell Wilson but he looks like a viable NFL quarterback again. The challenge is the defense might threaten for the title of one of the worst to step on the field in NFL history, punctuated by allowing 70 points to the Dolphins a few weeks ago. 

31 – New York Giants (1-4)

Just about everything that could go wrong for the Giants has gone wrong. Injuries have hit an offensive line that wasn’t deep to begin with, and they’ve had a major impact on QB Daniel Jones who has regressed closer to the player who had his fifth-year option declined by the team, as opposed to the version last year that earned a $40 million a year deal. Losing RB Saquon Barkley hasn’t helped the offense, either, and now Jones is hurt, too. 

32 – Carolina Panthers (0-5)

There are a couple of other teams who feel like bigger disasters at the moment, but the Panthers have earned the bottom spot by virtue of their winless record to this point. They’re unlikely to break into the win column against the Dolphins this week either. At this point, the goal needs to be getting first-round QB Bryce Young in a position to succeed like his contemporaries in this past draft class and maybe winning enough games so that they’re not sending the No. 1 pick over to Chicago.