NFLTR Review: Gearing Up For The 2023 QB Carousel

By
Logan Ulrich
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This offseason is shaping up to be another big one for quarterback movement. This week in a monster issue of NFLTR Review:

  • Landing spots for Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo and more
  • Teams with obvious QB needs and others who could shake up the picture
  • Which teams are in danger of being left out when the music stops?

The Big Picture: The 2023 QB Carousel

Once again, the quarterback carousel is gearing up to spin this offseason — and if it slows down from what we’ve seen in recent seasons, it won’t be by much. Since 2020, the list of big-name quarterbacks to change teams includes Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and more. Some worked out better than others but the demand for quarterbacks isn’t going down anytime soon. The expectation in the coming months is for several teams once again to aggressively try and upgrade at the position. 

Because quarterback is the most important position in football, the moves teams make to address the position will control most of the dominoes that fall in the 2023 offseason. As we start to shift into that part of the calendar, it’s important to understand the landscape across the league. Which teams are set at the position? Which teams, obvious or not so obvious, will look to make a move? And most importantly, what are the available options?

We’ll tackle the landscape first, separating the different teams and their quarterbacks into different buckets. 

Elite/Established

Focus less on “elite” and more on “established.” These are all quarterbacks who have demonstrated they can play at a high level and who have been committed to by their teams contractually — or will be soon. There might be concerns down the road about Stafford’s longevity, but Rams GM Les Snead is probably going to make that Future Les Snead’s problem. For 2023, Stafford is at least one piece of the puzzle the Rams have locked up. 

Murray may be coming off a torn ACL but he’s the only thing giving the Arizona franchise hope that it’s not about to slip back into irrelevance. He looked like one of the league’s best young quarterbacks at one point. His development has stalled but the talent remains, and if Arizona put him on the trade block there would be no shortage of buyers. That won’t happen this year at least. 

The bottom line: nearly every other team wants to be in this group when it comes to quarterback.

Arrow Up

There’s a compelling case for Lawrence to be a tier higher but I just want to see a little more growth from him. In a lot of ways, this past season was basically his rookie year. This playoff game will be valuable experience and I fully expect him to keep ascending next season. 

Pittsburgh operates conservatively as an organization, so I expect them to give Pickett tons of time to sink or swim on his own. There have been some rough moments as a rookie, including a stark lack of touchdown passes, but he’s also played a major role in how the Steelers went from 2-6 to a winning record at 9-8. 

Fields needs to take a step forward as a passer, and both he and the Chicago brass have made it a point to say that as they look ahead to 2023. But he was such a unique and dynamic weapon in rough circumstances this past season. There’s a lot of promise to build on for Fields and the Bears in 2023, and a better supporting cast could be huge. 

As for Tagovailoa, the concussions this year have created an unfortunate cloud around what was otherwise a huge breakout season. In addition, it looked like defenses were starting to find some answers to the scheme crafted by HC Mike McDaniel that Tagovailoa was running so well. Questions about Tagovailoa’s durability and ceiling are fair long-term, and it’ll be interesting to see what the Dolphins do about his fifth-year option in May. Overall though, this year was a promising step. 

None of these four teams — Jacksonville, Chicago, Pittsburgh or Miami — should be in the market for anything more than a backup this year. 

Too Early To Tell

The second year for Jones was not nearly as promising as the first. New England’s offense as a whole took a massive step backward, which I guess is to be expected when you transition from Josh McDaniels, one of the most respected offensive playcallers in the NFL, to Matt Patricia, a former defensive coordinator. Jones never really looked comfortable but he also struggled to transcend his surroundings, leaving doubts about his future that weren’t as prominent in August. 

It would still be a surprise if the Patriots went in a different direction this soon. This upcoming season is an important one for Jones, however, as the team will need to make a decision on his fifth-year option afterward. 

While the Patriots need to see more from Jones, the 49ers just need to see Lance — period. He’s had precious few NFL reps with a season-ending ankle injury taking away what was supposed to be his debut as a starter in 2022. He’ll be going into his third year as an almost complete wildcard for a 49ers squad that has legit championship aspirations. 

To make things even more complicated, seventh-round QB Brock Purdy has been terrific for San Francisco since the season-ending injury to veteran QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s done more than keep the 49ers above water, with him under center the team hasn’t missed a beat and is in the midst of a 10-game winning streak. At a minimum, he’s earned the right to compete for the starting job next year, if not enter camp as the frontrunner. And looming over all of this as another potential complicating factor is the availability of a certain GOAT quarterback who grew up rooting for the 49ers as a kid and has expressed a desire to play for the team in the past…

It’s more likely than not that both Jones and Lance stay with their respective teams in 2023, even if they don’t end up starting. This is where the possibilities of quarterback movement start, however. 

Contract

There is a high chance, probably 80-90 percent, that these four quarterbacks are all back with the same team in 2023. But there are some contractual factors worth discussing that make it less than 100 percent for each. 

In the case of Jackson, he’s in the final year of his rookie deal with the Ravens and the two sides have yet to make much progress on a long-term deal due to a standoff about full guarantees. Baltimore is loath to turn what has been a one-off situation in the past with other quarterback deals into a precedent. If Jackson doesn’t relent — and that seems doubtful at this point — he can force the Ravens to use the franchise tag on him this offseason and next offseason. They could tag him a third time in 2025 but the cost would be so high at that point as to be prohibitive. 

That means as long as Jackson is willing to shoulder the risk of serious injury, he could outlast the Ravens and leverage his way to unrestricted free agency in 2025. If the Ravens are equally determined not to break precedent on full guarantees, they face losing Jackson for nothing at that point. A trade would be a preferable alternative, and that would have to happen at some point during the offseason in 2023 or 2024. 

It makes more sense to test Jackson’s resolve by tagging him this season, albeit at the costly sum of $45 million on the exclusive tender, and make him play out the 2023 season. If everyone is still dug in, then a trade makes more sense in 2024. Still, we saw some teams decide early they weren’t going to get a deal done with a player and move to cut the cord quickly to avoid prolonged drama. It’s always possible the Ravens could go that direction. For now though, it seems like a long shot.

Jones and Smith are also both in contract years and both are franchise tag candidates by their respective teams. One way or another, both should be back in New York and Seattle respectively for the 2023 season, the bigger question is whether it’s on a long-term deal or on the tag. 

In Smith’s case, the Seahawks also have a top-ten pick at their disposal. The veteran has been tremendous this season, but you can’t completely discount the idea of Seattle taking a quarterback if they have a high grade on someone, especially since Smith is 32 and is due for a sizable raise. There’s not really a middle ground for quarterback salaries. Any extension for Smith will probably be around $35-$40 million per year, which will impact the team’s ability to build around him. That will be an interesting wrinkle in negotiations. 

New York has just one franchise tag to use between Jones and RB Saquon Barkley, which means one will likely need to be signed to a long-term deal. If it’s Jones, that’s where the Giants could run into some challenges, again because there’s not a middle ground for quarterback salaries. Even though Jones took a step forward in 2022, he only had 15 touchdown passes and it was hard to call the Giants an effective passing offense. His supporting cast wasn’t good but is Jones the type of quarterback who can effectively run a top passing offense? There’s only one way to find out, and the Giants probably want to avoid committing too much to Jones in case the answer is no. 

Finally, there’s Wilson, who a year ago was put into the elite column by us and just about everyone else. Obviously that’s not how the 2022 season played out, and if Wilson hadn’t signed a monster contract extension right before the season started, things might be playing out differently in Denver. As it is, they’re essentially handcuffed to him for another year unless a team wants to trade for him after June 1. There are too many logistical challenges for that to be a realistic scenario. 

Old Heads

There’s a real chance one or both of these players retire this offseason. It also seems like there’s a real chance both are back for another season in 2023. I have no clue which is more likely at this point. 

Reliable Veterans

No one will mistake anyone in this group for an elite player but in the right circumstances, a team could win a lot of games with one of these quarterbacks. 

Minnesota hitched its wagon to Cousins for this season and while it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster, he’s been highly productive yet again. He’ll be entering another contract year in 2023 so it will be interesting to see how the Vikings handle those negotiations to potentially free up some cap space. It’ll also be interesting to see if they start looking at some younger options to groom behind Cousins as a potential upgrade. 

Tannehill was initially a great fit for the system in Tennessee, but as his supporting cast has deteriorated, so has his production. He’s entering the final year of his contract and is 34, so there are some legitimate questions about how much longer he’ll be with the Titans. They have the No. 11 pick, so it’s possible they could be eyeing a younger successor. Although they took Malik Willis in the third round this past offseason, he still has a long way to go to even be counted on as a backup, as their decision to turn to Joshua Dobbs down the stretch made clear. 

Carr believes his best football is ahead of him and he could be right. He seemed on the verge of a big year this past offseason after legitimately growing his game over the past few seasons under Jon Gruden. He wasn’t a good fit with McDaniels, however, and his fit with his next team will be crucial. All quarterbacks are dependent on their environment but Carr seems more sensitive than most. 

Detroit seems happy with Goff and they have the luxury of being patient. On a team with talent at the skill positions, a strong offensive line and a quality play-caller — all of which the Lions have right now — Goff has shown he can do enough to get all the way to the Super Bowl. The Lions can continue to use their plentiful draft capital to keep building the team around Goff and make themselves a quality landing spot if an opportunity comes up to upgrade. Or they can do their research and take a swing on a rookie to groom behind Goff. 

Garoppolo will be in this bucket for some teams but not others. Teams with coaches from either the Shanahan or New England tree will have a higher grade on Garoppolo than others. There are questions about how well he’ll do once he gets outside of the 49ers ecosystem that has managed to get decent quarterback play out of guys like Nick Mullens, Brian Hoyer and now Purdy. Those concerns could be mitigated if he lands in a familiar environment. 

Reclamation projects

If you squint, you can maybe see some upside, but more likely than not these guys are bridge options at best. The last time we saw Mayfield play good football was in 2020 when the Browns had him in more of a game manager role. If he understood and accepted that’s where he fits in the NFL, he could have a long and productive career still. Otherwise, he’s going to run out of chances sooner rather than later. 

Winston’s bad habits popped back up this past season. He tossed five interceptions in three games in 2022 after throwing just three in seven starts in 2021. A back injury knocked him from the lineup and new HC Dennis Allen ended up preferring the steadier hand of Andy Dalton. Most NFL coaches are like Allen. 

For the second straight season, Wentz had a chance to cement his spot on a new team by playing them into the playoffs. And he failed to come through for the second straight year. His time as a starter in the NFL is almost certainly over, and he doesn’t seem like the kind of player who wants to sign on for a backup role. It’s quite possible we’ve seen the last of him in the NFL. 

There are some teams and quarterbacks not mentioned here, but the next section will cover them adequately. 

Current 2023 Projected Starters

If we were to skip the offseason and just fast forward to Week 1, here’s who’s currently slated to be the starting quarterback for each team. This helps make it obvious which teams need to be really aggressive in making a move:

2023 projected starters
AFC NFC
Patrick Mahomes Jalen Hurts
Josh Allen Dak Prescott
Joe Burrow Kyler Murray
Justin Herbert
Matthew Stafford
Lamar Jackson Kirk Cousins
Deshaun Watson Justin Fields
Trevor Lawrence Geno Smith
Tua Tagovailoa Daniel Jones
Kenny Pickett
Trey Lance/Brock Purdy
Russell Wilson Jared Goff
Ryan Tannehill
Aaron Rodgers/Jordan Love
Mac Jones
Desmond Ridder
Jarrett Stidham Jameis Winston
Zach Wilson Sam Howell
Davis Mills Matt Corral
Sam Ehlinger Blaine Gabbert

 

There are nine teams who are in major need of quarterback help. When looking at potential landing spots for the available quarterbacks, this is where the list should start: 

  • Buccaneers
  • Colts
  • Commanders
  • Falcons
  • Jets
  • Panthers
  • Raiders
  • Saints
  • Texans

As you can probably guess, the demand is going to outstrip the supply. Depending on what happens, there could only be around three veteran options who will generate a high level of interest as either a trade target or in free agency. Those include:

The pre-draft process has barely begun but at this point, it looks like there are four potential first-round quarterbacks. You can read more about their strengths and weaknesses at the link, but they include: 

  • Alabama QB Bryce Young
  • Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud
  • Florida QB Anthony Richardson
  • Kentucky QB Will Levis

After that, it gets dicey…

Bridge QBs
Backups/dart throws
Baker Mayfield Gardner Minshew
Jameis Winston* Mike White
Matt Ryan* Jarrett Stidham
Jacoby Brissett Sam Darnold
Marcus Mariota* Cooper Rush
Andy Dalton Taylor Heinicke
Carson Wentz* Mason Rudolph
Teddy Bridgewater Drew Lock

*under contract but expected cut

Players in the bridge quarterback category are capable of holding things down until a younger player is ready to step in but shouldn’t be counted on as starters ideally. If a team has to dip into the dart throw pool, they’re basically crossing their fingers and hoping they stumble into another Geno Smith. 

But again, we have at least nine teams in need of help at quarterback and only seven or so “good” options. So it’s going to be a game of musical chairs with the teams left at the end forced to talk themselves into someone like Mayfield or Dalton. 

2023 QB Landing Spots

We can start with trade and free agency, as this happens before the draft. As mentioned earlier, assuming the Ravens tag Jackson and the Giants and Seahawks tag/extend Jones and Smith, the best remaining available options would be Carr, Brady and Garoppolo. 

Landing Spots For Derek Carr

Carr should be the first domino to fall because the Raiders have to make a decision on him by a few days after the Super Bowl, otherwise they owe him $40 million in guarantees. Carr should have a fair amount of trade value but his no-trade clause and this deadline actually make it a tricky situation for Las Vegas. He has more incentives to reach unrestricted free agency, where he could have his pick of teams and earn more than $40 million guaranteed, than he does to facilitate a trade for a Raiders team that dumped him after nine seasons. If he refuses to waive his no-trade clause, the Raiders will have to release him with nothing in return. 

Other teams know this too, so it’s doubtful the Raiders are offered much in a trade, especially considering the significant salary an acquiring team will take on for Carr. The preference would be to spend cash only, not picks. You have to also think Carr’s camp would prefer that draft pick be used to build up his new team, not go to the Raiders. Still, he could elect to be classy on his way out the door and work with the Raiders one last time. 

One way or another, Carr is going to be able to dictate a lot of this process. He hasn’t said anything about his preferences, other than his goal of winning a Super Bowl, but it’s probably fair to assume coaching he believes in and a strong supporting cast will be prominent on his wishlist for a new team. Four teams stand out:

Jets

In terms of overall roster, the Jets are probably the best positioned team out of the ones who will be in the market this offseason. The offensive line needs work but there are pieces to work with. The same is true of the skill positions. New York’s defense would easily be the best Carr has ever had in his entire career. 

Jets HC Robert Saleh is pretty highly thought of around the league, but the instability on the offensive coaching staff is a question mark. Though Carr has never played in a Shanahan system, it would have been a strong fit. A new hire might have a stronger connection to Carr, however. The Jets have work to do to clear up their books this offseason but owner Woody Johnson indicated they were willing to do what it took to land a quarterback upgrade, as they view it as the last piece to put their team in the mix to contend. 

Commanders

There are a lot of parallels with the Jets here. Washington also pushed hard for a playoff spot but couldn’t overcome poor quarterback play in the end. Both teams have strong defenses and skill position talent with question marks along the offensive line and defensive-minded, player-friendly head coaches. Ownership instability is a much bigger issue for the Commanders than it is for the Jets but who knows how much weight Carr will give that? 

The Commanders are also hiring a new offensive coordinator, but there’s more familiarity already built-in on the staff with the presence of DC Jack Del Rio, who was the head coach for the Raiders during Carr’s best seasons. Commanders HC Ron Rivera has indicated a willingness to be aggressive to solve the quarterback position and that familiarity could give them extra conviction to close the deal with Carr. 

Buccaneers

Should Tampa Bay need to replace Brady this offseason, their options will be limited. They’ll be picking too far back in the draft order to realistically have a shot at a replacement, although they could trade up. There will be a reckoning for all of the dead money they’ve pushed forward to try and maximize their window of contention with Brady, so some good players will be allowed to walk and others will be cut. 

There’s a lot of talent in Tampa Bay, though, and the NFC South remains wide open. If Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles and OC Byron Leftwich — or whoever is calling the plays in 2023 — can sell Carr on what they’re building, he’s young enough to be their starter for several more seasons. Instead of rebuilding without Brady, they could reload around Carr. 

Falcons

The Falcons don’t look like a contending team right now. But with a few different moves, they could quickly become a team on the rise. Atlanta has some promising young skill position talent with TE Kyle Pitts and WR Drake London, a mauling offensive line, an innovative play-caller in HC Arthur Smith and $70 million in cap space plus a top-ten pick to fortify the defense and anything else that needs fixing. That could include quarterback. 

The catch here is that Carr and Smith will have to feel each other out. Smith is on the record as being generally opposed to big free agent signings, as it can be tough to invest so much in a player you don’t really know as a person. He did work with former Titans OC Todd Downing who was Carr’s QB coach for his best seasons in Oakland, so there is a potential resource to lean on. As for Carr, he’ll need a compelling pitch as to why the Falcons are a better option for him than the Jets or Commanders. But this remains a darkhorse landing spot worth watching. 

Landing Spots For Tom Brady

There are two big questions Brady is going to need to answer by the start of the league year in March. Is he retiring? And if he plays another season, where does he want to be? Brady’s contract with Tampa Bay expires after this season, and it probably is going out on a sour note unless they can turn what’s been a letdown 8-9 season into a Super Bowl run. The Bucs have looked punchless too often without former HC Bruce Arians this season, and Brady’s frustration has been palpable. 

If Brady’s goal is to win another Super Bowl, there’s something to be said for the familiarity of what’s been built around him in Tampa Bay. This is a relationship that feels like it’s run its course, though, even if Bowles was willing to fire Leftwich and bring in a less conservative offensive coordinator. (Hint; Bowles is a pretty conservative coach, too). So where to next for Brady?

Raiders

Las Vegas was reportedly one of the teams Brady considered during his first free-agent foray back in 2020. If he’s looking for a window to win, there’s a lot the Raiders can pitch to him three years later. There’s no other system Brady would be as familiar with as the one run by HC Josh McDaniels. Davante Adams would be the best wide receiver he’s thrown to since Randy Moss, and together that tandem might even be able to challenge the records Brady and Moss set. Raiders TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow aren’t slouches either. 

The catch would be the offensive line and defense, which were part of what held the Raiders back this past season. The ball is in Brady’s court too, and we don’t know how he would feel about working for McDaniels again. Still, if we’re connecting dots, there are an awful lot of dots to connect here. 

49ers

Another team reportedly high on Brady’s list in 2020, the 49ers elected to stick with Brady’s former backup, Garoppolo, at the time. Since then, 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan has acknowledged that he maybe sometimes thinks about if that was the right call…

Brady grew up rooting for the 49ers and they have a tremendous team with a tremendous coach. They’re on their third-string quarterback and still look like potential Super Bowl contenders. There’s a lot to like from his perspective. 

The bigger question is whether San Francisco wants to pursue Brady. There’s a lot of roster flexibility afforded to them by having Purdy and Lance on cheap rookie contracts. Brady won’t cost $50 million but he won’t be cheap either. However, if they don’t get over the hump this year, it’s something they’ll have to think long and hard about. 

Jets

When Brady was picking teams in 2020, location was a major factor. He wanted to remain on the East Coast to be able to stay in closer contact with his oldest son who lives in New York. He also has an apartment in the city, so the idea of playing in New York could be quite compelling. 

The Jets have a lot on their roster to sell Brady on as well, as we’ve outlined in some other sections. With the changes on the coaching staff, there’s potential to bring in someone Brady views in high regard, which would fix the lack of personal ties to Brady in the organization currently. And coming to the Jets would give Brady an opportunity to beat the Patriots twice a year…

The Raiders and 49ers make more sense for the reasons already outlined. But I think the Jets could be an intriguing fit depending on what Brady is looking for. 

Titans

There’s a connection here with Titans HC Mike Vrabel that shouldn’t be discounted. But Tennessee looks to be on the verge of a rebuilding season and that’s probably not appealing to Brady. Then again, maybe Vrabel has a quick rebuild in mind, fueled by the addition of Brady. I just think there are too many holes to plug in one year. 

If the Titans did make a move for Brady or any other major quarterback addition, Tannehill makes a lot of sense as a trade target for the Falcons. 

Patriots

Figuring out how he wants to end his career surely has to be on Brady’s mind as he weighs his options for 2023. So the idea of coming home can’t be ruled out. While the offensive system is different, Brady still has tons of familiarity with everything in New England, including of course HC Bill Belichick. The two men seemed to part on decent enough terms, and the idea of a reunion has already been floated by certain beat reporters. 

A few things would need to happen, though. The Patriots would need to invest significantly in upgrading at wide receiver and on the offensive line. They have the cap space and draft picks to do it but it requires buy-in from Belichick. Hiring a coach that has familiarity with Brady to replace Matt Patricia would also be a must. 

This obviously would send Mac Jones to the bench, and it could mean a few different things. He’s still on his rookie contract for two more seasons, plus a fifth-year option, so he could be kept around to learn behind Brady for a year, maybe two. They don’t have to trade him, even if he requests it. But they could decide it’s the best thing to do. Belief in Jones may have been shaken after this past season, and it was a point of conflict between Belichick and Brady the first time around that Belichick was planning a succession. 

That’s also why it might be unrealistic to expect Belichick to change his mind and bring Brady back, as it would be conceding failure in some ways. Then again, crazier things have happened. 

Landing Spots For Jimmy Garoppolo

This offseason should be much simpler for Garoppolo. He’ll be healthy, with his rehab for a foot injury going well. And the injury also made it clear that whoever the 49ers quarterback of the future is going to be, it won’t be him. He has a no-tag clause in his contract and will be free to pursue other options as an unrestricted free agent in March. He should be in fairly high demand:

Raiders

This is the other name the Raiders have been linked to as their alternative to Carr. McDaniels knows Garoppolo well after being part of the brain trust that drafted and developed him in New England, and the thought would be that familiarity would help Garoppolo have more success maximizing the current pieces on offense than Carr did. It’s a compelling destination for Garoppolo as well, who stays close to the West Coast and lands on a team with a lot of weapons and a coach he knows. The only catch is whether Las Vegas can get Brady. 

Jets

This made way more sense before the Jets fired OC Mike LaFleur, as it would have been a seamless transition for Garoppolo coming from San Francisco. Saleh still knows Garoppolo well but the early indications are he’ll go outside the Shanahan coaching tree for an offensive hire, which could make Garoppolo less of a fit. Garoppolo’s injury history is also a big question mark and why he’s probably a lower priority for teams in the veteran starter market. 

If the Jets can’t get Carr or Brady, though, their options to upgrade at quarterback are limited, and the current regime of Saleh and GM Joe Douglas pretty much needs to make the playoffs to ensure they’re brought back in 2024. Garoppolo’s not an elite quarterback but the Jets might not need him to be if they can patch a few holes on offense and rely on an outstanding defense. 

Commanders

Before Garoppolo’s shoulder surgery killed his trade market last offseason, Washington was prepared to trade for him instead of Wentz. So it would stand to reason that Garoppolo will end up high on their list once again in 2023. From his perspective, the skill position group is appealing and he should have a decent defense to lean on. Fixing the offensive line will be a priority for the Commanders and they’ll have a new offensive coordinator, which is a bit of an unknown. If they hire from the Shanahan or McDaniels tree, that would be a plus for the fit. 

Saints

As things stand right now, the Saints don’t have a first-round pick — though perhaps they eventually get one for trading Payton. They also don’t have a ton of cap flexibility, so it will be fascinating to see how they go about addressing their hole at quarterback in 2023. Winston remains under contract but it feels more likely that he’s cut than brought back as the starter. Garoppolo could be an option if his market is weaker than expected. 

Landing Spots For Baker Mayfield

Once the quarterback carousel starts slowing down, some teams are going to have to make the best of the leftovers. And I think many of them could be drawn to Mayfield compared to the rest of the available options. He’s a former No. 1 pick and even in his struggles the past two years he’s shown glimpses of what made the Browns fall in love with him at that slot. He won’t cost much, either. 

Raiders

McDaniels and the Patriots were rumored to be big fans of Mayfield as a prospect in 2018. If Las Vegas strikes out on Brady and Garoppolo and doesn’t feel like it can get a quarterback in the draft, Mayfield is a name to keep in mind as an alternative for the Raiders. 

Saints

Mayfield drew some — in hindsight misguided — comparisons to Drew Brees coming out of Oklahoma. So maybe New Orleans is interested in taking a shot as they continue to try and find a replacement for Brees. 

Buccaneers

If Brady leaves, they’re staring at 17 games of Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask. It’s worth gambling on Mayfield. 

Rookie Quarterback Landing Spots

I should caveat we are still months out from the draft and a LOT is going to change. But if we just looked at the teams that needed a quarterback and picked early in the draft, the four first-round quarterbacks could all go off the board in the top 10. 

  • Texans (No. 2)
  • Colts (No. 4)
  • Raiders (No. 7)
  • Falcons (No. 8)
  • Panthers (No. 9)

How teams evaluate these four prospects is going to be huge, as it will dictate who slides further than expected or which teams make a move up to get their guy. The Bears leaping the Texans at the last minute for the No. 1 pick opens the door for massive ripple effects, however. If a team wants to get ahead of Houston for Young, Stroud or whoever, it puts Chicago in a position to get a massive haul back. Even a small jump, like back to No. 4 with the Colts, could be lucrative. The Jets gave Indianapolis three second-round picks to move from No. 6 to No. 3 for Darnold in 2018. 

Chicago presumably wouldn’t want to drop much further than No. 4 in a dream world, as it would allow them to take a top defensive prospect like Georgia DT Jalen Carter or Alabama DE Will Anderson. If a team like the Panthers, Commanders or a mystery team put enough on the table, though, they could be convinced. 

Predictions

The neat thing about looking at all of these quarterback landing spots is the impact they all will have on each other. What the Commanders do will affect the Jets, which will affect the Raiders which affects the Panthers, and so on and back and forth. There are a ton of possible combinations, but if I were to mock things out based on my gut today, this is how I have things falling: 

Commanders: Derek Carr

Both Washington and New York are desperate. In the end, I think Carr will feel more at home with the Commanders than the Jets. 

Raiders: Tom Brady

I don’t really have a good feel for what Brady will do. This makes the most sense and is the simplest option for now. Which probably means it won’t happen. 

Jets: Jimmy Garoppolo

If this is how things shake out, they don’t have much of a choice. Garoppolo is their best option. But if Brady retires or goes elsewhere, the Raiders sign Garoppolo and the Jets still miss out on Carr? It could be ugly. 

Texans: Bryce Young

The Colts make the most sense to trade up to No. 1, but GM Chris Ballard generally likes big players. Young is quite small. And if they’re not trading up for Young, do they need to move up to No. 1? Lot’s to sort out and it’s simpler to just leave Young here. 

Colts: Will Levis

Levis has a reputation as a hard-nosed player. That along with his size, arm strength and experience in an NFL offense are things I can see Indianapolis falling in love with. 

Falcons: C.J. Stroud

I don’t think Desmond Ridder showed enough to end the season to make the Falcons go in a different direction if they have a high grade on Stroud. 

Panthers: Anthony Richardson/Jacoby Brissett

Carolina might be able to sit tight and land Richardson, but more often than not teams have to trade up to get quarterbacks. The front office has made it clear the preference is to draft and develop a quarterback, so I expect them to be aggressive if that’s what it takes. Brissett makes a lot of sense as a bridge starter as well depending on who the coaching hire ultimately is. 

Buccaneers: Jameis Winston

This would be a bit of a weird reunion, but it might be one of necessity given how limited each side’s options could be this offseason. The same front office that took Winston No. 1 overall remains in place, for what it’s worth. 

Saints: Baker Mayfield

A higher upside option than Dalton, who also would make a lot of sense to bring back. 

This Week In Football

  • The end of the regular season brought an avalanche of news. It would have been easy to miss something. Fortunately we’ve got you covered on all the major developments, most of them centered around the launch of the hiring cycle. Five teams so far will be looking for new head coaches. Two more need a new general manager. All of the candidates and interview progress so far can be found at our tracker, but here’s a quick-hit on the most important things to know so far. 
    • Broncos: Denver’s swinging big, including going after former Saints HC Sean Payton. If he turns it down, Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh appears to be the other leader, with Cowboys DC Dan Quinn wrapping up a top three. 
    • Cardinals: Owner Michael Bidwill made the decision to eat the money and make a clean sweep of both GM Steve Keim and HC Kliff Kingsbury. It was probably the right decision. The team will prioritize hiring a GM first, which could take a couple of weeks. They’re talking to Payton as well, and he also has to sort out the pros and cons of taking the job. He’s the type of candidate they’d prioritize over a GM, otherwise it sounds like they’ll take their time. 
    • Colts: Things have been low-key here. The biggest takeaway is there’s a sense interim HC Jeff Saturday has a real chance at keeping the job despite his 1-7 record. There’s been speculation but no actual connections to Harbaugh yet, as well. 
    • Panthers: 10 coaches have been set up for interviews so far and seven have a background on offense. It’s a pretty clear indication where Carolina is leaning. The list does not include Harbaugh, despite his big-name cache. 
    • Texans: Where to begin? For the second year, Houston fired a head coach they hired under questionable circumstances, axing Lovie Smith after one year just like David Culley the year before. It’s an awful look for GM Nick Caserio, and it doesn’t seem like he’s escaping scrutiny anymore. It’s perhaps notable that owner Cal McNair has said he plans to have a bigger hand in the search this year and the candidates list already looks quite different, though the frontrunner remains Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon like it was last year until Smith mysteriously pulled ahead. 
    • Titans: Tennessee is conducting a GM search and looking at most of the same candidates the Cardinals are. Both teams also have strong internal candidates to take over who are also drawing interest from each other. 
  • A possibility for a sixth coaching vacancy remains. Rams HC Sean McVay seems to be seriously weighing stepping away after a taxing 5-12 season that seemed to drain his love of coaching. Some news is expected on that soon, including the details of how long if McVay does indeed step away. The idea of a break isn’t new as McVay was courted hard by the TV networks last offseason. It’d obviously have huge implications for the Rams and the NFL if he followed through this year, though. 
  • The first Monday after the regular season ends isn’t called Black Monday just because of the head coaches who lose their jobs. Teams make changes to their coordinator spots as well. The Browns fired DC Joe Woods after three seasons finishing 21st, 13th and 20th in yards allowed; 73-year-old Falcons DC Dean Pees retired for the third and probably final time; the Titans fired OC Todd Downing; and, after some drama, the Jets “mutually parted ways” with OC Mike LaFleur. None of these were entirely unexpected but in the case of LaFleur, it seems like he has a better argument than others that he’s being unfairly scapegoated. 
  • There is plenty more evaluation work to be done for teams ahead of the offseason and most of the big roster decisions will be made in February. Some moves become obvious, though. Browns DE Jadeveon Clowney aired some frustrations and doubts about being back in Cleveland, and the team basically confirmed it by deactivating him for the final week. There’s also action brewing in the veteran receiver market. A future issue of NFLTR Review will go into things more in depth, but a wide receiver market that looked picked clean after last year’s spending bonanza will get an influx of talent. The Saints restructured Michael Thomas‘ deal as a precursor to cutting him, Brandin Cooks revealed he and the Texans basically have an understanding they will try to trade him, and one of the first orders of business for a new Cardinals GM apparently will be trading DeAndre Hopkins. In the meantime, you can check out some potential landing spots for Hopkins that make the most sense. 
  • One of the things the Panthers had to sell to incoming coaching candidates was an offensive line that improved dramatically in 2022. It took a hit however when G Austin Corbett tore his ACL in the Week 18 finale. He had been a hit as a free agent signing coming over from the Rams, and now will be hard-pressed to make it back in time for the start of next season. Having depth at guard will be extra important for the Panthers this offseason. 
  • There was good news and bad news for the Ravens this week. The bad news is that QB Lamar Jackson‘s sprained PCL has still kept him sidelined, meaning he’ll miss the wildcard game against the Bengals. Barring a shocking upset, this will be the second season in a row tanked by a late-season injury to Jackson. The good news is that the Ravens locked up LB Roquan Smith to a five-year, $100 million extension. He’s been terrific for Baltimore since arriving on a deadline deal and has made the rest of the defense around him better. The deal makes him the highest-paid linebacker in football, and there are some questions about if Smith is worth it from a positional value standpoint. But it gives Baltimore a cornerstone to build around on defense and keeps the franchise tag free for Jackson this offseason. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

Just out of curiosity, I looked at what Nick Caserio said when he fired Lovie Smith this year…

And what he was saying a year ago: “Earlier today, I met with David Culley and Tim Kelly to inform them we will be moving in a different direction at the head coach and offensive coordinator positions. I came to this difficult but necessary decision after reviewing our football operation. While a change after one season is unusual, we had philosophical differences over the long-term direction and vision for our program moving forward. We appreciate Coach Culley for helping us navigate through a difficult season, but it is my responsibility to make decisions that I feel are best for our organization. The search for the next coach of the Houston Texans will begin immediately.”

There’s a reason they both sound alike, and it’s not just jargony front office speak. Maybe one day Caserio will be caught in an honest moment and explain why he just ran the clock out on two years and two coaching hires…

See if you can spot where the Colts fired Reich and hired Saturday… (source)

Indianapolis was 3-3-1 when owner Jim Irsay forced Reich to bench Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger. One of those wins was against the Chiefs. Two losses with Ehlinger at the helm got Reich fired for Saturday, who reinserted Ryan into the lineup and won his first game…

It would have been tough for Reich to do enough to get the Colts into the playoffs, and he probably needed that to save his job. But you can blame Irsay for how ugly it got in Indianapolis down the stretch…

If we judged former Jets OC Mike LaFleur solely off the 12 games over the past two seasons without Zach Wilson — instead turning to notable names like Joe Flacco, Mike White and Josh Johnson — his offense would have averaged 381 yards per game, 292 passing and 89 rushing. Those would rank fourth, second and 29th in the league this season…

Some team is going to get themselves a steal here…

Laugh all you want, but not everyone can put out takes as, let’s say, serendipitous as this…

So much has happened this week that it’s flown under the radar that despite a 2-6 start, Steelers HC Mike Tomlin has still never finished a season with a losing record. Pittsburgh beat the Browns to finish 9-8 in a rebuilding year. Amazing…

Quite the range of outcomes for Purdy there…

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1612148869667913729

Just incredible…

It is ludicrous how popular the NFL is…

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