NFLTR Review: What’s Next For The Ravens & Lamar Jackson

By
Logan Ulrich
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Is there an end in sight to the drama between the Ravens & Lamar Jackson? In this issue:

  • Key dates to know
  • Potential areas for compromise
  • The nuclear option for Jackson & if he’ll need to use it

The Big Picture: Where Do Things Go From Here With Lamar?

The short answer to the questions posed so far is that no one really knows. One way or another, the Lamar Jackson saga has puzzled just about everyone in the NFL over the past couple of years. But “Who knows?” would make for a short column, so we’re going to try and piece together the next twists and turns this long, drawn-out saga could take. 

To recap quickly where things stand, the Ravens placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson earlier this offseason after failing to come to terms on a long-term deal following two years of negotiations. Both sides have been fairly buttoned up about the particulars, but reports indicate the gap is Jackson’s pursuit of either a fully guaranteed deal or more guaranteed money than the five-year, $230 million fully-guaranteed contract the Browns gave QB Deshaun Watson. The Ravens have been willing to pay Jackson a lot, but the guaranteed money is a dealbreaker, as it’s a precedent the team doesn’t want to set. 

Neither does anyone else, apparently. Under the non-exclusive tag, Jackson has been free to negotiate a contract with any team. If the Ravens declined to match, they’d get two first-round picks. That’s less than other notable quarterbacks have gone for in blockbuster deals over the past few seasons. Despite being a former MVP quarterback in the prime of his career, Jackson’s market has been crickets. 

There are several reasons that have been given for that. All of them are probably true to some extent. 

  • Teams want Watson’s contract to be an outlier and to prevent fully-guaranteed contracts from becoming the norm. 
  • The rest of the NFL isn’t as high on Jackson as fans and the media are. 
  • There are concerns about Jackson’s injury history and the longevity of his playing style. 
  • The picks and contract are too expensive for some teams who need more than just a quarterback. 
  • The Ravens would just match any offer sheet anyway. 

Whatever it is, the end result is Jackson and the Ravens remain locked in a stalemate without a clear path to a resolution. So what happens next? There are a few key dates coming up that could provide some impetus for either side. 

2023 NFL Draft, April 27-29

Even if five quarterbacks end up going in the first round, it won’t completely satisfy the demand around the league right now. Some teams will still leave the draft with questions at quarterback. At that point, the two first-round picks an acquiring team would have to surrender to sign Jackson to an offer sheet would be in 2024 and 2025, which could be a lot more attractive since teams tend to devalue future picks. 

The issue is that the teams who are most likely to still need a quarterback after the draft are already the teams that have ruled out pursuing Jackson and signalled they’re happy with their options. The Falcons and Commanders make tons of sense as teams that could be dangerous with a quarterback like Jackson. Yet they’ve consistently thrown their support behind Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell/Jacoby Brissett. 

Teams like the Lions, Saints, Seahawks, Titans, Vikings and Raiders have veterans they seem to be content with for 2023, even if there are long-term questions. And even if they did want to upgrade, going after Jackson and missing could put a team in a pickle with its current starter who feels jilted, like the Falcons and Matt Ryan after Atlanta failed to land Watson. 

Perhaps if the Colts for some reason don’t come away from this draft with a quarterback despite having the No. 4 pick, they could work on an offer sheet. Owner Jim Irsay has already publicly balked at the cost to acquire Jackson, both with the contract he wants and the picks he’d have to surrender. But maybe the prospect of another season in quarterback purgatory changes his mind. 

The other wildcard to consider is whether the ownership change in Washington alters its stance on Jackson. The team is expected to be sold to 76ers owner Josh Harris and a new owner always wants to put their fingerprints on the team. But would Harris overrule HC Ron Rivera and the front office, who have been moving ahead with their plan and vision for the football side of the organization, with such a huge, franchise-altering move essentially just a couple of weeks after taking over? It seems more likely Harris will take the rest of the year to survey things and allow everyone in the building to make their case to stay before he decides what changes need to happen in 2024. 

On the other side of things, there’s a chance the Ravens draft a quarterback. They haven’t ruled out the idea and they did bring in Florida QB Anthony Richardson for a top 30 visit. Jackson’s a special player but from a physical talent standpoint, Richardson brings a lot of similar elements to the table. Ultimately, though, I think the chances the Ravens take a quarterback in the first round are incredibly low. Five percent might be too generous. 

Spring OTAs & Minicamp, May-beginning of June. 

After the draft, teams will have voluntary OTAs in May and mandatory minicamp in June. Jackson doesn’t have to be at OTAs and there’s a good chance he skips minicamp as well, as while his tag remains unsigned he’s technically not under contract and can’t be fined. It wouldn’t be ideal for the Ravens to be without their starting quarterback as they install new OC Todd Monken’s playbook but it’s not insurmountable. 

Franchise tag extension deadline, July 17

If the Ravens and Jackson don’t have an agreement on an extension by this date, he has to play out the 2023 season on the tag. A contract would likely mean one or either side compromising on the key issue that has held things up — guaranteed money. That hasn’t happened in more than two years, so it’s fair to be pessimistic that it will happen by July. 

At this point, it’s possible there could be other quarterback deals that have moved the market as well. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts just signed a five-year, $255 million deal that makes him the NFL’s new highest-paid quarterback at $51 million a year. It had more of a traditional guarantee structure, so from Jackson’s point of view it probably doesn’t change much. In fact, it’s actually not that much different of a deal from the one Jackson reportedly turned down last August. Hurts’ deal is a little bigger but Jackson’s had a significantly better guarantee structure and cash flow. 

Chargers QB Justin Herbert and Bengals QB Joe Burrow are expected to sign extensions later this summer. The top of the quarterback market could move to $55 million or more, which won’t make it any easier for the Ravens to ink Jackson to a long-term deal. But again it’s important to note the size of the deal doesn’t really seem to be the holdup. The Ravens were willing to pay Jackson $50 million a year, per the reports from PFT and ESPN, with a sizable percentage of that sum guaranteed. Jackson turned it down because the full guarantee at signing of $133 million wasn’t enough. Watson’s full guarantee was $230 million. Jackson hasn’t said if that’s his number or if it’s something like $200 million. It’s not even clear if a three-year, $150 million deal that’s fully guaranteed would be an acceptable compromise for both sides. 

Deadlines do tend to drive action, as we saw with the Giants and QB Daniel Jones this year. Perhaps the prospect of playing out the 2023 season on the tag, which isn’t ideal for either Jackson or the Ravens, pushes the two sides to compromise more than they’ve been willing to so far. If it doesn’t, things could get stickier. 

Start of training camp, end of July-beginning of August

If the tag deadline passes without a deal, Jackson’s camp will be looking at the prospect of repeating this whole cycle again in 2024. A second tag would be 120 percent of Jackson’s 2023 salary of $32.4 million, which is $38.9 million. That’s assuming they use the non-exclusive tender again. They did it once, so it’s entirely possible they could do it again, but it might depend on what happens during the 2023 season, both in Baltimore and elsewhere. The exclusive tag in 2024 would probably be somewhere north of $50 million. 

A third tag in 2025 would be 144 percent of whatever Jackson’s 2024 number is. If it’s the non-exclusive tag, that’s $56 million. If it’s the exclusive, it’d be in the neighborhood of $70 million. It’s hard to imagine things reaching that point, as that would be two more years of stress and intrigue. It wouldn’t be good for either Jackson or the Ravens. Financially speaking, however, if the cap goes up as much as some people expect, it’s a possibility.  

If Jackson can’t get a long-term deal to his liking from the Ravens, getting to unrestricted free agency as quickly as he can should be his top priority. His market should be better without the possibility of the Ravens matching an offer sheet or a team needing to give up draft picks. With that in mind, Jackson could push for the Ravens to give him a no-tag clause in exchange for not holding out, either into training camp or even the regular season. 

There’s some precedent here. In 2019, the Texans used the franchise tag on Jadeveon Clowney, then decided to trade him after the deadline to reach a long-term deal had passed. The issue was that gave Clowney a tremendous amount of leverage, as he had to sign his tag to process any trade which effectively gave him a no-trade clause. He used it to veto one deal to the Dolphins. As a condition of accepting a trade to the Seahawks, Clowney received a no-tag clause from Seattle and tested unrestricted free agency the following offseason. 

The case of Albert Haynesworth and the Titans might be more applicable, although it was further back in 2008. Haynesworth’s agent got the Titans to agree to include four potential triggers for a no-trade clause when they tagged Haynesworth in exchange for him not holding out of camp. One of those was making the Pro Bowl, which Haynesworth achieved. He signed a mammoth deal with Washington the following offseason. 

The obvious challenge is Baltimore doesn’t want to let Jackson leave with no compensation coming back except a potential third-round compensatory pick. If they can’t extend Jackson, trading him is the next best thing, and they’d lose their ability to do that if they gave him a no-tag clause.

On the other hand, not having Jackson for camp would be disastrous for a team trying to install a new offense. The Ravens already showed they were willing to take on some risk of losing Jackson in the interest of sparking a resolution by using the non-exclusive tag this offseason. Allowing him access to unrestricted free agency would be making the same gamble that they have a higher value on Jackson than the rest of the league. 

The stakes would just be more extreme. 

The Ravens could also call Jackson’s bluff. 2023 is an important year for him, too, not just in his pursuit of a new contract but in his professional life. Jackson legitimately cares about winning, his teammates in the locker room and his legacy on the field. Holding out would damage all of that. It wouldn’t help his market next offseason, as it would be the type of thing that would be easily held against him by other teams. It also wouldn’t set him up to have success on the field and shut up some of the critics. 

The flip side of that is Jackson is taking on risk every snap he plays without a market-level deal. And at this point, his best leverage is his ability to withhold the top-shelf ability he has to play the most important position on the field. This makes the start of training camp an important date to watch. A holdout of any kind would be a major escalation. 

Week 1, September 10

Holding out in training camp is one thing. Holding out into the regular season is a much different beast. At this point, Jackson would start to lose money. He can’t be fined for missing mandatory meetings and practice as long as he doesn’t sign the tag but once he starts missing games, he starts missing game checks. That’s money he can’t make back. 

So add it all up, and my best guess — heavy emphasis on guess — is that come Week 1, Jackson will be behind center for the Ravens. The signing of WR Odell Beckham Jr. isn’t definitive but the veteran didn’t come to Baltimore to catch passes from someone other than Jackson. The former MVP has never lacked doubters or motivation. But he’s got as much to prove on the field in 2023 as ever. Another elite season could do a lot to swing the leverage back in his favor. 

There are still major questions about what the future holds for Jackson and the Ravens long-term. The decision to use the non-exclusive tag has changed the math some but because of the potential difficulties of doing a third franchise tag, the 2024 offseason represents a more serious potential breaking point for the two sides if an extension continues to be elusive. It could be the final chance for the Ravens to maximize the value they’d get from Jackson if his exit his assured. 

It’s also fair to ask if the relationship between the two sides can survive this much strain. Things got tense at the end of last season when Jackson was hurt and both sides were frustrated with each other. Jackson did request a trade from the team in early March, then went public with it just as Ravens HC John Harbaugh was sitting down to meet with reporters at the owners meeting, which almost certainly was not a coincidence. That was arguably the first time Jackson publicly made a move to put stress on the Ravens. 

Yet other reports since then have made it seem like dialogue on an extension has continued between the two sides. The trade request can’t be ignored but it also doesn’t seem like Jackson is completely closed off to staying in Baltimore like Watson was with the Texans. And while it’s drawn eye rolls from some fans and analysts, in all their public comments the Ravens have been relentlessly positive about signing Jackson to a long-term deal and staunchly affirmative about their faith in him as a franchise quarterback. 

Strange as it may seem, I think the past few months have made it clear the best fit for Jackson long-term is in Baltimore. For all intents and purposes, he’s been available for weeks. And the best offer he has gotten has been from the Ravens. Going back to when he was drafted, it’s been the Ravens who seem to have the highest opinion of his ability as an NFL quarterback. Take away all the baggage with the tag and the offer sheet, and it feels like there’s a good chance the Ravens would still be the team with the highest offer on the table for Jackson at the end of the day. 

Maybe it’s naive, maybe it’s crazy. And I have no real idea what it will look like or how they will get there. But despite how bleak it looks right now, I have a sneaking suspicion in the end, the Ravens and Jackson will make it work. 

This Week In Football

  • The biggest news of the week was the Eagles moving the quarterback market forward with the first of a handful of mega-deals that are expected this offseason. Philadelphia signed QB Jalen Hurts, fresh off of going toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes for an MVP and Super Bowl title, to a five-year, $255 million extension. At $51 million a year, Hurts is now the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback, although that distinction is probably going to be short-lived. Now the question is whether this will turn out better than the last big quarterback deal the Eagles handed out. I think there are two differentiators between Hurts and Carson Wentz that should give Eagles fans reasons for optimism. Hurts has been able to stay healthier than Wentz so far and is a more dynamic athlete than Wentz even before the injuries. And in terms of all the ideal intangibles teams want from their quarterback — things like leadership, poise, work ethic, maturity — Hurts is pretty much the standard. He’s steadily improved his entire career. It’s not outlandish to think that could continue. 
  • There was also more action on the trade block, with one trade and a number of other high-profile names floating around, including one we discussed last week: 49ers QB Trey Lance. San Francisco has apparently been getting trade calls about Lance, which makes complete sense with everything we outlined last week about how his long-term status is in question. What’s interesting is the timing of everyone knowing about it, as it feels like a strategic leak by the 49ers to see if they can flush out a bigger offer ahead of the draft. Consider the Vikings were linked as one of the teams that inquired about Lance, but back during the Combine. That stayed quite for over a month. Ultimately, it still comes down to the 49ers getting an offer they feel is strong enough to move Lance, as they don’t have to be in a rush to trade him by any means. 
  • Cardinals fans, let me know if this is off base or not. But it feels like nothing truly good for this organization has happened since they went into a Thursday night game against the Packers in 2021 playing for the top seed in the NFC and lost at the buzzer. It’s been bad headline after bad headline since then. The latest is one of their best remaining players, S Budda Baker, requesting a trade. Baker has a few issues with the team. He has two years remaining on his contract and is out of guaranteed money, so that appears to be part of it. The other is that Arizona seems to be gearing up for a multi-year rebuild and Baker isn’t sure if he wants to gut it out. The Cardinals don’t feel like they’re itching to trade Baker but if another team wants to give them a high draft pick, it’s not inconceivable something could get done. With two years left, Baker doesn’t have a ton of leverage. 
  • Vikings RB Dalvin Cook came up in trade talks earlier this offseason but those fizzled out rather quickly. Cook’s $10.4 million base salary and Minnesota’s asking price were obstacles teams couldn’t overcome, including the Dolphins. But Miami has kept one eye on the situation, as the Vikings still have some cap-saving moves to do. Cook could be asked to take a pay cut and if he refuses, the Vikings will probably cut him. Cook has to weigh what the Vikings have on the table vs what he could get elsewhere. Miami wouldn’t give him much more money probably, as they’re also tight to the cap. But they have a strong team and could offer Cook a chance to return to his South Florida roots. Something to keep an eye on. 
  • The actual trade that went down this week was the Steelers trading for Rams WR Allen Robinson, who has been openly on the block for weeks as Los Angeles hits the reset button on the roster. Personally I was skeptical the Rams would find a taker for Robinson, who was owed $15.25 million guaranteed and was coming off a career-worst season. And the deal they ultimately got from Pittsburgh is the lowest trade compensation I can recall for a player. The Rams ate more than $10 million of Robinson’s salary, with the Steelers taking the remaining $5 million. The two sides swapped picks in the seventh round this year, with the Rams moving up 17 spots. For the Steelers, this is a low-cost dice roll to augment the depth in their receiving corps. Robinson is still only 29 and could rebound in a better scheme fit. For the Rams, they clear $5 million in cash commitments, clear a roster spot and move up a bit in the draft. It’s a pretty disastrous end to what was a massively hyped free agent signing. 
  • We are inside of a week out from the draft and it’s pretty clear that the Panthers are going to take Alabama QB Bryce Young No. 1 overall. But the closer we’ve gotten to the draft, the less clarity there’s been about what the Texans plan to do at No. 2 overall. For most of draft season, Houston was expected to take whichever quarterback the Panthers didn’t. Now there’s a ton of smoke about the Texans not being in love with Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud for whatever reason, and the team either taking a pass rusher, a different quarterback or even trading out. Texans GM Nick Caserio has proven himself to be a bit of a wildcard, so nothing can be dismissed when it comes to Houston. 
  • Most of the league started their offseason workout programs this week, which means there were notable absences. Some of them were expected, like the various franchise-tagged players who are still working on long-term deals. There’s Jets DT Quinnen Williams who vowed to stay away until he got a long-term deal and is following through on that. Right now the price tag for that deal is looking like it’ll be around $25 million a year. What was a little more of a surprise, or at least was flying more under the radar until this week, was the contract dispute between the Vikings and DE Danielle Hunter. He’s not at voluntary workouts and is angling for a new deal. Last year, the team moved up some of his money from 2023 and he’s due to make just $5.5 million in total compensation. After a slow start to the season, Hunter finished with double-digit sacks, so he’s certainly worth far more than the Vikings are currently paying. That could be part of why they haven’t reached a resolution with OLB Za’Darius Smith yet even after spending big on Marcus Davenport in free agency. It’ll be interesting to see how it all shakes out. 
  • There’s not a lot of major free-agent movement going on right now but the Falcons did land an interesting player, signing veteran DE Bud Dupree to bolster their front seven. The sturdy Dupree is big enough to play in their four-man front and lessens their need for an edge rusher in the draft. They still don’t have a lot their long-term but this better frees up Atlanta to go best player available at No. 8 overall, just like last week’s trade for CB Jeff Okudah did. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

Here’s a quantifiable measure of what I mean when I say the rest of the NFL isn’t as high on Jackson as fans and the media…

This perception stuff matters. We’ll get a data point on Hurts soon but it’s notable to see how far Jackson is behind Herbert and Burrow . Those negotiations might not impact things much…

I think it flies under the radar a bit how much of an advantage it is for the Chiefs that Mahomes can basically run his own OTAs with the offense. Most teams have started their offseason program at their facility this week but they can’t do any actual football work for a while. It’s just time for classroom installs and strength and conditioning. But the Chiefs are doing Phase I virtually, which allows the skill players to get out on the grass and start to build chemistry with Mahomes. As far as I know, no other team is doing this. Just another way Mahomes is special and unique…

The NFL competition committee didn’t nuke this play, which means it will be an even bigger part of the playbook for teams in 2023. Defenses have to have a better plan to stop it, offenses have to be ready to build more counters in, and overall going for it on fourth and short will become even more of the norm…

Speaking of wild innovations, how fun would it be to see this trickle its way up? 

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