Previewing The 2024 QB Carousel Part II: Who’s Available & Where Could They End Up?

Here’s part two of our series looking ahead at the 2024 quarterback carousel. In part one, we went team by team to classify each quarterback situation and figure out which organizations could be in the market for a new signal-caller. 

The second part of the puzzle is what the available options are, and in some ways this is more important. The demand always outstrips the supply when it comes to quarterback play. Plenty of teams would like to get better but there are limited upgrades available, and the cost is rarely cheap. 

There are three avenues for teams to improve at quarterback; free agency, the draft and the trade market. Teams can look for bargains in all three areas but you usually get what you pay for. 

Free Agency

Here’s a list of notable quarterbacks on expiring contracts:

• Vikings QB Kirk Cousins
• Titans QB Ryan Tannehill
• Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield
• Vikings QB Joshua Dobbs
• Commanders QB Jacoby Brissett
• Colts QB Gardner Minshew
• Giants QB Tyrod Taylor
• Saints QB Jameis Winston
• 49ers QB Sam Darnold
• Seahawks QB Drew Lock
• Eagles QB Marcus Mariota
• Lions QB Teddy Bridgewater
• Ravens QB Tyler Huntley
• Rams QB Carson Wentz

There’s one gem on this list — Cousins — and then a bunch of players who teams would likely prefer to have as backups at best. Still, a few of them will likely be pressed into starting jobs due to demand or injury. 

The big domino to fall will be Cousins, and the way things have played out this year has injected quite a bit of intrigue into things. The Vikings and Cousins had talks on an extension this past offseason but were unable to find common ground. Since leaving Washington as a free agent, Cousins has insisted on fully-guaranteed contracts, even if for only a year. That has stressed the Vikings’ cap management, as once those deals are restructured to provide breathing room in one year, it increases the hit and Cousins’ leverage in future seasons. Minnesota finally reached a point with Cousins getting older where it decided to do a restructure with void years instead of an extension. 

In return, Cousins got a no-tag clause and a clear path to unrestricted free agency if he wanted to test the market. Most figured this was a signal the Vikings were ready to make a break and confront the next phase of their rebuild. But then to start this season, Cousins was playing arguably the best ball of his career before tearing his Achilles. The Vikings started the season 1-4 and lost WR Justin Jefferson, but Cousins responded by piloting three straight wins before his injury. 

Multiple reports since have stated both Cousins and the Vikings would be more than open to another deal to stay together in 2024. Cousins and his family have put down roots in Minnesota, and if you saw any portion of Netflix’s Quarterback documentary that helped boost Cousins’ star profile, you know the veteran is a creature of routine. It’s also clear Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell thinks highly of Cousins and would go to bat to keep him on the team. Just a gut feeling, but if I had to pinpoint a favorite for Cousins in 2024, it would be the Vikings. 

We’ll see if those good vibes remain when the two sides hit the negotiating table and start exchanging numbers. That’s why other quarterback-needy teams will continue to keep an eye on Cousins as there remains a chance he’s available in free agency. If so, he represents the type of upgrade a potential contending team that thinks it’s just a quarterback away from having a lot of success will pay a lot of money for. 

Out of the rest of this batch of free agent quarterbacks, I think there are a few names worth spotlighting as most likely to be signed for starting roles come next March. Tannehill and Garoppolo have the most experience and the longest track record and Mayfield is probably playing the best of anyone on the list, but I think the player replacing Cousins in Minnesota right now could be intriguing for teams. 

Four interceptions in a Monday night loss to the Bears poured a bucket of cold water on the growing legend of Josh Dobbs. The turnovers are a real problem at this point — he has 10 interceptions and has fumbled 14 times in 12 games — but his performance for two different teams with zero prep or practice time is still notable. 

Dobbs has shown a proclivity for making plays with both his arm and his legs in less-than-ideal circumstances. He’s obviously smart given how quickly he can absorb a new playbook and the fact he has a degree in literal rocket science. He’ll be just 29 next year too. I think he’s shown enough potential that it’s not out of the question a team is intrigued enough with the idea of what he could do with a full offseason and training camp in the same system to sign him as a bridge starter. Whether it’s in that role or as a high-end backup, Dobbs should do well for himself in free agency. 

Despite being more proven players, I think Tannehill and Garoppolo face more uncertain job prospects next year. Their experience is valuable but it also means teams know what they are getting at this point in their careers. Neither are viewed as long-term starters or difference-makers, and both have concerning injury histories. The coaching cycle will likely dictate their options, as if a coach who has familiarity with either Tannehill or Garoppolo needs a bridge starter, they have good resumes for that. 

Mayfield’s career seemed to be on the brink last year but he’s done a lot to re-establish himself this year. The Buccaneers aren’t a good team but they’re nowhere near as miserable as a lot of people expected, and Mayfield coming in as a stabilizing force on offense has had a lot to do with that. He hasn’t been perfect but he’s largely avoided the streaks of back-breaking turnovers and has shown a knack for getting away from pressure. His grit and leadership have impressed a lot of people in the building, too. 

I could see both the Bucs and Mayfield being open to another short contract, particularly if Tampa Bay doesn’t love its options outside the top two in this rookie class and especially if Mayfield can help lead a turnaround down the stretch to steal a playoff berth. The team is still just one game back in the NFC South. On the flip side, the Buccaneers could either shake things up with the coaching staff or decide they need to chase a higher-profile option. 

NFL Draft

Nearly all of the college football season is in the books and we have a pretty solid idea of which quarterbacks we’ll be discussing until April. But the individual draft stock for a lot of players is still volatile. Some of the most important games for prospects are still to come — just roll the clock back to C.J. Stroud against Georgia last year — and outside of scouting teams won’t completely dig into draft prep until 2024. Some prospects will declare and some will go back to school, some prospects we don’t expect will rise and others will fall. 

So take the following with a grain of salt, because this picture will change. But as we sit here today, this looks like a strong and deep quarterback class, with high-level options at the top and what looks like depth throughout. Here’s a brief look at the different tiers: 

Cream of the Crop

You probably already know the two names I’m going to talk about here because both were talked about as potential No. 1 picks even before last year’s draft. Nothing that’s happened this fall has dropped either USC QB Caleb Williams or North Carolina QB Drake Maye from the top of this class — though it’s fair to say Williams isn’t necessarily the lock to go ahead of Maye that people thought he was back in the spring. 

The preference of the team picking No. 1 will ultimately play a significant factor in which player goes first. Williams is a creative playmaker who’s drawn some comparisons to Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Those probably need to be dialed back but it gets the message across in terms of playing style. Teams with offenses highly predicated on structure might find Maye more appealing. He’s just as physically talented as Williams, though in a different way. Maye is big, athletic and has a powerful arm, but he colors in the lines most of the time, like Chargers QB Justin Herbert. 

The question with Maye will be if he can limit turnovers at the NFL level, as he had too many of those in his final college season. If he’s not the first pick, though, he’ll be the second, and that’s likely the case for Williams as well. He’s too good of a playmaker to fall. 

What will be interesting to watch is whether the soft skill aspect of Williams’ profile gets picked apart in the coming months. Things like declining to talk to the press after losses (empowered by USC HC Lincoln Riley) or the video of him crying with his parents after a loss have been talk show fodder already. Even his pregame ritual of painting his nails has been scrutinized. Most of that seems like noise that Williams’ talent should drown out. But it’s worth mentioning at least.

Race For QB3

There will be a fascinating battle for the third quarterback off the board, with a cadre of talented seniors battling a few interesting juniors who could declare. Those underclassmen include: 

• Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
• Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
• Texas QB Quinn Ewers

At this point, I wouldn’t quite say any of these three are locks for the first round. But all three are prospects who have intrigued the NFL and each has a chance to boost their stock into a high selection if they enter the draft. 

Sanders has raised his profile more than any other player in the nation with the rise of Colorado into the national sports conversation under his father, HC Deion Sanders. His playmaking ability turned heads in NFL scouting circles during the Buffaloes’ hot start to the season and his leadership and maturity continued to impress as Colorado’s season lost momentum. Based on the buzz, he would have a great chance to be a first-round pick if he declared for the 2024 draft. 

If you believe his father, though, there’s no chance of that happening. The elder Sanders is looking to take Colorado to much greater heights in 2024 with a year to recruit and retool the roster further through the transfer portal, and his son is a key part of what he’s building. He’s said multiple times both of them will be back in 2024. Shedeur Sanders has had to deal with a limited supporting cast on offense, but if he comes back he should be one of the leading preseason contenders for the Heisman trophy and could be the first quarterback off the board instead of the third. 

Most prospects in his shoes would jump to the NFL with this kind of hype. But Sanders is not most prospects. So for now, I’m not anticipating Sanders being a part of the 2024 class. 

McCarthy is finishing his second year as the starter at Michigan, both of which will have ended with appearances in the College Football Playoff. If he declares, the pros on his scouting report will include his experience at a major program in a relatively pro-style offense, his efficient (although not prolific) production and the flashes of arm talent and speed on tape. 

The question marks will be accuracy — which can come and go — and whether the quality of McCarthy’s supporting cast at Michigan hid other deficiencies. The Wolverines don’t ask McCarthy to do much to run their offense and have demolished 90 percent of the teams they’ve played. McCarthy averages under 22 attempts per game this season. Against Penn State and Ohio State, Michigan’s two best opponents so far this season, McCarthy threw 29 passes in total. It’s fair to wonder how he’ll respond when the degree of difficulty amps up in the NFL. 

Ewers is a former top recruit who has started the past two seasons at Texas but won’t turn 21 until this coming March. He’s got the physical ability you’d expect from a five-star player, with an arm to get the ball down the field with just a flick and some mobility to buy time and extend plays. But his tape is maddeningly inconsistent, and he’s been banged up with injuries each of the past two seasons. 

Ten or fifteen years ago, staying in school and getting another year of seasoning before making the jump to the pros would have been the obvious choice. Things aren’t quite as simple now. There’s a lot of pressure behind Ewers at Texas with true freshman QB Archie Manning. If Ewers returned to Texas, it’s far from guaranteed he’d be starting. He could transfer to another school, but there’s a lot of uncertainty at that point with a new coaching staff, new system and new teammates. At that point, there’s an argument to be made Ewers is better off making the leap to the NFL. 

Super Seniors

Underclassmen usually dominate the discussion at the top of the draft, but this year a better bet for the third quarterback off the board might be one of the three super seniors who are playing the best ball of their career: 

• LSU QB Jayden Daniels
• Oregon QB Bo Nix
• Washington QB Michael Penix

Daniels and Nix are in their fifth year of college football, Penix is in his sixth. All three have blossomed since transferring from their original schools and are putting up huge numbers. One of these three will likely win the Heisman trophy. And all three should be at minimum Day 2 picks, with a strong chance to raise their stock to the first-round level with a good pre-draft process. 

Daniels was a four-star recruit who won the starting job as a true freshman in 2019 at Arizona State under former HC Herm Edwards. After three seasons as the starter, he transferred to LSU once Edwards’ program started to fall apart. Overall, Daniels looked more like a solid college quarterback than a future NFL starter during his first four years. He took care of the football and made plays with his legs, but wasn’t the most consistent or productive passer. 

In 2023, he flipped a switch. Daniels’ previous high for passing touchdowns in a season was 17, which he accomplished twice. He has 40 in 2023 against just four interceptions, plus 3,812 yards passing, 1,134 yards rushing and another 11 scores on the ground. It’s the most prolific season for an LSU quarterback since Joe Burrow. Had LSU not dropped a couple of games this season, Daniels would be a lock for the Heisman and he still might win it depending on what happens during the conference title games. 

There’s no question some teams will have to revise their opinion of Daniels. He’s built slim, which combined with his playing style will raise durability questions, but Daniels has never missed a start in college and has a fairly clean medical track record. With 55 college starts, he’s among the most experienced draft-eligible quarterbacks. This year he showed a much higher ceiling as a passer, which will raise his ceiling from a Tyler Huntley-type player to someone who could be a legitimate starter. 

Daniels could rocket up boards once teams get to sit down with him this spring and the process may have already begun. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had him as a top-ten pick in his latest mock. Brugler doesn’t just throw things at a wall until they stick, he puts an ungodly amount of work into tape study and has real connections to NFL teams. If Brugler is high on a prospect, odds are the NFL is too. 

Nix arrived at Auburn in 2019 as one of the top high school quarterbacks in the nation who was supposed to help propel the Tigers back to the top of the college football mountain top. His first season looked promising, as he got the nod as the starter as a true freshman and helped the team to a 9-4 record. Then Nix and the Tigers plateaued, and amidst program turmoil he transferred to Oregon. 

Since moving out west, Nix seems to have found himself. A much better supporting cast and system have made his life easier, but Nix looks revitalized and has made an enormous statistical jump. In three years at Auburn, Nix averaged a 59.4 completion percentage, 6.8 yards per pass attempt and 13 passing touchdowns per season. In 2022 at Oregon, Nix completed 71.9 percent of his passes at 8.8 yards per clip for 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions — plus 14 more rushing scores. 

This year, Nix is even better despite Oregon changing coordinators, completing 77.2 percent of his passes for just under 10 yards per attempt and 40 passing touchdowns to just three picks. Nix is also playing much more controlled now after some of his bad games at Auburn looked like the worst we’ve seen from Josh Allen. This newfound maturity along with his gaudy stats could result not only in a Heisman trophy and a College Football Playoff run, but it could get Nix selected in the second or first round after he looked undraftable at points in his career. 

Penix’s journey has been longer and more winding than the other two due to his extensive injury history. In four years at Indiana, Penix tore his ACL twice and hurt both shoulder joints. When he was on the field, he looked like possibly the best quarterback to ever suit up for the Hoosiers. He only played 21 of a possible 45 games, however. 

Since transferring to Washington, Penix has put together two fully healthy seasons and the Huskies have reaped the rewards. He threw for 4,641 yards in 13 games and tossed 31 touchdowns in 2022. This year, he’s averaging fewer yards per game but more per attempt and has 33 touchdown passes. 

The big-armed lefty can fit the ball into just about any window on the field, and while he’s not a dual-threat player anymore he’s still not easy to bring down in the pocket. There are obvious medical concerns but two straight strong seasons have put Penix on the map for scouts. It only takes one team to fall in love to propel him higher up the board than people might think. 

Sleepers

At best, these guys are probably Day 3 selections this year. But as we’ve seen in recent years, relevant quarterbacks can come out of nowhere, so here are a couple of sleepers to keep in mind: 

• Tulane QB Michael Pratt: A true senior who’s played a lot of football at Tulane (45 starts). Pratt is a classic pocket passer, which NFL teams have been trending away from, but Pratt has a chance to turn heads and change minds at the Senior Bowl. 
• Washington State QB Cameron Ward: If he declares, Ward has an interesting skillset with a lot of career pass attempts and some athleticism to make things happen. 
• Florida State QB Jordan Travis: Another quarterback with a lot of experience, Travis probably doesn’t have the size or arm strength for the NFL level, but his college production and athleticism will earn him a look. 
• South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler: Was beaten out at Oklahoma by Caleb Williams, then transferred to South Carolina. Looked at him a couple of years ago and he reminded me of Zach Wilson, good and bad. Earned an invite to the Senior Bowl. 

Trade Market

In recent years, trading for a new starting quarterback has become a viable option for teams looking for help, and once again there are a few interesting options to know about heading into 2024:

• Cardinals QB Kyler Murray
• Bears QB Justin Fields
• Patriots QB Mac Jones

Obviously Arizona, Chicago and New England have to decide they want to trade these players, and that’s not quite a given at this point in time. But for the sake of projection, let’s assume they do — and it’s worth noting the odds are very high two of these three teams will win the Williams/Maye lottery. What are the logistics to sort through with a trade and what does the potential market look like?

Murray is the most established of these three, with two Pro Bowl nods, a playoff appearance and a $46 million-per-year contract, in addition to being a former No. 1 overall pick. The torn ACL, regime change and legit chance at a top-tier quarterback prospect have injected more uncertainty into the situation than there would be for most quarterbacks in Murray’s position. But if Arizona decides to draft a quarterback it’s probably safe to say Murray didn’t play at a Pro Bowl level to close the year. 

Going into 2024, that leaves Murray in an interesting position. He’ll still be only 27 and should be in his prime, so it’s easy to see a team falling in love with the potential ceiling. It doesn’t look like he’s lost much speed coming off his injury, which is his biggest trump card as a player if he can continue to improve his consistency as a passer. However, his contract is a major complicating factor. 

He’ll be owed a base salary of $37 million in 2024, $35.3 million of which is guaranteed, plus $1.85 million in additional bonuses for a total compensation of $38.85 million. For a quarterback of Murray’s caliber, that alone isn’t unreasonable. The kicker is Murray’s deal includes rolling guarantees which make it harder for a team to disentangle itself from the deal if things don’t work out. His 2025 compensation of $29.9 million becomes guaranteed this coming March. In March of 2025, $36.8 million of guarantees in 2026 vest. And in 2026, his $19.8 million 2027 base salary becomes fully guaranteed. 

Essentially, a team that trades for Murray is committing to a minimum of one year as a starter and $67 million in cash. If they elect to keep Murray for a second year, the cash commitment is north of $103 million. That creates some risk that is going to depress Murray’s market more than if just his talent and fit were being evaluated. 

Another thing that will work against Arizona in trade discussions is Murray’s reputation when it comes to the off-field expectations teams have for quarterbacks. His leadership and work ethic have both been questioned, whether it’s quotes from current and former teammates or the infamous study clause in his contract. To Murray’s credit, this year it seems like he’s taken those to heart and tried to make some changes. His teammates say they’ve noticed a difference and Murray looks like he took his ACL rehab seriously. But the damage is done in some ways, especially if Arizona is willing to trade Murray. 

Having said all of that, the demand for talented quarterbacks always outweighs the supply, and no one questions Murray’s talent. I think there are some parallels to draw here with how Wentz exited Philadelphia. The Eagles thought they had a franchise quarterback in Wentz and paid him accordingly. Circumstances changed and a younger, cheaper, possibly better option presented itself. They were able to get a conditional first-round pick from the Colts in exchange for Wentz that would have been a second if Wentz had missed a certain amount of snaps due to injury. 

Wentz’s contract wasn’t as complicated as Murray’s, but Murray is arguably playing better than Wentz was when he was traded. A lot will depend on how the Cardinals and Murray finish out the season but right now if I had to guess, I think the Cardinals could get a second-round pick minimum if they wanted to trade Murray — and potentially more. 

The discussion around Fields’ trade market is a lot simpler in some ways because he’s still on his rookie contract, which vastly simplifies things for an acquiring team. He’s owed just $3.2 million in salary and bonuses for the 2024 season. There is still a decision to make on his fifth-year option, which Over The Cap projects to be $23.25 million for the 2025 season. That is due by May 1 and becomes guaranteed as soon as the team picks it up. 

If the option is declined, 2024 becomes a contract year for the former first-round pick. If it’s exercised, he’s essentially locked onto the roster for two years. Even if Fields stays in Chicago, it feels unlikely the team would pick up the option. For a new team, the question is a little more complicated. We’ve seen two teams tackle this situation over the past few years — the Panthers with Sam Darnold and the Giants with Daniel Jones. They took two different tacks and it ended poorly for both sides. 

After trading for Darnold, Carolina exercised his option because they expected him to play well enough in 2021 to be their clear starter in 2022, at which point his fifth-year option salary of $18.858 million would be a bargain compared to the franchise tag. He flopped and was an expensive backup for most of 2022 because the option was guaranteed. They couldn’t cut him and no team would trade for him at that salary. 

The Giants declined Jones’ option in 2022 because they didn’t expect him to play well enough to be the starter in 2023 and didn’t want to limit their options. The option would have been $22.38 million compared to the franchise tag of $32.4 million. But what made things complicated for the Giants is they had only one tag and RB Saquon Barkley was also a pending free agent. They ended up agreeing to a deal worth $40 million a year for Jones in order to preserve the flexibility to tag Barkley and keep both this season. Now Jones has regressed and gotten hurt and that deal looks like an anchor. 

I should mention the Dolphins picked up QB Tua Tagovailoa’s option this past season and that decision has worked out for them. Tagovailoa had some durability questions after multiple concussions in 2022, but has stayed healthy and played well in 2023. Instead of needing to potentially use the franchise tag this offseason, Miami has Tagovailoa under contract for $23.171 million in 2024, which will help their position in negotiations this offseason.

Essentially it boils down to this: when it comes to fifth-year options for quarterbacks, teams have to roll the dice on whether flexibility or cost control will matter more for them in a year. 

If the Bears do decide to trade Fields and draft a quarterback high, they more than likely will get a second-round pick based on recent precedent. The Jets got a second, fourth and sixth for Darnold from Carolina while the Cardinals got a second and a fifth from Miami for former top-ten QB Josh Rosen. Like Fields, both were former first-round quarterbacks who were traded before the end of their rookie contract. 

Like Murray, however, Fields still has a lot to say about his potential value with his play down the stretch of this season. He could raise or lower his stock and even still play his way into the Bears’ long-term plans.

Jones is another former first-round pick who doesn’t look like he’ll make it to the end of his rookie contract in New England. However, I don’t think his trade value will be quite as high as Fields, even if Jones arguably has the best single season between the two. Fields’ athletic ability gives him both a higher floor and a higher ceiling as a player. Even if he doesn’t develop further as a passer, his ability as a runner gives him more ways to be effective and impact the game. If he becomes a more well-rounded passer, well then phew, watch out.

By comparison, even if Jones is able to recapture the level of competence he showed during a promising rookie season, his limitations are clear. He’s a pocket passer with limited arm strength and mobility who ideally needs a solid offensive line to protect him, a good running game to lean on and a ball-winning receiver to threaten downfield. Even at his best, he looks more like a game manager type than a quarterback who can will a team to wins, and we’ve seen his worst over the past two seasons. Right now, Jones looks like a broken quarterback. 

His 2021 tape and draft capital should earn him another look somewhere if it’s really over in New England but any team trading for Jones right now is trading for damaged goods, and the price will reflect that. I think a fourth-round pick is the best the Patriots will be able to do, and it will take a team who has a head coach or coordinator who has either worked with Jones in the past or is a huge fan based on his college and rookie tape. 

Spinning The Landing Spot Wheel

So far we’ve looked at which teams could potentially be in the market for a new quarterback, and we’ve looked at what the available options this year are. Now it’s time to put it all together. 

Because there are six weeks left in the season, plus playoffs, there are obviously a few assumptions that have to be made. If the current draft order holds, the Patriots would pick second and the Cardinals would pick third. In that scenario, it’s highly likely New England would draft a quarterback and Arizona would keep Murray. 

If those two flip-flop again, it becomes a lot more interesting. Murray becomes a major chip to shake up the QB market, while the Patriots have a far less clear path to a solution at the position. So for the sake of interest, we’ll go with the latter situation. For the other picks, we’ll use the current draft order, along with all of its implications. 

Chicago Bears: Draft North Carolina QB Drake Maye No. 1 overall

Getting a chance at a top prospect yet again is ultimately too much for the Bears to turn down, especially with a decision looming on Fields’ option. As for the pick itself, it’s going to be legitimately close between Maye and Williams, with team preference playing a major role. Chicago’s coaching staff — if they’re still the ones making this pick — have struggled to effectively balance structure with Fields’ off-script ability, so I think they might lean toward a more structured passer in Maye. This is just a pure guess at this point, though. 

Arizona Cardinals: Draft USC QB Caleb Williams No. 2 overall

If the Cardinals finish with the No. 2 pick, I think it will be tough to turn down Williams, unless Murray is just lights out and the team loses in spite of him. With a war chest of picks still and a clean slate with a rookie QB contract, the Cardinals could become frisky in a hurry. That could be true by trading the No. 2 pick for even more picks to offset Murray’s contract, but to be honest it’s a little more interesting to think about the trade possibilities at this point. 

Las Vegas Raiders: Trade 2024 2nd and conditional 2025 3rd to Cardinals for QB Kyler Murray

The Raiders are among the four teams entering this offseason who are most in need of a new quarterback, with the Patriots, Falcons and Buccaneers rounding out the list. These are the teams I’m keeping my eye on to make a big splash move, and the Raiders along with owner Mark Davis feel like the most willing of the bunch to make a splash. If Las Vegas can’t trade into the top two, I think Murray will be their next best alternative. One of the highlights of Murray’s career so far was a 2022 win in Las Vegas where he simply took over toward the end of the game. Davis won’t have forgotten that. 

(If the Raiders keep interim HC Antonio Pierce, it’s worth noting he overlapped at Arizona State with Jayden Daniels. Tuck that away in the back of your mind if Daniels cements his spot as QB3 in this class.) 

Atlanta Falcons: Sign QB Ryan Tannehill, trade 2024 2nd and 2025 4th to Bears for QB Justin Fields

How the rest of the season shakes out for Atlanta will probably dictate how aggressive they are at quarterback, but they have to do something no matter what. They’re in first place in the NFC South at just 6-6 and QB Desmond Ridder has struggled in his extended run as a starter. Good luck guessing what HC Arthur Smith will do, however. Atlanta could trade for Murray, whose athleticism would be a terrific fit in Smith’s run-heavy offense, but what does Smith think about Murray’s off-field qualities? Fields is another quarterback with elite rushing ability but it’s worth noting Atlanta passed on Fields in 2021, so we know at minimum they didn’t think he was worth the No. 3 pick. I feel a little more confident saying Smith will have interest in reuniting with Tannehill as a backup or potential bridge starter. They can cut current No. 2 QB Taylor Heinicke and save $5 million to put toward Tannehill’s contract. The Falcons will likely be Tannehill’s best option this spring. 

Minnesota Vikings: Re-sign QB Kirk Cousins, draft QB Bo Nix in Round 2 (trade up?)

It’s been a wild season for the Vikings, but right now it looks like they’ll be picking in the back half of the first round which limits their options in the draft. They could spend picks and cash to trade for Murray, or they could just spend some money to keep Cousins who might be a better fit anyway. In fact, it looks more and more like the best option for both the Vikings and Cousins might be another season together. Minnesota still needs to keep an eye on the future, however, and this is a good draft to use a second-round pick on a quarterback, even if the Vikings likely need to trade up. 

New Orleans Saints: Draft LSU QB Jayden Daniels No. 9 overall

Surprise! Based on the current standings, the Saints would not only miss the playoffs, they’d pick in the top ten which would be a major disappointment considering how they pushed the chips in on 2023 during the offseason. Although New Orleans as an organization has prioritized stability, at some point the results have to justify it. There’s a chance the Saints could make big changes this offseason, including to the coaching staff, front office and roster.

Even if they don’t, there’s an argument that they need to get a cheaper, more effective quarterback in the pipeline, and everyone in New Orleans has had a front-row seat to Daniels’ rise over the past two seasons. Drafting Daniels also wouldn’t necessarily push Carr out the door right away, as his salary is guaranteed no matter what and he gives the team the luxury of not rushing Daniels into the lineup. 

New England Patriots: Sign QB Josh Dobbs, draft QB J.J. McCarthy in Round 2

So much depends on the direction the Patriots go at head coach and in the front office after this season. Charting a course forward for them could be its own separate article. In this scenario, I’m assuming they miss out on the top two quarterbacks, and that they’re not as interested in trading for another team’s damaged goods at quarterback and would rather start fresh. That means adding a veteran and a rookie. If New England has the No. 3 pick, that might be rich for the third quarterback off the board, but the top of the second round currently looks like a sweet spot in this class, even if it involves a slight trade up. As for the veteran, I think some teams will be intrigued by what Dobbs has shown this year, at least more than other known quantities in the free agent market. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Re-sign QB Baker Mayfield, draft QB Michael Penix in Round 2

The Buccaneers are at a little bit of a crossroads this offseason. The results in two years under HC Todd Bowles so far have been underwhelming, but 2023 was supposed to be more of a reset year to get the cap back in order. The roster still has a lot of veterans who would fit a win-now build but Mayfield probably isn’t the quarterback to get them there, even if he’s played pretty decently this year. If they stick with Bowles, I don’t necessarily see them making a radical move for a passer. If they clean house, all bets are off. I lean toward them keeping Bowles and continuing to tweak, taking a shot on Penix who went to high school in Tampa. 

Denver Broncos: Trade a fourth to Patriots for QB Mac Jones

Despite the five-game win streak to come back from a 1-5 start, there are some real obstacles the Broncos have to navigate this coming offseason with a number of high-priced veterans and a balance sheet that’s currently in the red for 2024. Broncos HC Sean Payton has his work cut out for him to retool this roster. Moving on from QB Russell Wilson might not be practical since he’s played better this year but getting a younger and cheaper alternative to the 25-year-old vet should be on Denver’s radar. They could draft one but they’re missing their second-rounder and have just two picks in the first three rounds. Jones won’t cost more than a Day 3 pick, and it’s worth noting Payton has gone on record as saying the Saints had a high grade on Jones when he was coming out as a rookie in Payton’s final year in New Orleans. 

New York Giants: Draft QB Quinn Ewers in Round 3, re-sign QB Tyrod Taylor

The Giants have played their way out of the top two picks which makes their decision at quarterback a little more complicated, as the remaining options aren’t necessarily clear upgrades over incumbent QB Daniel Jones or the cost to acquire them is impractical. Still, the team has to do something with Jones’ ACL rehab potentially limiting him to start the season. Keeping Taylor since he knows the system makes some sense, and drafting a player to be a long-term backup at minimum and potentially a cheaper alternative to Jones would be a logical step two. 

New York Jets: Sign QB Jacoby Brissett

I think the Jets will keep half an eye on this rookie class but they will want to devote most of their resources to building around QB Aaron Rodgers in one final swing for a ring in 2024, because if the Jets aren’t at least a playoff team, it’s likely curtains for everyone in New York. This year has proven they need a better plan at backup quarterback, however, and Brissett will be one of the top backup options on the market. 

Los Angeles Rams: 

At least one team is going to get frozen out when the music stops and every QB chair is filled. In this scenario, it’s the Rams, who likely will be keeping an eye out for a long-term heir to QB Matthew Stafford this offseason. But if they don’t take one in the first round, they might have to trade up in the second round to get a player they like, and this roster has a lot of needs.