It’s time to get negative, people. After we discussed the best contracts signed in free agency yesterday, it’s time for the other side of the coin. Every year, at least a few deals age poorly, some very quickly. Sometimes the guarantees make it difficult for a team to move on from the player after he underperforms, sometimes the contract proves to be way above market, sometimes the majority ends up being right when a surprising player gets a huge bag.

There are some obvious candidates this year, so let’s break them down:

Raiders C Tyler Linderbaum

I praised the Linderbaum signing when the Raiders made it last week, but it’s still a pretty egregious contract on its own that’s worth breaking down. Let’s get this out of the way first: Las Vegas is a better team with Linderbaum, and he’ll be a huge stabilizing piece in the middle of their offensive line. It also makes sense to bring in a veteran center to help out your young rookie quarterback, and anytime you can sign a top-two player in the league at his position, it makes sense to pounce on the opportunity.

But still, this is a truly ludicrous contract. The Raiders signed Linderbaum to a three-year, $81 million deal with $60 million in total guarantees. At $27 million in average annual value, Linderbaum reset the center market by a whopping 50 percent — $9 million more than the previous top-paid center, Kansas City’s Creed Humphrey.

Given cap and contract inflation over time, a better way to look at the relative value here is as a percentage of the cap. Former Over The Cap and PFF analyst Brad Spielberger laid it out well: Linderbaum currently occupies over eight and a half percent of the cap, while Humphrey’s contract topped out at just under seven percent. That might not seem like a lot, but that’s a huge difference in relative spending, and it highlights just how much money the Raiders are committing to Linderbaum.

Additionally, Linderbaum has, practically speaking, managed to get a fully guaranteed contract in a league where even quarterbacks struggle to reach that mark. While just his first two years are guaranteed at signing (which still comes out to $60 million of the $81 million total, a phenomenal cash flow), the third year becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2027. To get out of that, the Raiders would have to cut Linderbaum after one year, meaning they’d have paid him $60 million for a single season. That’s impractical.  

As the cap grows over time and the league makes more and more money, player contracts get larger. That’s not a surprise. But Linderbaum making $27 million a year is still an absurd jump for the center position. Were the Raiders forced to pay him that much to make sure he didn’t sign elsewhere? That’s possible, even likely, but while the Raiders can afford a bloated contract on their books right now, that doesn’t make it a good one.

Browns G Zion Johnson

Sticking with the offensive line theme to open this article, let’s examine the deal the Browns just signed Johnson to. A former first-round pick by the Chargers out of Boston College, Johnson started four seasons at left guard in Los Angeles. He was a stable starter and one of the few linemen who stayed mostly healthy for the Chargers all of last season. Now Cleveland has him on a three-year, $49.5 million contract with $32.39 million guaranteed.

The problem is Johnson hasn’t been very good in the NFL. There’s a reason the Chargers declined his fifth-year option and elected not to compete with his market. Last season, Johnson had a 56.5 grade in PFF’s system, good for 54th among qualifying guards. In four years, his best grade was a 64.9 in 2024, and his grade last season was the worst of his career.

Now, the Browns absolutely had to improve along the offensive line. They are likely to return zero starters in 2026 — a wild and extremely rare phenomenon in the NFL. But spending that much on a guard who barely qualifies as “starting caliber” is not a smart investment. This contract is likely to age poorly and Cleveland is already dealing with bad, bloated contracts on their books, hampering their ability to operate in free agency.

Titans WR Wan’Dale Robinson

A year ago, if you’d told someone that Robinson would be signing a four-year, $70 million contract in free agency, they’d have called you crazy. But that’s exactly what he did, following former HC Brian Daboll to Tennessee to operate in the slot there next to Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor on the outside. He’ll provide more juice for second-year QB Cam Ward to throw to.

A former second-round pick by the Giants out of Kentucky, Robinson was mostly a screen and gadget player for the first three seasons of his NFL career, operating around the line of scrimmage with lots of designed touches rather than a complex route tree. He had 93 receptions for just 699 yards in 2024. But he broke out in a major way down the stretch in 2025 after Malik Nabers went down with a torn ACL, totaling 92 receptions for 1,014 yards.

I’m not convinced that Robinson is a substantially different player than he was during the first three and a half years of his career, though. He was just forced into a more downfield role out of sheer necessity. Ayomanor, Ridley and Chimere Dike are all good deep threats and Robinson is likely to see a similar role to the slot-only, screen and quick pass game he’s known for — except now he’s being paid like one of the 25 best receivers in the league. This isn’t good value, especially when compared to receivers on similar contracts.

Giants TE Isaiah Likely

This one’s pretty simple. When John Harbaugh was let go by the Ravens and signed on as the new head coach in New York, he brought a few players with him. That includes Likely, who signed a three-year, $40 million contract with $27 million in guarantees. That makes him the fourth-highest-paid tight end in the league with the third-most guaranteed money.

Except Likely has done very little in his career to indicate he’s worth that standing. His best season came in 2024, when he had 42 receptions for 477 yards and six touchdowns. Yes, he was in a time-share with Mark Andrews for his entire Ravens tenure. But still — that’s not a strong resume. Likely is not a blocker and doesn’t offer much as an in-line option. He’s essentially a big slot, but without banner receiving production in the NFL.

Maybe Harbaugh knows something we don’t. He did coach him in Baltimore for four years, after all. And the Giants do have a need in the slot now that Robinson’s in Tennessee. But this is a pretty crazy contract relative to the rest of the market and you have to assume Likely wasn’t getting this kind of money elsewhere.

Panthers ED Jaelan Phillips

The lone defender to make this list, I’m of two minds about Phillips’ contract. On the one hand, the Panthers did fantastic work in free agency. They managed to get two of the best value deals in the entire league with LT Rasheed Walker and LB Devin Lloyd, who should make their team a lot better next year. Phillips is an upgrade on the edge of their defense, too. And after Nic Scourton showed flashes as a rookie, they took the pressure off him to immediately be a playoff closer by bringing in Phillips.

That said, they gave a lot of money to a player who’s missed a lot of time with injuries in his NFL career. Carolina signed him to a four-year, $120 million contract with $80 million in guarantees. That ranks eighth among all edge rushers in average annual value and is in the same range as guys like Josh Hines-Allen, Brian Burns and Nick Bosa.

Phillips’ resume isn’t on par with the names I just mentioned. He has 28 career sacks across five seasons and played a total of 12 games from 2023 to 2024 before playing in all 17 last year. Phillips hasn’t come close to recording double-digit sacks in a season and while his pressure numbers are good, his health is a major concern.

I like Phillips as a player quite a bit, and as usual, some contract inflation is to be expected. But the Panthers are paying him like one of the league’s best pass rushers, and he’s never played like that. He was 31st in the NFL in PFF grade last year — nothing on his profile suggests he’s worth guaranteeing $80 million to.

Dolphins QB Malik Willis

I didn’t understand the Willis signing when it came through, and it makes even less sense now. The contract itself is pretty reasonable: three years, $67.5 million, $45 million guaranteed. It’s essentially a two-year deal, as it’s pretty easy for the Dolphins to cut him prior to that third year with minimal dead money sticking on the cap. All things considered, not too bad for a starting quarterback on a veteran contract in this day and age.

But Miami is going into full teardown mode and appears set on gunning for the No. 1 pick in 2027. They’re taking on a ton of dead cap this year, including a record-setting hit for QB Tua Tagovailoa, to clear bad money from their books and set them up to do business in 2027 and beyond. The Dolphins traded star WR Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos for a bunch of picks, including the No. 30 pick in 2026. That’s all fine, and probably the right choice to make.

I don’t see how Willis fits into that plan, however. Miami will get a look at him as their starter this year, but the offensive infrastructure around him is so bad now, especially with Waddle in Denver. Will they learn anything useful? Even if he plays well, the Dolphins will likely be in a position to take his successor in 2027, and they’re basically stuck with his contract for another year even if they want to move on. It’s possible he could be an adequate bridge starter while a rookie sits behind him and learns, but it’s more likely we come to view this contract similarly to how we see the contract the Jets gave Justin Fields last year.