The Kirk Cousins Conundrum: How Will Falcons’ Expensive QB Standoff End?

The quarterback carousel is still spinning this offseason but there’s one spoke that doesn’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon — Falcons QB Kirk Cousins. 

The conventional thinking was that after the Falcons benched Cousins for first-round QB Michael Penix Jr. at the end of last season, the team would go ahead and turn the page entirely this offseason. Yet Atlanta’s decision makers repeatedly said this offseason they were just fine keeping Cousins on the roster to try and work out a trade and would not simply cut him. 

They weren’t bluffing. The Falcons put their money where their mouths were and allowed a $10 million 2026 bonus to become guaranteed, increasing their financial obligations to Cousins. At $27.5 million fully guaranteed, Cousins is on track to have the highest salary ever for a player expected to start the year as the No. 2 quarterback. 

That outcome would be less than ideal for both sides, which is why it still feels like there’s a path for the two sides to work something out. It won’t be straightforward, though. 

How Did We Get Here?

First, let’s take a step back. This current situation was created last year when the Falcons signed Cousins to a massive free agent contract, including $100 million guaranteed. That in and of itself was not unusual. Cousins was an established veteran starter, even coming off a torn Achilles, and the Falcons had a glaring need at quarterback to avoid wasting a roster they thought could do some damage. Cousins had personal ties to Atlanta and schematic familiarity with first-year Falcons OC Zac Robinson, so it seemed like a perfect match. 

But the Falcons shocked the world by using the No. 8 overall pick on Penix — a massive, massive investment considering the $100 million already guaranteed to Cousins. Their rationale was that as long as the end result was a quality starting quarterback, the level of investment was irrelevant. Cousins was the quarterback of right now, Penix was the quarterback of the future, learning on the bench behind a veteran to start his career just like Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love. 

The Falcons never publicly gave specifics about when “right now” was supposed to end and “the future” was supposed to begin but it’s safe to say things didn’t pan out the way they expected. Cousins felt blindsided and betrayed by how the situation was handled, with the Falcons not telling him until the night of the draft right before they turned in the pick. It damaged the trust between the two sides and undercut Cousins’ standing with the team before he even had a chance to establish himself. The fit with Robinson turned out not to be as clean as everyone involved hoped, and Cousins’ health became a complicating factor as well. He didn’t look all the way back from his Achilles injury to start the year, then shoulder and elbow injuries contributed to a poor stretch of play that ultimately led to his benching for Penix. 

Penix didn’t get the Falcons into the playoffs in his final three starts, but he showed enough to embolden the organization to move ahead with him as the starter in 2025. The quarterback of the future is now the quarterback of the present, and that doesn’t seem to leave room for Cousins.

For other teams, the next step would be simple. Not so much for the Falcons, who we have already established think a little differently than other teams. 

Ideally, Atlanta would trade Cousins to another team and salvage some value out of its investment. But Cousins’ $27.5 million guaranteed salary, his poor tape down the stretch and most importantly his no-trade clause are all significant impediments to a deal. Most teams thought the Falcons would ultimately cut Cousins to avoid guaranteeing another $10 million on March 17, leaving him free to pick his destination as a free agent at minimal cost to a new team. Something similar happened last year with the Broncos and QB Russell Wilson, and his availability for the veteran minimum was a major positive for his market. 

Rather than go that route, the Falcons reasoned they were on the hook for the money no matter what and had already budgeted to have him under contract as the starter in 2025. Cutting him would actually cost more because they’d then need to sign a replacement No. 2 quarterback. The additional $10 million guarantee next year is a tough pill, but that money is usually subject to offsets, meaning if Cousins signs with a new team, the Falcons are off the hook for whatever he signs for. The cap benefits of cutting Cousins in 2026 are also much more substantial. 

That logic can be debated just like their logic in 2024 when they drafted Penix. Just as it didn’t help Cousins to have Penix looming behind him on the depth chart, it doesn’t help Penix to have a veteran with a resume like Cousins behind him as he goes into his first year as a starter. Cousins doesn’t even have to be a negative locker room presence — and all reports suggest he’s been the consummate professional to Penix throughout everything. His presence alone creates the potential for a distraction. 

How Do Both Sides Proceed From Here?

The refrain from guys like GM Terry Fontenot and HC Raheem Morris this spring has been that they have to do what’s best for the Falcons when it comes to handling Cousins. Basically, from the team’s perspective Cousins is an asset that should have value for other teams, and it’s important to extract as much value as possible rather than just eating their losses. That value could come from cash/cap savings or getting back a draft pick. 

Ordinarily, there’d be minimal trade value for Cousins given the previously noted concerns about his salary, age (he turns 37 in August) and recent injury history. However, there is always more of a demand for competent passers than there is supply, and that’s especially true this year. The Browns, Giants and Steelers have all been trying to outmaneuver each other for Wilson and a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers this month. The Vikings loom too as a potential landing spot for a veteran quarterback, and there’s always the possibility of a significant injury taking out a starter for another team. It’d be like threading a needle, but there is a path for the Falcons to find a market for Cousins. 

There’s a third party to consider here and it’s an important one: Cousins himself. He has an important voice in how things play out with his no-trade clause and his desires are relevant. He clearly wants to start, he’s said as much in a couple of interviews since the benching. Judging by the report that Cousins is unlikely to waive his no-trade clause until after the draft, the way this past year played out has left some scars, so he’s also likely looking for a level of investment and desire by another team. 

There’s one more thing we can predict that Cousins wants, based on history, and that’s to be well-paid. Cousins has excelled at the business side of the game, maximizing his earnings with multiple teams and signing multiple guaranteed contracts. For most of his career, all of his desires have been aligned, but soon he could be faced with a decision about which is more important — guaranteed money in the bank or an opportunity to play. 

I feel confident that if Cousins agreed to void the guarantees on his salary, the Falcons would happily wish him well and send him on his way. Of course, that would mean leaving $27.5 million on the table, a huge sum even for someone who’s made as much as Cousins has. The reality is money is a factor here for everyone involved; the Falcons, Cousins and whichever team he plays for next. As negotiations proceed in the coming weeks (or months), this will be one of the major sticking points. 

Historical Precedent

There was a similar situation a few years ago that could be instructive as the Falcons and Cousins look for a resolution. After the Browns traded for QB Deshaun Watson in 2022, they still had former starting QB Baker Mayfield on the roster. He was in the final year of his contract on the fifth-year option and due $18.8 million, all of which was fully guaranteed. Like Cousins, he was coming off a down year impacted by injury, and that plus his contract sandbagged his trade value. 

It didn’t help it was abundantly clear Mayfield wasn’t in the Browns’ plans, as they signed QB Jacoby Brissett to serve as a bridge starter while Watson served his suspension. Cleveland had a hard time trading Mayfield even though 2022 was similar to this year in that there were not a lot of potential starters available, particularly in the draft. 

The Browns were ultimately able to find a trade partner for Mayfield, agreeing to terms with the Panthers for a conditional fifth-round pick that could become a fourth if Mayfield hit certain playing time benchmarks. Cleveland picked up $10.5 million of the tab, the Panthers picked up $4.85 million and the remaining $3.5 million Mayfield agreed to convert from guaranteed salary to incentives.

Essentially, Mayfield took a pay cut to facilitate a trade out of Cleveland and a chance to play. 

Things might have to play out similarly for the Falcons and Cousins. There’s not necessarily a time crunch. Cousins is willing to wait for the draft to bring clarity, and any trade the Falcons make is easier on their books after June 1 given how his deal is currently constructed. The two sides can wait to see if a team or two still needs help at the position after the draft. Odds are the answer will be yes, although it’s not guaranteed. 

The Browns have seemed all offseason like the perfect destination for Cousins given his familiarity with the coaching staff and their glaring hole at quarterback. If things fall through between the Steelers and Rodgers, Pittsburgh would be in a pickle. There’s even a scenario where a return to the Vikings could make sense if J.J. McCarthy suffers some kind of injury or setback. 

Once the landing spot becomes clear, all three parties can buckle down to negotiating the specifics of a deal. The draft pick involved will likely depend on who’s eating the lion’s share of Cousins’ salary. The more the Falcons are willing to keep on their books, the better the pick. Cousins can also help bridge any gap if things get close by taking a pay cut, like Mayfield did. If a trade happens, I think it will end up looking a lot like that deal, with Atlanta getting a mid-round pick and eating a majority of the bill. 

Worst-Case Scenario

While there’s a potential blueprint for a trade, particularly if it ends up being the Browns on the other side of the table, these are going to be complicated negotiations, even more than the Mayfield talks were. There are three parties to satisfy between the Falcons, Cousins and a new team. There’s also a lot of money involved to haggle over, $37.5 million in total when factoring in the 2026 $10 million guarantee. The guarantee would follow Cousins to his new team and further complicate things, making this a potential multi-year commitment for a trade partner.  

There might not even be a landing spot available for Cousins. If the Steelers land Rodgers, the Browns use the No. 2 pick on a rookie they’re ready to play and Minnesota’s happy with McCarthy, Cousins and the Falcons would be out of luck. Even if there is an injury, the timing could scuttle a deal. Quarterback is a tough position to jump in on the fly, and often teams prefer to roll with players who may be lesser talents, but are cheaper and have the advantage of time in the system. 

In the worst-case scenario, Cousins stays in Atlanta as the most expensive backup of all time and has to bide his time behind Penix. He’ll collect his $27.5 million and then likely be released in 2026, as the Falcons would save $22.5 million in cap space and have a chance to get offsets for the remaining $10 million guaranteed. It’s not clear what Cousins’ market would be at 38 with a year on the bench but $10 million is a low bar to clear. 

And who knows, perhaps Cousins will get another chance. Penix has a notable injury history from his time in college, it was one of the biggest question marks about him as a prospect in fact. If the Falcons truly are serious about keeping Cousins on as a backup, we may not have seen the last of him under center after all.