Which NFL Coaches Have The Hottest Seats? 

It can be easy to forget at this time of year when optimism reigns supreme that “NFL head coach” is a job with very little security (though it certainly pays well).

Five head coaches were fired last year and that was lower than average. Ten coaches were replaced in 2022 and history says six or more will be on the outs by the time we get to the end of this season. 

So who are the leading candidates? Some names are pretty obvious — if your owner had to explicitly say they weren’t firing you last season, it’s safe to say your seat is already warm. Others might be a little more surprising. 

The key thing to remember is that coaches don’t get fired for not winning. They get fired for not meeting the owner’s expectations. Winning is a huge part of that but the difference is crucial to remember as we go through this list, tiering coaches from the hottest to least hottest seats entering the 2023 season: 

Tier 1: Hot

Commanders HC Ron Rivera

No real shocker here. Rivera is entering his fourth season in DC and has yet to record a winning record, though Washington did claw into the postseason in his first year in 2020 with a 7-9 record. More importantly, the Commanders are under new ownership as of July, and new ownership always means big changes. Rivera knows this from how his time in Carolina came to an end after owner Dave Tepper took over for Jerry Richardson in 2018. Tepper stayed in evaluation mode in 2018, but when the team couldn’t get over a losing streak in 2019, he pulled the plug. 

Rivera will get this season to make his case to Josh Harris and any other prominent voices in the new ownership group. But everyone is well aware of what the stakes are if Washington doesn’t make the playoffs. That’s why it was so surprising when Washington wasn’t more aggressive at quarterback this offseason, electing to stick with 2022 fifth-round QB Sam Howell after one decent start and sign veteran QB Jacoby Brissett, a journeyman backup and game manager. 

All hope is not lost — I think the Commanders have a better shot at the playoffs than a lot of people think right now — but it’s fair to say the odds are long and Rivera’s back is against the wall. 

Browns HC Kevin Stefanski

Stefanski piloted the Browns to their first playoff appearance in 17 years in his first season with the team in 2020. His win percentage is top-five in team history and he’s easily the best coach the team has had since Bill Belichick was in charge in the early 1990s. Yet if the Browns don’t make the playoffs this season, there’s a good chance Stefanski isn’t back for the last year of his contract. 

Remember that line about expectations? Though the national media isn’t jumping on the bandwagon yet, it’s clear from local Browns beat reporters that internal expectations are legitimately high. Cleveland has operated this offseason like a team that expects to contend, trading for veterans and pushing out salary via restructures. They didn’t trade all those picks for QB Deshaun Watson and give him a fully-guaranteed five-year deal expecting him to just be adequate. The Browns went after Watson despite alllll the baggage associated with him because they thought he could be a superstar. 

So what happens if the Browns and Watson underperform expectations? The quarterback won’t be going anywhere. His contract gives him more job security than Stefanski and it’s already clear who the most important person in the Cleveland organization is. Stefanski has a reputation in league circles for being egoless (a true rarity in the NFL) and adaptable, but there are defined tendencies of his that the Browns seem to be moving away from. 

In 2020 and 2021, the Browns led the NFL in “13 personnel” which is one running back and three tight ends on the field. They also used a lot of “12 personnel” (two tight ends) and were on the lower end of the spectrum for 11 personnel usage (three receivers on the field). That fit what Stefanski wanted to do, which was pound defenses with the running game from under-center formations and set up for play-action chunk gains. 

Cleveland got a glimpse of Watson in the Stefanski offense last year during training camp and the final six games. While there were a lot of other variables at play, Watson’s inability to find a rhythm was clear. To make Watson more comfortable, the Browns are going to be transitioning to a more open approach, with more receivers on the field and more spread formations similar to how the Texans deployed him. The Browns have already pushed all their chips in on Watson, so it might not even be fair to call this doubling down. It makes sense to try and maximize what he does best at this point. 

It could all work out. Last week I picked the Browns as a potential playoff party crasher in the AFC if it all comes together for them, as there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the potential for this squad in 2023. If that happens, Stefanski will get a lucrative contract extension and a couple more years at least of job security. If it doesn’t work out, it’s clear who the fall guy will be. It might seem like two extreme outcomes, but sometimes that’s life in the NFL. 

Chargers HC Brandon Staley

Like Stefanski, Staley is also poised to be a victim of expectations. In his first two seasons, Staley’s Chargers have had back-to-back winning seasons and are 19-15 overall with one playoff appearance. With all the injuries the Chargers sustained last year, Staley did a solid job of rallying the team and getting four wins in a row to go from 6-6 to 10-6 and in the postseason. 

But when you have Justin Herbert at quarterback, the expectations are a lot higher than one playoff appearance and no playoff wins in two seasons — especially when a blown 27-0 lead to the Jaguars in the wildcard round is also big glaring black mark on your record. 

Last year, Sean Payton did everything short of going on FOX and spelling it out for Chargers ownership to indicate he would love to take the head coaching job if it was made available. For whatever reason, whether it was faith in Staley or an aversion to giving Payton the money and control he would have commanded, the Chargers never went down that path. Instead, Staley met with ownership and stayed on, albeit with major changes. He let go of both his coordinators, Joe Lombardi on offense and Renaldo Hill on defense, hiring former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore and promoting secondary coach Derrick Ansley to defensive coordinator. 

Landing Moore could be a coup, as he’s called some prolific offenses in Dallas over the past few years and was let go due to philosophical differences with the head coach. So far the early word is he plans to be much more aggressive utilizing Herbert’s ability downfield than Lombardi was. Defense is Staley’s area of expertise, so the buck still stops with him on that side of the ball regardless of the coordinator change. Los Angeles has been in the 20s on defense in his first two years, which is not up to standard. 

Even though the competition in the AFC is fierce, particularly in the AFC West, the Chargers have enough talent to be right in the mix with the top teams in the conference. Obviously they have a superstar talent at quarterback. The offensive line is firmly in the top half of the league and Los Angeles has plenty of skill position talent between RB Austin Ekeler and WRs Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and first-rounder Quentin Johnston. The defense is still a work in progress but S Derwin James is one of the league’s best defensive players and the duo of OLBs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack could be formidable if both can stay healthy in 2023. 

If they end up missing the playoffs, it will lead to hard questions about whether Staley is the right person to maximize that talent. Another factor to consider here is that the Chargers are currently over $50 million in the red for 2024. Even if they make the playoffs, major changes are inevitable. 

Tier II: Warming Up

Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles

Although Tampa Bay made the playoffs in Bowles’ first season as the hand-picked successor to former HC Bruce Arians, the entire tenor surrounding the team’s 2022 season was miserable. The Bucs limped to an 8-9 record, winning the NFC South despite their best efforts to the contrary. Even with Tom Brady still in the fold for one more season, the offense regressed significantly, becoming far too stale and predictable. Dallas finally put the team out of its misery in the wildcard win. 

The fall guy for the offensive struggles was OC Byron Leftwich, who Bowles fired and replaced with Seahawks QB coach Dave Canales. With Brady retired — for good this time — Canales will be given the job of trying to resuscitate former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield’s career, just like Seattle did last year with bust-turned-sensation Geno Smith. I can’t say it’s an impossible outcome, but the odds certainly aren’t good. Mayfield has so far yet to pull definitively away from QB Kyle Trask in training camp. 

So yeah, expectations aren’t high in Tampa. The team maxed out its credit cards during the Brady era to fortify the roster for multiple title pushes, and now the bill has come due. The Bucs are saddled with a league-leading $75 million in dead money in 2023. Everyone knows this is a transition year for the team, and that will color how Bowles is evaluated after the season. Six wins would be seen as somewhat of a success, even though the roster isn’t devoid of talent. 

The question is what happens if the wheels fall completely off? Tampa Bay could be dismal on offense with the quarterback issues. The defense has been solid and a borderline top-ten unit the past two seasons, but if it collapses under the strain of picking up all the slack, it won’t look good for Bowles considering that side of the ball is supposed to be his specialty. What helped doom Bowles’ first stint as a head coach with the Jets — beyond three straight seasons of five or fewer wins — was how the Jets regressed on defense after a strong first season. If that happens in Tampa Bay in 2023 and it looks like Bowles is losing control of the locker room, how confident can ownership be that Bowles is the right guy to lead the team? 

One variable to consider is if December comes and the Buccaneers are in the running for the No. 1 or No. 2 pick, would the team tank to lock up one of the picks? It’s something multiple teams could consider this year with USC QB Caleb Williams already drawing rave reviews as an elite prospect and more of a premium than ever on having strong quarterback play. If the team tanks, does Bowles get more of a pass for the record than he would otherwise? Or are the same questions about maximizing the team’s future still weighed heavily? 

Patriots HC Bill Belichick

It’s fair to say at this point Belichick is one of the two or three greatest head coaches in NFL history — if not No. 1. He has the most Super Bowl appearances (nine), most Super Bowl wins (six) and is 19 wins away from catching former Dolphins HC Don Shula for most career wins, including playoffs. Shula has 347, Belichick has 328, and just passed former Bears great George Halas to move into second place this past season. 

So the idea of Belichick being on the hot seat seems sacrilegious. But the end comes for everyone in the NFL and it’s rarely graceful. Halas missed the playoffs in his final four seasons. Former Steelers HC Chuck Noll had one playoff appearance in his last seven seasons. Former Cowboys HC Tom Landry ended his coaching career with three straight losing seasons. Even the great Bill Walsh, who retired from the NFL after winning the 1988 Super Bowl with the 49ers, had a 4-12 conference record in his final two years at Stanford when he returned to the sidelines for another coaching stint. 

Belichick has missed the playoffs two out of the past three seasons and hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2018 Super Bowl against the Rams. It’s become clear owner Robert Kraft is starting to lose patience. Kraft was asked at the owners meeting this year if the future Hall of Fame coach will be allowed to chase Shula’s record in New England for as long as it takes to break it. Kraft took a page out of Belichick’s press conference book with his lack of commitment. 

“Look, I’d like him to break Don Shula’s record, but I’m not looking for any our players to get great stats,” Kraft said. “We’re about winning, and doing whatever we can to win. And that’s what our focus is now. And I — it’s very important to me that we make the playoffs, and that’s what I hope happens next year.”

I don’t know how you come away from that thinking that Belichick’s standing in New England is as rock solid as it’s ever been. Maybe Kraft didn’t give an outright playoff mandate there but he sure skirted pretty close. It’s clear there’s pressure on Belichick to not only get back to the playoffs but to win. He’s a proud man too, he surely wants to prove he can achieve greatness without Brady just as Brady was ready to prove himself elsewhere too. 

So far, though, the evidence says Belichick misses Brady a lot more than vice versa. It’s not so much that modern football has passed Belichick by as it did with other great coaches. His genius is still evident on defense where he continues to have a lot of influence. New England was 11th in scoring defense and No. 8 in total defense in 2022. They were top-five in both categories in 2021 and look like they’ll be tough defensively yet again in 2023. 

The inexplicable decision to replace former OC Josh McDaniels with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge — who were previously defensive and special teams coaches — continues to look like one of Belichick’s biggest missteps, leading to friction between him and QB Mac Jones after a promising rookie season. Perhaps bringing back Bill O’Brien to call plays on offense rectifies that but the Patriots are facing stiff competition in the AFC and there are still questions about whether Jones is good enough to hold his own in that kind of cage match. 

This season will start to provide some more answers to those questions. New England should be solid and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them threaten for a wildcard spot with a strong defense and competent offense spearheaded by the running game. Will that be enough for Kraft? We’ll see…

Jets HC Robert Saleh

There probably isn’t a team that’s seen as wild of a swing in expectations from 2022 to 2023 as the Jets. That’ll happen when you trade for a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers. Now everyone in New York is embracing the idea that the Jets are Super Bowl contenders. 

That might be true, but it also leaves a long way to fall off the high bar the Jets have set for themselves. Just stop and think for a second about what would happen if the Jets miss the playoffs this season. The fallout will be nuclear. 

And it’s not like it’s that far out of the realm of possibility for the Jets to miss the playoffs. Last year proved a top veteran quarterback isn’t a panacea for other problems or an assurance of the playoffs. Green Bay went 8-9 with Rodgers last year and he was far from blameless in their struggles. The Jets’ offensive line has looked like a major weakness in training camp so far and Rodgers’ splits when he was pressured vs kept clean were stark in 2022. 

New York is going to emphasize its defense (No. 4 in scoring and yards in 2022) and running game in 2023, with a lift from Rodgers in key moments. The Jets should be pretty good on defense again but success on that side of the ball is a lot more volatile from year to year. If they’re “just” top-12 instead of top-five, is that enough to pick up the slack if the offense starts slow? The competition in the AFC and the division is fierce, too. New York faces the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos and Eagles before a bye in Week 7. A 2-4 start is very much in play, which would put Saleh in crisis management mode. 

I think if the team got some bad breaks and just narrowly missed the playoffs while looking like it belonged with the playoff teams in the AFC, owner Woody Johnson would have an easier time chalking up the season to an adjustment period, despite all the measures the Jets have put in place to surround Rodgers with as much familiarity as possible. If the Jets look more like the 2022 versions of themselves or the Packers, however, that kind of season wouldn’t be fun for anyone involved.

Rodgers has talked about playing multiple seasons with the Jets but he’s considered retirement every season for a few years now. If he struggles in 2023, it might be a consideration again. If Rodgers retires and the Jets flop, that puts Saleh and Douglas on the chopping block too. That will mark three years and no playoffs for Saleh, five for Douglas. The Jets have been criticized in the past for not aligning coach and general manager, so it makes sense for them to do a clean sweep if things really end up being that bad. 

All of that is the worst-case scenario — and we usually don’t see the absolute worst-case scenario play out. But with all the talk about the ceiling potential for the Jets in 2023, it’s worth at least acknowledging the real downside and what it could mean for Saleh’s future. 

Tier III: Stable Barring Meltdown

Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy

McCarthy has been a fixture on these kinds of lists for a few years running now after going 6-10 in his first year in Dallas. Most other outlets will have him a lot higher than seventh in danger, though. In hindsight, it’s easy to say the idea of McCarthy being on the hot seat was always overstated, and I think going forward for this year at least it’s overblown too. 

The threat of McCarthy losing his job has rested on a few assumptions. The first is this idea of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones as a meddlesome, impatient, authoritarian presence in the Dallas organization blinded by a burning desire to get back to the Super Bowl before he dies. In this regard, Jones is still living off of his reputation from the 90s. For the better part of the last decade, Jones has done a good job of delegating to his lieutenants in football operations. Dallas hasn’t been perfect but they’ve done a great job overall of finding talent and building up some strong teams. Their only losing seasons in the past 16 years have coincided with major quarterback injuries. 

Jones has also been remarkably patient with his head coaches and has not shown anything resembling a quick hook since the turn of the century. The most glaring example of this was Jason Garrett, who hung around for 10 seasons despite an overall mediocre body of work. But Jones gave at least three full seasons to Wade Phillips and Dave Campo, too

The second big assumption was that Jones had eyes for Sean Payton and would jump at the first chance to hire him. Payton was the one that got away, leaving his job as the Cowboys QB coach to take over the Saints head coaching position in 2006. There’s a rumor that Jones even made a run at trading for Payton in 2019. Payton’s retirement in 2021 kicked up a speculation storm that Jones would dump McCarthy and go after his white whale. That didn’t abate this past year — McCarthy’s second straight with 12 wins but also his second straight with a tough loss to the 49ers in the playoffs. 

Instead, Jones doubled down on McCarthy, and now Payton’s off the market. Payton represented a real viable alternative to McCarthy as a proven winner with a long track record of offensive success. Now if Jones decides to move on, he has to spin the coaching wheel again with little guarantee of success. It doesn’t mean that he won’t take that plunge eventually but it does mean the bar to move on from McCarthy is going to be high. 

What does that mean for 2023? Dallas has a talented roster again and should at minimum be able to replicate last season when they were 12-5 and second in the NFC East to the Eagles. Catching Philadelphia isn’t out of the question, either. McCarthy is taking over offensive play-calling and will have more of a hand in the offense as the team tries to get over the hump in the postseason. It also means more of the blame if the team falls short is going to fall on him. 

Still, it would likely take Dallas missing the playoffs completely (and not due to a quarterback injury) to prompt Jones to make a change. Considering the state of the NFC and the dynamics witih McCarthy gaining more control, that would be a massive disappointment. 

Saints HC Dennis Allen

Allen was tabbed as the internal replacement when Payton retired, going from defensive coordinator to head coach after seven years in charge of New Orleans’ defense. In that time, the Saints improved from near the bottom in scoring defense in his first two years to two straight years in the top five in 2020 and 2021. Allen was still heavily involved on defense as the head coach and the Saints were ninth in scoring defense in 2022. 

The jury is still out on Allen as a head coach, however. To his credit, the 2022 season was the best year he’s put on record in charge of a team. The downside is the Saints were just 7-10 and Allen was 8-28 in two and a quarter years as the head coach of the Raiders. The offense was held back by inconsistency at quarterback, as Jameis Winston made it just a few starts before being injured and benched. Backup QB Andy Dalton had his bouts of inconsistencies as well, and the Saints ranked 31st in the NFL in takeaway margin. 

There wasn’t a lot of serious chatter about Allen’s job security as the season progressed, however. The Saints have been used to a lot of stability in the past decade-plus and didn’t seem eager to change that. Quarterback was the bigger scapegoat and the team went hard after veteran QB Derek Carr to try and bring some stability to the position. The Saints have had five different starters in the two years since Drew Brees retired. 

It’s pretty clear the Saints think Carr is the missing piece to get them back into the postseason. The veteran has never been a top-tier NFL quarterback but he’s had success with a strong supporting cast and the Saints are high on the quality of their offensive line, skill position talent and defense. The thinking is if Carr can avoid turnovers and get the ball to the team’s playmakers, New Orleans is in a great position to take a wide-open NFC South. 

The Saints are the preseason favorites to win the division but there are still some potential holes. A lot of key players on defense are getting up there in age. The offensive line has some good players but isn’t as good as some recent iterations and the depth is worse. There are some availability questions for certain skill players and Carr has also been slow to acclimate to drastic changes in his career before. It might not come together the way the Saints expect in 2023. 

Still, barring a total meltdown, I do think Allen will have some latitude. The Saints seem determined to give him a long leash and emphasize continuity for as long as they can. They’re also tied to Carr for two years based on the contract they gave him, so there’s a little more incentive to try and run things back in 2024 rather than kick off what would likely be a massive reset. 

Raiders HC Josh McDaniels

The Raiders have changed their tone heading into this season compared to last, and are now setting expectations for a longer timeline to return to playoff contention as opposed to last year when they tried to go swing for swing with the rest of the AFC West in the offseason. More importantly, Raiders owner Mark Davis seems to be on board with the vision McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler have presented. With his WNBA squad scratching Davis’ itch to win, he’s more likely to be patient with the Raiders even if the losses pile up in 2023. 

What is more likely to spur Davis to some kind of action would be if the Raiders start getting embarrassed. We’re talking non-competitive blowouts and things starting to mount off the field. Players taking potshots at each other or the coaching staff in the media, or a return to some of the old McDaniels dysfunction we saw in his first coaching stint a decade ago with the Broncos. 

McDaniels has been careful to at least portray an image of a coach who has matured and learned a lot since his first opportunity to run a team. So far a lot of people have been willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. It’s also clear he and Ziegler subscribe to the idea of “under-promise and over-deliver.” While their comments, both public and private, suggest it will be a year or two before the Raiders are serious contenders, their actions on some transactions show they’re trying to set up the team to “over-achieve” and win six or seven games if they can. 

Either way, the odds are strong that McDaniels and Ziegler will have at least one more year together after 2023. 

Falcons HC Arthur Smith

Year 3 is big for head coaches, as a lot of owners want to see results by then with two full offseasons to draft and develop, sign free agents and build your culture. That’s no different for the Falcons and Smith, who enter 2023 ready to compete for a playoff spot after back-to-back seasons of 7-10 records. 

After two years of austerity due to a salary cap situation that was the worst in the NFL, the Falcons acted a lot like contenders this offseason. They had the second-most cap space behind only the Chicago Bears and spent big, extending G Chris Lindstrom, re-signing RT Kaleb McGary and adding S Jessie Bates, DL Calais Campbell, CB Jeff Okudah, LB Kaden Elliss and OLB Bud Dupree to try and turn around a defense that’s been pushed around a lot over the past two seasons. They kept adding to the offense, too, with first-round RB Bijan Robinson the big name coming in. 

With that influx of talent, the Falcons definitely expect to be in the mix in the NFC South, which has a major void of power after Brady retired from the Bucs. But Atlanta still has a massive question mark at the quarterback position, where 2022 third-rounder Desmond Ridder is taking over as the starter after a decent enough stretch of four starts to end last year. Ridder wasn’t overwhelming in those appearances, completing 63.5 percent of his pass attempts for 708 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, three lost fumbles and a 2-2 overall record. 

Still, it was enough for the Falcons to not seriously pursue any other alternatives at quarterback this offseason. The only other quarterback they added was Taylor Heinicke, and while he got top-tier backup money and has a lot of starting experience if things go really poorly with Ridder, it’s clear he’s the No. 2. So the Falcons are in an interesting position this year of expecting to take a step forward but still evaluating the most important position in the game. 

I think that means Falcons owner Arthur Blank is going to be patient with Smith even if the team doesn’t make the playoffs in 2023. Smith has said he’s not going to ask too much of Ridder and the hope is the scheme on offense and an improved defense can be enough for the team to have some success. If Ridder isn’t up to the task, it’s back to the drawing board next offseason to try and fix the quarterback position. Barring something drastic, I think Smith is going to be the one making that call. 

Tier IV: Watch List For 2024

I don’t think either of these two coaches are in serious danger this season but they are worth mentioning because a bad 2023 could put them on notice going into 2024. The first is Bears HC Matt Eberflus. The Bears were woeful in 2023, but a lot of that seemed by design to try and maximize draft position and give younger players reps. Just about every coach gets a pass for their first year as well since the learning curve for NFL head coaches is steep. There aren’t a lot of serious expectations for the Bears to compete for the playoffs or anything in 2023 but they do need to show signs of improvement. If the arrow isn’t pointed up for the organization after this season, Eberflus’ leash will be shorter in 2024. 

The second is Lions HC Dan Campbell. I think he’s accumulated enough goodwill that missing the mark on the high expectations wouldn’t necessarily be a death knell for him in Detroit. Something to consider is that even though there are only 32 head coaching jobs and that lack of supply creates natural demand, there weren’t folks lining up clamoring to coach for the Lions the last time they had a vacancy. Campbell has done a lot to change the perception of Detroit as an organization in his short time in charge, even if things are still a work in progress. 

Things would have to go horribly, horribly wrong in 2023 for the Lions to fire Campbell at this point. But if Detroit misses the playoffs, it absolutely will put Campbell on the hot seat going into 2024.