2023 NFL Mock Draft, Including Trades

By
Logan Ulrich
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Here’s my final stab at a 2023 NFL Mock Draft, with the addition of a few plausible trade scenarios.NFL Draft

The real thing is scheduled to kick off on Thursday, April 27, at 8 p.m. Rounds 2-3 will begin at 7 p.m. on Friday with the final four rounds finishing up on Saturday starting at noon. 

Note that there are only 31 picks in the first round this year as the Dolphins forfeited their pick this year for tampering. 

We’ve included links to some other helpful resources. 

2023 NFL Mock Draft

1 – Carolina Panthers (CHI): Alabama QB Bryce Young

The GM was discussing nutritional plans for Young to help him add bulk. The pick is locked in. 

2 – Houston Texans: Alabama DE Will Anderson Jr.

This pick has progressively gone from chalky to smoky the closer we’ve gotten to the draft. Quarterback has been the long-running assumption but that’s been challenged lately, as apparently Houston doesn’t love the remaining prospects as much as it loved Young. They could still take a quarterback here, but with plenty of draft capital this year and next year, they have the ammo to play the board a little bit.

Anderson is one of the cleanest prospects in this class and plays a position HC DeMeco Ryans puts a high value on. He’s not as toolsy as Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson, which is why there’s been some buzz Houston might forego Anderson. Ultimately I think Anderson’s elite production and pedigree win out. 

3 – Arizona Cardinals: Ohio State OT Paris Johnson

Arizona’s had a for-sale sign attached to this pick for ages. It’s looking more and more as if any deal that happens will have to happen on the clock. And those are rare. The last time that happened with a top-five pick was in 2017 when the Bears swapped one spot with the 49ers for QB Mitchell Trubisky.

Now, this is a weird year. Perhaps the Seahawks or Lions want to make a small jump up for one of the defensive prospects. The Cardinals could also be willing to take a discount on the traditional trade value chart to move down. And there’s always the possibility of a team coming up for a quarterback if the Texans pass, though I think in that scenario it’s more likely teams let the board play out more. 

In my opinion, the most likely outcome is Arizona has to stick and pick. And they throw the first curveball of the draft by taking Johnson. Arizona has explored some of the tackle options with their top 30 visits and the offensive line came up this week as a major problem point they want to address with the long-term future of QB Kyler Murray in mind. This pick has been either Anderson or Wilson for ages, but this class is deeper at edge rusher than it is offensive tackle. New HC Jonathan Gannon has a background on defense, so maybe he thinks he can coach up players more on that side of the ball. 

4 – Indianapolis Colts: Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud

There’s been a ton of buzz for weeks about Kentucky QB Will Levis being the prime choice for Indianapolis. However, Colts GM Chris Ballard seemed to pump the brakes on that. 

Ballard is a rare straight shooter in a job notorious for misdirection and outright lies. He’s not necessarily tipping his hand or rendering a verdict one way or another, but it’s notable he felt the need to address the Levis rumors specifically. I think the Colts would like a lot of things about Levis but Stroud is a far more polished, pro-ready prospect. 

5 – Seattle Seahawks (DEN): Georgia DT Jalen Carter

Would Seattle take a quarterback like Richardson? Seahawks GM John Schneider and HC Pete Carroll have openly embraced the possibility. They have done a lot of homework on the class and were at the pro days for all the top guys. The official team Twitter even posted photos of the team brass meeting with all the prospects. 

However, Seattle didn’t bring in any of them for top 30 visits. More importantly, the Seahawks under Carroll have tended to view the quarterback more as one of 11 and have not invested the same resources in the position as other teams. If the Seahawks have a quarterback graded as the best player available at No. 5, I think they’ll take him. I don’t think they’ll have a player graded better than Carter — assuming they are comfortable with all the extra stuff, which is admittedly a major assumption.  

6 – Detroit Lions (LAR): Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson

Judging from the general sense I get from Detroit’s local beat reporters, Wilson sliding here would be close to the best possible scenario for the Lions. In fact, I wonder if the Lions would consider a small move up the board for Wilson, especially if the Cardinals are going to take a discount off the trade value chart. They could also sit if they’re content with taking one of the top two cornerbacks, as one and potentially both should be available. 

7 – Las Vegas Raiders: Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon

Corner is a huge need and Witherspoon is one of the prospects teams seem to have the fewest questions about. He’s not as traitsy as Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez, but his feel for the position is so much better right now and he’s a ferocious tackler. The buzz linking the Raiders to a quarterback has cooled significantly, although they’re not married to veteran QB Jimmy Garoppolo past this year. 

8 – Atlanta Falcons: Texas RB Bijan Robinson

Next to figuring out what’s going to happen with all the quarterbacks, slotting Robinson is the hardest challenge of mock draft season. It’s not about talent, as Robinson is one of the most talented and zero-doubt prospects in the whole class. If anything that makes it harder, as all the questions around Robinson revolve around the position he plays and how much NFL teams should value it. 

So far the Falcons have shown themselves to be one of the teams that cares the least about perceptions of positional value, at least in the conventional way. They’ve gone with offensive skill positions in the past two drafts and have been once again linked heavily to Robinson. Atlanta runs the ball at one of the highest rates in football and that doesn’t figure to change with QB Desmond Ridder under center in 2023. 

I think the Falcons would ideally like to trade back and still be able to make this pick. Perhaps the Texans look to come back up for a quarterback. The Steelers have explored a move into the top 10 picks, presumably for an offensive tackle. Dropping down to 17 might be too far, however. The general consensus is there aren’t nearly as many first-round grades for teams as in normal years, only in the range of 15. That’s another factor that’s going to push Robinson higher. 

9 – Chicago Bears (CAR): Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez

With this pick, the Bears want to come away with a blue-chip player who ideally plays a premium position. There have been a lot of links to Carter and Johnson but both went off the board in the top five picks here. An edge rusher is a possibility with some interesting options still on the board. But cornerback is also still a need and Chicago has talked about it qualifying as one of their premium positions. Gonzalez has prototypical height, length and speed for a cornerback. 

10 – TRADE, Detroit Lions (NO via PHI): Florida QB Anthony Richardson

Getting a handle on what’s going to happen with this quarterback class has been a complete headache outside of the No. 1 pick. There are a lot of possibilities and very few certainties, which probably is intentional on the part of the teams to try and kick up dust to obfuscate their plans. 

The Lions have done some work on the quarterbacks in this class. Most of their efforts, at least on the surface, have been focused on the prospective backup types who are projected to go on Day 3. They had a formal Combine interview with Richardson and hosted Stroud and Hooker for top 30 visits. Aside from being at all the pro days for the top prospects, there’s not been much else reported. And they’ve been highly complimentary of QB Jared Goff as the starter. 

However, it’s worth noting Goff has two years left on his contract and the team hasn’t committed one way or another to an extension. At this point in his career, Goff is who he is, and there are questions about how much of a ceiling he provides. If the Lions are going to be looking for a talent upgrade at some point, why not take the swing on a prospect like Richardson? They might not be in range to take a prospect with this kind of upside for a long time. Frankly there’s a case to be made for making the pick at No. 6 and not making a trade, but the Eagles are always happy to wheel and deal. A third-round pick this year and next could get it done.  

11 – TRADE, Pittsburgh Steelers (TEN): Georgia OT Broderick Jones

There’s been quite a bit of smoke around both the Steelers and Titans exploring a move up the board. In the case of Tennessee, however, they’re also looking at moving down and I think that makes far more sense given the state of their roster. They have needs everywhere and it doesn’t make sense to send off a bunch of picks for a quarterback when they’re not a quarterback away from competing. 

Pittsburgh sends a third-round pick this year — and I bet they’ll look to recoup some of that value by trading the No. 32 overall pick which happens to be the first pick in the second round this year later on — to move up and get a left tackle of the future. Historically speaking, this would be out of character for the Steelers. But new GM Omar Khan has already shaken a few things up in his first year on the job. 

12 – Houston Texans(CLE): Kentucky QB Will Levis

I have no idea what the Texans are going to do but they have to draft a quarterback at some point, right? Levis is a huge wildcard still with just days to go until the draft. He has some vociferous fans in the NFL community but put up some bad tape in 2022 and there have been some inklings that his interview process hasn’t been the smoothest. From a physical tools standpoint, however, he’s behind only Richardson in this class. And the Shanahan-style offense the Texans are installing should be a great fit to maximize Levis’ strengths in the NFL. 

13 – Green Bay Packers (NYJ): Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

It was important for the Packers to have this pick swap with the Jets as a part of their trade for QB Aaron Rodgers. This gets them in front of the Patriots, so it would seem to indicate Green Bay has some level of concern about overlap between their boards. That could be for a tackle. There’s been a lot of noise around the Packers and potentially taking a tight end, which isn’t the top need for New England but not one they could discount either. There’s also the receiver position. Smith-Njigba is lighter than the Packers have typically preferred for receivers but they do have a need for a slot receiver and Smith-Njigba projects well as a safety blanket for new QB Jordan Love.  

14 – New England Patriots: Northwestern OL Peter Skoronski

This would mark back-to-back seasons where the Patriots have used a first-round pick on a guard. But Skoronski just sticks out like a sore thumb here compared to the rest of the board. The Patriots aren’t as strict with athletic thresholds for their offensive linemen as some other teams, and while the NFL predominantly views Skoronski as a guard, perhaps New England is open to him continuing to play left tackle like he has his entire career at Northwestern. I could see another team trading up here as well as the Patriots are always open to moving back. 

15 – New York Jets (GB): Tennessee OT Darnell Wright

I think the Jets would be a little fortunate if the board played out this way and one of the top tackles was still available at No. 15. Tackle is the team’s biggest need and they have to make sure they have quality protection in front of new QB Aaron Rodgers. Wright would slot in immediately on the right side and has been a big riser in the process. The former five-star recruit finally put it all together in 2022. If the top tackles are off the board, Jets GM Joe Douglas could try to trade down with the hopes of picking up more picks and then reinforcing the defensive line, where the Jets still have a bit of a weakness at defensive tackle. 

16 – Washington Commanders: Maryland CB Deonte Banks

Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr. has been one of the most popular names to mock at this slot given Washington’s need for a cornerback. Sometimes there’s something to that, more often than not it’s not that easy. I think Banks is a lot cleaner and stands out in the second tier of cornerbacks. There are just fewer holes to pick in his game and it helps he’s a local prospect. 

17 – Tennessee Titans (PIT): Iowa DE Lukas Van Ness

New Titans GM Ran Carthon comes over from San Francisco and like all new GMs is a bit of a wildcard. However, the 49ers have had one of the more defined draft philosophies over the past several years, just absolutely spamming defensive line in the first round year after year. With needs all over the roster, that’s as good a place to start as any. Van Ness has outstanding size and measurables. He could easily be long gone by this pick but the rush for quarterbacks and tackles pushes him down here. The Titans signed Arden Key and have Harold Landry but the latter is coming off a torn ACL and Key signed only a mid-range deal. 

18 – Philadelphia Eagles (DET): Georgia OLB Nolan Smith

I think the Eagles would love to find long-term options at edge rusher, defensive tackle and cornerback. The options on the interior are somewhat underwhelming and the class is deep at corner, plus whoever they picked would be fourth on the depth chart. It doesn’t change the need but it lessens the urgency. Smith is a player I think the Eagles would have had in their cloud to take 10th overall, so it’s a coup for him to slide this far. An outstanding athlete with limited college production at Georgia, plenty of evaluators have compared Smith to Eagles DE Hasson Reddick. So there’s a blueprint already for Philadelphia to fit Smith into. 

19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Clemson DE Myles Murphy

Tampa Bay feels like a wildcard, as they’re entering a clear reset year based on the roster but have also indicated they will try to remain competitive. I’d lean toward them taking more of a long-term view of their needs as opposed to short-term, which could make edge rusher more of a priority. Shaquil Barrett is coming off a torn Achilles and depending on how that goes might not be on the team in 2024 when he’s set to turn 32. Former first-rounder Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has just eight sacks over his first two seasons. 

20 – Seattle Seahawks: Utah TE Dalton Kincaid

This spot sets up well for the Seahawks to take the best player available or even trade back. If a team in the late 20s wants to get ahead of a potential run on wide receivers, this pick is the sweet spot. Seattle is frequently mocked a receiver here and there are some interesting names still on the board. But what if they added pass-catching help, just in a different form? Kincaid is an outstanding receiving threat, particularly after the catch, and the Seahawks have a whole lot of ordinary players at tight end. He’d give the team more formational diversity and the ability to dictate matchups with personnel. I also think if a team moves up here, there’s a good chance it’s for Kincaid. 

21 – Los Angeles Chargers: Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer

Receiver is a big need for the Chargers. They could also look ahead at positions like edge rusher or defensive back. Tight end is as big a need as receiver, however, and potentially one that might be prioritized more with what new OC Kellen Moore wants to do. Mayer is just an all-around good player who should play for a long time. Maybe he doesn’t have the upside of some other options but he feels incredibly unlikely to be a bust. 

22 – Baltimore Ravens: Boston College WR Zay Flowers

I don’t think the signing of veteran WR Odell Beckham Jr. on a one-year deal, as much as Baltimore gave him, closes the door on the team taking a receiver in the first round. I think the Ravens would love to trade back but if another team is coming up, the odds are it’s for a receiver and that it’s another AFC contender like Buffalo or Kansas City. So the player the Ravens pass on could be biting them in the tail for a while. There’s been some connections between Baltimore and Flowers going back to the Shrine Bowl. I think the Ravens love his attitude and playmaking ability, and they clearly want to surround QB Lamar Jackson with more playmakers. 

23 – Minnesota Vikings: USC WR Jordan Addison

Due respect to veteran WR KJ Osborn, who’s a rousing success as a former Day 3 pick, but wide receiver is a sneaky need for the Vikings now that veteran WR Adam Thielen is gone. Addison is a bit of a polarizing player due to how small he is and his final year at USC wasn’t as massive as people might have expected. But if you go back to his Pitt tape, you see a tremendous route runner and a terrific playmaker. He could fit right in as a slot receiver and could thrive with WR Justin Jefferson drawing so much attention away. 

24 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Iowa State DE Will McDonald IV

I had this pick in my last mock and I just can’t shake it, though I think the Jaguars will be tempted by a few other players. It just seems clear they want to add an edge rusher. One of the traits Jaguars GM Trent Baalke places a high value on is length, especially when it comes to front seven players as he believes it makes an impact when battling blocks. Although McDonald only measured in at 6-4 and 240 pounds, he has some of the longest arms of any edge rusher in this class at 34 7/8. He was miscast as a five-technique at Iowa State playing inline instead of on the edge where his athleticism could be maximized more. That makes him more of a traits-based projection for NFL evaluators but Baalke showed last year with No. 1 pick Travon Walker that he’s comfortable doing that. 

25 – New York Giants: Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.

The Giants have done a ton of work on this receiver class but I think at this point all their top options would be off the board. The top two tight ends are gone, too, and there have been some reports they could pivot to tight end if receivers aren’t an option. Cornerback is a need too, and Porter Jr. has gotten a lot of hype as one of the best second-tier options. He’s physical and athletic and would be a fit for how much man coverage the Giants want to play on defense. 

26 – Dallas Cowboys: Florida G O’Cyrus Torrence

The Cowboys have a hole at left guard right now with no real apparent options on the roster. Torrence is a massive, mauling monster of a blocker who would fit right at home for a Cowboys team that has made it clear they want to run the ball and overpower teams. 

27 – Buffalo Bills: Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey

One name that’s gotten a lot of first-round buzz this week is Kancey. The comparisons to Rams DT Aaron Donald are unavoidable since they’re both undersized defensive tackles from the same school. That’s not fair to Kancey but he does bring a lot of pass-rushing juice. The Bills don’t have any defensive tackles under contract past this season and they’re big on rotating players up front, which could help maximize some of Kancey’s strengths and minimize his limitations. Buffalo is a team I’m watching to trade up for a receiver but given the team’s cap situation, draft picks are valuable and GM Brandon Beane could remain disciplined. 

28 – Cincinnati Bengals: Mississippi State CB Emmanuel Forbes

The Bengals love taking cornerbacks in the first round and while they don’t have a huge immediate need at the position, it doesn’t hurt to look ahead a little. Forbes has impressive production with 14 career interceptions and six of them returned for touchdowns in the SEC no less. That eases some concerns about his rail-thin 166-pound frame but he still needs to add size and strength for the NFL. Cincinnati could ease Forbes in as a rookie as he gets stronger and learns DC Lou Anarumo‘s complex system. 

29 – New Orleans Saints (SF, via MIA & DEN): Clemson DT Bryan Bresee

Defensive tackle is a huge need for the Saints. Bresee entered this past season as a highly-regarded prospect but he had a rough year with injuries and family issues. His younger sister passed away after a fight with cancer in September. However, he’s got great size and athleticism. He can hold the point of attack but he has the potential to be more disruptive. 

30 – Philadelphia Eagles: Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs

This is the Hendon Hooker spot in a lot of mocks, as the Eagles are notoriously trade-happy and this is the sweet spot to secure the fifth-year option. But I just still can’t completely get behind the Hooker first-round buzz, as we see the media inflate quarterback stocks every year. So I’m going to go against the grain, project the Eagles to keep the pick and even go one step further and give the team their first first-round running back in decades. 

There’s been a lot of smoke connecting the Eagles to Robinson in the top ten, which is out of whack with the positional value Philadelphia has for the position. But later in the first round, the grades start to blur together. And Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer had an interesting anecdote about how Philadelphia was ready to take RB Christian McCaffrey had he slipped to the 14th pick because they valued his receiving ability so much. If there’s a similar player in this class, it’s Gibbs, who will have more value as a receiving back than he will as a pure rusher. 

31 – Kansas City Chiefs: Michigan DT Mazi Smith

Kansas City is one of the few teams that’s been connected to a potential trade up the board, and it seems like they have their eyes on a weapon like a receiver or even Gibbs. However, they need help on the defensive line too. Smith is an outstanding athlete with limited college production but there’s some game-wrecking potential next to Chiefs DT Chris Jones if he can put it together. 

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