The NFL trumpets parity as one of the biggest reasons it has one of the most compelling entertainment products in the world, and for good reason. On average, there is about 50 percent turnover from year to year in playoff teams.

In fact, it’s been seven out of 14 exactly in the past two years after the NFL expanded the playoff field. Last year, the Giants, Vikings, Seahawks, Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers and Jaguars all crashed the party, knocking out the Packers, Rams, Cardinals, Titans, Patriots, Raiders and Steelers. 

What’s neat about a historical trend like that is it provides a clean baseline for the future. We don’t know which of last year’s playoff teams will fail to repeat in 2023, but we know the odds are high about half of them won’t and can work backward from there. 

2022 NFL Playoffs
Seed	AFC	NFC
1	Chiefs	Eagles
2	Bills	49ers
3	Bengals	Vikings
4	Jaguars	Buccaneers
5	Chargers	Cowboys
6	Ravens	Giants
7	Dolphins	Seahawks

 

We’ll split this up by conference, where we have opposite problems. It’s pretty easy to poke holes in a few different NFC teams and imagine worlds where they’re sitting at home come next January. The catch is you have to fish candidates to replace them out of a sea of mediocrity. In the AFC, it feels like a crime to leave any of last year’s squads out of a 2023 playoff projection, let alone three. 

AFC 

Out: Bills/Dolphins 

Okay, so I’m already breaking the rules a little. I don’t think both the Bills and Dolphins will miss the playoffs (though it’s possible) and that leaves just two teams dropping out when history says it will be three or four. Injuries will play a large role in which teams end up disappointing, but those are capricious and random. Until injuries thin the herd, all seven of last year’s AFC playoff squads have to feel outstanding about where they are heading into the 2023 season. 

Predicting injuries is just a guessing game, but in the case of the Dolphins the injury bug has already struck. Top offseason acquisition CB Jalen Ramsey went down with a knee injury and needed a full meniscus repair. He might be back by December but that’s still a big loss for most of the season. Before that injury, I was really excited about Miami’s defense with Ramsey and CB Xavien Howard on either side of each other under new DC Vic Fangio. The Dolphins still have a lot of talent on defense but cornerback becomes a bit of a question mark — and it’s not a good position to have questions at. 

There are a few other Dolphins players with prominent injury concerns as well. The headliner is QB Tua Tagovailoa coming off of multiple concussions that marred a 2022 breakout season. But LT Terron Armstead has a lengthy injury history, too, as does OLB Bradley Chubb and basically Miami’s entire running back group. Even if Tagovailoa stays healthy, there’s some pressure on him and HC Mike McDaniel to stay ahead of the curve on offense, as defenses looked like they were starting to adjust after the Dolphins’ initial onslaught. 

Yet despite all of that, the Dolphins still could be a legitimate threat to unseat the Bills in the AFC East if the defense takes a huge step forward under Fangio and the offense remains healthy and dangerous under McDaniel. The Bills have to fend off the Jets and new QB Aaron Rodgers, too. In fact, their position at the top of the AFC is looking more and more tenuous after this offseason. 

It feels sacrilegious to discuss the idea of the Bills missing the playoffs. But the more I think about it, the more it feels like a legitimate possibility. It all starts with the fierce competition in the AFC. Look at this list of quarterbacks: 

• Patrick Mahomes
• Joe Burrow
• Josh Allen
• Aaron Rodgers
• Justin Herbert
• Lamar Jackson 
• Trevor Lawrence
• Russell Wilson
• Deshaun Watson

There’s a lot of star power on that list. Two of them — at least — will miss the playoffs. And that’s not factoring in the Dolphins who ran pretty much this same gauntlet to make the playoffs last year. Or the Patriots and Steelers who don’t have a quarterback that belongs in this conversation but remain perennial playoff threats under Hall of Fame coaches. 

Buffalo’s been one of the top teams in the AFC for a few years now of course and have one of the two or three best quarterbacks in the league. Last year, though, the Bills stagnated instead of breaking through, losing to the Bengals in the divisional round in a game that wasn’t all that close. This offseason, it feels like the rest of the teams in the AFC have gained ground while the Bills have at best stayed still, limited financially from contracts they’ve already handed out. 

The biggest loss was DC Leslie Frazier who stepped away from the team and will be replaced by HC Sean McDermott who will add defensive play-calling to his duties. It still doesn’t feel like people are talking enough about how big of a loss Frazier is. While he was in charge, the Bills finished in the top two for either scoring defense or total defense in four of the past five seasons. That’s really hard to do. 

McDermott cut his teeth as a defensive coordinator but it’s been a while and it’s different when you’re balancing head coaching duties as well. Buffalo has some personnel issues to figure out on that side of the ball, too. There’s a huge void at middle linebacker with Tremaine Edmunds gone and relatively anonymous players vying to replace him. Star DE Von Miller is recovering from a torn ACL and seems likely to miss at least six games. Both starting safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are 32, and Hyde missed nearly the whole 2022 season with a neck injury. 

If the defense ends up taking a step back, that puts even more pressure on Allen and the offense when one of the biggest critiques of the Bills last season was that they became one-dimensional. The wins and gaudy numbers were still there on offense but the inconsistent part of Allen’s game reared its head again as he was asked to carry a huge load as not just the quarterback but the most dangerous rushing threat on the team. Can second-year RB James Cook or first-round TE Dalton Kincaid help take some of that pressure off? It’s second-year OC Ken Dorsey’s job to make that happen, otherwise the pressure on him will rise. 

The bottom line is that the Bills remain a very good team and when the dust settles could still be one of the best in the NFL. The gap between them and the rest of the AFC has just narrowed. If they don’t win the AFC East, they get pushed into a crush of teams fighting for three wildcard spots. At that point, they’re just a couple bad breaks from missing the postseason entirely. 

Out: Chargers

There are a lot of reasons for optimism in Los Angeles. The Chargers have a star quarterback in Justin Herbert, plenty of weapons around him, a solid offensive line and a compelling new offensive play-caller in OC Kellen Moore who could help maximize a unit that’s already been successful the past two seasons. Herbert has a huge arm but at times it’s felt like the system has kept the training wheels on. With Moore in town, it feels like there’s real breakout potential. 

If you took a poll about the biggest question facing the Chargers, it’d likely be HC Brandon Staley and the defense. Staley got the job because of his defensive acumen, piloting the Rams to the No. 1 ranking on that side of the ball in his lone year as a coordinator. The Chargers defense has stayed mired in the 20s in the two years since Staley took over. You could say he was installing his system in Year 1, and injuries certainly played a factor in Year 2 not seeing that breakout success. He’s out of excuses for Year 3, however. Oh, and there’s the little matter of the Chargers holding a 27-0 lead and still losing to the Jaguars in last season’s wildcard round. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a defensive head coach. 

To his credit, Staley has back-to-back winning seasons in his first two years in charge. But at this point, the Chargers have been a decisive second fiddle to the Chiefs in the AFC West, which means they’re battling in the mosh pit for a wildcard berth. The margins become slimmer there, as evidenced by Staley’s first season where the Chargers went 9-8 and missed the playoffs thanks to a Week 18 overtime loss to the Raiders. 

If you asked me, yes or no, if the Chargers would make the playoffs in 2023, I would lean toward yes. Top to bottom, there’s a lot to like about the roster. This is a different exercise, though. If you’re handicapping the chances of the seven 2022 playoff teams repeating in 2023, Los Angeles ranks closer to the bottom than it does to the top. 

In: Browns

As previously discussed, there’s a long list of teams pushing for a spot in the postseason in the AFC in 2023. The Jets, Patriots, Browns, Steelers and Broncos will be in the mix and even the Titans won’t roll over in the AFC South. The Jets have been getting a lot of the hype following the trade for Rodgers and I don’t see that slowing down anytime soon. For reasons I’ve outlined in a different post, I’m a little skeptical of the Jets delivering on the high expectations in 2023. 

I’m more intrigued by the Browns who in comparison are flying way under the radar. Some of that has to do with their history as an organization. Cleveland has been a morose football city for so long that there’s natural skepticism, even among their fans. But the Browns could end up checking a lot of boxes that we see in successful teams. They have the potential for high-end quarterback play. Their offensive line is one of the better units in football and there’s legitimate firepower at the skill positions. On defense, they have a guy in DE Myles Garrett who is a defensive player of the year-level talent, and they spent this offseason building around him so he wouldn’t be the only one carrying the load. 

There are reasonable questions keeping some folks from buying completely in on the Browns. Though QB Deshaun Watson at one point was one of the brightest stars playing the game’s most important position, it’s been years since we’ve seen him play at that level. He sat out the entire 2021 season partially due to a dispute with the Texans and partially due to charges of sexual misconduct from more than two dozen women. He was suspended 11 games in 2022 as a result of those cases, most of which he’s settled. In the six games of action Watson saw, he looked like a player who hadn’t played in nearly two years.

It feels unlikely that Watson just forgot how to play at a high level but it’s understandable that people want to see it before getting on the Browns bandwagon, if his off-the-field issues haven’t driven them away completely. From an on-field perspective, if the Browns get the 2019 or 2020 version of Watson, they could be really good on offense. 

On the other side of the ball, the Browns hired Jim Schwartz as their new defensive coordinator after a few years of the whole not equaling the sum of the parts. They beefed up the defensive line with DE Za’Darius Smith, DT Dalvin Tomlinson and DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, which should prevent offenses from double-teaming Garrett so much. Improvement from the defensive line would also help things come together on the back end. Even if the Browns aren’t a top-ten defense, being in the top half of the league would be enough for a playoff berth if the offense and Watson reach their potential in 2023. 

In: Broncos

The Broncos’ 2022 struggles have been well chronicled at this point. Adding HC Sean Payton and his track record of success was a huge coup for the organization, even if it doesn’t pay off with a playoff berth to end the team’s seven-year drought in 2023. Not many people are picking the Broncos to make the playoffs but I’m a little more bullish on their chances compared to consensus. 

It all starts with Payton. He arrives in Denver with a .631 winning percentage from his time in New Orleans and a dynamite track record on offense. In 15 years with the Saints, his offense finished inside the top ten in yards 13 times and inside the top five 10 times. In scoring, the Saints were top 10 in 12 of Payton’s 15 seasons. The only year in which a Payton-led offense has not finished in the top ten of either yards or scoring was in 2021 when he went through Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian at starting quarterback. 

As bad as Broncos QB Russell Wilson played in 2022, the future Hall of Famer should still be a few notches above that group. Denver made sure to get an expensive insurance policy by signing backup QB Jarrett Stidham to a two-year, $10 million deal in free agency, but so far in camp Payton has been complimentary of Wilson. His offense should be a much better fit for Wilson’s skill set than former HC Nathaniel Hackett, and Payton has much more credibility to overrule Wilson if something isn’t working. Wilson also seems to understand he has a lot to prove this year. 

I actually have more questions about the Broncos defense than I do the offense heading into the 2023 season as they transition to DC Vance Joseph’s system. It’s safe to say Joseph will put much more of an emphasis on blitzing and man coverage than the Broncos’ past couple of defensive coaches. That could maximize the strengths of players like CB Patrick Surtain II more and hide any pass-rushing deficiencies from trading OLB Bradley Chubb but it’s also fair to expect some growing pains. Joseph has had some mixed results in his career as a defensive coordinator. 

NFC

Out: Vikings, Giants, Buccaneers

In comparison to the AFC, it was not hard to find three teams poised to take a step backward in the NFC. Minnesota, New York and Tampa Bay were relatively easy picks, especially compared to squads like the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys who are loaded with talent. To sum up the case against those three:

• The Buccaneers downgraded from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask at quarterback
• The Vikings won an unsustainable number of close games and are due for a regression
• The Giants were supposed to be a year away from being a year away when they were a surprise playoff team and are still retooling the roster

But all three also merit a more in-depth look. 

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay doesn’t have a lot of people on the bandwagon this season, as they usually feature among the bottom-five teams in power rankings, way too early mock drafts, betting lines or whatever measure of team strength you want to use this time of year. This is despite the fact that the roster features guys like WR Mike Evans, LT Tristan Wirfs, LB Lavonte David, DT Vita Vea, WR Chris Godwin, C Ryan Jensen, CBs Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean, S Antoine Winfield Jr. and OLB Shaquil Barrett. Nearly all of those players were key contributors when the Bucs won the Super Bowl just a few years ago. 

That was also mostly the core of last season’s underwhelming 8-9 squad that backed its way into the playoffs even with Brady under center. Perhaps that explains why there’s not more optimism surrounding the Bucs in 2023, even setting aside the obvious downgrade from Brady to Mayfield/Trask. 

Tampa Bay did make one other significant change, firing former OC Byron Leftwich and replacing him with Seahawks QB coach Dave Canales in a not-so-subtle effort to try and recreate some of the magic Seattle found last year with a reinvigorated former top QB pick. If Canales can get Mayfield back to his 2018 or 2020 version, the team might have something. Mayfield hasn’t looked like that player in a long time, however, and the early camp reports out of Tampa Bay aren’t promising. 

Bad quarterback play is usually enough to sink a season. The combination of bad QB play and bad coaching usually equals a high draft pick. We’ve now seen Bucs HC Todd Bowles in the top role for five seasons with two different teams. He has a 32-49 record. Even if his tenure with the Jets was hurt by that organization’s dysfunction, getting a year with Brady and the core of a Super Bowl team and only mustering an 8-9 record is pretty damning. Bowles is a terrific defensive coordinator, with four top-ten finishes in scoring defense in five years with that title between Arizona and Tampa Bay. But in the five years he’s been a head coach, Bowles’ defenses have just one top-ten finish in scoring defense. 

Vikings

The point about the Vikings being lucky in close games has been beat to death, but it’s a good one so I’m going to belabor it a little more. Research shows close games, defined as a margin of seven points or less, tend to be a 50-50 proposition for teams over time. That makes sense, right? Random bounces, variance and luck all have a much bigger impact on the outcome when the score is close. Zoom out over a larger time period, and the results tend to average out. 

That’s why a team like the Vikings which had a 9-0 record in close games last year is so easy to flag for regression. The law of averages says the Vikings probably should have won only half of those. Minnesota was 13-4 and nothing can take away those wins, but its minus-3 point differential is highly unusual for a 13-win team, less so for an eight-win team which they easily could have been had a few things gone differently. 

I’m not just trying to pick on the 2022 Vikings here. Minnesota was on the positive end of regression this past season after finishing with an 8-9 record, minus-1 point differential and a 4-7 record in close games in 2021. The Vikings were criticized for not tearing down the whole team and instead choosing to rebuild on the fly, bringing back the majority of the 2021 team in 2022. These numbers reflect that Minnesota basically had the same team in 2021 and 2022, one squad was just unlucky and the other lucky. 

So what does that mean for 2023? The Vikings kept up their strategy of trying to phase out older veterans with new additions to maintain their competitive level. In broad strokes, that means you could say the roster is probably about the same. On offense, they let go of WR Adam Thielen and RB Dalvin Cook, who will be replaced by RB Alexander Mattison and first-round WR Jordan Addison. Apart from that, the personnel is essentially the same. On defense, there’s a big scheme change with new DC Brian Flores, and some of the personnel has been overhauled. They might be better than last year but it feels rational to expect some growing pains. 

That’s why the close game record is important. The Vikings might be bringing back a lot of key contributors from last year’s team that went 13-4. But if the true quality of that team was closer to 8-9, expecting the Vikings to repeat last year’s success is setting them up for failure. Something in the neighborhood of eight wins feels more realistic. Anything is possible with how weak the NFC is, but in most seasons you need a lot of outside help to make the playoffs at 8-9. 

Giants

Like in Minnesota, there are signs last year was fool’s gold for the Giants too. New York was 5-3-1 in close games and had a point differential of minus-6. They were swept by the Cowboys and Eagles, going 0-5 against them including the playoffs. The fact the Giants were 9-7-1 and made the postseason at all was a huge win considering how HC Brian Daboll’s squad was viewed entering his first season.

The best thing the team has going for it right now is Daboll. Last year’s squad looked like a 6-11 outfit at the start of the season and Daboll MacGyvered his way into a playoff berth. It’s easy to get swept up in the possibilities for the Giants of what he could do with better players. The team continued its rebuild this offseason with a number of notable additions, including TE Darren Waller, LB Bobby Okereke, WR Parris Campbell and DT A’Shawn Robinson. The draft haul included first-round CB Deonte Banks, second-round C John Michael Schmitz and third-round WR Jalin Hyatt, the first two of whom should be Day 1 starters. From a talent perspective, the Giants definitely got better this offseason. 

The question is if it’s enough. The Giants were willing to give QB Daniel Jones a huge, $40 million per year extension, but in some ways the jury is still out on him. New York’s passing game wasn’t exactly dangerous last year. Jones had one of the lowest depths of target of any quarterback and threw just 15 touchdowns. The Giants won because Jones avoided turnovers, rushed for over 700 yards and seven touchdowns and was disciplined at taking the easy completions Daboll schemed up. That’s how they had to play because the surrounding talent on offense was a major weakness. If the Giants open it up with better weapons and protection, like they want to do, can Jones hold up his end of the bargain? 

You can see the ways in which the roster is starting to come together, but it still feels like the Giants are a year away at a few position groups. The depth in the secondary is thin, which is a problem for how much man coverage DC Don Martindale likes to play. The front seven is in solid shape but linebacker probably still qualifies as a question mark. If Waller can’t stay healthy, which has been the trend the past few years, the Giants’ receiving corps will look an awful lot like it did last season, and the offensive line is still a work in progress. They could still compete for a wildcard spot but if they catch a few bad breaks instead of good ones, they could be sitting at home watching this year. 

In: Lions

Aside from the Jets, there might not be another offseason darling getting as much hype as the Lions. Last year, the Lions were the only team not to get any prime slots when the schedule was announced, and their lone appearance was the Week 18 win against the Packers that was flexed to Sunday night. This year, Detroit was picked to open the season in the Thursday night showcase game against the defending champion Chiefs, plus was slotted for three more primetime games. The NFL schedule makers are definitely buying into the Fightin’ Dan Campbell’s. 

Offseason hype counts for zilch when the games start being played, though. The Lions still have their share of doubters but I believe this team has what it takes to follow through and win the NFC North (they’re currently the betting favorites despite going 9-8 and missing the playoffs in 2021). Campbell is a big part of that. So far he and the players seem to be focusing on all of the right things in training camp. You can tell that it’s been a point of emphasis for the team not to read their own press clippings.

I’ve also been impressed with the job Campbell has done overall in his first two seasons despite a lot of challenges as they rebuilt the roster. As a former player, he clearly has the ear of his team in a positive way. He’s not nearly as much of a meathead as he wants people to think, either, as he’s shown a solid grasp of things like fourth down decision-making and had the guts to make a bold switch away from former OC Anthony Lynn in his first season. That resulted in discovering OC Ben Johnson, who was one of last season’s breakout coaching stars after calling plays for a top-five offense. Keeping him in the fold was also a major coup for the Lions. 

I have more questions about the coaching on the defensive side of the ball but there’s no question DC Aaron Glenn has a lot more talent to work with than he’s had in his first two years. Detroit put a lot of effort into retooling that side of the ball after giving up the most yards of any team in football in 2022. The secondary was a big point of emphasis. The Lions signed CB Cameron Sutton, S C.J. Gardner-Johnson and CB Emmanuel Moseley, drafted S Brian Branch in the second round and will get S Tracy Walker back after an Achilles injury ended his 2022 season. Moseley is coming off a torn ACL and is a bit of a question mark, but that group should be a lot better. If some front-seven players like DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, DE James Houston and first-round LB Jack Campbell take a step forward, the Lions could be solid on that side of the ball. 

Continuity is the name of the game over on the offensive side of the ball, with Johnson coming back, QB Jared Goff coming off of a career season, a star receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, and an offensive line that could be one of the best in football if the starting five can stay healthy for the first time in two seasons. Those are the biggest reasons to expect success for the Lions on offense again but they didn’t just sit tight. Given the injuries on the offensive line, signing OL Graham Glasgow was an under-the-radar major move to give the team quality depth. They revamped the running back room, allowing Jamaal Williams to leave in free agency and trading D’Andre Swift and replacing them with former Bears RB David Montgomery and first-round RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Those two should have the same thunder and lightning dynamic but Montgomery is a more dynamic player than Williams and Gibbs has shown some special flashes as a dual-threat player so far in camp. 

It’d be fair to say the Lions are a little thin at receiver aside from St. Brown, as 2022 first-round WR Jameson Williams will serve a six-game suspension and is a complete wildcard. Veterans Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond will be called on for major roles even once Williams returns, and Detroit will be putting a lot on the plate of Gibbs and second-round TE Sam LaPorta to be impact players right away. But they overcame it last season and should have plenty in the tank to finish as a top-ten offense again. Combined with the hopeful improvement from the defense, and it’s easy to see why the Lions are favorites in the NFC North. 

In: Panthers

As outlined above, the Bucs have a lot going against them when it comes to winning the NFC South again. Last year, it sometimes felt like no one wanted to win this division and it’s possible it feels similar in 2023 with the Saints, Falcons and Panthers all bunched pretty tightly together. The Saints are the betting favorites in most places and the Falcons have gotten some love as an under-the-radar team from some prominent national analysts. 

But give me the Panthers. Even as a rookie, it’s possible Panthers QB Bryce Young is the best quarterback in the NFC South in 2023. I’d take him pretty easily ahead of Falcons QB Desmond Ridder or whoever the Bucs trot out, and he could pass Saints QB Derek Carr during the season. Right now, Carr is probably the best quarterback in the division. But Carr has shown himself to be incredibly sensitive to changes in his supporting cast over the years. In years with a lot of change, like a new coach or play-caller, Carr often taken a whole year to truly get comfortable in his new environment, which blunts any edge the Saints might have with his experience or their admittedly solid supporting cast. 

Young’s mental command of the playbook has already wowed coaches and he’s had very few rookie moments during camp so far. My feeling is Carolina’s skill talent is going to be a much bigger impediment to the team’s success than anything Young does this season. There’s no clear matchup-beater in the group including WR Adam Thielen, RB Miles Sanders, WR DJ Chark, TE Hayden Hurst and second-round WR Jonathan Mingo. But there’s also no one to key in on, which suits Young’s strengths as a distributor. 

Carolina probably has the best head coach in the division, too. New HC Frank Reich is the only one of the four to have a winning record and he has more playoff appearances (two) than the other three combined. 

Name	Record	%	Years
Frank Reich	40-33-1	0.547	5
Arthur Smith	14-20	0.412	2
Todd Bowles	34-50	0.405	6*
Dennis Allen	15-38	0.283	4

*Bowles was 2-1 as the interim head coach of the Dolphins in 2011. 

Smith has only coached two seasons and we’re still figuring out who he is as an NFL coach. He has an opportunity to make a big statement this year for sure, but until then Reich is comfortably ahead. In his five years with the Colts, he called a top-ten scoring offense three times. Once with Andrew Luck at quarterback, once with Philip Rivers and once with Carson Wentz. The rest of Carolina’s coaching staff is loaded, too, with DC Ejiro Evero, OC Thomas Brown, assistant HC/RB coach Duce Staley and QB coach Josh McCown. All of those guys have had head coaching interviews in the past and probably will again in the future. 

Evero might be first in line and arrives in Carolina after coaching the Broncos to a top-ten finish in total defense in 2022. He’s got plenty to work with on the defensive side of the ball in Carolina, with OLB Brian Burns, CB Jaycee Horn, DT Derrick Brown, S Jeremy Chinn, LB Shaq Thompson, LB Frankie Luvu and S Vonn Bell. The team also just added OLB Justin Houston to address their biggest hole at the edge rushing spot across from Burns. Evero has all the pieces for another top-ten unit in 2023. 

Ultimately, whoever wins the NFC South is probably going to have nine wins, whether it’s the Saints, Falcons or Panthers. I think Carolina clearly belongs in the discussion with those teams and could have an edge in some important areas like quarterback and coaching as long as the defense keeps them in the mix. 

In: Commanders

There aren’t many teams in the NFC who don’t have a shot at landing the last wildcard spot as we sit and look at things today. It’s a one-team list right now: the Arizona Cardinals. The Buccaneers are close but you can’t entirely dismiss the idea of them winning the weakened NFC South. If the Rams lose one of their Big Three to injury, they’re headed for a top pick, but if they stay healthy that’s too much talent to dismiss. The Bears were atrocious in 2022 but what happens if QB Justin Fields has the same kind of leap we’ve seen recently from players like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts? 

The Bears actually have far better betting odds than Washington, probably because of the Fields factor and the fact they play in a weaker division. Most books have the Commanders in the neighborhood of the sixth or seventh longest odds to make the postseason out of all 32 teams. On one hand, that pessimism is understandable. Washington is starting former fifth-round QB Sam Howell, who has just one start to his name, in a make-or-break fourth season for HC Ron Rivera as new ownership takes over with a trigger finger that’s surely itching for change. More people probably expect the Commanders to be starting from scratch next January rather than gameplanning for a wildcard game. 

On the other hand, Washington went 8-8-1 last season and was in the mix for a wildcard spot even with Taylor Heinicke taking the majority of the reps at quarterback. This isn’t a team devoid of pieces. There is a lot of skill position talent with WR Terry McLaurin, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Jahan Dotson, RB Antonio Gibson and a couple of others. The Chiefs hired OC Eric Bieniemy away from the Chiefs, and he’ll get the chance to run his own show with a lot to prove out from under Andy Reid’s shadow. 

On defense, the obvious strength is the defensive line with DTs Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne and DEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young, the latter of whom is entering a big prove-it season after his option was declined. Washington had a stingy secondary last year too and added first-round CB Emmanuel Forbes to a group that includes CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl and CB Benjamin St-Juste. The Commanders were third in the NFL in total defense and No. 7 in scoring defense last year, and they could be in that same range if not better if things break the right way. 

Quarterback has been the big question mark the past few seasons and will be again in 2022. What’s interesting though is that Washington doesn’t necessarily have to be “right” about Howell to make the playoffs. Sure it would help and they’d love to have a starting-caliber quarterback on a fifth-round contract. But they also went out and signed veteran QB Jacoby Brissett coming off a solid year as a game manager for the Browns. All the Commanders need is someone who can distribute the ball to its playmakers and not turn it over, which is what Brissett did in 2022. If Howell isn’t ready or gets hurt — and given how he likes to use his legs, that second outcome should not be dismissed — the team has Brissett ready and waiting in the wings. 

There are other points of concern for Washington. The offensive line isn’t in great shape and looks like an area Bieniemy may have to scheme around at times in 2023. Commanders DC Jack Del Rio has come under fire at certain points over the past three years, though the end results in 2020 and 2022 were quite strong. The schedule is also a lot tougher. Washington had the AFC South and NFC North last year. This year they’ll match up against the NFC West and AFC East. 

That matters because if the team goes on a slide, there’s a potential for things to snowball as the pressure builds up. Players aren’t immune to the outside noise and know what the stakes are for the Rivera regime. If Washington doesn’t make the playoffs, big changes are likely in store. A postseason berth could forestall those for a little while, though.