NFL Trade Deadline: Top Players To Watch

Week 4 is in the books and the NFL has turned the page to October — and the looming trade deadline at the end of the month. No teams are punting on their season after four games or booking tickets to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl yet, but four games is equal to a quarter-season of data points. We have a pretty good idea of who’s good and who’s not, and we can connect the dots from there. 

Last year was the splashiest trade deadline of all time, with multiple deals for notable players involving significant draft compensation. A total of 10 deals were made on the day of the deadline itself, which was a record. Even a month out, I can say the odds are this year will not live up to that. Logistically speaking, trades aren’t as easy as last year made them look. 

Still, there are some names and situations to keep an eye on that have the potential to give us some trade fireworks this month: 

Two Receivers From The Rebuilding Raiders

Star WR Davante Adams has been one of the few bright spots for a 1-3 Las Vegas team, averaging nearly 100 yards per game with three touchdowns, but it hasn’t led to many wins. Once again, the Raiders look like they’re headed for a potential top-ten pick as the multi-year rebuild under HC Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler carries on. After spending most of his career on a successful team in Green Bay, Adams’ frustration with losing has been apparent. 

“It’s not my mentality to sit here and try to take all season and figure it out,” Adams said via Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “You use these early games like this to establish an identity. We’re not doing things the right way to establish a winning culture. . . . We’ve got to go out there and do it. That’s the theme of this year — doing it. Not just talking about it and figuring out what we need to do. We did all that last year. This year we gotta be about it.”

Adams hasn’t requested a trade yet, and the Raiders have turned down potential windows to move on from him that would have left them less on the hook than they are now. Still, it’s hard to think a contending team wouldn’t at least check in about Adams. At 32, the veteran wideout is unlikely to factor into the team’s long-term plans, and he’s playing well enough that I could see a team being willing to give up as much as a second-round pick. On the surface, an Adams trade seems to make a lot of sense. 

It’s just not an option it seems like the Raiders are considering in any way, however. Let’s back up and recap. Las Vegas traded for Adams last year and signed him to a new record contract as a part of a high-profile series of moves designed to help them compete right away for the AFC West in McDaniels and Ziegler’s first year. But the season didn’t go as planned, and the messaging from the team pretty quickly pivoted to the new regime needing multiple years to rebuild the franchise. They released QB Derek Carr and traded away TE Darren Waller while turning over much of the defense. 

Had they traded Adams too, they would have avoided paying a significant roster bonus and likely have had a much more robust trade market. There was never any indication that the Raiders explored a deal, however. For as much as McDaniels and Ziegler have talked about a multi-year process, a number of their moves seem to have been made with short-term considerations in mind. It feels as if they hoped to underpromise and over-deliver, holding onto Adams hoping he’d help the Raiders be surprisingly competitive and engender some goodwill with the fanbase and locker room while providing results they could point to as a way to help everyone buy into the new culture they’re trying to establish. 

It hasn’t worked but there remains little sign the Raiders are re-evaluating keeping Adams. There are some other obstacles to a deal as well. Adams is due only around $7 million this year which is a manageable number for another team to take on, but he’s still due nearly $17 million fully guaranteed in 2024. Combined with surrendering a likely premium draft pick for an aging wideout, some teams will be priced out. Several other contending teams are also already in decent shape at receiver, unless an injury creates a major need. Even if the Raiders change their minds about trading Adams, there will be some things to sort through. 

A far more likely trade candidate is fellow WR Hunter Renfrow. There was a lot of optimism surrounding Renfrow when McDaniels arrived in 2022 because of the coach’s history of success with other players who had similar skills. Las Vegas was confident enough in Renfrow to sign him to a two-year, $33 million extension before he’d ever played for McDaniels.

It turns out Renfrow was one of a number of players who just haven’t been a “fit” under the new coach. He had his worst year as a pro in 2022 with only 36 catches for 330 yards and two scores in 10 games. He’s on pace to do even worse in 2023, with five catches in four games. 

The coaching staff is asked about Renfrow every week and every week they say they need to get him more involved. But their actions are sending a message, loud and clear, that he’s not a priority for this offense right now. Renfrow has played less than 45 percent of the snaps, as he’s a clear third receiver behind Adams and Jakobi Meyers. The Raiders are also leaning on two tight end sets with Austin Hooper and second-rounder Michael Mayer, both of whom are playing more than Renfrow. His seven targets are fifth on the team and behind RB Ameer Abdullah, who’s played 40 snaps to Renfrow’s 109. 

A team looking for a reliable slot receiver probably could get Renfrow for a Day 3 pick. He’s due $6.5 million in base salary this year, which is manageable, and has no guarantees on his contract which has one more year on it in 2024. Unlike Adams, Renfrow isn’t a major part of the offense and there have been rumblings that the Raiders have been more active in considering trading him. This is a deal the rebuilding Raiders absolutely should and could make. 

Broncos Firesale? 

Denver calmed the frenzy around its slow start to the season somewhat by winning a battle of the winless against the Bears in Week 4. The Broncos needed a 21-point second-half comeback to beat one of the most morose franchises in football, however, which does not spark a lot of confidence about them going forward. There are clearly problems that run deep and it’s going to take HC Sean Payton some time to put his stamp on things and get the results he wants. 

Tanking is not in Payton’s DNA, but it would not be shocking at all to see him ship out players who he has determined aren’t a culture fit and won’t be a part of the team in 2024 and beyond. Looking ahead to next offseason, the Broncos have work to do to get under the salary cap and are playing with a short hand of draft picks still due to trades for Payton and QB Russell Wilson. If there’s interest in players who probably won’t be with the team in 2024, it makes sense for the Broncos to move on a little early and pocket some extra picks. 

The two biggest names are WRs Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, particularly since they were the subject of quite a bit of trade speculation during the offseason. Denver elected to hold onto both as no team met their asking price, but it’s possible either a team is more willing to pay up now or the Broncos are more willing to do a deal. 

Jeudy is still on his rookie contract and would probably be the more appealing of the two but Denver would need more for him than Sutton. The Broncos already exercised Jeudy’s fifth-year option for just shy of $13 million guaranteed in 2024, so they’ve already committed more to him than some other players. The 24-year-old missed the first week with a hamstring injury and has been working his way back into the offense, though he’s still the second-leading receiver. 

It’s been a mixed bag for Sutton. On one hand, he’s far and away the highest target earner on the Broncos offense with 28, turning those into 20 catches for 216 yards and three touchdowns. But the first four games have been mistake-riddled from him, with drops and two fumbles in one game. In 2024 he has a looming $17 million cap hit, with a potential $9.675 million in savings if he’s released. His spot on the roster next year should not be assumed. 

The challenge for the Broncos in getting a pick for Sutton is his $14 million 2023 salary. That’s a complete non-starter for a lot of teams. In order to get a pick that’s halfway decent, the Broncos will probably need to eat some of that sum. If they eat nearly all of it and Sutton has more good plays than bad over the next few weeks, something like a fourth-round pick could be the return. 

Teams will likely inquire about CB Patrick Surtain II but it’s hard to see the Broncos trading him unless they’re purely blown away by an offer with multiple first-round picks. The other big name to know is S Justin Simmons, who when healthy is one of the NFL’s stars at the position. His absence right now is playing a major role in Denver’s struggles on defense, as the Broncos are down to third options and an aging Kareem Jackson.

But he’s another player with a sizable 2024 cap hit, $18.25 million, and he’ll turn 31 next November. His salary would be a roadblock as he’s also due more than $14 million this year. In terms of players who would interest other teams, however, Simmons has to be mentioned, as he would start for just about every other team in the league. 

Looking ahead to 2024, Broncos OLB Randy Gregory and DT D.J. Jones are potential cap casualties with about $10 million each in potential savings if cut. Considering the Broncos’ struggles on defense even with them in the lineup, if there are any takers for their salary it makes sense for Denver to explore trade possibilities. 

Another interesting possibility to consider is LT Garett Bolles. He’s 31 and has a $20 million cap hit in 2024, $16 million of which would be saved if he’s released. But unlike a few other players here, Bolles is actually playing relatively well. Pro Football Focus has him graded as their No. 17 overall tackle through four games. He plays a premium position that is usually in short supply at the NFL level, so there could be interest despite his age and salary. 

The catch is trading a starting left tackle midseason without a clear replacement on the roster might be too close to tanking for Payton to stomach. But it’s worth considering depending on what the Broncos’ future vision for Bolles is. Players who are released do not count toward the compensatory pick formula, so this could be Denver’s only chance to get picks back for Bolles or a few other players who have been mentioned. 

Will the Panthers panic? 

With the loss to the Vikings, Carolina is now one of just two winless teams at 0-4. The offense has been dismal and the defense has ultimately cracked under the pressure of being solely responsible for keeping the team in ball games. The Lions and Dolphins are up next before a bye, so barring a major upset the Panthers are going to be 0-6 going into the week before the trade deadline. 

Right now though there’s been more buzz about the Panthers adding at the deadline rather than trading pieces away. Maybe that changes with more losses. It does seem like the team realizes they need more around first-round QB Bryce Young, who has not hit the ground running like a lot of people — probably including the Carolina decision-makers — thought he would. Wide receiver specifically has been a problem point with a group that so far has been unable to credibly threaten down the field. 

The best way to fix the receiving corps might be to take more of a long view, as it’s a hard position to reliably fix via trades or free agency. That will require draft picks, however, and the Panthers are short on those after the trade to get Young, among some other deals. This roster has a lot of needs, more needs than picks. 

You probably know where I’m going with this. Just like last year at the trade deadline, I would expect the Panthers to get some inquiries about star OLB Brian Burns. It might not be the huge offer they turned down last year of two future firsts and a second from the Rams, but there should still be significant interest in their top pass rusher, particularly after the two sides were unable to come to an agreement on a contract extension this summer. 

Right now I’m still doubtful the Panthers pull the trigger, unless another huge offer is out there. Otherwise trading Burns would create a massive need at edge rusher and basically be robbing Peter to pay Paul (creating a need at edge rusher to maybe fill a need at receiver). Trading Burns would also be a signal from the front office that they’re still rebuilding with little end in sight three years after GM Scott Fitterer was hired, though frankly that’s the reality whether or not they trade Burns. 

I don’t think the team would be nearly as reluctant to trade S Jeremy Chinn, even if they’d get far less than they would for Burns. A former second-round pick in a contract year who has been much closer to what the Cardinals thought they were getting with Isaiah Simmons in the top ten that same year, Chinn was above 90 percent of the snaps in each of his first three seasons, whether he was a safety or a linebacker or a nickel defender. Under new DC Ejiro Evero, Chinn’s snaps have fallen to 61 percent. 

That’s not an insignificant role but it’s definitely a lot smaller than the previous three years. Chinn is a sub-package player as a big nickel defender, playing the vast majority of his snaps either in the slot or in the box. The Panthers have elected to take him off the field for a pure slot cornerback at times and he’s taken just one snap aligned deep at safety, per PFF. 

Overall he’s been solid when he’s been on the field, but the situation with Chinn is yet another example of why hybrid defenders can be challenging for defensive coordinators to maximize. It’s not clear what the team’s vision for him in the defense going forward is, which is notable since he’s in the last year of his deal. Chinn’s athleticism and past success could make him a compelling target for another team, and for a Panthers team that needs picks, it makes sense to think about trading Chinn if he’s not going to be an essential piece. 

Receiver-needy teams looking to Hollywood?

For the Panthers or any other team exploring the trade market for wide receiver help, one interesting possibility to consider is Cardinals WR Marquise Brown. Arizona has been a lot better than expected this year but are still just 1-3 and clearly in a rebuilding phase. Brown has been better than expected, too, with 21 catches, 239 yards and two scores through four games, living up to his big-play “Hollywood” nickname. 

However, he’s in the final year of his contract, playing out the fifth-year option that was exercised after the previous regime acquired him via trade from the Ravens. It says something that new GM Monti Ossenfort and HC Jonathan Gannon kept him instead of trading him this offseason, but it’s still not clear exactly how he fits into their future plans. Does he fit OC Drew Petzing’s ideal for the position? Are the Cardinals willing to pay him what he’ll be seeking if his strong play continues knowing that the receiver market has taken off in the past few years? Does it make sense to use the franchise tag? 

So far Ossenfort has shown a clear interest in amassing as much future draft capital as possible, so it makes sense for other teams to check in to see what might tempt him to deal away Brown. The former first-rounder has only one thousand-yard season under his belt but he’s still just 26 and has blazing speed — a commodity the NFL highly values. Trading a Day 2 pick for Brown and signing him to an extension wouldn’t be without risk but based on Brown’s resume to this point, an argument can be built that he’s worth it. 

Of course, the Cardinals might view Brown as a key contributor going forward and someone they plan to keep. In that case, another option teams could look at is former second-round WR Rondale Moore, who has seen his role reduced under the new coaching staff. Arizona traded its first two picks of the 2020 class this summer and cut a third, leaving just one member of that draft class on the roster. Moore was drafted in 2021, and that class seems to have a little more leash for evaluation but it’s clear the allegiance isn’t the same from the new regime. Moore is third on the team in WR snaps behind third-round WR Michael Wilson, though the gap between them is tight. 

Moore is still only 23 and has flashed an interesting skillset when he’s been able to stay on the field. The catch has been staying on the field, as he’s missed time in each of his first two seasons due to injury. At 5-7 and 180 pounds, Moore is a slot-only player who can take some schemed touches as a running back but isn’t sturdy enough to hold up there in a full-time role. A team looking to inject some speed and creativity into its offense could find him intriguing. He still has one more year on his rookie contract left in 2024. 

Two veteran pass rushers in contract years

Teams looking to add juice at the trade deadline are often looking for help rushing the passer. Not only is it one of the most important phases of the game, but it’s also far easier to integrate newcomers into the gameplan midstream than other positions. With that in mind, there are two veteran edge rushers on expiring contracts who could be attractive trade candidates for other teams. 

The first and best option is Vikings OLB Danielle Hunter. Minnesota and Hunter were in a contract standoff this offseason that resulted in the team fielding trade calls for the 28-year-old sack artist. Ultimately they worked out a one-year deal that gave Hunter a raise and preserved his ability to hit free agency after the season. 

So far, Hunter is putting himself in a great position to cash in one way or another this offseason. He has five sacks in four games and also leads the NFL with eight tackles for loss. Minnesota’s defense has been terrible as they adjust to a new system under DC Brian Flores but Hunter has been a definite bright spot. 

The Vikings beat the Panthers to stave off an 0-4 start to the season, but at 1-3 their playoff hopes are not looking great. There’s a good opportunity for wins against the Bears and Packers but the Chiefs and 49ers will be tough to beat, leaving the team in the neighborhood of 3-5 at the deadline, or worse. That’s the recipe for a team to be open to selling off pieces but the Vikings don’t tend to operate like that as an organization. 

A more compelling argument might be that Hunter’s long-term future with the team is in doubt, and trading him at the deadline beats trying to squeeze out a compensatory pick via the formula. The Vikings have a lot of competing priorities for new deals moving forward, including potentially QB Kirk Cousins and WR Justin Jefferson. Extending Hunter when he’s 29 to the kind of deal he’s surely looking for might not be a check the Vikings can or want to write. 

The catch is Hunter has a $10 million base salary this year that is not easy for another team to take on, though not impossible. Being in a contract year also lessens his value somewhat, as an acquiring team has no guarantees Hunter will be more than a rental. A third-round pick, even for someone as talented as Hunter who’s playing well, might be the best-case scenario. That’s still better than a comp pick for Minnesota, if they decide it’s worth hurting whatever slim playoff hopes they still have left. Based on past history it’s more likely the Vikings prioritize contending for the playoffs over what might be better long-term but you never know. 

A more attainable option for teams in need of pass-rushing help might be Jets DE Carl Lawson. The Jets are also obviously struggling at 1-3, and while a lot of teams in that position might be looking to sell ahead of the trade deadline, there is a lot riding on this season for a lot of people in the building. Jets HC Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas can’t really afford to bottom out. 

However, right now the Jets would not be giving up that much by choosing to trade Lawson. A former prized free agent signing. Lawson’s career in New York has never gotten off the ground due to an Achilles injury in his first training camp. He missed the entire 2021 season and was hampered in 2022 as well after a rehab setback, though he ended up playing all 17 games and recording seven sacks. 

This year, he is a rotational player in a deep Jets edge rushing group after missing a chunk of camp with a back injury. Lawson has played less than 25 percent of the snaps and has yet to record a sack. He’s working behind Jermaine Johnson, John Franklin-Myers, Bryce Huff and Micheal Clemons. Trading Lawson would mean more snaps for first-round DE Will McDonald, who flashed as a pass rusher during the preseason but isn’t ready for an early-down role yet. 

An acquiring team would be taking a risk with Lawson and gambling that he’s healthy. It wouldn’t necessarily be a cheap gamble either with Lawson’s $6 million 2023 base salary, even if a team would just be on the hook for a prorated amount based on how many games are left when acquiring him. However, Lawson has flashed enough upside in the past to make it a potentially worthwhile gamble.

Most teams would be holding onto a player with his past resume and hoping he improves, but the Jets have the luxury of depth at defensive end. They’re likely not giving up on much by trading Lawson in his contract year and could get a pick back to help them address their issues in the future. 

A familiar name

We can’t talk about big names potentially on the move ahead of the trade deadline without talking about the Colts and RB Jonathan Taylor. As of right now when publishing this article, Taylor was set to come off the PUP list and return to practice for Indianapolis this week, potentially putting his dispute with the team over his contract and trade request in the rearview window.

That almost seems too simple, and we’ll see if there ends up being more drama in this situation. Taylor does have to play at some point to avoid his contract from tolling but he only needs six games for that. It’d make sense if he tried to put more pressure on the team ahead of the trade deadline. The Colts could also make a small adjustment to his contract to help mend fences and get him back in the fold. 

One way or another, however, an actual trade seems less likely than it did before the season. There’s been zero chatter about interest from the Packers or Dolphins, the two teams that were most interested in Taylor before Week 1. Green Bay arguably could still use Taylor while Miami’s backfield seems to be in great shape. Neither team seems to be motivated to meet the Colts’ asking price, however. 

While there have been major running back injuries of the season-ending variety in Cleveland and Baltimore, neither team has seriously broached the subject of a trade with the Colts. Instead, they’ve turned to their depth on the roster or signed other veterans off the street. Looking around the league, it’s hard to find a team with a big enough need to give up a second-round pick and more. A sneaky option could be the Rams but they seem to be doing okay with former fourth-round RB Kyren Williams for the moment. 

This remains a fluid situation and things could change, but for the moment a Taylor trade seems like an iffy bet based on what we know now. 

No chance, despite rumors & speculation to the contrary

There are some big names who have been floated as trade possibilities in the early goings of this season where the actual chances of them being dealt are virtually nonexistent. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins and Titans QB Ryan Tannehill have been mentioned as potential trade targets for the Jets given their issues at quarterback this season. At this point, we can confidently say the only way those deals will happen is if Jets fans fire up their copy of Madden and force it through. 

Cousins has persistently been mentioned by the talking heads, especially those who are open about their Jets fandom, but there is just no way that deal happens. Teams don’t trade starting quarterbacks midseason without real alternatives behind them, regardless of how they’ve started the season. It’s also an incredibly hard position to step into midstream and have success. The Jets asking Cousins to be an upgrade for them at quarterback would be like asking someone who’s spent years teaching Mandarin to suddenly lead a graduate course in Russian. 

Beyond that, Cousins has a no-trade clause. There would be zero benefit for him to agree to a deal to uproot him from a system and team he feels comfortable with, or to pack up and move away from his family suddenly in the middle of the season. Even if the Vikings keep losing and the Jets have a better team on paper, his chances of success in 2023 will always be higher in Minnesota. 

A lot of the same challenges would be present for the Jets if they traded for Tannehill, although he does not have a no-trade clause and there are more connections with former OC Todd Downing and OL coach Keith Carter both on the Jets’ current offensive staff. At the very least, Tannehill is a more realistic trade target for the Jets than Cousins. 

It still won’t happen for a number of reasons. Tannehill’s salary would be an obstacle for the Jets to take on and Tennessee would likely ask for a first-round pick, even if conditional, to even consider trading Tannehill knowing New York is coming from a place of desperation. But even though Tannehill has struggled at times this season and there are two young quarterbacks behind him who the Titans have spent Day 2 picks on the past two seasons, it’s hard to see HC Mike Vrabel signing off on a deal when the Titans are firmly in the mix to win the AFC South through four games. 

Bottom line; trading for a quarterback upgrade midseason only makes sense if you’re playing Madden. 

The other big name that could get floated in the coming weeks is Bengals WR Tee Higgins. Unlike Tannehill and Cousins, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that he should be on the block. Cincinnati was unable to sign him to a new deal this offseason and has to think about fitting what will be an enormous deal for him under their cap along with the contract for QB Joe Burrow and eventually WR Ja’Marr Chase. It’s not a stretch to say the three of them could be making $100 million in average annual salary. 

There are legitimate questions about whether the Bengals can afford to keep Higgins long-term, and this is the final year of his contract. With Cincinnati off to a 1-3 start and looking like a long shot for the playoffs, it does make some sense to try and trade Higgins for a haul rather than sort through a potentially complicated tag-and-trade scenario, or worst-case letting him walk for nothing except a comp pick. 

But that’s not how the Bengals operate. Cincinnati has one of the smallest front offices in the league and a distinct way of doing things under owner Mike Brown. There are clear tendencies you can bank on when it comes to the Bengals. They do not make midseason trades, either to bring in players or ship them out barring some kind of relational breakdown like with DE Carlos Dunlap a couple of years ago. There will be zero consideration in that building of moving Higgins before the deadline. 

The Bengals will scratch and claw for what they can for the rest of the season before tagging Higgins this offseason. Despite reports that he’s not in their long-term plans, I would not be surprised to see them try to figure something out to keep the talented trio together of him, Burrow and Chase for as long as possible. There will be trade speculation when Higgins is tagged and that does have the potential to turn into a messy situation but if I had to bet right now, I would lean toward it being more likely the two sides play out 2024 together than any trade is done in the next 12 months.