NFLTR Review: Grades & More From The Best NFL Trade Deadline Ever

For once, the NFL trade deadline provided plenty of news. In this issue:

• Who made the shrewdest deals? Who got taken advantage of?
• Why most of these deals were just as much about 2023 as they were this season
• What about the deals that weren’t made?

2022 NFL Trade Deadline Recap

For years and years, the NFL trade deadline has generally been a snoozefest, with just a couple of deals basically trading a nickel for five pennies in the days leading up to the event. This week was different. It would not be a stretch to say the league just saw its best trade deadline ever. A record 10 deals were executed on deadline day, involving five Day 1 or Day 2 picks and a handful of big-name players. And that doesn’t even include Monday’s blockbuster deal between the Bears and Ravens for LB Roquan Smith. 

We’ve seen the NFL gradually become more trade-happy in recent years with a younger generation of NFL decision-makers more willing to play fast and loose with draft picks. The Rams of course infamously just won a Super Bowl despite trading all of their first-round picks between 2017 and 2024. It’s quite possible seeing the success Los Angeles had after trading a bevy of high draft choices for players like QB Matthew Stafford and OLB Von Miller who were instrumental to their success might have removed even more inhibitions to trading. The NFL is a copycat league after all. 

Funny enough, the Rams didn’t make any moves this week despite a bevy of needs — though it doesn’t appear it was from a lack of trying. No other team is trying to copy their formula exactly either, but there were undoubtedly some aggressive moves made, with teams on the other side who appear more willing than before to give away players they might have held onto in previous seasons. 

There’s a lot to get to, so we’ll dive into all 11 of the trades made this week to try and explain what each team was thinking, how it will impact the rest of the 2022 season and beyond, and of course, a letter grade. 

Ravens trade their 2023 2nd and 5th and LB A.J. Klein to the Bears for LB Roquan Smith

(Bears also ate the rest of Smith’s contract in 2022, aside from the minimum $575,000 or so which will hit the Ravens’ books)

Bears

Reasoning: At face value, Smith seems like he would be one of the defensive cornerstones for the Bears to build around in the coming seasons given he’s just 25 and has been one of the NFL’s more productive linebackers the past few seasons. However, the two sides hit an impasse in contract talks this offseason and it led to a nasty situation with Smith requesting a trade and trying to force the Bears to let him go. 

They didn’t relent at the time but the episode made it clear to Bears GM Ryan Poles that he would be headed for a thorny situation if he tried to franchise tag Smith this offseason, who doesn’t have an agent and has been representing himself. He didn’t want to meet Smith’s asking price, which is likely north of $20 million a year to reset the market for off-ball linebackers. There are good points to be made on both sides of that debate. From a statistical standpoint, Smith is comparable to Colts LB Shaquille Leonard and 49ers LB Fred Warner, the last two players to reset the market. The cap has also increased since Leonard and Warner signed their deals. 

However, there’s also room to question whether that kind of investment in an off-ball linebacker is worthwhile. Teams like to reserve premium investments on defense for positions that impact the quarterback and thus have the most impact on the game. That usually means pass rushers or cover corners. Off-ball linebackers can have a dramatic impact on the game but those players are rare. While the former top-ten pick out of Georgia is a good player, it’s debatable if he’s that kind of elite player. It’s worth noting Bears HC Matt Eberflus spent a lot of time in Indianapolis with Leonard, so if he thought Smith was that good, things would have played out differently. 

If the Bears had kept Smith and used the tag on him this offseason, the odds are good he would have refused to sign it and triggered a holdout situation. Players who don’t sign the tag can’t be fined because they’re not under contract, and Smith wouldn’t have started to lose money unless he skipped games. Having that situation drag out would have been far from ideal for the Bears, and it also would have hurt their leverage to find a trade partner had they waited until the offseason. 

If they declined to tag Smith, Chicago could have been in line for a potential compensatory pick. That would have been a third-rounder if Smith found a team willing to meet his asking price, and probably no worse than a fourth. However, the odds are good the Bears would have canceled it out given how active they’re expected to be in free agency next offseason. They could have more than $100 million in space per Over The Cap.

A second and fifth is far better than losing Smith for nothing, and once the Bears decided they weren’t going to meet the linebacker’s asking price, this became the best resolution to the situation by far. 

Impact: In the short term, this makes the Bears worse. How much worse probably depends on what Klein has left in the tank at this point in his career. But Chicago was already having some struggles on defense even with Smith on board. The rest of the season becomes about evaluating their young players and figuring out who can be a part of a team in 2023 that the Bears hope is much more competitive. 

For the future, linebacker becomes a much bigger need. The Bears have their first, Baltimore’s second, their third, their fourth and Philadelphia’s fourth, and you have to think they’ll look hard at using one on a linebacker. The free agent class will have some interesting names, but I’d pay extra attention to Anthony Walker, Bobby Okereke and E.J. Speed as players who have a history with the coaching staff. 

Grade: A

The Bears were proactive and got ahead of the situation with Smith, and this is an excellent return given the position he plays. There will be some short-term pain but in the long run this was the right call, and the Bears are positioned to come out ahead if they use the pick well. 

Ravens

Reasoning: Baltimore has had a long history of excellent inside linebacker play that has slipped in recent seasons. They replaced Ray Lewis with C.J. Mosley, then after losing Mosley in free agency they double dipped in 2020 with Patrick Queen in the first round and Malik Harrison in the third. Neither has met expectations yet, though Queen has shown flashes that make it even more frustrating that he hasn’t put it all together. 

As made clear by the trade, the Ravens think very highly of Smith. They also place a higher value than other teams on off-ball linebackers, which made Smith even more compelling as a potential long-term piece to their defense. That side of the ball has let them down in a few games this season, and while the team could certainly use help at wide receiver too, Baltimore likely weighed the impact a wideout would have for a run-heavy offense versus what a linebacker of Smith’s caliber could do for their defense and came down on the side of improving the defense. 

What makes this tricky is the financial aspect. Smith was playing out the fifth-year option and will be a free agent this offseason. Because the Ravens have to reserve the tag to keep QB Lamar Jackson from reaching free agency, they can’t stop Smith from hitting the open market and seeing what offers are out there. In addition to the trade compensation, that hands Smith a massive amount of leverage in negotiations and presents a real risk that the Ravens traded a second-round pick and more for eight games of Smith. 

There’s a segment of football analysts, particularly in the analytics community, who think this is actually Baltimore’s plan. They can shore up their biggest weakness on defense, then recoup a third-round compensatory pick when Smith walks in March. No team plays the comp pick game like the Ravens, and they likely won’t be able to be active in free agency in 2023 like the Bears. That would still mean a drop of 50 slots or so from the late second round to the end of the third, but that’s more palatable than losing the second straight up. 

I don’t think the Ravens made this trade planning not to extend Smith, however. It’s too much to give up for a rental, and I believe the team genuinely loves the player and person as a potential foundational piece on the defense. If things go wrong, either with the rest of the season or in contract talks, the third-round comp pick provides a layer of insurance. I think Plan A is to extend Smith, even if the price goes over $20 million a year. 

Impact: The Ravens have an extra day to get Smith ramped up and ready to play the Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 9. Following that, they have a bye week, so Smith should be relatively well-acclimated to his new team and equipped to be an impact defender for them down the stretch. He’s a big upgrade over Josh Bynes and Harrison and should also take pressure off of Queen, who remains a starter. Smith’s strengths in coverage and as a blitzer should also be put to good use in Baltimore’s system, and there’s a real chance he takes a step forward as a player. 

Down the road, if the Ravens extend Smith I would expect them to decline Queen’s fifth-year option, which is due this coming May, making 2023 a contract year for the former first-rounder out of LSU. 

Grade: B

The Ravens took a risk with this deal, and it’s possible things could backfire. Smith might struggle to acclimate or not make the kind of impact Baltimore expected, in which case giving up the second-round pick will sting. Or things could go well enough for Smith to sign a mega-deal with the Ravens, only for it to age poorly as he fails to take the next step to become an elite linebacker. 

But the Ravens have blunted the potential downside by leaving themselves an out with the comp formula, and there’s some real upside for Smith as a long-term piece to what they hope is a championship-caliber defense. 

Vikings trade their 2023 2nd and 2024 3rd to the Lions for TE T.J. Hockenson, a 2023 4th and a conditional 2024 4th

(Conditions: the fourth becomes a fifth if the Vikings win a playoff game this year)

Vikings

Reasoning: New Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah arrived with a reputation as being one of the most analytics-focused and forward-thinking general managers in football, and he certainly has not been afraid to buck convention by trading within the division. This is the third major trade he’s executed with another NFC North team. Divisional trades aren’t unheard of, but there’s a reason teams tend to avoid them. Because the NFL awards automatic playoff berths to division winners and schedules six of the 17 games against division foes, it’s often more important and easier to focus on beating the rest of your division than competing against the rest of the conference or the entire NFL. Teams won’t do anything to help their division rivals if they can help it. 

Adofo-Mensah evidently believes these deals will help the Vikings more than they will other teams. And in this particular deal, there’s a good chance he’s right. Minnesota had an iffy situation at tight end even with Irv Smith Jr. when he was healthy, and the depth behind him now that he’s hurt was abysmal. Hockenson should shore that up right away. 

There’s some upside too. Hockenson is under contract through 2023 and has shown flashes of being an impact tight end — like an eight-catch, 179-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Seahawks earlier this season. He still has room to improve but there are not many tight ends capable of putting up numbers like that. The Vikings also didn’t actually lose any picks in the deal, moving down to the fourth round in 2023 and 2024. 

Impact: Hockenson gives the Vikings a legitimate third target behind WRs Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, perhaps even a No. 2 target down the road to replace Thielen. He’s a big upgrade over Smith, who is on IR with a high ankle sprain and might have played his final snap as a Viking. He’s set to be a free agent in 2023. 

Minnesota obviously hopes Hockenson plays well enough to extend him at some point but they have a lot of time to assess things. In addition to the fifth-year option, which will be $9.329 million fully guaranteed, the Vikings should be able to tag Hockenson in 2024 at a reasonable sum given how the larger tight end market has moved a little more slowly. A great tight end remains one of the biggest bargains in football, even on a second contract, because of how much they’re asked to do. There’s still room to grow for Hockenson as a receiver and a blocker but he has shown excellent ability in both areas and tight end is a position that can take time to develop. 

Grade: A

Although giving up two Day 2 picks is a lot, the Vikings did well to stagger them over the next two seasons and get picks back to maintain some options going forward. Hockenson is relatively cost-controlled for the next couple of seasons and there is a lot of upside if they can use him better than the Lions did. 

Lions

Reasoning: This has been a discouraging season for the Lions, who have the NFL’s worst record at 1-6 in a season that was supposed to be a step forward, even if no one really expected a serious push for the playoffs or anything. Trading Hockenson seems like a step backward, though, because as a first-round pick in 2019 he was supposed to be one of the pieces the team built around to get out of the mess it’s in. 

However, the Lions haven’t really featured Hockenson outside of one game this season, and what this trade makes clear is that Detroit had questions about his place in their plans for the future. He came out of Iowa with a ton of hype which is why he was taken with the No. 8 pick despite Detroit’s issues in the past with first-round tight ends. And while he’s been far from a bust, he also hasn’t been the huge impact player you expect from a top-ten pick, at least so far. PFF has him below 50 in run block grade this season and last. His best year was 723 yards on 67 catches with six touchdowns in 2020, which was good enough for a Pro Bowl berth. But that’s not irreplaceable production either. 

It’s fair to question whether Hockenson’s struggles are due to talent or usage. Like I pointed out above, 179-yard games from a tight end are hard to come by. The Lions decided rather than try to figure things out over the next year and a half with Hockenson, they were better off cashing him in for picks that will in all likelihood help the Lions either trade up to secure their quarterback of the future or continue to build around him. 

Impact: The next men up for the Lions are Brock Wright, an undrafted free agent signed last year, and James Mitchell, a fifth-round rookie coming off a knee injury. In a dream scenario, one or both of those players turn into contributors but realistically they’re just scratch-off tickets. The Lions will need to address tight end in either the draft or free agency next season. 

The trade does give the Lions another pick in the first two rounds of the 2023 draft, which makes four in total. If they stay bad and get the No. 1 pick, they’ll be able to have their pick of what is looking like a much better quarterback class than this past year. If they don’t pick first, they could still have options depending on how the board falls. Regardless, they have the ammo to take a stab at finding a long-term solution this offseason. 

Grade: C

This trade rests on two assertions from the Lions; that Hockenson is not a special tight end worthy of committing to as a franchise building block; and that the greater priority is adding picks to aid in the pursuit of a franchise quarterback. 

I can get on board with the second point, I’m not so sure about the first. If I were Detroit, I’d want to have my cake and eat it too, keeping Hockenson as a weapon for whoever I draft in April with the bevy of picks I’d still have without this trade. The divisional factor makes the stakes even higher, as Hockenson gets two games a year to make them pay for writing him off. 

Bears trade their 2023 2nd to the Steelers for WR Chase Claypool

Bears

Reasoning: The Bears were justifiably hammered for months for their inability to get weapons for QB Justin Fields this offseason. Chicago had limited resources in the first year for Poles and Eberflus but they made a decision to focus those on the defensive side of the ball and skimp on Fields’ supporting cast. The defense is still bad and the offense has struggled mightily, only recently finding its stride in the past couple of weeks with a shift to feature Fields’ athleticism — also something that should have happened earlier. 

So at a minimum, the Bears should get some credit for trying to get a weapon for Fields. Claypool is huge and athletic, with the nickname “Mapletron” due to his Canadian origins and impressive SPARQ score. He can contribute as a blocker, downfield threat and with the ball in his hands as a runner after the catch, or even handoff. He was inconsistent with the Steelers but he’s a big upgrade in Chicago and already their best receiver. 

The Bears paid a premium though. They gave up their own second-round pick instead of the one they got from the Ravens, which could be a difference of a dozen slots or more. That’s steep for a receiver who’s never had a thousand-yard season and has seen his production fall since his rookie year. But it’s turning into a fact of life in the NFL that if you want a receiver, you have to pay a premium. Looking ahead to this offseason, the free agent class is already picked clean and while there are a couple of months of college football to go, the draft class has a lot of questions due to injuries to the top prospects. 

Impact: It could take a little bit of time to get Claypool up to speed in the offense and Chicago doesn’t have a bye to help until Week 14. He’s behind from a chemistry standpoint with Fields and will have to catch up there as well. Claypool’s athleticism should allow the Bears to get the ball in his hands on easy plays to start, however, like screens and handoffs. Deep balls and more timing-based routes should come as the season progresses. Once he gets up and running, his size and athleticism should turn him into a plus version of Allen Lazard. He might not be as good a run blocker but he’s better at everything else. 

Claypool still has another year left on his rookie contract which is part of why the Bears felt comfortable paying Pittsburgh’s steep asking price. He’ll be eligible for a new deal this offseason but it would be a tall task to play well enough to induce the Bears to commit to that so soon. What’s more likely is the team evaluates where things stand during or after the 2023 season. 

As far as the pick, the Bears still are in good shape between remaining draft capital and cap space to fortify the roster and take advantage of the window presented by Fields’ rookie contract. 

Grade: C

It’s true receivers are expensive and the Bears’ options in 2023 are unclear. But this is a major risk to take on a player who has been on a downhill trajectory since his rookie season. It’s not just due to declining quarterback play either. Claypool has a lot of holes in his game and might not ever become a consistent target even as a No. 2 receiver. 

He’s uber-athletic, so the potential will always be tantalizing. But Claypool isn’t a polished route runner. Drops are overrated as a stat because they tend to say more about who gets targeted the most than who is bad at catching the ball. Being good at catching is a big part of playing receiver, though, and Claypool is inconsistent in this area. There are also maturity concerns that contributed to the Steelers’ willingness to trade him. 

If I were the Bears, I would have rather gambled on a rookie I’d have for four years on a cost-controlled deal than send what could be a high second for the boom or bust Claypool who’s due for a new deal in 2023. 

Steelers

Reasoning: Claypool had been floating around in a number of trade rumors the past couple of weeks but the general consensus was that the Steelers were asking too much to get any team to bite. 

Oops. 

Pittsburgh has a long history of cycling through receivers. When Diontae Johnson signed his extension back in training camp, he was just the third Steelers wideout to re-up with the team following the conclusion of their rookie deal since the early 2000s at least. Based on how the first two and a half years of Claypool’s career have gone, it’s unlikely he would have been an exception to the rule. 

While the Steelers probably would have preferred not to trade away one of first-round QB Kenny Pickett’s weapons, they do have a fair amount of talent remaining at receiver and the offensive skill positions. Second-round rookie George Pickens is in line for a much bigger role, and they could lean on TE Pat Freiermuth more as well. He won’t be a factor in 2022, but fourth-round WR Calvin Austin is a sleeper to keep an eye on in 2023 and beyond. 

Trading Claypool would have been an even stronger consideration the closer he got to the end of his rookie deal. The price probably would have gone down too as the time to pay him got closer, so Pittsburgh may have cashed out at a high point. 

Impact: We’ve mentioned the other receivers already, but Pickens especially is set to play a larger role as he brings the size and downfield element Claypool did. He’s been terrific in limited doses and there’s a chance he could really break out with the opportunity, continuing the Steelers’ long tradition of producing quality wideouts. 

This is also a clear sign that first-year GM Omar Khan will be putting his own stamp on how the Steelers operate, as I’m not sure previous GM Kevin Colbert would have been willing to make a big move like this and subtract a starting player, even for a high draft pick. 

Speaking of which, while the 2023 class of wide receivers looks like it might be a bit of a letdown compared to the past few years, I wouldn’t discount Pittsburgh potentially getting an impact player, especially if Chicago’s pick ends up in the top 50 as most expect. They have a number of needs, though, including pass rusher, corner, offensive tackle, defensive line and linebacker. Another second-round pick in addition to their already-scheduled first and second-rounders could really help them knock out that list. 

Grade: A

Sure, in an ideal world teams want all of their draft picks to end up signing long-term deals. But the Steelers got two and a half years of cheap production from Claypool and were able to cash him out for a pick in the same round he was drafted. Considering he was unlikely to be retained past 2023, that’s a win. 

Steelers trade a conditional 2025 6th to the Commanders for CB William Jackson and a conditional 2025 7th

(Conditions: unknown)

Steelers

Reasoning: It’s a little odd for a team to make one move that can be classified as selling (Claypool) and another as buying (Jackson) but the Steelers are one of a plethora of teams that are in that in-between stage. Organizationally they place a high value on competing each year, no matter the circumstances — which is why the Claypool trade came as a surprise. The Jackson deal is more in line with their past actions. 

Pittsburgh has been eyeing Jackson for a while and is a big fan of his skillset, which should in theory be a better match with the Steelers than it was for the Commanders. Cornerback has been a weak spot for the Steelers this season. And in terms of draft pick compensation, Jackson was basically free, though he’s still due $3.1 million this season which is not that cheap. 

Impact: Jackson has been dealing with a back injury, which appears to be real and not part of the whole situation in Washington that led to his departure. He was healthy enough not to go on injured reserve and should be able to play. Back injuries are tricky though. 

If he plays, he gives the Steelers a potential upgrade in the secondary. Jackson has flashed good ability in the past, he’s just never been able to put it together. There’s some downside here, though, as he was benched for performance reasons by the Commanders.

Jackson is also under contract for 2023, so if he puts it together the Steelers will have an interesting decision to make. He’s due $12.75 million and none of it is guaranteed, so it seems likely he’ll be cut. If he plays well, he might be able to stick around on a reworked contract. 

Grade: C

The draft compensation is so minor it’s hardly worth factoring in. $3.1 million isn’t a lot either but it is for this time of year, and all to maybe get slightly better at cornerback on a 2-6 team? I know the Steelers liked Jackson but I don’t see the point of this move unless they’re hoping it turns into another Joe Haden situation. 

Commanders

Reasoning: Had Pittsburgh not stepped up with an offer, Washington likely would have released Jackson and crossed its fingers that another team claimed his salary on waivers. They were clearly done with Jackson, who was a major free-agent signing in 2021 but was benched earlier this season. 

The line has been Jackson was a man cover corner and wasn’t a fit with Washington’s scheme. It’s a little more complicated than that. Every team plays more zone defense than man, and Washington is actually in the upper tier in terms of percentage of man coverage, just slightly behind Pittsburgh. The poor fit part was true, however, and the parting of ways was mutual. 

Impact: The big plus for the Commanders is saving the rest of Jackson’s salary this year, which was guaranteed. The impact on their cap in 2023 is the same as if he’d been released, either now or this offseason. The team’s secondary has been playing better without Jackson, so he won’t be missed on the field. It does go down as a miss for the personnel department, which has a number of them already. 

Grade: B+

Hard to give it too high of a grade because it doesn’t move the needle that much, but it was nice work by Washington finding a taker for Jackson in a trade. 

Dolphins trade a 2023 1st (SF), 2024 4th and RB Chase Edmonds to the Broncos for OLB Bradley Chubb and a 2025 5th

Dolphins

Reasoning: When QB Tua Tagovailoa has been in the lineup, the Dolphins’ offense has been hard to stop so far this season. The other major factor that’s held Miami back is the defense, as they’ve been banged up in the secondary and have not been great at getting to the quarterback. They have 15 sacks, which is 22nd in the league. Their pressure rate of 14.8 percent is 29th, but the Dolphins blitz 28.4 percent of the time which is 11th. 

So it makes sense that the Dolphins emerged as late contenders for Chubb, then won a bidding war for his rights from Denver. The easiest way to boost a good team into a contending team is to improve the pass rush. Just look at the Rams last year. Chubb has 5.5 sacks so far through eight games which is nearly twice as many as anyone else on the Dolphins. He was the best pass rusher available — the Panthers and Jaguars were both holding onto their young studs —  and Miami also sees him as a part of their future. He’s in a contract year but it sounds like a deal could be coming together quickly, one that could net him well over $20 million a year. 

The picks are simply a sweetener for Denver, and it helps for Miami that they did a swap instead of giving up a fifth. Edmonds was probably included for salary reasons. He just signed with the Dolphins in free agency this offseason with high hopes but had been remarkably bad and lost his hold on the starting job. 

Impact: Chubb is a good player and should be an important piece to the defense, but the most important takeaway from this deal should be that after years of working to accumulate first-round draft picks, the Dolphins felt comfortable trading away their lone remaining 2023 first. Why? Those picks were being stockpiled to give Miami flexibility to make a move at quarterback if necessary. But this is a signal Miami is ready to move full steam ahead with Tagovailoa, who looks rejuvenated in new HC Mike McDaniel’s offense and is finally showing off the potential he displayed at Alabama. 

That means the Dolphins can lean even more into building up the supporting cast around Tagovailoa while he’s still on his rookie contract, which is why this was the time to make an aggressive play for someone like Chubb. He’s not as good as Von Miller but he is younger and can be more than a rental. 

He joins a defense that had 2021 first-round OLB Jaelan Phillips, wily veteran Melvin Ingram and the recently paid Emmanuel Ogbah. Phillips has actually been sneaky impressive, as he’s eighth in the league in total pressures per PFF and 13th in pass rush win percentage — both of which rank higher than Chubb. Putting the two of them together should be positive for both, as it will prevent offenses from keying their protection one way or the other. 

Ingram has been solid, and this move should help keep him fresh. It’s fair to say Ogbah hasn’t lived up to his deal but perhaps he benefits from the attention being diverted elsewhere. 

Grade: B

Miami will have given out a first-round pick and, in all likelihood, a deal worth well over $20 million a year for Chubb. By definition, that’s an overpay. I can understand the team’s rationale given their window this season and next with Tagovailoa, but that should be noted. The danger here is treating Chubb like a great pass rusher when he may only be a good one. It’s hard to know definitively given how injuries have impacted his career so far. 

Still, premium positions demand premium prices, and you can look back at the 12 sacks Chubb got his rookie season and make a case there’s still room for him to grow. He’s only 26 and a high-character individual as well, which make it easier to justify the cost. 

Broncos

Reasoning: The question about whether Chubb is a great or merely good pass rusher is worth raising again for the Broncos, because if they felt he was that good they would not have traded him even with their need to replenish their draft capital next year. It’s a different front office with a different philosophy and in a different place as a team, but it’s notable that the Panthers held onto Burns despite being offered significantly more than what Chubb went for. 

That’s not to say the Broncos thought Chubb was bad or even overrated. But GM George Paton looked at the depth the team has now and figured they’d be fine cashing Chubb in for a first-round chip. They paid up for Randy Gregory in free agency, and he’s a plus starter. Inside-to-outside linebacker convert Baron Browning was a revelation before injuring his hip, as he ranks fifth in the league in win percentage per PFF. Second-rounder Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper have shown flashes of being, at least, quality depth. 

Don’t believe the sale job Paton tried to pull that the Broncos would have made this deal if their record was 5-3 instead of 3-5. The team’s unexpected struggles opened the door to considering this deal. Paton showed last year when he traded Miller that he’ll take a pragmatic approach and won’t just hold on to a player on the off chance the team will beat the percentages of turning around their record. He’ll take the long view, and in this case Denver could use the flexibility this offseason of having a first-round pick and some extra cash. 

Impact: The pass rush will probably take a hit in the short term, as both Browning and Gregory are hurt. Cooper and Bonitto will pick up the slack in the meantime, as well as the newly-acquired Jacob Martin, who we’ll get to shortly. Once Gregory and Browning come back, however, it’s reasonable to think the Broncos can get by without Chubb. 

Going forward, the Broncos should be able to take advantage of not having a $20+ million a year extension to budget for re-signing some key pending free agents like DL Dre’Mont Jones or G Dalton Risner, or to be active in free agency to address other needs. The pick belongs to the 49ers and probably will fall in the back third of the round, but it’ll come in handy as well. The Broncos’ roster is a little on the older side, and they’ll have needs at tackle, cornerback and safety to address. It’s also worth noting that if they wanted to throw their hat into the Sean Payton sweepstakes, that pick could come in handy, as New Orleans will probably try to use the coach’s rights to recoup some of the draft capital they’ve traded away. 

Grade: A-

It’s not necessarily ideal to trade away a 26-year-old pass rusher who’s capable of double-digit sacks. But for where the Broncos are, it makes a lot of sense. They have depth on the edge, and Chubb might have been the only avenue to recouping a first-round pick among the many players who were speculated as available leading up to the trade deadline. 

Denver can bank the pick and the cash they would have spent on Chubb and take stock of the roster in the second half of the season. Because of the massive extension they gave QB Russell Wilson, they have to be careful with how they allocate their resources. They can’t get out of that deal for another two years, so figuring out a way to make it work with Wilson will be the main priority. The roster and especially the coaching staff will be evaluated through that lens. 

Dolphins trade a 2023 5th to the 49ers for RB Jeff Wilson

Dolphins

Reasoning: After dealing away Edmonds in the Chubb trade to clear salary, Miami needed more depth at running back behind starting RB Raheem Mostert. Edmonds isn’t a great loss but there’s still a dropoff to backups Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed, and Mostert’s injury history makes having a quality backup a priority. Wilson was a perfect fit given his experience with McDaniel and the offense, and that’s reflected in the pick the Dolphins gave up. 

Impact: Wilson should step in right away without much of a learning curve considering the overlap between him and McDaniel in San Francisco. McDaniel is actually the assistant who worked Wilson out on campus at North Texas when he was coming into the league as an undrafted free agent. He’s a bigger, more powerful back than Mostert and can bring a slightly different element to the offense, including as both a runner and in the receiving game. 

Grade: B-

A fifth-round pick is probably more than any other team would have given up for Wilson but he’s arguably worth that much to the Dolphins given the seamless fit with the player and coaching staff. 

49ers

Reasoning: The 49ers’ backfield was already crowded and the trade for RB Christian McCaffrey dumped even more resources into the position. Last year’s leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell, is set to be healthy soon, and the team just spent a third-round pick on Tyrion Davis-Price. Wilson has been excellent as a fill-in for Mitchell but he was facing a fall down the depth chart. This deal offers him a bigger opportunity and allows the 49ers to turn some of their depth into draft picks after trading four selections for McCaffrey. 

Impact: McCaffrey got more than 80 percent of the snaps in Week 8 while Wilson occasionally spelled him. That role will go to Mitchell who should be back after the bye. If you’re a 49ers fan, PTSD about injuries at running back probably makes you a little nervous about trading away depth at the position. But there are enough former San Francisco backs with experience in the system that even if the worst-case scenario happens, the team should be fine. 

Grade: A-

They turned a former undrafted running back with a lengthy injury history into a decent mid-round pick. Solid work for the 49ers. 

Jaguars trade a conditional 2023 5th and a conditional 2024 4th to the Falcons for WR Calvin Ridley

(Conditions: Buckle in. The 2023 pick becomes a sixth if Ridley is not reinstated by a certain date from his minimum one-year suspension for gambling. The 2024 pick is contingent on him making the team that year. It escalates to a third if he hits certain playing time benchmarks and can max out at a second if Jacksonville extends Ridley)

Jaguars

Reasoning: The Jaguars took a step toward solidifying their receiving corps this year by signing WR Christian Kirk but it’s clear more work needs to be done to surround QB Trevor Lawrence with weapons. The former No. 1 pick has been up and down this year, with some really high-level play mixed with a lot of confounding mistakes. It’s not that different from some other young quarterbacks we’ve seen develop. A big factor in those situations has been a bonafide No. 1 wide receiver, and the Jaguars are betting that Ridley can be that guy. 

Ridley’s suspension for gambling complicates the picture and means Jacksonville can’t take advantage until next season but that also means the asking price was more affordable. The team isn’t competing this year anyway after falling to 2-6. If Ridley were a free agent next offseason, he’d be the No. 1 receiver by a fair margin. 

The Jaguars have also done a reasonable job of protecting themselves with the conditions here. If Ridley isn’t reinstated for whatever reason, all they’re out is a sixth-round pick. If he makes the team and plays what I would hazard a guess is a fair amount of snaps, it goes up to a fifth and a third, which is a reasonable shot to take on someone with Ridley’s talent. If he plays well enough for the Jaguars to extend, he’ll be well worth the second. If he doesn’t, Jacksonville could potentially recoup some of their investment by letting him walk and perhaps qualify for a compensatory pick. There’s not a lot of downside here. 

Impact: Ridley stepped away in the middle of the 2021 season to address his mental health and some injuries he was battling. That was the last time we saw him, as he missed the rest of the season and then got hit with the suspension during the offseason. There’s always a little bit of uncertainty whenever someone is gone that long and returns to the game. 

If Ridley comes back at full strength, the Jaguars are getting a polished route runner who can be a matchup threat against even high-level man coverage. He had 26 touchdowns his first three seasons and had a massive year the last time we saw him for a full season, notching 90 catches and 1,374 yards in 2020. 

It’s worth noting, however, that Ridley had the benefit of Julio Jones drawing coverage and attention away from him that year. 2021 was hard in a lot of ways for him, but his production tailed off sharply when he was the primary threat. There’s a possibility the Jaguars will still be looking for that true No. 1 after next season. 

The contract situation with Ridley is also interesting. 2022 was supposed to be the final year of his deal on the fifth-year option at $11.11 million guaranteed. That tolled to 2023 and will be the Jaguars’ responsibility. Ridley was on the older side as a prospect and will be 28 next year. His age will play into his market for a long-term deal, either from the Jaguars or someone else. 

Grade: A

This is low-risk, potentially high reward for the Jaguars. Ridley’s upside is huge, and the team has protected itself with the conditions attached to the picks. If all goes to plan, they just stole a potential No. 1 receiver to accelerate Lawrence’s development into a franchise-caliber quarterback. 

Falcons

Reasoning: It’s still not clear what exactly happened between the Falcons and Ridley in 2021, the first year under HC Arthur Smith. The coach doesn’t want to get into it and Ridley hasn’t been available to answer questions and won’t be until 2023. What is clear is that things were damaged to the point where Ridley playing in Atlanta again wasn’t an option. Had he not made the stupid move of betting on a Falcons game, he’d have been traded to the Eagles this offseason, likely for a much better package than the Falcons ended up getting. 

Perhaps the Falcons could have waited a little longer and tried to create a bidding war for Ridley this offseason when the demand could have been higher. But they also may have gauged the market and decided they weren’t going to get a better offer than Jacksonville’s, which could turn into a Day 2 pick. 

Impact: Ridley wasn’t a part of the team anymore, so really the only impact is a resolution to a situation that’s been dragging out for a while. The team won’t even get to use the picks from this deal until 2024, so everything about this from Atlanta’s perspective has been a slow burn. 

Grade: C+

It’s not all the Falcons’ fault, as they were dealt a rotten hand with this situation. But this is an uninspiring haul for a player who once was such an important building block. 

Broncos trade a 2024 4th to the Jets for DE Jacob Martin and a 2024 5th

Broncos

Reasoning: Denver needed pass-rush help after trading Chubb, and Martin was available for cheap. He has a decent resume as a rotational pass rusher, with at least three sacks every year of his career. He was also cheap, due just the minimum base salary this year and only $1 million guaranteed in 2023. Denver can save $4 million by releasing him, and if he turns into a useful piece that’s not a prohibitive salary to keep around. 

Impact: Martin should help with the committee approach to replacing Chubb and help keep the pass rush a strength of the defense. The Broncos also didn’t lose a pick in the deal thanks to the swap. 

Grade: B

The veteran has bounced around to a few teams, so there may not be much upside here. It’s a decent move to fortify the Broncos’ depth, however. 

Jets

Reasoning: New York signed Martin to a three-year, $13.5 million deal this offseason, as GM Joe Douglas believes in keeping the trenches on both sides of the ball as well stocked as possible. Martin has flashed as a rotational pass rusher in his first few seasons. He wasn’t having a bad season for the Jets by any means. However, New York has outstanding depth and some young players like Bryce Huff and first-rounder Jermaine Johnson that they wanted to get more reps. For that reason, it made sense to trade Martin just eight games into that deal. 

Impact: Huff has the NFL’s best pass rush win rate in limited snaps, so the Jets are eager to see what he can do with more opportunities. Trading Martin ought to free up more snaps. They didn’t add a pick but moving a fifth into the fourth round is above-average value for this kind of back end of the roster deal. 

Grade: B

Not a huge return but a good job at getting value out of depth at a position of strength. 

Bills trade RB Zack Moss and a conditional 2023 6th to the Colts for RB Nyheim Hines

(Conditions: unknown)

Bills

Reasoning: Buffalo has been trying to get a pass-catching back for months. They checked with the Panthers about McCaffrey in the offseason and again two weeks ago. They had a deal worked out with Commanders RB J.D. McKissic in free agency before Washington lured him back. And they spent a second-round pick on RB James Cook. 

The Bills tend to take things slow with rookies, though. Cook has only 29 total touches in seven games. Adding an immediate impact player makes sense, especially with how wide open the Bills’ Super Bowl window looks. Hines is an excellent receiving back. He’s got great hands, can run routes like a wide receiver and ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash coming out of college. He should be exactly what the team is looking for.

Impact: The price to get Hines was eminently reasonable. Moss had slipped to third on the depth chart and is a much different player. Even if the pick turns into a fifth, that’s a steal if Hines can live up to the big plans the team’s zeal to add a pass-catching back suggests they have. If not, big whoop. It’s a sixth-round pick. Hines’ contract is also a good deal, as he’s due only $4.8 million and $5.5 million the next two seasons. 

In terms of Hines’ impact on the field, he is entering a crowded skill position group. The Bills have WRs Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and fourth-rounder Khalil Shakir, TE Dawson Knox, and Cook and RB Devin Singletary in the backfield. However, Hines brings a unique skillset that no one else on the team really has. Given the clear type the Bills have had with the backs they’ve looked into, it’s logical to think there’s a vision for how to deploy him. 

What that might look like is giving the Bills a counterpunch to how teams are attacking them right now. Two high shells to make offenses move the ball the hard way are all the rage right now, and the Bills were seeing that last year before it become in vogue. They’ve dismantled those well enough this season but Hines gives them another weapon underneath to take advantage of all of the space left by defenses trying to cap Buffalo’s offense. Hines’ speed and route running make him a difficult mismatch against most linebackers, too. It might take some time to ramp up, but in a few weeks it would not be a shock to see Hines have a big role. 

Grade: A

An already potent Bills offense got a playmaker for a late-round pick and a third-string running back. Win. 

Colts

Reasoning: It would make sense for the Colts to sell off pieces considering the state of the team right now, but this trade was about more than that. It appears Hines expressed frustration with his role which had not grown this season despite promises this offseason and asked the team to explore other options. The Colts obliged and found enough of a market to move him. They also cleared his salary from their books, even though it wasn’t much, and there’s a case to be made a player like Hines is a luxury, not a necessity, for a team that’s in flux offensively. 

Impact: Losing a weapon like Hines doesn’t seem like it can be a good thing for a Colts offense that has struggled, partially due to a lack of playmakers. But he also wasn’t a huge piece of what they were doing, which is what led to the trade in the first place. The Colts reportedly told Hines this offseason their goal was to get him six rushes and six targets a game this year. In the six full games he’s played, he’s averaging just over three carries and four receptions a game. 

Odds are against the draft pick the Colts got back ever developing into a quality player, but their scouting department will have the final say on that. Moss has one more year after this on his rookie deal and provides some depth, though it’s debatable if he’s better than former third-stringer Deon Jackson. They’ll compete for the backup role behind Jonathan Taylor. 

Grade: D

The trade request is a mitigating factor but it’s not good to give away talented players, even running backs, basically for free. Hines is a role player but he’s good at what he does and not expensive either. I don’t see how this made the Colts better. 

Falcons trade a conditional 2023 7th to the Chiefs for CB Rashad Fenton

(Conditions: unknown)

Falcons

Reasoning: Atlanta is in surprising playoff contention at 4-4 and first place in the NFC South, and they have the easiest schedule in the NFL the rest of the way. One of the biggest weaknesses on the team right now is in the secondary, as they’ve been exploited for more than 300 passing yards a game so far, last in the NFL. Injuries and personnel deficiencies have been the reason for that, and Fenton gives Atlanta another competent player to try and stem the bleeding in the secondary. 

Impact: Take PFF grades with a grain of salt, but they have Fenton rated 73rd out of 110 qualifying players. That’s 10 spots higher than Falcons CB AJ Terrell, which is eye-popping even if Terrell has struggled this season. Last year, Fenton was PFF’s No. 6 overall cornerback. If he was really that good, the Chiefs wouldn’t have drafted three cornerbacks this April and traded Fenton to free up snaps for them. Even if the truth is somewhere in the middle, it means the Falcons just added a starter who can make them better for dirt cheap. 

Grade: B

The Falcons probably didn’t add a Pro Bowl player but Fenton raises the floor in the secondary, which was their biggest need. 

Chiefs

Reasoning: Fenton is in the final year of his contract and the Chiefs have three rookie cornerbacks — first-rounder Trent McDuffie, fourth-rounder Joshua Williams and seventh-rounder Jaylen Watson — they want to develop. They didn’t get much but it’s better than losing Fenton for nothing. 

Impact: In the Chiefs’ first five games, Fenton played more than 94 percent of the snaps four times and was at 74 percent in the fifth. He hasn’t played the past two weeks, though, and there’s depth to step up behind him. 

Grade: C

I don’t love a team in a championship window trading away cornerback depth. That’s a position you can never have too many good players at. Still, the reasoning makes sense to get more for Fenton than they would have otherwise. 

Bills trade a 2023 7th to the Falcons for S Dean Marlowe

Bills

Reasoning: Injuries have hit the Bills pretty hard at safety with Micah Hyde out for the year and Jordan Poyer banged up. Bills GM Brandon Beane said they looked at 10 players and Marlowe was the top option due to his familiarity in the defense. He spent three years with the Bills from 2018 to 2020 and made seven starts over that time. A backup safety doesn’t seem high priority, but that’s how good the Bills are this year. 

Impact: Marlowe might be able to ramp up pretty quickly given his familiarity with the system, maybe even enough to start this week if Poyer is out. Going forward, he’ll provide veteran depth. 

Grade: B-

Marlowe was worth more to the Bills given the familiarity between the two sides. That makes the value more reasonable here, and it’s hard to fault the Bills for adding a little bit of insurance. If they lose another safety to a serious injury, this insurance policy will have cashed. 

Falcons

Reasoning: Marlowe was a journeyman and primarily a special teamer who wasn’t under contract past this season. Trading him for a draft pick was a slam dunk, as he shouldn’t be difficult to replace. 

Impact: Marlowe did start in Week 8. The Falcons got shredded by Panthers QB P.J. Walker though. Marlowe’s been more important on special teams and the Falcons will probably spend more time figuring out his replacement there than on defense. 

Grade: B+

Again, turning a journeyman safety/special teamer into a draft pick is a deal worth making every time for a team like the Falcons that is still rebuilding, regardless of their current place in the standings. If you think of the pick as trading Marlowe for Fenton, it’s pretty solid too. 

This Week In Football

• For as many trades as happened, there were also some major ripple effects from the deals that didn’t happen. The Packers didn’t acquire a wide receiver, though they reportedly offered a second-round pick to the Steelers as well for WR Chase Claypool. Pittsburgh rightly expected Chicago’d pick to be higher, potentially a lot higher. And Green Bay apparently didn’t add any extra picks to make up the difference. The Packers will roll with what they have on offense and try to figure out a way out of the mess their season has turned into. 
• There was a lot of trade buzz surrounding Texans WR Brandin Cooks ahead of the deadline, with the Cowboys making the hardest charge. Still, talks didn’t get particularly close in the end. Houston’s asking price was high, probably too high. Multiple reports have indicated they wanted a second and a fourth-round pick for Cooks, and were not willing to shoulder any of his $18 million guaranteed base salary in 2023. That’s just not realistic even for a player as solid as Cooks, as he’ll be 30 in 2023. Now Cooks is apparently upset he wasn’t dealt, and Houston has a mess there to clean up. I’m not sure what exactly the Texans’ plan with Cooks was. They didn’t have to give him an extension if they didn’t view him as a long-term piece, and if they view draft picks as more important right now they should have been willing to eat some of the salary to facilitate a deal. 
• A few other things that shook out after the deadline: players like Cowboys DT Trysten Hill and Seahawks CB Sidney Jones who were shopped by their teams unsuccessfully ended up being waived in a last-ditch effort to have another team pick up their salary. It worked with Hill, as the former second-round pick was claimed by the Cardinals and will have a chance to restart his career. Jones cleared waivers but should be able to land with another team in need of secondary help. Despite speculation, the Rams did not cut RB Cam Akers after not finding a taker before the trade deadline, and the two sides seem to have patched things up enough to where Akers has returned to the team. Maybe this is enough of a fresh start to get Akers back on track. The Rams could certainly use all the help they can get now. 
• With the season pushing into the halfway mark, there were more shakeups than just trades. We’re starting to see assistants on struggling teams lose their jobs, which is often a precursor to bigger shakeups down the line. The Lions fired DB coach Aubrey Pleasant, who was interviewing for defensive coordinator jobs this offseason but was in charge of a unit that has been shredded week after week this season. And the Colts let OC Marcus Brady go as HC Frank Reich assumed more responsibility on offense. Reich calls the plays as head coach, so we don’t know what exactly Brady was responsible for. Offensive coordinator is a significant job, and Reich evidently felt a change was needed as the offense has been held to 20 or fewer points in six of eight games this season.
• With all the changes in Indianapolis brought on by failing to meet owner Jim Irsay’s expectations, it’s absolutely fair to wonder what the future holds for Reich in Indianapolis. Right now, he appears safe. Irsay gave him a public vote of confidence too — though it’s worth pointing out he called QB Matt Ryan a “steely-eyed missile man” just days before spearheading his benching. So take Irsay’s confidence in Reich with a grain of salt. If we get to the end of the season and the Colts miss the playoffs, Reich’s job and a lot of other people’s will absolutely be in jeopardy. 
• Once again we have another lengthy injury report, the worst part of football:
  • Buccaneers OLB Shaquil Barrett tore his Achilles during last Thursday’s loss to the Ravens, which is a big hit to Tampa Bay’s defense. Barrett wasn’t having as productive a year as he’s capable of but he was still one of their best defenders and their most proven pass rusher. For a variety of reasons, this just doesn’t seem like it’s the Bucs’ year. 
  • Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie was having a great season as Cincinnati’s No. 1 corner and was a huge part of their success on that side of the ball. They’ll have to figure out a way forward after he tore his ACL in Monday night’s loss to the Browns. The Bengals defense is reliant on good corner play, so a lot is riding on Eli Apple and second-round rookie Cam Taylor-Britt now. 
  • The injury run on wide receivers continues, as Ravens WR Rashod Bateman aggravated his sprained foot early on in Thursday’s game. Turns out, he hurt it bad enough to need season-ending surgery, which seems just as well considering how hard it had been for him to try and play through it. However, the Ravens were already thin at receiver and this leaves them in a predicament. They already brought DeSean Jackson back out of near retirement, this should up the stakes for them to be involved in the pursuit of Odell Beckham Jr. later this month. 
  • The hits continued, as the toe injury that has sidelined Saints WR Michael Thomas since Week 3 turned out to be worse than was let on. Turf toe, which is what appears to be the injury, is gnarly, but the changing expectations of when he’ll be healthy is a theme with Thomas at this point. The veteran will need surgery and it’s unlikely he’ll be able to return to play for New Orleans this season. It’s a sucky run of injuries but the reality is Thomas has probably played his final game as a Saint. They need cap space and it would be irresponsible to restructure him again.
  • What I expect the Saints to do is a neat accounting trick we’ve seen the Eagles use a couple of times. Designating Thomas as a June 1 cut would save $16.45 million with only $11.8 million in dead cap, as opposed to $2.8 million savings/$25 million dead cap in a straight release. That’s because a June 1 cut delays all of the prorated money from accelerating onto the current year. The catch is those savings don’t kick in until June 1 (hence the name) and Thomas would still count over $28 million on the cap until then. But the trick the Eagles figured out is that with players who don’t have any guarantees, you can rework their deals to lower their compensation to the absolute minimum, money they won’t be seeing anyway, and provide your team with the bulk of the savings in March when it’s really useful. The Saints can do this with two players and I’d bet a donut Thomas is one of them. 
• Finally, even in a week full of trades, the biggest, most shocking headline of the week might have been Commanders owner Dan Snyder seriously opening the door to the possibility of selling the team. We’re still a few steps away from that but the shift in tone coming out of the team has been notable. For years and years, Snyder has defiantly resisted all of the pressure to sell the team. He did the same with the former name, until all of a sudden the mounting pressure became too much. The parallels here are uncanny. There are now several active investigations into everything from sexual harassment to embezzlement going on by federal prosecutors, Congress and the NFL itself. Snyder’s fellow owners are publicly willing to talk about voting him out. He could fight it all…or he could take $6 billion to go back to relative anonymity. One way or another, it truly seems like his days running the franchise are numbered, which is an answer to countless prayers from that fanbase.