NFLTR Review: Landing Spots For Julio Jones

By
Logan Ulrich
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Happy Friday once again! The NFL usually winds down during the summer but the trade block is popping this year. In this week’s issue:

  • Breaking down the possible trade partners for the Falcons and Julio
  • More landing spots for Ertz, Moses and others
  • Fantasy football nuggets, sleeper teams and Tua talk

Around The Trade Block: Julio Jones

Sometimes it can be a little fuzzy to tell which players are on the trade block. It’s not like in Madden or fantasy leagues where teams post everyone they’re willing to move in one place. 

However, when it comes to Falcons WR Julio Jones, we absolutely, incontrovertibly know that the future Hall of Famer is available. Falcons GM Terry Fontenot came right out and said it the week of the draft. 

“That’s one of those things when you’re doing things the right way in an organization, you have to listen if people call, on any player,” Fontenot said, via ESPN.com. “Especially, we are in a difficult cap situation, that’s just the circumstance and it’s not a surprise for us. We knew the circumstance we were in. Our administration has done an excellent job up to this point getting us in a position to be able to manage the cap, and yet we still have more work to do.

“So when teams call about any players then we have to listen and we have to weigh it and we have to determine what’s best for the organization and we have to handle everything with class.

“Obviously that particular player, we hold him in high regard. He’s special in what he’s done and what he continues to do here. But we have to consider any players if it’s right for the team because we have to do what’s best for this organization.”

Shedding salary is the primary impetus for a Jones deal from the Falcons’ point of view. They need at least $7 million more to sign their draft picks and operate during the season and the only two contracts they can touch for that relief are Jones’ and DT Grady Jarrett’s, per the Athletic’s Jeff Schultz in his Jones trade update Thursday.

For that reason, any deal would not be executed until after June 1 when it would minimize the dead money hit to Atlanta this year and save them $15.3 million. Ideally, the Falcons can get a handful of teams into a bidding war for Jones and get at least a second-round pick. Their leverage isn’t great, though. In addition to his salary, Jones is 32 and missed a big chunk of last season due to injury. He’s also practiced less and less as he’s gotten older. There’s a decent chance he’s a ticking time bomb, as we’ve seen the cliff come fast for other receivers once they get past 30. 

However, he’s still one of the most physically talented receivers ever and should be compelling for a team that needs a little juice in the passing game to try and push it over the top for a championship. 

Here’s a look at some potential landing spots, ordered by my best guess at who is most likely to be able to close a deal: 

Titans

Schultz linked the Titans to Jones despite Tennessee not appearing to be in much better cap shape than Atlanta. That $3.587 million in available space, per Over The Cap, is misleading, though. The Titans have a number of levers they can still pull with restructures to create plenty of cap space to accommodate a trade for Jones. Restructuring QB Ryan Tannehill’s deal alone would be sufficient. 

The fit with Jones in Tennessee is obvious. There’s a massive void at wide receiver for the Titans outside of star A.J. Brown, as the team had to start over almost completely from scratch at the position. Jones is a huge upgrade over Josh Reynolds and Dez Fitzpatrick and would take attention away from both Brown and RB Derrick Henry. 

The familiarity with new Falcons HC Arthur Smith could also help jump-start trade talks the same way it did for the Rams and Lions earlier this offseason. If Jones is an impact receiver for a few more seasons, it’s probably worth what Tennessee envisions is going to be a late second. 

49ers

Kyle Shanahan is an obvious connection as he coached Jones in Atlanta for two seasons in 2015 and 2016 when the receiver was at his absolute peak. In two years under Shanahan, Jones caught 219 passes for 3,280 yards. He had 16 games of at least 100 yards receiving and 14 touchdowns. 

Shanahan has been looking for that kind of game-tilting No. 1 receiver ever since and the chance to bring the original prototype to San Francisco might be too much to pass up. The 49ers see themselves as contenders still and Jones is a potent addition to an offense that already has a ton of weapons between TE George Kittle and receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. 

Absorbing Jones’ $15.3 million salary would be the rub for San Francisco, though it’s not impossible. They could sweeten the offer and get Atlanta to eat some of that figure. They could push some money into the future on either DL Arik Armstead or S Jimmie Ward’s deals. And of course, there’s QB Jimmy Garoppolo as a potential major source of savings. 

For now, the 49ers assert Garoppolo is their starting quarterback and that their plan is to try and have their cake and eat it too by giving Garoppolo one last chance to recreate the 2019 Super Bowl run. No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance is the future though, and San Francisco could go ahead and turn the page, taking the $23.6 million in savings from cutting Garoppolo and using it to bring in Jones and bolster Lance’s supporting cast even more. 

(Technically the 49ers could also restructure Garoppolo’s deal but that’s just borrowing $12.35 million from the 2022 cap that’s probably not going to grow that dramatically from this year’s pandemic-capped version. If they do that, they’re really putting their money where their mouth is about Jimmy)

Patriots

It’s not a blockbuster trade without the Patriots being connected in some form or fashion. While New England made it a point to revamp their receiving corps in free agency, Jones is just at another level than Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. And while receivers can have a hard time transitioning to the Patriots offense, there are reasons to believe there are more parallels here to Randy Moss than Chad Johnson. 

Like most teams, New England probably would push for the Falcons to take on some of Jones’ salary to facilitate a deal. OTC has them with $12 million in available cap space factoring in the rookie pool. But the Patriots could get creative with restructures or void years to bridge any remaining gap. Maybe Bill Belichick doesn’t want to send another second to the Falcons for an aging receiver after getting burned by Mohamed Sanu. Jones is on a different level, though. 

Chargers

The No. 1 rule of having a young quarterback is to build around them. The Chargers have done that on the offensive line for Justin Herbert this offseason, most notably adding All-Pro C Corey Linsley and first-round LT Rashawn Slater. The pass-catching group hasn’t received the same attention, though. 

To be fair, a group that’s headlined by Keenan Allen and Mike Williams is pretty solid. Austin Ekeler is also just as much a receiver as he is a running back. However, the Chargers replaced Hunter Henry with Jared Cook and there’s not much at receiver behind Allen and Williams. 

The Chargers don’t need a receiver but Jones is the type of player who, if healthy, can give Los Angeles the type of overpowering firepower that’s worked so well for the Chiefs the past couple of seasons. They’re also one of just a handful of teams that wouldn’t have to do any reconfigurations to take on Jones’ contract. He spends much of his offseason each year in Los Angeles as well, so he’d likely welcome a trade to the Chargers if he has any say in things. It all comes down to whether GM Tom Telesco thinks it’s worth the gamble. How aggressive does he want to be with Herbert on a rookie deal?

Chiefs

Fixing the offensive line was the top priority for the Chiefs this offseason, so they allowed Sammy Watkins to walk and replaced him with…not really anyone. Mecole Hardman is penciled in as the No. 2 and Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and fifth-round rookie Cornell Powell round out the rest of the group. While Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce remain the elite, go-to targets, this will be the worst pass-catching group Patrick Mahomes has had since taking the starting job. 

Trading for Jones would change that in a hurry. Salary is obviously the major hurdle. Not only do the Chiefs have just $6 million to work with but they have to reserve enough for a new deal for OT Orlando Brown after trading for him in a contract year. It would take a combination of the Falcons eating some of Jones’ salary, restructuring Kelce and Hill and hammering out an extension for S Tyrann Mathieu that lowers his nearly $20 million cap hit. 

It’s a lot but it’s not impossible for Kansas City if GM Brett Veach gets creative. Mahomes and Jones is a lot of fun to think about

Raiders

A few folks have connected the Raiders and HC Jon Gruden to interest in Jones. Obviously Jones is an incredible talent who Gruden has marveled over for years. A splashy trade for an esteemed veteran would be on-brand for Gruden. I just don’t see a really viable path to fitting Jones’ salary on Las Vegas’ books unless he’s willing to dramatically rework his deal. 

Colts

Unlike a lot of other teams on this list, the Colts aren’t hurting for cap space. Even after signing their draft class, OTC projects Indianapolis to have nearly $18 million in space. That’s more than enough to take on Jones and add a potent weapon for Carson Wentz. 

However, I highly doubt Jones ends up in Indy. The Colts have that cap space earmarked for extensions for LB Darius Leonard, RT Braden Smith and, down the road, G Quenton Nelson. It’s also not GM Chris Ballard’s MO to spend precious draft capital on aging, win-now assets. The team is also much more bullish on the group of T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell than most observers. 

Ravens

Baltimore is one of the teams confirmed to have talked to Atlanta about a Jones deal. That was before drafting Rashod Bateman in the first round and Tylan Wallace in the fourth, though. The Ravens have spent the most draft capital of any team in the past three years on the receiver position and signed Watkins in free agency to boot. 

Jones would be the best receiver on the roster, but it’s hard to justify making even more of an investment in that position. The Ravens have already punched a lot of their salary buttons and would have a hard time clearing a lot more cap space to bring Jones on as well. Baltimore fans can trade for Jones in Madden, because that seems like the only way to see him in purple. 

This Week In Football

  • We’re starting to creep into what traditionally is a lull in the calendar, with OTAs and not much else besides Twitter debates about the greatest deep threat of all time to stay occupied. There were a few notable transactions this week, however. Washington cut starting RT Morgan Moses after giving him a last-ditch chance to find a trade partner who’d take on his $7.5 million salary. Moses has been a stalwart for Washington since 2015. But HC Ron Rivera is continuing to put his stamp on the team and the move clears money for other extensions coming down the pipe as well as a path for second-round OT Samuel Cosmi to enter the starting lineup. Washington also signed DB Bobby McCain, who should help at both safety and nickel corner. 
  • Another established veteran Washington already moved on from earlier this offseason, DE Ryan Kerrigan, officially signed a deal to join the division-rival Eagles. The Football Team’s all-time leading sack artist now joins what is shaping up to be a pretty deep defensive line in Philadelphia. Which is good, because the unit will have its work cut out for it covering for the back seven. 
  • Eagles TE Zach Ertz was not in attendance as the team gathered in person for OTAs. That’s not a surprise, as Ertz pretty clearly had moved on from the team at the end of last season. What’s mildly surprising is that the Eagles have held onto him for as long as they have. Hard to imagine there’s more of a market for Ertz now than there was at the beginning of the offseason. June 1 is a date to note here, as the savings for cutting or trading Ertz go up. 
  • So far, so good for Bengals QB Joe Burrow as he rehabs a gnarly knee injury that cut short a promising rookie season. His doctors have given Burrow preliminary clearance and all signs point to the former No. 1 pick being on the field and behind center for Cincinnati in Week 1. 
  • The Jaguars cut RB Ryquell Armstead, who missed the entire 2020 season dealing with the effects of COVID-19. Thankfully Armstead landed on his feet with the Giants and looks like he might have the chance to get his career back on track. 
  • After placing RT Ja’Wuan James on the non-football injury list, the Broncos cut the veteran in what is presumably a precursor to recouping a fair amount of the salary they previously owed him. The NFLPA will probably file a grievance and this will be a big fight that’ll drag out a while. 
  • The Broncos were one of the most snakebitten teams in terms of injuries last year and that’s continued this offseason. In addition to James, WR DaeSean Hamilton went down with a torn ACL and was placed on the NFI list. It particularly stings for Hamilton because he was reportedly on the verge of being traded to the 49ers before the injury. 
  • This wasn’t a major deal, but I feel like we’re contractually obligated to cover it. The Eagles flipped a 2023 sixth-round pick and CB Jameson Houston to the Jaguars for 2020 fourth-round CB Josiah Scott. It probably doesn’t move the needle much. Houston is now on his fourth team since entering the league at the same time as Scott, while the latter will compete for a role as a nickel corner in the Eagles secondary. 
  • One rumor that’s leaked about this past coaching cycle now that we’re well-removed from it: The Lions apparently offered Iowa State HC Matt Campbell a massive $68.5 million deal that he turned down, which is notable for a few reasons. Obviously, it confirms Dan Campbell wasn’t the team’s first choice or even its most highly-rated Campbell. That might not matter. The Colts are pretty happy with their leftover choice of Frank Reich. If this report is accurate, it shows Campbell is the next major college target NFL teams will be chasing, and that he’s well aware of it, as he’s now turned down offers from the Jets and Detroit to stay in Ames. Neither job was perfect but that’s a lot of cheddar to turn down. 

Bonus Landing Spots: Ertz, Moses, Hicks, Crosby

There are a few more players on the block or potentially on the move in the coming weeks. Ertz continues to languish in Philadelphia as GM Howie Roseman doubles down on overplaying his hand. The Cardinals allowed LB Jordan Hicks permission to explore a trade and if no market develops, odds are Arizona will release Hicks like Washington did Moses today. Tyrell Crosby was a starting right tackle for Detroit last year but the addition of Penei Sewell pushed him to the bench and potentially the trade block. 

All four are still capable starters to varying degrees, so they’ll be playing in 2021. The question is just for who, and we take a stab at that here. 

Ertz: Jaguars

Tim Tebow put pen to paper on a contract this week but not even Urban Meyer expects him to solve the Jaguars’ issues at the tight end position. It might be one of the five weakest position groups in the entire league, with blocking aficionado Chris Manhertz, fifth-round rookie Luke Farrell and James O’Shaughnessy, who set a career-high last year with 28 catches for 262 yards. 

That’s where Ertz comes in. His $8 million salary for 2021 has caused some other teams to balk at the Eagles’ asking price, but the Jaguars are still swimming in cap space. A solid tight end is a young quarterback’s best friend, so even if Ertz is on the other side of 30, he could still be a vital cog for the rebuilding Jaguars and No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence. 

Moses: Chiefs

Moses is in a tough spot, as most of the right tackle jobs have been filled and most of the money has been spent at this point in the offseason. However, he’s an upper-tier starter at his position and just turned 30 this offseason. A one-year deal to try and cash in next offseason might be his best bet. 

Kansas City has poured a lot of resources into their offensive line but they’re still looking at the winner of a competition between Mike Remmers and 2020 third-rounder Lucas Niang, who opted out of his rookie season, starting for them on the right side. Moses would be a massive upgrade and at this point probably won’t cost more than a few million. Recent deals for tackles include:

A deal similar to Villanueva’s with voidable years to lower the hit could make sense for both sides. 

Hicks: Eagles

The Cardinals want to go young with Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins, leaving Hicks on the outs despite being a reliable veteran the past couple of seasons. He won’t cost much to acquire and the Eagles could bring him back to where his career began as a third-round pick to address their need at linebacker. 

Crosby: Lions

Crosby doesn’t have Moses’ reputation to buoy his market, though he is younger and cheaper. He had pre-draft visits with the Giants and Rams coming out of Oregon in 2018 so those would be teams to keep an eye on potentially but both already have options at right tackle they seem content with, with 2020 third-rounder Matt Peart and Nate Solder holding it down in New York and Rob Havenstein entrenched in Los Angeles. 

Ultimately, the best place for Crosby might be in Detroit. New OL coach Hank Fraley was the assistant position coach under the last staff and knows Crosby well. If injuries strike, Crosby’s versatility might come in handy. He’s in the final year of his contract anyway, so unless an injury opens up another job elsewhere, staying in a familiar environment to try and show out might be his best play. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

When you put it that way…

Both first-round RBs Najee Harris and Travis Etienne talked about splitting out wide regularly as a part of the offense following minicamp last weekend. I’d be much more encouraged about the Steelers’ plans than the Jaguars’ as a fantasy manager…

Harris was an outstanding receiver at Alabama and is a clean projection into the role Le’Veon Bell used to play for Pittsburgh. Urban Meyer, meanwhile, is trying to convert Etienne into the type of weapon he had in college with Percy Harvin, Curtis Samuel and Parris Campbell. Etienne has speed but he’s a work in progress as a receiver, a position Jacksonville had him working almost exclusively at minicamp. The fit isn’t as clean…

More fantasy nuggets: there’s been some hand-wringing about the 17-game season throwing off the fantasy playoffs with byes in Week 14. I don’t understand why any commissioner wouldn’t just push everything back a week, so someone please feel free to share if I’m missing anything…

Another impact of the expanded season, depth and the ability to absorb injuries is going to be more important than ever…

Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd in fantasy? The answer is yes…

If you want to read more about this class of UDFA’s, Rotoworld’s NBC Sports Edge’s Thor Nystrom has probably more than you ever wanted to know on the subject. He grades every team’s class of undrafted rookies, with the AFC here and NFC here. He also has a big board of top individual UDFAs based on his draft rankings. More on that subject coming on NFLTR in the coming weeks…

The union has a tough job representing a diverse group of players but McAfee hits the nail on the head here. This obsession with OTAs smacks of the union trying to curry back favor with some of the higher-paid players upset about the concession of a 17-game season, and does not have the best interests at heart of the minimum salary players who pushed the vote on the latest CBA through…

The betting lines are out and most places have the Lions and Texans as underdogs in every game. I think there’s a good chance Detroit beats that, though… 

I’m buying what Campbell is selling and I think this is going to be a tough team. They have a legitimate strength with the offensive line, which could be top ten, maybe even top five. That’s enough to open lanes for D’Andre Swift, keep Jared Goff clean and let him get the ball to Swift and T.J. Hockenson. People will trash their receivers, but Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman are legitimate deep threats, as long as they stay healthy…

Defense is the other wildcard but it would be hard to be worse than 2020. A playoff berth is probably too ambitious but I think the Lions push hard for seven or eight wins…

Stock up for Tua…

This looks photoshopped. It’s not, but still…

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