NFLTR Review: Ranking All 32 Draft Classes

In this issue, we thumb our nose at the naysayers claiming you can’t grade a draft right away:

• Ranking all 32 draft classes, B to V
• Best picks, biggest surprises, super sleepers & more
• Plus, Jordan Love’s unconventional strategy of betting *against* himself

Ranking All 32 Draft Classes

It’s true that no one knows how things will pan out for the 259 players selected in the 2023 NFL Draft last week. We won’t have an idea of the true winners and losers from this weekend for a year or three. 

But contrary to what some people will try to say, that doesn’t mean we can’t grade each team’s performance in the draft. We don’t know the future but we know the past, and there are historical trends that can inform how we view the selections that were made. History says about half of the players taken will wash out, and logic says only about half of the 32 teams got materially better. 

So here’s our batch of draft grades, sorted and ranked for all 32 teams. Teams with more picks will naturally have an edge over teams with fewer, as will the teams that traded down as opposed to up. We also know that historically teams that draft against the consensus don’t actually end up being smarter than the rest of the league, at least not on average. But teams also enter the draft with different needs and goals, so that’s factored in as well, along with a good old-fashioned dose of gut feeling. 

That’s what makes the draft fun. We all get to weigh in with opinions, then sit back and watch how it plays out. 

1 – Arizona Cardinals

2 – Indianapolis Colts

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	4	Anthony Richardson	QB
2	44	Julius Brents	CB
3	79	Josh Downs	WR
4	106	Blake Freeland	OT
4	110	Adetomiwa Adebawore	DL
5	138	Darius Rush	CB
5	158	Daniel Scott	S
5	162	Will Mallory	TE
5	176	Evan Hull	RB
6	211	Titus Leo	EDGE
7	221	Jaylon Jones	CB
7	236	Jake Witt	OT

 

Best pick: Anthony Richardson

Worst pick: Will Mallory

Grade: A

This is the type of draft that could get Colts GM Chris Ballard back in the good graces of everyone. It could also get him fired if the first pick doesn’t work out. Indianapolis has finally gambled on a young quarterback, and while Richardson has a long way to go, his upside is almost limitless due to his rare combination of size, speed, arm strength and, yes, actually being a good quarterback. If he puts it together, the Colts will have their own alien quarterback to compete with all the other alien quarterbacks in the meatgrinder that is the AFC. 

Athleticism and upside was the theme of this draft, as nearly every pick brings impressive physical attributes to the table. Brents and Rush are tall, long and fast corners, and while Jones didn’t time particularly fast, he’s also over 6-2. Adebawore had one of the best Combine performances of any defensive player ever, and it’s a little surprising he was available in the fourth round. Freeland ran a sub-5-second 40 at 6-8 and over 300 pounds, and Witt is an impressive athlete for the tackle position too. 

Downs is the glaring exception to the rule in this class, as at 5-9 and 171 pounds he timed at only 4.48 seconds in the 40, though his jump and agility drills were good. He was the pick primarily due to his polish as a route runner to add a dimension to the Colts’ receiving corps that’s not currently there. Ballard should also be commended for trading back three times and picking up extra fourth, fifth and sixth-round picks. While I listed Mallory as the worst pick because they already had so many tight ends, he was another impressive tested and they had picks to spread around the roster. 

3 – Seattle Seahawks

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	5	Devon Witherspoon	CB
1	20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR
2	37	Derick Hall	OLB
2	52	Zach Charbonnet	RB
4	108	Anthony Bradford	OL
4	123	Cameron Young	DT
5	151	Mike Morris	DE
5	154	Olusegun Oluwatimi	OL
6	198	Jerrick Reed	S
7	237	Kenny McIntosh	RB

 

Best pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Worst pick: Zach Charbonnet

Grade: A-

Seattle had the benefit of working with four picks in the first four rounds, but the Texans had a haul too and ended up with a far lower grade, so number of picks isn’t always a guarantee of success if a team fritters them away. Witherspoon flew under the radar as an option for the Seahawks at No. 5 overall but if he pans out at the level Seattle is suggesting based on the pick, the team is turning a position that’s solid into potentially an overwhelming strength.

The same is true at receiver. Calling the Seahawks the best receiving trio in the NFL when Smith-Njigba hasn’t played a snap yet is premature. There are questions about his overall ceiling as a potential slot-only player which is why he slipped to No. 20. But with WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett commanding attention on the outside, Smith-Njigba is going to have tons of space to operate in the middle of the field, and he’s shown to be a tough cover in tight spaces. He has all the makings of a matchup nightmare on third down who could quickly become one of QB Geno Smith‘s favorite targets — and speaking of Smith, he was a huge winner when the Seahawks left the draft without taking a quarterback and spent multiple picks on the supporting cast on offense. 

Hall, Young and Morris should help with the glaring need Seattle had on the defensive front. Bradford and Oluwatimi provide depth on the offensive line and in an ideal situation develop into starting-caliber players. The big question mark here is Charbonnet. The Seahawks did need a running back, they had only two on the roster and when 2022 second-round RB Kenneth Walker got banged up last season, it hurt the offense a lot. But given the draft capital invested in Walker last year and how good he was as a rookie, it surprised a lot of people to see the Seahawks turn around a year later and invest another second-round pick in Charbonnet, especially because at first glance there seems to be a lot of overlap between their skillsets as three-down backs who are more limited as receivers. Evidently Seattle plans on running the ball enough to give both plenty of work, but it’s fair to ask if a third or fourth-round pick might have been better resource allocation. 

4 – Baltimore Ravens

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	22	Zay Flowers	WR
3	86	Trenton Simpson	ILB
4	124	Tavius Robinson	DE
5	157	Kyu Blu Kelly	CB
6	199	Sala Aumavae-Laulu	OL
7	229	Andrew Vorhees	OL

 

Best pick: Trenton Simpson

Worst pick: Sala Aumavae-Laulu

Grade: A-

Simpson was one of the biggest surprise fallers after being viewed as a top-40 or so prospect. The Ravens were the beneficiaries, plucking the uber-athletic linebacker in the third round. What’s interesting to note is that there’s research that shows perceived “steals” don’t necessarily live up to their pre-draft ranking, and the NFL as a whole was pretty down on this linebacker class. Still, getting a back end of the first player in the third is notable. 

Flowers in the first round will likely define whether this class is a success or not as the team adds more weapons around QB Lamar Jackson. He’s explosive but small. Vorhees was a potential early Day 3 pick until he tore his ACL this spring, so the Ravens nabbed a potential developmental contributor at a discount in the seventh round. 

I’m nitpicking with the worst selection, but per the consensus big board, Aumavae-Laulu was the biggest reach by Baltimore, going 82 picks ahead of his ranking which suggested he was more of a priority free agent than a sixth-round pick. Still, at that point on Day 3 there’s a rationale to just use the pick on a player if you have a high enough grade.

5 – Philadelphia Eagles

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	9	Jalen Carter	DT
1	30	Nolan Smith	LB
3	65	Tyler Steen	OT
3	66	Sydney Brown	S
4	105	Kelee Ringo	CB
6	188	Tanner McKee	QB
7	249	Moro Ojomo	DT

 

Best pick: Nolan Smith

Worst pick: Kelee Ringo

Grade: A-

Philadelphia has gotten a ton of praise for this draft class and rightfully so. They got Carter, who was widely seen as the most talented player in this class, then doubled back in the first round with a player a lot of teams expected them to take at No. 10. Steen and Brown were values where they were picked, too, and could end up as starters in the next couple of years. 

Still, the Eagles took on a little bit of risk with this class. The character concerns with Carter were serious and a big reason he was within reach of Philadelphia at No. 9 overall. The upside is worth the risk but it’s entirely possible Carter flames out, hard. There was a reason Smith slid all the way to No. 30 as well, too, and he might end up being too small to be a full-time player (though I think his athleticism mitigates those concerns). 

Ringo was widely expected to be a Day 2 pick so a lot of people have trumpeted the value the Eagles got by landing him in the fourth round. They noted they had a higher grade on him than when he went but they still gambled by trading a third-round pick next year to get back into the fourth for him. Ringo has elite size and speed for a cornerback but slipped due to concerns about his stiffness. If the Eagles had a third-round or higher grade on him, it’s easy to see how they felt comfortable trading the pick, but again, there’s a higher level of risk they’re taking on. 

6 – Pittsburgh Steelers

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	14	Broderick Jones	OT
2	32	Joey Porter Jr.	CB
2	49	Keeanu Benton	NT
3	93	Darnell Washington	TE
4	132	Nick Herbig	LB
7	241	Cory Trice	CB
7	251	Spencer Anderson	G

 

Best pick: Darnell Washington

Worst pick: Nick Herbig

Grade: B+

Pittsburgh’s draft looks tremendous on paper because they nabbed a number of prospects who went a lot later than the consensus. Porter Jr. would have been an option for them in the first round at No. 17 had they stayed put instead of trading up for one of the top tackles. They got him with the first pick of the second round and were still able to trade back and recoup what they gave up to go get Jones. Herbig and Trice were taken lower than expected, with some thought Trice could sneak into the end of Day 2 due to his excellent athletic testing. 

The biggest value was Washington, who fell deep into the third round due to unspecified concerns about his injury history, including possibly his knee. Asked about it, Washington said he didn’t have any concerns and the Steelers felt good enough about it to still use a third-round pick on him. Washington is an other-worldly athlete and an outstanding blocker. The second attribute should get him on the field even though the Steelers already have a great tight end in Pat Freiermuth.

There’s not really a pick I didn’t like but I do question how Herbig will transition to the NFL. His best asset is his pass-rushing skill, as he played on the edge in college. He might be too small to hold up there in the NFL, though. You can’t knock his intangibles but sometimes those types of players are better in college than the NFL. 

7 – Miami Dolphins

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
2	51	Cam Smith	CB
3	84	Devon Achane	RB
6	197	Elijah Higgins	WR
7	238	Ryan Hayes	OT

 

Best pick: Cam Smith

Worst pick: Not taking a true tight end

Grade: B+

The Dolphins only had four picks due to various trades that left them draft capital depleted, but at least right now it looks like they squeezed a lot of value out of what they had. Smith was garnering some first-round love by some draft outlets and is a toolsy prospect to put in the pipeline behind veterans Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard. Cornerback was a big weakness for Miami in 2022 but it looks like a major strength now. 

I really struggled with naming a worst pick here. Achane was one of the fastest players in the class and gives the Dolphins yet another home-run threat on offense. Hayes went 60 picks later than the consensus and addresses a need for depth up front. If there’s a nit to pick, it’s that the Dolphins didn’t add a “true” tight end in the deepest class at the position in years. But they did roll the dice on Higgins, who will convert from receiver to tight end in the NFL where his athleticism will be much more of an asset against safeties and linebackers. 

8 – Chicago Bears

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	10	Darnell Wright	OT
2	53	Gervon Dexter	DT
2	56	Tyrique Stevenson	CB
3	64	Zacch Pickens	DT
4	115	Roschon Johnson	RB
4	133	Tyler Scott	WR
5	148	Noah Sewell	LB
5	165	Terell Smith	CB
7	218	Travis Bell	DT
7	258	Kendall Williamson	S

 

Best pick: Tyler Scott

Worst pick: Tyrique Stevenson

Grade: B+

The Bears had the worst roster in football last year, so they were never going to address all of their needs in one offseason. I thought they did a solid job chipping away in the draft this year, especially with the focus on the line of scrimmage. Three of their first four picks were aimed at fortifying the trenches on either side of the ball, and if two of them pan out as starters, that’s a big win. Chicago’s trade down from No. 1 overall that added a future first and WR D.J. Moore should also be mentioned as a part of this, as that move was a big win for the team. 

Scott has some big fans and drew some lofty comparisons by some evaluators in the scouting community, as he has blazing speed and shows flashes of strong route running. He’s small and has some glitches with his hands but Bears fans who remember WR Taylor Gabriel will appreciate Scott. If he pans out like Gabriel, the pick will be a hit, and there’s upside for a lot more. 

Overall I liked a lot of what the Bears did, however, the trade up for Stevenson felt unnecessary. The team gave up a fifth-round pick, which isn’t bad, but they took Stevenson ahead of consensus. He checks a lot of athletic boxes as a prospect and could pan out as a starter, I just have a minor issue with the process.

9 – New England Patriots

10 – Green Bay Packers

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	13	Lukas Van Ness	DE
2	42	Luke Musgrave	TE
2	50	Jayden Reed	WR
3	78	Tucker Kraft	TE
4	116	Colby Wooden	DL
5	149	Sean Clifford	QB
5	159	Dontayvion Wicks	WR
6	179	Karl Brooks	DT
6	207	Anders Carlson	K
7	232	Carrington Valentine	CB
7	235	Lew Nichols III	RB
7	242	Anthony Johnson Jr	S
7	256	Grant DuBose	WR

 

Best pick: Tucker Kraft

Worst pick: Sean Clifford

Grade: B

As the Packers move into the post-Aaron Rodgers era, they’re going to need to draft well to have a chance to be able to stay competitive. Packers GM Brian Gutekunst is well aware of that and pulled off a few moves to put his team in position to have more hits. He moved up two spots in the first round and added another second in the Rodgers trade with the Jets, then moved back twice during the draft to pick up another fifth and sixth. Green Bay finished with 13 selections, hopefully providing a big influx of young, cheap talent. 

Getting help on offense at the skill positions was a major theme, with the Packers double-dipping at tight end with Musgrave and Kraft and adding Reed, who could compete to start right away as a slot receiver. The tight ends give the Packers a lot of versatility to allow them to still be a run-first offense while being able to threaten defenses in the passing game. Tight ends can take time to adjust to the NFL given how much they’re asked to do, so expect growing pains. Both players were highly regarded in a deep class, though. 

Van Ness should help pick up the slack for starting OLB Rashan Gary (ACL) as a rookie and eventually replace the aging Preston Smith. There are some interesting developmental players on Day 3 such as Brooks, someone who played on the edge and was productive in college, but at 6-3, 300 pounds has the size to be an interior mismatch. The most perplexing pick was Clifford. The Packers needed to add to their quarterback room, but Clifford was widely seen as a potential undrafted free agent or camp arm. Perhaps the run on quarterbacks in the late fourth/early fifth caught Green Bay off guard. 

11 – Dallas Cowboys

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	26	Mazi Smith	DT
2	58	Luke Schoonmaker	TE
3	90	DeMarvion Overshown	LB
4	129	Viliami Fehoko	DE
5	169	Asim Richards	OT
6	178	Eric Scott Jr	CB
6	212	Deuce Vaughn	RB
7	244	Jalen Brooks	WR

 

Best pick: Deuce Vaughn

Worst pick: Eric Scott Jr

Grade: B

The Vaughn pick was one of the best in the entire draft for the video alone of Cowboys assistant director of college scouting Chris Vaughn learning Dallas was drafting his son. It was an awesome moment, and the younger Vaughn happens to be a heck of a football player too who slipped the sixth round because he’s only 5-5 and 180 pounds. There’s an opportunity in Dallas for a running back to make a name for himself behind veteran Tony Pollard. Vaughn faces long odds to make the team but he’s been beating the odds to be as successful as he has been already. 

The Cowboys have been one of the better drafting teams over the past several years, and despite the reputation of owner Jerry Jones, they’ve done it by being disciplined and focusing on fundamentally strong players. Smith is an outstanding athlete who fills a big need for Dallas at nose tackle, while Schoonmaker flew under the radar a bit in Michigan’s run-first offense. He’s an outstanding blocker but also a better athlete than people realize.

The only question mark from this class is Scott, who wasn’t on the consensus big board and was acquired after Dallas gave up a fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft to get back into the sixth round to select him. That’s a steep cost for a developmental corner, even if Scott has the size the Cowboys are looking for at cornerback. 

12 – New Orleans Saints

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	29	Bryan Bresee	DT
2	40	Isaiah Foskey	DE
3	71	Kendre Miller	RB
4	103	Nick Saldiveri	OT
4	127	Jake Haener	QB
5	146	Jordan Howden	S
6	195	A.T. Perry	WR

 

Best pick: Jake Haener

Worst pick: Trading up

Grade: B

While I don’t love the Saints burning a fifth and a future fourth to trade up twice in the fourth round, I do like the players they got with those picks a lot. Of course, the Saints clearly did, too. History suggests both of us are being over-confident in our evaluation skills and staying put would have been more optimal. 

Still, the upside of landing Haener could make up for that. The quarterback comparison that’s all the rage right now is Brock Purdy after the 49ers turned the literal last pick in the draft last year into their potential future starter. Haener personally chafes at the comparison but there are a lot of parallels as older, more experienced college starters who win with smarts and accuracy despite limited physical attributes. 

I was a lot higher on Perry than even the consensus, which had him as a fourth-round prospect who slipped to the Saints in the sixth. Foskey and Bresee are good athletes who fill a big need for New Orleans on the defensive line. Miller and Saldiveri could be future starters as well. 

13 – Cincinnati Bengals

14 – New York Giants

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	24	Deonte Banks	CB
2	57	John Michael Schmitz	C
3	73	Jalin Hyatt	WR
5	172	Eric Gray	RB
6	209	Tre Hawkins III	CB
7	243	Jordon Riley	DT
7	254	Gervarrius Owens	S

 

Best pick: Jalin Hyatt

Worst pick: Eric Gray

Grade: B-

The Giants paid somewhat of a stiff premium to move up one spot in the first round for Banks but he also fills a major need for them as a man cover corner. And after giving up a fifth to get Banks, they made another move up using their fourth-round pick to take Hyatt after he fell all the way to the third round. From a process perspective, that’s not ideal, but like the Saints I don’t mind it as much because of the players the Giants got. 

Hyatt had some late-first/early-second buzz but apparently the NFL had more questions about his transition from Tennessee’s unique spread offense than the analyst community. Those are fair. The Volunteers set their receivers up for success in part by utilizing the wider hash marks and numbers in college, spacing that won’t exist in the NFL. That would have made Hyatt a risk in the top 40-50 picks. At the point the Giants got him in the third, though, the speed and playmaking upside were too good to ignore. 

The Gray pick wasn’t bad per se, as the team did need depth at running back. It just didn’t stick out to me compared to their other selections. They reached on Riley but at that point in the seventh round, there’s a high degree of variability in grades. If a player has an attribute you like, such as size in Riley’s case, it’s sometimes worth using a pick instead of haggling for him as an undrafted free agent.

15 – Tennessee Titans

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	11	Peter Skoronski	OT
2	33	Will Levis	QB
3	81	Tyjae Spears	RB
5	147	Josh Whyle	TE
6	186	Jaelyn Duncan	OT
7	228	Colton Dowell	WR

 

Best pick: Peter Skoronski

Worst pick: Will Levis

Grade: B

When I watched tape of Levis along with the other top quarterback prospects in this class, I was not impressed and thought he was clearly the fourth-best of the batch. Levis ended up sliding out of the first round entirely and the Titans traded up into the early second to take him. My criticism of the pick is more about the player than the process. Getting him where they did was good value, and reports were they had a grade on him high enough to consider him at No. 11 and made a few attempts to get back into the first round to take him. A second-round pick on a potential starting quarterback is a good investment. Levis just isn’t stock I want to buy. 

This was Titans GM Ran Carthon‘s first draft and a lot of executives in his position will try to just get on base with their first pick rather than hit a home run. At first glance, that’s what the Skoronski pick looks like, as most teams projected him as a guard in the NFL due to having less than ideal arm length despite playing his entire career at Northwestern at left tackle. He has all the tools to be a fantastic guard, which alone would make him a successful selection for a Titans team that needed to rebuild basically its entire starting five this offseason. But if Skoronski pans out at tackle — and indications are the team is open to giving it a shot — then all of a sudden this base hit could become a home run.  

16 – Cleveland Browns

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
3	74	Cedric Tillman	WR
3	98	Siaki Ika	DT
4	111	Dawand Jones	OT
4	126	Isaiah McGuire	DE
5	140	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	QB
5	142	Cam Mitchell	CB
6	190	Luke Wypler	C

 

Best pick: Luke Wypler

Worst pick: Dawand Jones

Grade: B-

Jones wasn’t necessarily a bad pick but he is definitely the riskiest pick the Browns made last weekend. He’s enormous at 6-8 and 375 pounds, but history says he’ll need to get under 350 to avoid longevity issues and he’ll likely battle with his weight his whole career. If he can put it together, the Browns will have pulled off a coup by getting a starting-caliber tackle in the fourth round. He could also wash out in a year. 

Cleveland used their first two picks on addressing needs, adding Tillman to a receiving corps with no shortage of options and selecting Ika to provide another size boost to what had previously been the lightest defensive tackle room in the league before this offseason. Thompson-Robinson is an interesting backup selection, as there are some tools for him to potentially become a Tyler Huntley-level player. 

Wypler entered the draft early and was widely expected to end up in the third round with the number of center-needy teams. He fell to Cleveland in the sixth however and will have the opportunity to develop behind a few other established options, which could be best for both sides in the end.  

17 – Carolina Panthers

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	1	Bryce Young	QB
2	39	Jonathan Mingo	WR
3	80	D. J. Johnson	OLB
4	114	Chandler Zavala	OL
5	145	Jammie Robinson	S

 

Best pick: Bryce Young

Worst pick: D.J. Johnson

Grade: B-

This draft will be defined by Young and the massive trade package the Panthers surrendered to acquire him. If he turns into a franchise quarterback, it’s all worth it. If not, the team will be set back years. Such is life in the high-stakes world of NFL quarterback evaluation. 

Carolina tried to balance addressing needs with supporting Young with the rest of their class and took on a lot of risk in the process. They liked their interview with Mingo so much they took him way ahead of the consensus and skipped out on a pass rusher. To make up for it, they gave up a fourth-round pick to move up for Johnson, a super athlete but also a developmental prospect who’s already 24 years old. Mingo’s a good athlete as well but the relative lack of college production is more concerning for a receiver than it is for an edge rusher. 

18 – Kansas City Chiefs

19 – New York Jets

20 – Los Angeles Rams

 

Best pick: Zach Evans

Worst pick: Kobie Turner

Grade: C+

With all the financial constraints the Rams had this offseason, they’re going to be leaning on these 14 picks plus another 25-plus undrafted free agents to not only round out the 90-man roster, but also play key depth and starting roles in 2023. It’ll be fascinating to see how it goes, as it’s usually tough to project significant Day 1 roles for players past the first or second round. Los Angeles has no other choice. 

The positive is the Rams understood their position and moved back four times to pick up additional picks. They made on trade to go up and tossed in a 2024 sixth, and that was to get back up for Evans, a deal which I actually like quite a bit. Evans slipped to this point because of questions about maturity and some other off-field baggage. From a talent perspective, he probably should have come off the board in the second or third round. 

The pick of Turner was the biggest reach per the consensus board. He spent five years at Richmond before transferring to Wake Forest and getting on the NFL’s radar. He’s slightly smaller and quicker than a lot of defensive tackles, which invites some natural Aaron Donald comparisons. That’s far too lofty a comparison for anyone, however. 

21 – Denver Broncos

22 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	27	Anton Harrison	OT
2	61	Brenton Strange	TE
3	88	Tank Bigsby	RB
4	121	Ventrell Miller	LB
4	130	Tyler Lacy	DE
5	136	Yasir Abdullah	LB
5	160	Antonio Johnson	DB
6	185	Parker Washington	WR
6	202	Christian Braswell	CB
6	208	Erick Hallett II	S
7	226	Cooper Hodges	G
7	227	Raymond Vojasek	DT
7	240	Derek Parish	FB

 

Best pick: Antonio Johnson

Worst pick: Brenton Strange

Grade: C+

Teams will always project confidence in the immediate aftermath of the draft and claim things went according to plan, even if they didn’t. Sometimes you can tell when a team didn’t love how the board fell and that appears to be what happened for the Jaguars this year. They traded down a bunch, which is good. They picked up two extra fifths and two extra fourths in the process, with one of those fourths coming in 2024. 

However, this draft seems somewhat short on impact contributors. Getting Harrison in the first round was good, especially after trading down twice. He figures to have a bigger role than expected given the suspension for Jaguars OT Cam Robinson, even if it initially looked like Jacksonville took a swing tackle in the first round. The Strange pick hasn’t aged as well. He’s got a smaller build for a tight end but isn’t an outstanding athlete, even if he is a gritty competitor. He profiles more as a role player, as does Bigsby. Both Jacksonville’s fourth-round picks were in the seventh-round range per consensus. 

Johnson, however, was seen as a potential Day 2 pick, and the Jaguars nabbed him in the fifth to bolster their secondary. He was primarily a nickel corner in college but he’ll likely move to safety for the Jaguars. Johnson profiles as a Swiss Army knife defender who can play in the box against the run and cover tight ends. 

23 – Washington Commanders

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	16	Emmanuel Forbes	CB
2	47	Jartavius Martin	S
3	97	Ricky Stromberg	C
4	118	Braeden Daniels	OT
5	137	KJ Henry	DE
6	193	Chris Rodriguez	RB
7	233	Andre Jones	LB

 

Best pick: Emmanuel Forbes

Worst pick: Overall reaches

Grade: C+

In terms of the players the Commanders drafted, they were able to check a lot of boxes in the needs column. Both the secondary and the offensive line needed reinforcements and both areas got multiple players over the draft weekend. The issue is that the Commanders ended up taking every player in the first four rounds ahead of consensus, sometimes drastically so. Trading down isn’t as simple as it sounds sometimes, as it takes someone who wants to trade up, but it’s hard to believe Washington didn’t have any opportunities to move back and acquire more picks. 

That said, Forbes and Martin both had some big fans in other NFL buildings, and Washington is adding two athletic defenders with a knack for big plays to a secondary that was one of the better ones in football last year. Forbes in particular is a fun player, as he returned six of his 14 career interceptions for touchdowns. The knock with him is size, as he checked in during the pre-draft process at 6-1 and 166 pounds. The NFL is becoming more open to smaller players, but having a cornerback that light on defense would make me a little nervous. You can bet offensive coordinators will be running right at him and sending their big receivers over to try and bully him until when and if he shows he’s up to the challenge.

24 – Los Angeles Chargers

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	21	Quentin Johnston	WR
2	54	Tuli Tuipulotu	OLB
3	85	Daiyan Henley	ILB
4	125	Derius Davis	WR
5	156	Jordan McFadden	G
6	200	Scott Matlock	DL
7	239	Max Duggan	QB

 

Best pick: Daiyan Henley

Worst pick: Derius Davis

Grade: C+

What jumps out right away for the Chargers is how they handled the receiver position. Size has been a major emphasis for them in the past which is why it makes sense that they landed on Johnston despite badly needing a dose of speed to their group. Johnston is a better deep threat than his 40 time would suggest and is more dynamic after the catch than either Mike Williams or Keenan Allen, but anyone hoping for a pure speed threat to unlock QB Justin Herbert‘s arm were disappointed. 

Los Angeles circled back for that kind of player by taking Davis in the fourth round — far, far ahead of where consensus viewed him. While he’s athletic, he’s a far better return specialist than receiver at this point in his career, and spending that kind of capital on a return specialist is a risky proposition. 

Henley was a strong value for the Chargers after he slipped to the third round. He’s smaller but that’s less of an issue in the modern NFL where speed and sideline-to-sideline range is valued over taking on guards in the run game. Matlock and McFadden could also become important depth players. 

25 – Las Vegas Raiders

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	7	Tyree Wilson	DE
2	35	Michael Mayer	TE
3	70	Byron Young	DT
3	100	Tre Tucker	WR
4	104	Jakorian Bennett	CB
4	135	Aidan O’Connell	QB
5	170	Christopher Smith	S
6	203	Amari Burney	LB
7	231	Nesta Jade Silvera	DT

 

Best pick: Michael Mayer

Worst pick: Tre Tucker

Grade: C+

The Raiders wanted to methodically shore up as many holes as possible before fitting in a quarterback as the last piece, so they weren’t looking hard into trading up for a quarterback until the later rounds and instead touted a best player available approach. However, they traded up four times and gave up three picks, which seems a little counterintuitive. For a team with this many holes, it seems like getting the most picks possible and the most chances at landing players who can contribute. But the Raiders have operated counterintuitively a lot over the past year. 

As far as the players, Wilson was solid value in the top ten, assuming he’s healthy. Mayer surprisingly slipped out of the first round. He was seen as the best all-around tight end in this class, but less dynamic than some other options, which may have been a contributing factor. He’s an outstanding fit for what the Raiders want at the position, though. Tucker was a surprise at the end of the third round and it sounds like the Raiders highly valued his return ability. 

26 – Detroit Lions

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	12	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB
1	18	Jack Campbell	LB
2	34	Sam LaPorta	TE
2	45	Brian Branch	S
3	68	Hendon Hooker	QB
3	96	Brodric Martin	DT
5	152	Colby Sorsdal	OT
7	219	Antoine Green	WR

 

Best pick: Hendon Hooker

Worst pick: Brodric Martin

Grade: C

The most controversial draft in the league this year. The Lions were flamed for both ignoring positional value and the consensus big board in the first round, taking Gibbs and Campbell way higher than most expected and burning two first-round picks on a running back and linebacker, positions that have widely been de-emphasized around the league. I like the Campbell pick a little more than consensus, as I think there are reasons to believe he’ll live up to the draft slot. Detroit was at least able to trade back and take Gibbs, moving up in the second round for what ended up being LaPorta. 

The Martin pick is easily the worst in my mind, however, given how far ahead of consensus Detroit took him. On top of that, they traded back up to acquire him, giving a fourth and two fifths that they had acquired via various other trade backs. Keeping those would have been shrewd, they might have even been able to use one on Martin. 

Getting Branch and Hooker makes up a little bit for some of the early-round reaches. Both players had a ton of first-round buzz in the leadup to the draft, and in the case of Hooker it appears he slid in large part due to his torn ACL. There are also questions about the learning curve he faces coming from a Tennessee offense with limited carryover to the NFL. But teams have learned it can pay off to take cheap dart throws at quarterbacks in the middle rounds. Hooker can heal and learn in 2023, and perhaps down the road the Lions will have an asset far more valuable than the third-round pick they used. 

27 – Buffalo Bills

 

Best pick: O’Cyrus Torrence

Worst pick: Justin Shorter

Grade: C

It felt like the Bills really wanted to leave this draft with a wide receiver but ended up boxed out when the run on first-rounders started at pick 20 and was over by 24. The next best thing in their estimation was trading up for Kincaid, the top pass-catching tight end in this class. The team already has TE Dawson Knox who they extended on a four-year $52 million contract, but in their post-draft press conference they were selling the idea of Kincaid operating basically as a big receiver.

He certainly can be more dynamic than Knox but the onus will be on Buffalo’s offensive coaching staff to find creative ways to get Kincaid on the field and maximize his skillset along with their other pieces on offense. Every year teams talk about playing more 12 personnel (two tight ends) but even the league leaders are usually under 40 percent of the snaps. Just something to keep in mind when thinking about the potential Year 1 impact for Kincaid. 

The fit for Torrence is much cleaner. He should start right away and hopefully give the Bills more of a physical edge they’ve been looking for on offense. However, Buffalo missed out on addressing needs at defensive tackle and middle linebacker — Williams profiles more as an outside option at just 228 pounds — and reached massively on Shorter per the consensus big board. 

28 – Minnesota Vikings

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	23	Jordan Addison	WR
3	102	Mekhi Blackmon	CB
4	134	Jay Ward	S
5	141	Jaquelin Roy	DT
5	164	Jaren Hall	QB
7	222	DeWayne McBride	RB

 

Best pick: Jordan Addison

Worst pick: Mekhi Blackmon

Grade: C

The Vikings entered the draft knowing they didn’t have enough picks to take care of all the needs that remained on the roster. So it’s notable that they figured they could get by enough at cornerback to forego some of the prospects who were left in the first round to take Addison instead, who is a terrific fit in the offense. Addison’s slight frame had some NFL teams worried about if he could hold up as the focal point of a passing attack, but he won’t have to worry about that in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson commanding double teams. 

Minnesota traded back three times and up once, netting two more picks in 2023 and a fifth in 2024. They did eventually address cornerback in the third round with Blackmon, but it was a big reach, per the consensus board. Blackmon’s age (24) and size (5-11, under 180 pounds at the Combine) are also red flags. 

29 – San Francisco 49ers

30 – Atlanta Falcons

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	8	Bijan Robinson	RB
2	38	Matthew Bergeron	OG
3	75	Zach Harrison	DE
4	113	Clark Phillips	DB
7	224	DeMarcco Hellams	S
7	225	Jovaughn Gwyn	G

 

Best pick: Matthew Bergeron

Worst pick: Bijan Robinson

Grade: C

Robinson is an outstanding running back and a really talented player. That doesn’t change the fact that using a top-ten pick on a running back is not making good use of a premium asset. The research on that is well-established, to the point where criticizing the pick feels like beating a dead horse. Still, teams keep making the same mistakes. 

Bergeron could be a Day 1 starter for the Falcons at left guard and perhaps even a factor at tackle down the road. Phillips fell because he’s undersized and wasn’t an elite tester but he was one of the best defensive players for one of the best defensive programs in the country. It would not be a shock to see him starting sooner rather than later. Harrison has the athletic upside to have a better pro career than college.  

Rd	Pick	Player	Pos.	Note
1	19	Calijah Kancey	DT
2	48	Cody Mauch	OG
3	82	YaYa Diaby	DE
5	153	SirVocea Dennis	LB
5	171	Payne Durham	TE
6	181	Josh Hayes	CB
6	191	Trey Palmer	WR
6	196	Jose Ramirez	LB

 

Best pick: Cody Mauch

Worst pick: Calijah Kancey

Grade: D

Tampa Bay’s entering a transition year in 2023. It’s not as drastic a reset as the Rams, at least not financially, but there’s definitely an element of “take your medicine” for the Buccaneers after a successful window of contending, particularly when it comes to the cap and the quarterback position. However, HC Todd Bowles probably can’t afford a disaster season, so there’s a lot of incentive to try to remain as competitive as possible. 

With the team out of range of a quarterback, that meant trying to invest in other areas of the roster. The Buccaneers are getting a little old in their front seven so the additions of Kancey and Diaby provide an injection of youth. Tampa Bay didn’t take Kancey dramatically higher than the consensus but his lack of size and length is going to be an interesting fit in their scheme. To me, that was a little bit too risky of a gamble in the first round. 

Diaby has some interesting upside but a lot of Tampa Bay’s other later picks were more for role players. On the one hand, there’s something to be said for having an easily projectable role for a Day 3 pick where the expectations are usually low. On the other, there’s not a ton of upside from this group. The best pick to me is Mauch, who can play all five offensive line positions. He should end up as a starter somewhere for Tampa Bay. Also, you can’t look at a photo of this man and tell me he wasn’t born to play offensive line. 

32 – Houston Texans

This Week In Football

• The draft is arguably the most important offseason event on the NFL calendar, so naturally there’s fallout depending on what teams do or don’t do. Some veterans were pushed closer to the exit last weekend, others came out of the event as winners. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins was going to be in Minnesota and starting the whole season almost no matter what in 2023 but had the Vikings invested significant draft capital in a quarterback, it would have clearly been his last season. Now? With only fifth-round QB Jaren Hall coming in, another year or more remains on the table for the Cousins/Vikings partnership, depending of course on how the 2023 season goes. Cousins is in the final year of his deal and could be in demand as a free agent next offseason. Meanwhile, the Vikings, as of yet, don’t have a legitimate in-house alternative. There’s a lot on the line for both sides this year. 
• The Lions also passed multiple times on drafting a quarterback, eventually taking Hendon Hooker in the third round. He’s no immediate threat to incumbent starting QB Jared Goff as he rehabs a torn ACL, and in fact it’s possible Detroit sees him more as a potential backup than future starter. The Lions and Goff had some contact about a potential extension after the draft. It’s not clear where the two sides stand on a potential deal or the timeline. But with two years left on his deal, any extension for Goff could tie him to the Lions for most or all of Hooker’s rookie contract. The team leadership has emphatically backed Goff whenever the subject has come up. Money talks, though. Are the Lions willing to put more money behind Goff? 
• Aside from quarterback, the draft was huge for the status of some of the veteran running backs around the league, most notably Bengals RB Joe Mixon. Cincinnati has been glaringly tepid on the subject of Mixon’s future with the team, and had the Bengals taken a back in the second or maybe even third round, it’s possible Mixon could have been released. But with only fifth-round RB Chase Brown coming in and HC Zac Taylor speaking more authoritatively on Mixon’s stats, he seems to be in better standing. Some kind of pay cut or restructure still isn’t impossible but it’d be a surprise to see the Bengals cut Mixon now. 
• The Giants have been busy on the contract front this offseason, and their work continued with a monster extension for DT Dexter Lawrence coming down the pipe this week. Lawrence signed a four-year, $90 million deal with a whopping $60 million in guarantees. At $22.5 million a year, Lawrence fits right in with Commanders DT Daron Payne and Titans DT Jeffery Simmons as fellow defensive tackles who have cashed in big. Rams DT Aaron Donald is still far ahead of the pack at $31 million a year, but it’s looking more and more unlikely that this year’s crop of players will close the gap much further. Jets DT Quinnen Williams and Chiefs DT Chris Jones are the two players who remain up for new deals. The next order of business for the Giants is trying to get an extension done with RB Saquon Barkley before the July 17 deadline, and the two sides are expected to reconvene at some point with the draft now in the books. 
• The other important milestone after the draft is in the first couple days of May when fifth-year options are due for the first-round draft class three years prior. Aside from the situation with Washington and DE Chase Young that we explored last week, there weren’t really any surprises one year or another with who had their option exercised vs declined — with perhaps the slight exception of Browns LT Jedrick Wills who had his option picked up despite bouts of inconsistency the past few seasons. But easily the most notable bit of news to come from the deadline was the Packers’ one-year extension for QB Jordan Love, which they signed in lieu of picking up his option for the 2024 season at $20.272 million fully guaranteed. The extension technically is worth more in potential value than Love was scheduled to make on the option, and he gets $9 million in his pocket in 2023 as opposed to just $2.3 million. That’s the end of the good news, as I can’t recall seeing a player bet against himself like this. The base value of the reworked deal is just shy of $16 million, all of which is guaranteed, with $9 million in upside via 2024 salary escalators tied to various personal and team performance benchmarks. Unless Love has an outstanding season, it’s hard to see him reaching many of those, and even if he does, he’ll still be under contract at a huge discount for a starter. There’s a ton of upside for the Packers in this situation, as they get Love under contract for two years for less than the option. If things go poorly in 2023, he’s only making high-end backup money ($6 million) in 2024. It’s hard to see the appeal for Love. Had he forced the Packers to make a choice on the fifth-year option, he’d either be looking at more guaranteed money over the next two years or the potential to cash in with a $38 million franchise tag and major leverage on an extension if he had a big season, like Giants QB Daniel Jones. At minimum, this shows a remarkable lack of confidence by Love when most NFL players are more than willing to bet on themselves. 
• The beginning of May is also when the compensatory period for free agents ends, meaning anyone signed afterward does not count toward the compensatory pick formula. It usually kicks off a mini wave (ripple?) of free agency, as teams can sign and spend just a little more freely. Several notable free agent signings were inked this week:
  • Randall Cobb and Aaron Rodgers are pretty much a package deal at this point, until one or both are ready to hang up the cleats. The Jets inked Cobb to a one-year deal with $3 million guaranteed to reunite Rodgers with one of his favorite targets. For the other 31 teams, Cobb would probably be looking at a veteran salary benefit deal at best. He’ll have some value as an experienced voice while the Jets install new OC Nathaniel Hackett‘s offense and the new, young receivers get used to Rodgers, but in terms of on-field value, it’s limited at this point in his career. 
  • The returns from DT Al Woods should be stronger, even if the veteran is 36 years old. He’s been relatively more productive than Cobb for their respective positions, and he also is probably cheaper. The Jets had a much bigger need at defensive tackle than receiver and Woods should plug a hole, literally, in the middle of their defense after signing to a deal. 
  • The Chiefs signed veteran OT Donovan Smith to a one-year deal worth up to $9 million. We’ll see how much work “up to” is doing in this particular report but it seems likely Smith got a strong deal for this time of year. Kansas City needed veteran insurance at tackle, and it will be interesting to see if this changes their plan to move crown free-agent signing OT Jawaan Taylor to the left side. Smith has only played on the left in his career, Taylor has only played on the right. 
  • The Bills didn’t love the way the board fell during the draft and ended up not taking a defensive tackle, even though it was an area they’d earmarked to try to address. They pivoted after the draft and signed DT Poona Ford, formerly with the Seahawks, to a one-year contract. Ford’s short but powerfully built and developed into a disruptive role player for Seattle. He should be a positive addition to Buffalo’s defensive line rotation. 
  • Baltimore went with a receiver in the first round despite spending big on Odell Beckham Jr., perhaps because they knew they had a backstop at cornerback after the draft. The Ravens signed CB Rock Ya-Sin to a one-year deal that can max out at $6 million, likely indicating they see him as a starter this season. Baltimore had a big need at No. 2 cornerback, and with cap space freed up by Jackson’s extension, they’re free to fortify the roster.