Potential Landing Spots For Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson is done in Denver. 

It’s not officially official yet, but at this point that’s just a formality. Between the news of Wilson being benched for backup QB Jarrett Stidham and the revelation that the two sides have been fighting behind the scenes for weeks over Wilson’s $37 million injury guarantee — all while the Broncos were on a five-game winning streak — it’s abundantly clear that both sides are ready to wash their hands of the situation in 2024. 

Just a week ago we looked at the financial ramifications of the Broncos deciding to move on from Wilson this offseason. There’s more detail in that piece but the headline is Denver will have to account for $85 million on their books over the next two years for Wilson while he goes on to continue his career elsewhere. 

As for Wilson, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent and free to choose his next destination. Because the Broncos will still owe him guaranteed money in 2024, Wilson’s next team would only have to pay him the veteran minimum of $1.21 million. If he signs a multi-year deal, things get a little more complicated, but to keep it simple we’ll assume the Broncos will be paying the bulk of Wilson’s salary for two years. 

The market for Wilson will be fascinating. Statistically the veteran has been dramatically better this season than he was in a disastrous 2022 but Broncos HC Sean Payton was unable to return Wilson to the statistical heights he experienced in Seattle. Wilson’s raw numbers look solid but some of the more nuanced stats like EPA per play or adjusted net yards per attempt paint a more average picture. 

The Broncos were willing to move on because the production they got from Wilson didn’t match the financial obligations keeping him would have entailed — which is how 95 percent of the personnel decisions in the NFL are made. A new team won’t have that dilemma, which is why I feel pretty confident in saying Wilson will have some kind of market as a free agent as long as he wants to keep playing. 

Earlier this season, we looked ahead to the 2024 quarterback carousel in a two-part series. Part I examined where every team stood at quarterback and which teams would be highly motivated to find an upgrade. Part II was determining the available options and the possible matches teams could find in free agency, the draft or the trade market. 

Other quarterbacks who are scheduled to be free agents or expected to be cut include Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield, Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo and Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. Off the cuff, I would slot Wilson in the same tier as Mayfield, behind Cousins and comfortably ahead of Garoppolo and Tannehill.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, Bears QB Justin Fields and Patriots QB Mac Jones are potential trade candidates depending on what happens in the draft, where there are three surefire first-round prospects, two of whom will be off the board in the first two or three picks, and a handful of other intriguing players who should be at least Day 2 picks.

If we think about the profile of a team that would be interested in Wilson, it’s likely a squad looking for a solid veteran quarterback to complement a roster with enough talent to make the playoffs. A team looking for a bridge starter could also have some interest because Wilson will be super cheap, in 2024 at least.

As for Wilson, landing with a team that has a vision for him on offense and is poised to potentially have some success would seem to be his priority. However, his options will be far more limited than they would have been two years ago. 

Taking all of this into account, here are the teams that stick out the most as potential landing spots for Wilson. 

Las Vegas Raiders

For as frisky as the Raiders have been down the stretch since turning things over to interim HC Antonio Pierce, it’s clear there’s only so far fourth-round QB Aidan O’Connell can take them. While the rookie has flashed, the Raiders beat the Chiefs on Christmas without a single completed pass from O’Connell after the first quarter. He looks more like a future Brian Hoyer than a Brock Purdy. 

Pierce looks like an increasingly good bet to be retained as the full-time head coach. His first and most important job will likely be finding a new quarterback for the Raiders this offseason. Right now they’re slotted to pick 13th, which means if they wanted to draft a quarterback the odds are good they’d need to trade up. Getting into the top two or three for either North Carolina’s Drake Maye or USC’s Caleb Williams would be pricy — just ask the Panthers — and even a smaller trade up into the top 10 for LSU’s Jayden Daniels wouldn’t come cheap. 

The history between Daniels and Pierce from Arizona State shouldn’t be ignored, but if the Raiders decide to go elsewhere, Wilson becomes a notable option. Las Vegas will likely do homework on trading for a veteran like Murray or Fields if either becomes expendable in Arizona and Chicago respectively, but the benefit of pursuing Wilson is that he will cost exponentially less. 

Wilson also has a far longer NFL resume than Fields even if he’s not as physically gifted at this point in his career. Murray has had a lot of success, but there are logistics to sort through between his contract, Arizona’s asking price and the leadership/work ethic questions that have been raised about Murray since his career began. For the cost of $1.2 million, the Raiders could see Wilson as a viable solution to keep them in the mix in the AFC, leaning on an ascending defense, a strong running game with RB Josh Jacobs and a talented receiving corps spearheaded by WR Davante Adams. 

It’s also worth pointing out the Raiders were on Wilson’s wishlist of teams back in the summer of 2021 that his agent released amidst agitations with the Seahawks. It’s easy to see Wilson meshing with Pierce’s approach of letting player ownership drive things. The Raiders’ decision at offensive coordinator this offseason is another important variable to keep in mind, but there are a lot of positive things to note at this juncture about a potential fit for Wilson in Vegas. 

Atlanta Falcons

Assuming Falcons HC Arthur Smith survives this season, it’s hard to imagine it not coming with a mandate from owner Arthur Blank to solve the quarterback position. Smith pushed his chips in on 2022 third-round QB Desmond Ridder as the player to lead the Falcons to the playoffs as the organization stepped out of a two-year rebuild, backstopping him with only journeyman Taylor Heinicke. In an NFC South that was wide open, Ridder and the Falcons faltered. Even though they’re not technically out of the running for a playoff berth, they need a lot of help. 

Finding the answer at the quarterback position will be a challenge. The Falcons will be picking too low to get either Williams or Maye without a trade up. Depending on where their pick eventually slots, they could have a chance at Daniels but that might require a trade up as well. More importantly, it would entail Smith entrusting a make-or-break season for him to a rookie quarterback. 

Perhaps that’s the way things shake out in the end but if Smith prefers a veteran hand, his options are limited too. Cousins would be the perfect fit but at this stage it feels like he and the Vikings are motivated to get something done to stay together. Mayfield could be intriguing but that’s assuming the Buccaneers allow him to test free agency, which feels unlikely. Smith has a history with Tannehill, but the veteran isn’t someone a credible “savior” at quarterback at this point in his career. 

Both Murray and Fields have mobility that would make for an enticing fit in Smith’s run-heavy offense. But the Falcons had the chance to draft Fields in 2021 and took TE Kyle Pitts instead. At the very least, that suggests they had doubts about his ability to be a franchise passer. Smith has also talked enough about the importance of familiarity when it comes to free agent signings to doubt how willing he’d be to extend himself to trade for Murray, who comes with some baggage related to his work ethic. 

That brings us to Wilson. If the Falcons had even average quarterback play this season, there’s a good chance they’d be the frontrunners in the NFC South. They don’t need Wilson to be Mr. Unlimited, they just need him to make enough plays with the highly-drafted skill position players they’ve assembled while leaning on a strong running game and defense. Another perk is that at just $1.2 million, signing Wilson would give the Falcons abundant resources to continue fortifying the rest of their roster, which was a major reason they went with Ridder this past season instead of making a bigger swing for a quarterback. 

From Wilson’s perspective, Atlanta checks a few important boxes in terms of potential scheme fit and a window to have success. Smith has a solid reputation as an offensive coach, even if he’s not on the firmest ground. If you gave Wilson truth serum right now and asked him, I’m not sure the Falcons would be on top of his wish list, but the hard truth right now is he’s going to have some limited options. 

New England Patriots

There is so much up in the air for the Patriots right now with the way this season has played out but it seems safe to say there will be a new head coach and a new starting quarterback in New England come Week 1 in 2024. With so much change, it’s impossible to rule out the idea of Wilson being the guy under center. 

Let’s back up and chart the path to that. The widespread assumption has been the Patriots and HC Bill Belichick will part ways in some fashion after this season. On the off chance he stays, he’ll be looking for someone to help him win straight away and Wilson has the best resume of any of the passers likely to be available. 

Even if the Patriots move on from Belichick, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be launching a full-scale rebuild. Owner Robert Kraft has made his desire to win no secret. The next coach — whether it’s LB coach Jerod Mayo, the longtime presumed heir apparent, or someone outside the building — will likely be tasked with retooling the roster, not necessarily tearing everything down and taking years to build it back up.  

I don’t mean that to say the Patriots would pass on Maye or Williams if they were available with their first-round pick, which is currently slated No. 4 overall. In that situation, Kraft would probably point to the Texans as an example of a team having success with a notable rookie passer. If neither are available, that complicates the picture for New England. Signing Wilson and using a Day 2 pick on a rookie who doesn’t have to play immediately would be a viable strategy. 

I think Wilson would admire the Patriots’ team culture and history of success. The next head coach and staff is an important variable and will determine how much of a fit the two sides are. But at this stage, the Patriots have to be considered as an option. 

Washington Commanders

I would categorize the Raiders, Falcons and Patriots as the most likely landing spots for Wilson at this point, with the Commanders and the next two teams dark horse candidates. The Commanders seem poised to begin a major rebuild with new owner Josh Harris putting his stamp on every aspect of the team. Current HC Ron Rivera is coaching out the string and it feels like a lot of the current front office will follow him out the door.

If the draft was tomorrow, Washington would have the No. 3 pick and a great chance at one of the two prize quarterback prospects. Even if they won a game or two and dropped in the draft order, they could consider taking Daniels after the shine on incumbent QB Sam Howell has worn off in the past few weeks. Going into 2024 with just Howell looked a lot more likely two months ago than it does right now. 

Ultimately the hires the Commanders make at head coach and likely general manager will influence what direction Washington takes this coming offseason. If they don’t have a crack at Williams or Maye and don’t love any of the other quarterback prospects and don’t want to go into 2024 relying on just Howell, then just maybe Wilson becomes an option. 

What makes it work is how cheap Wilson will be compared to the other bridge quarterback options the Commanders could pursue. They paid veteran QB Jacoby Brissett $8 million this year to compete with Howell and back him up, which is about the going rate for this class of quarterback. Wilson would be far cheaper at $1.2 million and provides the potential for more production. 

If Harris is looking to be surprisingly competitive and juice ticket sales in his first full year in charge, adding Wilson could do the trick. He’s originally from northern Virginia and could welcome the idea of coming home in a sense. There are a lot of variables that would need to fall into place but it’s not out of the realm of possibility Wilson finds himself in burgundy in 2024. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Minnesota Vikings

I’m going to discuss both of these teams together because Wilson likely only makes sense for either of them as a Plan B. Both the Bucs and Vikings have veteran starters they feel positive about in Mayfield and Cousins. Both of those players are also not currently under contract for 2024. 

There have been several reports indicating mutual interest in a new deal for both of these teams and their quarterbacks. But until the ink goes on the contract, it’s not a certainty. Things can easily go sideways once hard financial numbers start getting thrown around that someone disagrees with. Both quarterbacks are in a little bit of a tricky spot when it comes to value, too. 

Minnesota can’t tag Cousins and prevent him from reaching the open market if they’re not able to agree on a contract. Tampa Bay could tag Mayfield but it would prevent them from tagging other pending free agents like S Antoine Winfield Jr. and cost them potentially more than $36 million in 2024. Even if Mayfield has played well this season, that’s rich. 

If either team misses out on retaining their 2023 incumbent starter, Wilson is an intriguing backup plan. Both Minnesota and Tampa Bay will likely be too low in the draft order to select a surefire replacement. But even if they do, it wouldn’t necessarily prevent them from signing Wilson. He’ll be cheap and give them the benefit of not having to play a rookie quarterback right away. 

Both teams have also shown they value remaining competitive and in the mix for a playoff berth, even as they’ve taken steps to retool their roster over the past year. Adding Wilson in theory would give either the Buccaneers or Vikings a high floor at the quarterback position while not impeding their ability to continue to work on the rest of the roster. 

While Wilson likely doesn’t want a rookie looming over his shoulder, the chance to land with a team good enough to make the playoffs should be appealing. Both Minnesota and Tampa Bay have strong receiving corps. And it’s worth pointing out Buccaneers OC Dave Canales was in Seattle for Wilson’s entire tenure, so there’s at least some level of familiarity there.