2023 NFLTR Top 100 Players: 70-61

By
Logan Ulrich
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Every summer, the NFL releases a list of the top 100 NFL players as voted on by the players, supposedly. And every summer, the results kick up their fair amount of controversy. 

So we figured we’d chime in with our take again. Last year was the first year of the NFLTR Top 100, using a rigorous process that factored in basic and advanced stats, awards, career trajectory, positional value and of course the highly scientific gut check. This year we’re back with the 2023 NFLTR Top 100 Players.

We’ll be rolling these out over the rest of the summer to pass the time until training camp, so be sure to keep an eye out for the rest of the list!

Also, here are some links to explanations for some of the non-traditional statistics used to assess players: 

70: Saints WR Chris Olave

The offensive rookie of the year race went down to the wire between Jets WR Garrett Wilson and Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker. But in my opinion, Olave was unfairly overshadowed and would be my pick going forward if I could only have one offensive player from last year’s class.

In terms of raw stats, Wilson outproduced Olave, but not by much. Olave finished with 72 catches on 119 targets for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns. Wilson had 83 catches on 147 targets for 1,103 yards and four scores as well. Though he was saddled with awful quarterback play, Wilson had the benefit of far more volume. The Jets were sixth in the NFL in passing attempts with 627 while the Saints were 27th with 512. Wilson finished a hair ahead of Olave in target share with 25 percent compared to 24 percent, but Olave also missed a couple of games and chances to put his raw stats on par with Wilson.

If you dig deeper, there’s a credible case that Olave played better in 2022. ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics put Olave seventh in overall score, headlined by an 82 open score that was eighth in the league and a catch score of 69 that was 18th — a lot better than expected considering one of the flaws on Olave’s college scouting report was his ability in contested catch situations (PFF charted him as just eight of 24 in contested catches, so there’s still room for improvement here).

Olave was a menace down the field with an average depth of target of 14.9 yards that ranked eighth in the league. It’s hard to be both an efficient receiver and a deep threat considering how naturally volatile throwing down the field is. But Olave was also sixth in the NFL in yards per route run at 2.42. He was right in the mix with some of the best receivers in football as a rookie at a position with a significant learning curve. 

69: Eagles WR DeVonta Smith

Remember all the questions about Smith’s slight build coming out of college and whether that would hold him back from NFL success? After two years and over 2,000 receiving yards, we can probably put that to rest. Smith firmly established himself as a high-end NFL receiver with 95 receptions (which led the team), 1,196 yards and seven touchdowns. He shredded man coverage according to PFF’s charting, catching 36 of 54 targets for 516 yards and five touchdowns. 

He also graded out highly in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics with an overall score of 74 that tied for 12th-best. Interestingly enough, it wasn’t Smith’s route-running that led the way in that metric, though his open score of 63 was still above average. Smith’s best asset in 2022 per ESPN was his catch score of 76, good for 14th out of 111 qualifiers. His YAC score of 56 was also top ten. More proof that despite being just 6-0 and 170 pounds soaking wet and in pads, Smith’s size isn’t a disqualification. 

68: Broncos S Justin Simmons

It’s worth acknowledging 2022 wasn’t Simmons’ best year. He missed five games due to an injury that likely still impacted him when he returned, but regardless PFF charted him with a career-high 14 missed tackles. He also gave up a career-high 82.9 completion percentage. 

Still, Simmons also tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions and forced an additional three fumbles. That’s what it looks like when one of the best players at a position has a “down” season. Simmons wasn’t immune to Denver’s struggles but he and other players on defense were also a bright spot in an otherwise dismal season. 

67: Browns DE Za’Darius Smith

There’s a little extra baggage that comes along with Smith these days. He’s got a mounting injury history, including with his back and knee. Despite a lot of on-field success he’s now going on his third team in three years and didn’t exactly leave the first two on great terms. But if you set aside all of that, a healthy and locked-in Smith remains one of the league’s best pass rushers.

The veteran got back into double-digit sack territory with 10 in 2022. PFF charted Smith with 80 total pressures that ranked fifth in the NFL, including 55 hurries which was second-most of all edge rushers. PFF also credited Smith with a 19.2 percent win rate, tied for seventh-best. 

Brandon Thorn, an NFL analyst who runs the Trench Warfare newsletter and analyzes both offensive and defensive line play, did a project called True Pressure Rate where he charted pressures and divided them into low-quality and high-quality. Smith graded out exceptionally well in this metric, earning the fourth-best overall pressure score and the fourth-best snaps to high-quality pressure ratio. 

With all that in mind, it’s easy to see why the Browns felt like trading for Smith and giving up a pick plus a decent contract was their best bet. They’ve been searching for a strong edge rusher across from DE Myles Garrett to take away attention. If Smith is healthy and locked in — admittedly not a given — they just might have one. 

66: 49ers DT Javon Hargrave

There might be more well-rounded defensive tackles than Hargrave but the eighth-year veteran can lay a legitimate claim to being one of the best pass-rushing defensive tackles in all of football. It’s a valuable skill and a big reason Hargrave signed a $20 million per year deal as a free agent this offseason to pace all non-quarterback free agents. 

Hargrave has taken off as a pass rusher over the past few years once let loose in the Eagles’ attacking defense. He had 23 sacks in three seasons in Philadelphia, going from 4.5 to 7.5 to 11 this past season. He has finished in the top 10 in ESPN’s pass rush win rate in each of the last three years, including No. 3 in 2022 and 2021. In PFF’s bookkeeping, Hargrave has topped 60 pressures the last two years and graded above 91 as a pass rusher. The 49ers are justifiably thrilled about adding him to an already ferocious defensive line. 

65: Raiders LT Kolton Miller

There were some growing pains for the Raiders and Miller earlier on in his career, as the team took a chance on him in the first round banking on his length and athleticism even though he needed time to build strength. Now Miller is the one tossing players around more often than not, as in the past two years especially he’s developed into one of the league’s better blindside protectors. He was the only tackle in 2022 to finish inside the top 10 for both ESPN’s pass block and run block win rates. 

For the past two seasons, Millers has earned grades of 85 and 84.1 from PFF which is hovering just around the top five at the position. His 33 allowed pressures in 2022 were a little on the high side but Miller also saw the sixth-most true passing sets and 23 of those pressures came on those plays. His 96.1 pass block efficiency on true pass sets was 18th out of 86 which shows he’s more than holding his own despite being asked to do more than a lot of other tackles. 

64: Cowboys CB Stephon Gilmore

After two years battling injury, Gilmore held up for over 1,000 snaps in his age-32 season for Indianapolis in 2022, missing only one game. He had PFF’s sixth-best coverage grade and was charted with 52 allowed receptions on 82 targets for 585 yards, 12 forced incompletions, two interceptions and two touchdowns allowed. In terms of reception percentage and passer rating allowed, Gilmore wasn’t otherworldly. But he was more than solid, especially considering the defense around him. 

When I think about Gilmore’s 2022 season, the lasting impression I have is Gilmore making two huge plays to seal early-season wins against the Chiefs and Broncos. Both quarterbacks tested him with the game on the line and Gilmore came up big, with a pass breakup against Kansas City and an endzone pick against Denver. 

There were some rougher moments as the season spiraled out of control for the Colts and it’s fair to say Gilmore isn’t the same player who once won defensive player of the year in 2019. That’s a long time ago in NFL terms and especially for a cornerback. It is fair to say that Gilmore remains one of the best cover corners in football, however, and still has enough gas in the tank to be an impact addition for the Cowboys. 

63: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin

McLaurin has been the model of consistency since entering the league four years ago with three 1,000-yard seasons and narrowly missing a fourth as a rookie. What makes that reliability extra impressive is it’s come amidst little to no stability on the offensive side of the football in Washington. McLaurin has caught passes from Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Carson Wentz and Sam Howell. Despite all the turbulence at quarterback, the Commanders have always been able to count on McLaurin. 

McLaurin’s no slouch as a route runner but his best abilities are just before and after the catch point. Last year, ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics had him 12th with a 77 catch score and third with a 65 yards after catch score. McLaurin ranks inside the top 20 in both metrics for combined seasons since entering the NFL in 2019. Per Pro Football Reference, McLaurin’s 24 broken tackles since entering the NFL are eighth among all wideouts and his 1,406 yards after the catch rank 13th. He’s not just compiling these numbers on short passes either, his 12.2 ADOT is higher than all but one player in the top 25 YAC-earners. 

It’s up in the air whether Howell or journeyman Jacoby Brissett will be the upgrade at quarterback the Commanders have been seeking. If Washington ever finds that player, it could be awesome for McLaurin’s production. In the meantime, he’ll continue being pretty dang good. 

https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1584260938894491648?s=20

62: Steelers S Minkah Fitzpatrick

Safeties are tough to evaluate for lists like this because there’s so much diversity in what NFL teams ask from the position that it becomes hard to compare players even though they play the same position. There are also a lot of very good players, which makes it harder to distill to a top 100 when compared against other positions. Some guys can’t help but stand out with their production and track record, however, and Fitzpatrick is one of those. There’s a compelling case for Fitzpatrick as the NFL’s best safety after he turned in another outstanding season in 2022.

Fitzpatrick tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions and added 11 pass deflections. ESPN cited him with a league-leading 28.2 percent “ballhawk rate” which appears to be picks and PDs on plays targeted. Fitzpatrick was also named the league’s best safety by other NFL evaluators in that same story and was named first-team All-Pro for the third time in 2022. 

Obviously coverage is Fitzpatrick’s big strength. PFF credited him with a passer rating allowed of 72.3 and gave him their fourth-best coverage grade among all safeties who played enough snaps to qualify. Fitzpatrick put up a career-best tackling grade in 2022 and had 17 stops, second-most in his career, but he’s not known so much for his tackling as he is for his ball skills — which is perfectly fine considering how elite those are. 

61: Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson

I’ve got to come clean here. I thought there was a good chance signing Hendrickson as a free agent in 2021 would blow up in the Bengals’ face. He was coming off a career year with 13.5 sacks for the Saints in 2020 that more than doubled his previous sack totals to that point. PFF had him with 50 total hurries, which is a good number but out of line with the gaudy sack total. Instead of regressing to the mean, Hendrickson doubled down with a career year in 2021, notching 14 sacks. Even though he only had eight sacks in 2022, this past year was arguably Hendrickson’s best season yet. 

Hendrickson finished with a pass rush win rate of 24 percent, good for fourth on ESPN’s leaderboard in 2022. In PFF’s charting, Hendrickson recorded 74 total pressures (ninth among edge rushers), including nine sacks, 19 QB hits (tied for fourth) and 46 hurries (10th). His pass rush productivity rating of 9.6 was ninth in the league and PFF gave him a win rate of 17.3 percent that tied for 12th. So even though the sack numbers weren’t great, the full picture shows Hendrickson was one of the league’s best pass rushers last season. 

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