Football is here. The weather is muggy, there are practice reports dripping with optimism from all 32 training camps and the first preseason game is just days away. There’s another tradition we have here at NFL Trade Rumors to convene the launch of a new season, and it’s a look ahead at the 14 potential playoff teams who will be competing for a Super Bowl in six months. 

This will be the sixth year doing this particular column, which is grounded in the idea that the NFL is a league built on parity. Historically there’s about 50 percent turnover in the playoff field from year to year. That was true in 2020 the first time I wrote this column and it’s still true now, even after the playoff field expanded to 14 teams. 

Typically what I do is pick six or seven teams to miss the playoffs from the previous season’s field, then pick the newcomers who will replace them. Some years are better than others — last year was one of my better efforts by hitting on the 49ers, Bears and Jaguars making it in while the Commanders, Bucs and Vikings missed. I had the Cowboys making it while the Packers missed but I also wrote that piece several weeks before the Micah Parsons trade, which was kind of a major variable for both teams. 

This year, I’m taking inspiration from ESPN’s Bill Barnwell who did a version of this column last year but with more constraints based on historical data. Rather than just picking half the teams to fall off, this time I have more specific criteria to hit: 

Constraints

• Overall retention: eight teams from last year’s field
• Four repeat division winners, one more to qualify as wildcard, three to miss playoffs
• Three repeat wildcards from last year’s field
• Three teams that won six or fewer games the year before 

That makes this a whole lot more interesting. Let’s get right to it. 

2025 NFL Playoff Field
Seed	AFC	NFC
1	Broncos	Seahawks
2	Patriots	Bears
3	Jaguars	Eagles
4	Steelers	Panthers
5	Texans	Rams
6	Bills	49ers
7	Chargers	Packers

2026 Playoff Predictions

AFC East

• Champ: Bills
• Repeat: Patriots

Once again, it feels like the AFC East is going to be a two-team race between Buffalo and New England with the Dolphins and Jets apparently focused more on 2027 and beyond than 2026. The Patriots won two more games than the Bills last year thanks to an MVP-caliber season from QB Drake Maye and a big shot of juice from HC Mike Vrabel. 

As AFC champions and Super Bowl runner-ups, however, they’ve got a big target on their backs heading into this year. The Super Bowl hangover is a real challenge, too. The Patriots played a full month more than most of their competition this season, and their head coach had a, let’s just say, turbulent offseason.  

The Bills have their own share of questions as they transition from 10 years under former HC Sean McDermott to new leadership. First-time HC Joe Brady is at least a familiar face and should keep the system and personnel largely in place around QB Josh Allen. Defensively, the Bills are implementing a different scheme under new DC Jim Leonhard, one that will resemble the Broncos and Ravens units. I’m bullish on Leonhard as a defensive architect, and I think the fact that the Bills are such a veteran, player-led team will help smooth out any bumps for Brady and Leonhard as first-timers. 

And of course, Allen is one of the three best players in the sport. That alone gives the Bills an incredibly high floor. 

The Patriots have their own high-end quarterback in Maye and he’s ultimately the biggest reason I lean against New England missing the playoff field in 2026. They’ve improved his protection and his receiving corps by trading for WR A.J. Brown, so he should continue to excel even if history suggests his gaudy passing totals from last year should regress to the mean somewhat. New England has some questions on defense at edge rusher specifically but there’s still a lot of talent overall and Vrabel helps raise the floor on that side of the ball. I also think the average NFL fan is going to be much more familiar with DC Zak Kuhr after this season. 

Still, the AFC is so competitive that it’s hard to guarantee the Patriots advancing out of the field for the wild card slots if they don’t win their division. They’re competing against a lot of other quality squads if they don’t beat Buffalo. 

AFC North

• Champ: Ravens
• Wild card: Bengals
• Out: Steelers

If not for a missed field goal from Ravens K Tyler Loop, it would have been the Ravens representing the AFC North instead of the Steelers in last year’s postseason. The margins between the two teams were razor thin. The Bengals made a late charge but yet another injury for QB Joe Burrow kneecapped their season before it ever really got off the ground. 

Looking ahead, the Steelers are probably about the same level even if there are huge changes afoot. New HC Mike McCarthy takes over after nearly two decades of Mike Tomlin roaming the sidelines in Pittsburgh. He’s the first-ever offensive-minded head coach in the modern era for the Steelers and probably the most accomplished play-caller they’ve ever had on that side of the ball. New DC Patrick Graham also might be the most creative defensive coach the Steelers have had since Dick LeBeau. It’s a veteran-heavy roster, led of course by QB Aaron Rodgers in his swan song. Barring injuries, the floor for this Steelers team ought to remain high. 

The challenge will be the rest of the division might have considerably higher ceilings. Baltimore and Cincinnati feature MVP-caliber quarterbacks in the prime of their careers. Lamar Jackson will be adjusting to a new head coach and offensive coordinator, but HC Jesse Minter has been running one of the league’s better defensive units with the Chargers for two years and was with the Ravens before that. New OC Declan Doyle is a budding branch off the Ben Johnson/Sean Payton tree. Injuries have been the only thing to really slow Jackson down, including last season. The Ravens are a consistently well-run organization with a pipeline of talent and a high floor. A healthy Jackson is the factor that could take them over the top. 

Burrow’s battled injuries but even in 2024 when he was healthy for the whole season, the defense let him down. Cincinnati is feeling the urgency to keep Burrow’s eyes from wandering, and the coaching staff/front office is feeling heat from a three-year playoff drought despite a potential Hall of Fame-level talent under center. That was reflected in how they attacked reinforcing the defense, trading the No. 10 overall pick for DT Dexter Lawrence in a very un-Bengals move. They were active in free agency and the draft, too. 

I’m still skeptical about DC Al Golden’s credentials as an NFL defensive boss and am curious to see how much the Bengals actually improve after ranking 30th in scoring and 31st in total defense. But as long as they can get close-ish to league average and Burrow stays healthy, the Bengals should have the firepower to end their postseason drought. They certainly have the motivation. 

AFC South

• Champ: Texans
• Out: Jaguars

I really wasn’t sure what to do with the AFC South. The Texans, Colts and Titans all have their fair share of warts. I like the Jaguars the most out of the four teams here but under the historical constraints I’ve given myself, I have to pick three division winners to get bounced. It’s tough to project a step back for a team that looked like an ascending franchise, but it’s a cutthroat league. The Ravens, Lions and Chiefs had double-digit projected win totals from sportsbooks at this time last year and all three missed the cut. 

Injuries are the great equalizer and it’s worth noting Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence got beat up a lot from 2023-2024, including missing seven games. The dropoff from him to backup QB Nick Mullens is steep. Regression could hit in other ways, too. Jacksonville has a first-place schedule instead of third-place, meaning games against the Patriots, Broncos and Bears instead of the Panthers, Jets and Bengals in 2025. They were 6-2 in close games, too, and those historically tend to even out to 50-50 propositions over time. 

The rest of the division and the conference could just be better, too. The Texans were neck-and-neck with Jacksonville last year and advanced further in the postseason. The Colts were vying for the No. 1 seed in the AFC before QB Daniel Jones’ injury, and there are a handful of other AFC teams who are bringing back healthy quarterbacks. Even the Titans could take a dramatic step forward with a new coaching staff, as HC Robert Saleh and OC Brian Daboll have proven resumes. 

There’s some trendy, dark-horse buzz for Houston as a Super Bowl contender, but I’m just not sure I can quite get behind it. The defense is truly ferocious and capable of reaching that rare level where it’s good enough to fuel a Super Bowl run if it gets just enough support from the offense. Last winter it didn’t, as QB C.J. Stroud melted down in the playoffs. 

The narrative has swung pretty far against Stroud after his terrific debut in 2023. I’m not that bearish on the former No. 2 pick, as I think he still can be a solid, productive quarterback. I’m not sure the offensive system is the best fit for him right now. The Texans want to be a smashmouth offense but the offensive line renovation to support that has been slower than a government contract job and is going on Year 3. They’re going to ask a lot from RB David Montgomery, who checks the physicality box in a big way but isn’t the most explosive runner. 

With how good Houston’s defense should be, a ball-control, smashmouth offense can definitely be a winning recipe — at least enough to win the AFC South. But until I see proof that this offense can be more dynamic instead of plodding like it was last year, I can’t get on the Super Bowl bandwagon. 

AFC West

• Champ: Broncos
• Wild card: Chiefs
• Out: Chargers

There are tell-tale signs of potential regression when doing an exercise like this. Good luck with injuries is one, as that’s rarely a consistent feature year over year. Record in close games is another. Denver trips both of those red flags. They were one of the healthier teams in football last year until losing QB Bo Nix right before the AFC title game, and they finished a remarkable 10-3 in one-score games. Broncos HC Sean Payton has been pretty blunt with the media and his team that that sort of good fortune can’t be relied on in 2026. 

But while the Broncos almost certainly will win fewer than 14 games this year, I think they might actually be a better team as long as they can weather the injuries. Denver wasn’t particularly active in free agency, choosing to focus on retention for the most part outside of a couple of players who they were priced out on. The exception was a big trade for WR Jaylen Waddle, giving Nix the dynamic primary target he has lacked to this point in his short NFL career. 

Nix has played two seasons and has already established himself as the kind of quarterback it’s impossible to sit on the fence about. Some of the efficiency stats don’t leap off the page, and it felt like it took him a while to get into a rhythm in the first half of games last season. There wasn’t a better passer in the fourth quarter, though, and Nix was a huge reason the Broncos had such a good record in one-score games. With Waddle coming in and Payton handing off play-calling to rising star OC Davis Webb, there’s a lot of optimism about the Broncos’ offense. 

Defensively, the Broncos threatened the NFL sack record with a jaw-dropping 68, but somehow forced just 14 turnovers. That’s an area where regression to the mean could actually help them in 2026. All told, they’re rock solid on both sides of the ball and actually remain in the best position out of all the AFC West teams this year. 

Yes, that includes the Chiefs. You won’t catch me doubting QB Patrick Mahomes and trying to write a premature autopsy of the Kansas City dynasty. I learned from watching the back half of Tom Brady’s career in New England where it felt like so many people were just waiting to bury them. Mahomes has run just half the race in the marathon that will be his pursuit of GOAT status, but he’s the same kind of athlete — the one you doubt at your peril. Watching him practice so far during camp less than nine months removed from his torn ACL, it’s clear he’ll be in the lineup Week 1 and back to his normal self before too much longer. 

It’s the rest of the roster I have some concerns about. The Chiefs reached the limits of how much they could put on Mahomes’ shoulders last year — a tough 1-9 drought in one-score games after a remarkable 12-0 run in 2024 didn’t help — and were tracking to miss the playoffs even before he was injured. The offense was stale, boring and poorly constructed (which is not something that’s been said about HC Andy Reid in a long time). The defense was a top-ten unit but overly reliant on DT Chris Jones for disruption. 

In response, the Chiefs majorly shook up the defense and made a couple of tweaks they hope will lead to better results on offense. They signed RB Kenneth Walker in free agency, giving them a dynamic backfield presence that they haven’t had in a long time. Walker instantly becomes Kansas City’s most explosive player and someone it can lean on while Mahomes regains his powers. Kansas City also brought back OC Eric Bieniemy, fresh off some time with the Bears, and the early signs from camp are that the offense will look a little more like Chicago’s than the spread approach Reid has leaned into the last two years. 

The receiving corps is largely the same, and that could be an issue. The defense also has some major turnover in the secondary and is still looking for other high-end pass rushers outside of Jones. Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo is a proven commodity and by the end of the season he’ll have this unit playing at their peak. There just could be more bumps early on than we’ve seen from his defense in a few years. Still, this is a team built to peak in December, and with the benefit of an easier schedule, I think the odds are good the Chiefs slip back into the postseason. 

For the Chargers, the road to a third straight playoff berth is going to be tougher even though expectations around the team are super high. Star QB Justin Herbert is an elite talent and the team went out and hired OC Mike McDaniel to try and maximize him. Los Angeles is also getting both starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, both probably top 10 at their position, back from injuries that sidelined them for all or most of last season. With plenty of skill position talent as well, the Chargers are a popular pick to be the potential top offense in football next year. 

That might be overshadowing some potential problems on the other side of the ball as the team lost Minter to the Ravens’ head coaching job. To replace him, they poached DC Chris O’Leary from Western Michigan, which is a huge jump in competition. O’Leary was the secondary coach for the Chargers a few years ago, so he’s not an unknown quantity, but regardless he has big shoes to fill. 

The personnel is largely the same and the Chargers have finished No. 1 and No. 9 in scoring defense the past two years. But defensive performance is harder to maintain year over year because it’s so health-contingent, and Chargers fans are well aware how fraught it is to bank on good health. Los Angeles didn’t have the same extreme results in close games as the Broncos, but their 6-2 record in one-score contests is also vulnerable to regression. 

NFC East

• Champ: Eagles
• Wild card: Cowboys

The ceiling for the Eagles in 2026 is going to be determined by new OC Sean Mannion, a 34-year-old former journeyman quarterback who was still bouncing around the league as recently as 2023. He’s installing a version of the Shanahan/McVay offense, and his success plus how well that meshes with players like QB Jalen Hurts are the two biggest X-factors for Philadelphia’s season. 

But what gives the Eagles an incredibly high floor and makes them a favorite to retain the NFC East crown, in my view, is their defense. They have finished No. 2 and No. 5 in scoring defense in the last two seasons under DC Vic Fangio, then went out and got appreciable upgrades this offseason at cornerback (Riq Woolen) and edge rusher (Jonathan Greenard). Philadelphia should once again be a top-five defense and could push for the No. 1 spot. 

I’m excited about the Cowboys, too. The matchups between the Dallas offense and Philadelphia defense will be appointment viewing this year. The whole core of the group is back with WR George Pickens on the franchise tag, giving Cowboys QB Dak Prescott two legit No. 1 wideouts to throw to along with CeeDee Lamb. I thought Cowboys HC Brian Schottenheimer did pretty well, but it makes life as a play-caller a lot easier when you can just roll the ball out and say, “my guys are better than your guys.” 

The questions for the Cowboys are on the other side of the ball. Dallas gave up more points than any other team last year. Trading Parsons didn’t help but former DC Matt Eberflus was overmatched and the unit had deeper problems that even a midseason blockbuster trade for DT Quinnen Williams couldn’t fix. Dallas sought to improve both personnel and coaching this offseason, poaching DC Christian Parker from the Eagles and adding five new starters plus five draft picks. 

Parker especially could be an X-factor here. He’s a first-year coordinator so there’s some element of unknown to how he’ll perform. But people across the league, from Dallas to Philadelphia to other places where Parker has worked, all rave about the 34-year-old coach. This may be hype season but something about Parker feels different. Dallas might not have the horses to be a true top-10 defense but I’m confident Parker can get this group to at least league average. With the firepower the Cowboys have on offense, that should be enough to return to the playoffs. 

NFC North

• Champ: Bears
• Wild card: Lions
• Out: Packers

Last year, the Bears were one of the teams to make that leap from a six-win, bottom-10 squad to division champions and the postseason. The biggest difference was new HC Ben Johnson, who helped QB Caleb Williams look like the elite prospect he was billed as when Chicago took him No. 1 overall in 2024. This was Johnson’s fourth year running an NFL offense and the results have been exceptional.

Year	Total Offense	Scoring	Team
2022	No. 4	No. 5	DET
2023	No. 3	No. 5	DET
2024	No. 2	No. 1	DET
2025	No. 6	No. 9	CHI

 

A play-calling head coach that gives a team a real, consistent schematic advantage is one of the biggest edges an NFL team can find, short of a franchise quarterback. Pair them together, and the possibilities are nearly limitless. The Bears were a surprise team last season but they’re not a fluke — they’re here to stay. Williams still has parts of his game to refine, however the talent is undeniable and Johnson is the type of maniacally competitive and detail-oriented coach who can get the best out of Williams. 

The offense is well-constructed and loaded with talent. The defense has some pieces and a solid defensive coordinator in Dennis Allen, who ran a unit that was top-10 or borderline for seven straight years with the Saints. If I were GM Ryan Poles, I’d be trying like the dickens to get a high-end pass rusher, because that’s really the last major question about this roster. 

Still, the rest of the NFC North isn’t going to roll over. It’s looking like one of the most competitive divisions in football yet again, and I think the Lions could give the Bears a real run as they look to repeat. Detroit may have finished 9-8 and out of the playoffs, but you wouldn’t have known it looking at some of their other numbers. The Lions’ +68 scoring differential was the third-best mark in the NFC by a decent margin. Despite losing Johnson as the play-caller and demoting his replacement midway through the season, the Lions still finished as a top-five offense for the fourth straight year. 

The injury bug bit the defense hard again despite a lot of optimism to start the season. The Lions beat the Cowboys in a shootout to move to 8-5 at the start of December, then proceeded to lose three straight to the Rams, Steelers and Vikings. That slump killed their season. 

There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about a rebound, though. The core of the offense remains in place, with the Lions revamping parts of the offensive line after running the ball became a little bit of a struggle. New OC Drew Petzing didn’t arrive with a lot of fanfare after the Cardinals parted ways with him and the rest of the coaching staff after three seasons, but he’s an upgrade over former OC John Morton and a perfect fit with the team’s philosophy. The defense has some talent, too, particularly DE Aidan Hutchinson, and at some point Detroit’s rotten injury luck has to get better (right?). 

The Lions also get the benefit of a much easier schedule thanks to technically finishing fourth in the NFC North even at 9-8. The whole division will play the AFC East and NFC South, but the Lions get the Cardinals, Titans and Giants instead of the more established teams at the top of those divisions. Combine that with a 2-5 record in one-score games that should regress back to the mean, and things are looking up for the Lions in 2026. 

Because it’s a zero-sum league, that means it will be harder for Detroit’s fellow NFC North competitors, including the Packers. Green Bay has made the playoffs three straight seasons, all as the No. 7 seed. That stretch coincides with the shift to QB Jordan Love as the starter, and with an overall youth movement that has made the Packers one of the younger teams in the league. All of that young talent should be coming into its own right now, and we’ve seen a similar model with a team like the Seahawks that went from consistent playoff bubble team to Super Bowl champion. 

However, there are some underlying issues the Packers will have to overcome besides just a tough division. Parsons was everything the team hoped for when it made the trade, but he tore his ACL in December and will miss the first month-and-a-half of the season. Even after he returns, it’s fair to expect him to be working his way back to 100 percent. The Packers also moved on from veteran OLB Rashan Gary this offseason, so they are putting a lot on an unproven batch of youngsters to hold down the fort while Parsons recovers. 

Green Bay’s schedule to start the season is challenging and slip-ups could be costly down the road. They start with back-to-back road games against the Vikings and Jets, then go into a short-week home opener against the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. They’re back on the road in Florida against the Buccaneers, then host the Bears and Cowboys before their third divisional game against the Lions. Those last three games are when Parsons’ window to return should open. 

In addition to the pass rush, the Packers have roster questions at cornerback, receiver and offensive line where they lost notable starters to free agency and have younger options who have been developing in the pipeline. This is how the Packers build their team and they’ve had a lot of success with it. It does inject some more uncertainty into their outlook, though. They could take that big step forward and become a legitimate Super Bowl contender — or they could miss the playoffs entirely. 

Frankly if the NFL hadn’t switched to a 12-team playoff field, the Packers would be working to snap a four-year playoff drought right now. The margins in the NFC North have been razor thin. Every team in the division finished with a winning record last season. In 2024, the Lions, Vikings and Packers all had double-digit wins. It was relatively close again in 2023 with Minnesota and Chicago at 7-10, the Packers at 9-8 and the Lions at 12-5. 

Expect more of the same in 2026. 

NFC South

• Champ: Saints
• Out: Panthers

Fortunately for the four teams in the NFC South, someone HAS to win the division and earn a playoff berth. Last year, that was the Panthers who, despite backing into the dance at 8-9, managed to turn themselves into a feel-good story with their first home playoff game in a decade and by giving the Rams everything they could handle. As a long-suffering fan who roots for Carolina in my personal time and got to attend this game, it was pretty great. 

Unfortunately the football omens do not spell good portents for the Panthers in 2026. They had a -69 scoring differential last year — by far the worst of any team in the field and the fourth-worst in the modern era. They had the lead for just 178 of their 1,011 snaps on the season. Carolina went 7-3 in one-score games during the regular season, another red flag for regression. They get a first-place schedule in 2026 which means they draw the Seahawks, Broncos and Eagles. 

On top of all that, they’re already making a run at the most injured team in the league. Carolina knew back in January it wouldn’t have LT Ikem Ekwonu for most of this season and that informed the selection of first-round OT Monroe Freeling. But before camp even opened, they had lost RT Taylor Moton (blood clots) and DT Tershawn Wharton (neck) to issues that would keep them out into the regular season. In their first practice of camp, OLB Nic Scourton went down with a torn ACL and a week or so later they lost third-round WR Chris Brazzell II with a season-ending knee injury. 

That’s five starters down before the team even got out of July. Carolina is better equipped to handle losing two starting tackles than most teams but the losses of Scourton and Brazzell really hurt. Scourton was expected to be a Year 2 breakout and boost a pass rush that’s been anemic, while Brazzell was an immensely talented rookie who added a dimension to the receiving corps it didn’t have. 

It’s a shame, because these are severe headwinds that threaten to erode some real progress the Panthers seem to have made. They were active in free agency trying to improve the defense and there’s been some early positive buzz about QB Bryce Young in camp, who needs a big fourth season as he seeks to establish himself as an NFL starter. If there’s hope for the Panthers, it lies in Young making a huge step forward and playing like the guy Carolina thought it was getting with the No. 1 pick. The rest of the NFC South is unlikely to create much distance from them either. 

The Saints could be an exception. New Orleans had its hand forced on tearing down the roster when QB Derek Carr hurt his shoulder last offseason, and in the first half of the year the Saints seemed like a contender for the No. 1 pick. But they flipped a switch after inserting 2025 second-round QB Tyler Shough into the lineup around midseason. The Saints went on a 5-4 run to end the season and Shough finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting with a late charge. 

Nothing breeds optimism like a promising young quarterback, though this upcoming season will tell a lot about what’s real and what’s fluff with Shough. The Saints worked hard to improve his supporting cast on offense, adding RB Travis Etienne, G David Edwards and first-round WR Jordyn Tyson. On the other side of the ball, DC Brandon Staley is starting to build a resume for another shot as a head man. New Orleans is still adding pieces to the defense but you can tell they’re well coached and they finished strong, notching a positive EPA in six of the final seven games to end the year. 

Next offseason is truly when the Saints can pour gasoline on their rebuild because they won’t be underwater on the salary cap before the league year even starts, but they might have enough on the roster already to make a strong push for the division if Shough is not fools gold. 

NFC West

• Champ: Seahawks
• Wild card: Rams
• Out: 49ers

The Rams have rightfully generated a ton of headlines this offseason. They were a play or two away from getting past the Seahawks for the division title and a spot in the Super Bowl last year, then they went out and added a future Hall of Fame pass rusher fresh off of breaking the NFL sack record in Myles Garrett. That overshadowed another huge trade for CB Trent McDuffie to address the secondary, the weakest position on last year’s team, and they still have HC Sean McVay, QB Matthew Stafford, WR Puka Nacua and a host of others. 

Oh yeah, and Aaron Donald might be coming out of retirement to chase quarterbacks with Garrett? Hollywood is already watching what’s shaking out in its own backyard with bated breath. 

It’s no wonder the Super Bowl champion Seahawks feel a little under the radar coming into this season. They shouldn’t be, though. Coming out of that dominant title win in February, Seattle felt incredibly well-positioned to pull off the repeat. The engine of this team was the defense and nearly all of the key contributors on that side of the ball will be back in 2026. Most importantly, HC Mike Macdonald is proving himself to be a viable defensive foil to the McVays and Shanahans of the world, and he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. 

For as much hype as the Rams are getting, too, no team is invincible. Losing a starting quarterback to injury will take the wind out of the sails for most franchises, and while Stafford was healthy all last year, the 38-year-old had severe back problems this time last year that were casting doubt on the whole season. McVay’s teams have also historically been sensitive to the quality of their offensive line and the depth there for Los Angeles is as weak as it’s been in a while. They can’t just hope for good health either; they probably are losing LT Alaric Jackson to at least a six-game suspension at some point, so that depth will be tested if it’s not improved. 

Seattle’s got potential issues, too. They lost former OC Klint Kubiak to the Raiders’ head coaching vacancy and he was an absolutely vital piece of the puzzle, helping mastermind a career-year out of QB Sam Darnold and an Offensive Player of the Year season from WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The scheme will stay the same under new OC Brian Fleury but difference-making offensive coordinators are hard to find and the odds say Fleury is going to be a downgrade. The Seahawks also had to replace a few free agent defections, most notably Walker on offense who was the engine for their running game. 

Still, both of these two teams are popular Super Bowl picks for a reason and a cut above the 49ers going into this year. San Francisco is an established organization that’s had a lot of success in the last decade. The 49ers won 12 games last year in what was supposed to be a reset year, and they did it despite losing QB Brock Purdy for a stretch due to a turf toe injury. 

However, they won’t have the same advantage of an easy schedule and the division didn’t get any easier. The 49ers have tended to be one of the most snakebitten teams in recent years, and the hits started coming even before training camp this year. Former first-round WR Ricky Pearsall was unexpectedly shuttered for the year due to surgery needed to repair a PCL injury that held him back for most of last year. A few other expected starters are already banged up, and most of the core players on this team are nearly 30 or on the other side of that milestone. 

But the real stone that might set off an avalanche is the car accident HC Kyle Shanahan was involved in last month. It wasn’t reported for almost two weeks, but it was a serious wreck that left Shanahan badly damaged, including broken ribs, a broken wrist, a broken nose, facial lacerations and a concussion. The latter injury was bad enough that Shanahan is still having concussion symptoms weeks later and is not serving as the active head coach. 

The team says Shanahan is expected to be recovered in time for the opener, and he has more than a month to clear whatever “concussion protocol” exists for coaches. But I don’t think a brain injury for a 46-year-old man who has made a living by being sharper than all of his competitors is getting enough attention as a concern for the 49ers. For starters, not having Shanahan out setting the tone and sharpening the team in the beginning stages of camp is a loss for everyone in San Francisco. It also puts Shanahan behind. It’s tough for players to catch up and get on a moving train once things get going. That is either orders of magnitude worse for a coach, or it forces the whole train to stop while the other 31 steam on down the tracks. 

Secondly, concussion symptoms are debilitating and finicky, particularly when they linger like Shanahan’s apparently have. Doctors have already told Shanahan how long it will take for his ribs, his wrist and his nose to heal. There’s no playbook like that for brain injuries. They take as long as they take to heal, and everyone is different. The only effective cure is rest, time and avoiding triggers like screens, stress, lack of sleep and over-taxing the brain. 

That trigger list unfortunately also can be read as a list of occupational hazards for life as an NFL coach. Shanahan is going to have to navigate a minefield to recover and get back to 100 percent, and it’s not something he can rush. But the longer he recovers, the more it puts him and the team behind. It’s a nasty catch-22. 

Injuries are a part of life in the NFL, but I can’t recall another situation like this where an injury to a coach had such huge implications for the upcoming season. Shanahan is a difference-maker for the 49ers as a problem-solver and a dynamic offensive play-caller. More than any player on the field, Shanahan is the face of the franchise, the person whose identity is most intertwined with the team’s. 

If he’s not himself this year, how could that not have a massive impact?