With a 17-game schedule, four games no longer neatly describes a quarter of the season. Everything was easier when you had a nice even number to divide by. That’s the real crime with a 17-game season. Nothing else.

Nonetheless, four games in is roughly a quarter of the season, and it’s time to update our preseason takes. Some of my takes have aged well: I was very in on the Ravens, Vikings, and Cowboys. On the other hand, I was also bullish on the Texans and Chargers. A lot of preseason takes are getting upended, so let me dispel a few more.

Without further ado, let’s get to the power rankings:

Tier 1: Super Bowl Contenders

1 — San Francisco 49ers (4-0, UP 2)

Last week: W 24-14 vs. Denver Broncos

The 49ers offense is a thing of beauty right now, but I want to talk about their defense. Despite key defensive line injuries thinning out an already weak group, San Francisco ranks seventh in total defense and third in scoring defense. Their advanced metrics are a little less rosy, so some regression to the mean might be coming. But I think the 49ers can weather that given their explosive offense, and after a tough trip to Seattle next week, their schedule eases up as well.

2 — Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, UP 4)

Last week: W 22-17 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Are the Jaguars the team to beat in the AFC? You could certainly make that case after they took down yet another contender in the Bengals. Jags QB Trevor Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career and this defense hasn’t lost a step from last season. Jacksonville has a potentially season-defining stretch coming up, facing the Eagles, Texans, Colts, and Ravens in their next four games. Going 3-1 in that stretch would put the Jags in firm contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

3 — Buffalo Bills (3-1, DOWN 2)

Last week: L 26-29 vs. New England Patriots

A late Josh Allen interception cost the Bills the game, but I’m not too worried coming out of it. For as good as Buffalo’s defensive line looked early this season, this is still a spotty defense. The Bills will go as far as Allen can carry them, for better or worse. That’s been true in the past, though, and it hasn’t worked out in the playoffs to this point in Allen’s career. Is this team any different than the Bills teams of recent years? Only time will tell.

4 — Los Angeles Rams (2-2, —)

Last week: W 24-20 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Much has been made about the Rams’ struggles offensively, and they were…not good on that side of the ball before a pair of late touchdown drives allowed them to steal this road win. But even without three of their best players in ED Myles Garrett, DT Aaron Donald, and CB Jaylen Watson, Los Angeles is excelling on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams rank second in total defense, third in EPA per play allowed, sixth in defensive success rate, first in PFF defensive grade, and ninth in scoring defense. The trade for CB Trent McDuffie is paying off and this defense is buying time for the offense to find its legs.

5 — Baltimore Ravens (3-1, —)

Last week: W 24-18 vs. Tennessee Titans

The final score here is a little deceptive, as the Ravens got up three scores in the first half before QB Lamar Jackson suffered an ankle injury on the final offensive snap of the half. He was held out the rest of the game for seemingly precautionary reasons, and the Titans didn’t have enough juice to close the gap. Hopefully Jackson is a full go next week, as Baltimore is shaping up to be one the top contenders in the AFC.

6 — Seattle Seahawks (3-1, DOWN 4)

Last week: W 30-23 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Right now, Sam Darnold is playing worse than he has since maybe his Jets days. He led the league in turnovers in the regular season last year, but he made up for it with huge plays to more than balance it out. So far this season, he’s kept up with the turnovers, but the big plays have evaporated. Darnold threw for just 168 yards against the Chargers, but the Seahawks forced four turnovers of their own to build a lead.

Tier 2: Playoff Contenders

7 — Chicago Bears (3-1, UP 1)

Last week: W 23-12 vs. New York Jets

Let’s give some credit to Chicago’s defense. Since that abysmal Week 1 performance against the surging Panthers, the Bears have allowed 22 total points. Rookies Dillon Thieneman and Malik Muhammad have played excellent football at key positions in the secondary, helping Chicago weather the storm of injuries they’ve suffered on that side of the ball. Winning games without star QB Caleb Williams buys more time for him to rest and get fully healthy, too, rather than risking reinjury by forcing him back into the lineup too soon.

8 — Minnesota Vikings (4-0, DOWN 1)

Last week: W 15-10 vs. Miami Dolphins

The Vikings have a real problem on offense. Their elite defense carried them to a so-far undefeated record, but Minnesota ranks 31st in offensive success rate and total offense. QB Kyler Murray, back from an early-season concussion, just hasn’t settled in yet. The Vikings will win a lot of games behind this defense, but if playoff success is to accompany it, they need production from their offense. Getting All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson back soon should help.

9 — Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, UP 1)

Last week: W 30-27 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Kenneth Walker III is on pace to break the single-season rushing record. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes didn’t even play all that well, completing just 50 percent of his passes, and it didn’t matter because Walker ran for 177 on just 21 carries. His efficiency and explosiveness is unmatched and there isn’t a better back in the NFL right now. Injuries to Kansas City’s receivers keep piling up, but their offense runs through Walker.

10 — Denver Broncos (2-2, UP 1)

Last week: L 14-24 vs. San Francisco 49ers

For a moment, it looked like the Broncos might be on the verge of pulling out yet another come-from-behind last-second win. But the 49ers slammed the door on that with an impressive game-sealing drive of their own. The addition of WR Jaylen Waddle hasn’t made this offense any more consistent, though Waddle himself looks great. On the other hand, the four teams the Broncos have played have a combined total of three losses — and two of those are to the Broncos themselves (the other when two of those teams played each other). Denver faced an absolute gauntlet to open the season, and coming out 2-2 puts them in a great position.

11 — Dallas Cowboys (2-2, UP 2)

Last week: W 34-30 vs. Houston Texans

Have a day, CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys’ top receiver caught 17 passes, a franchise record in a single game, for 189 yards and a touchdown. He was uncoverable, torching Houston’s zone defense and getting open whenever he wanted to. Looking ahead, Dallas will be favored in their next three games, and could go on a bit of a run to establish themselves as true contenders in the NFC.

12 — Cincinnati Bengals (2-2, DOWN 3)

Last week: L 17-22 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincy battled the Jaguars tough, but when All-Pro WR Ja’Marr Chase left the game after a particularly vicious facemask tackle, this offense just didn’t pack the same punch. Bengals QB Joe Burrow threw 54 passes on Sunday, completing 39 for 428 yards, but drives stalled too often against a “bend but don’t break” Jaguars defense. I expect the Bengals will be favored in seven of their next eight games, so they could go on a real run here if they can get out of this offensive funk.

13 — New England Patriots (2-2, UP 4)

Last week: W 29-26 vs. Buffalo Bills

Outside of a wild tipped interception, Patriots QB Drake Maye caught the good end of variance in this game. He got lucky on a few would-be fumbles and two of his touchdown passes were spectacular catches by his receiver. But on the whole, this was an important bounce-back game for Maye. He excelled against the blitz in this game and didn’t make many costly mistakes, something that plagued him in New England’s first three games.

Tier 3: Playoff Hopefuls

14 — Houston Texans (0-4, DOWN 2)

Last week: L 30-34 vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Texans have been right there in all but one of their games this season. But 0-4 is 0-4, no matter how close they were to a hypothetical 3-1 record. Oddly enough, Houston should blame their defense for this start instead of their offense. Outside of a six-point Week 2 outing without top wideout Nico Collins, the Texans have scored 78 points across their other three games, usually more than enough to win all three with their vaunted defense. The Texans should be favored in four of their next five games, so maybe they can still salvage their season yet.

15 — Las Vegas Raiders (3-1, UP 4)

Last week: L 27-30 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

If not for a fumbled kickoff late in the fourth quarter, the Raiders easily could’ve won this game. Even with that, they had a chance on an onside kick late. This is clearly a different Las Vegas team, one that’s probably still a year away from serious contention. But they shouldn’t be taken lightly in the wildcard picture right now, not with that way this offense is humming and this defense is making an impact.

16 — Carolina Panthers (2-2, UP 5)

Last week: W 32-26 vs. Detroit Lions

Bryce Young is for real. The fourth-year Panthers quarterback took some time to adjust to the league but right now, he’s playing like one of the best quarterbacks in pro football. It might not lead to consistent winning this year given the slew of injuries at basically every other position, but Carolina will always have a chance with Young under center. He’s up to 1,268 yards and nine touchdowns already.

17 — Detroit Lions (2-2, DOWN 2)

Last week: L 26-32 vs. Carolina Panthers

Detroit’s offense is far from perfect, but it’s hard for them to win games with a defense this atrocious. At this point, I’m not even sure getting S Brian Branch back from injury will make a significant difference. The Lions can’t cover anybody, can’t reliably stop the run, and outside of Aidan Hutchinson, can’t apply pressure to the quarterback. That’s pretty much all of the defense.

18 — Indianapolis Colts (2-2, DOWN 2)

Last week: W 30-13 vs. Washington Commanders

It was an ugly performance in many ways, but the Colts found a way to get it done against the Commanders and even their record. After allowing the second-most yards through their first two games in NFL history, Indy’s defense looks worlds better over the last two. It would still be a stretch to say the Colts have a good defense, but they might have one approaching league average. If so, they could hang around in the playoff discussion for a while longer.

19 — Philadelphia Eagles (2-2, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 20-24 vs. Los Angeles Rams

This offense isn’t working. The Much-maligned Eagles defense kept them in this game, but Philly couldn’t do anything on offense for most of the game, outside of a few short fields. It’s difficult to pin the blame on one person, though missing top wideout DeVonta Smith was a factor against the Rams. The whole operation is broken, and with the Jaguars, Panthers, and Cowboys up next on the schedule, this could turn ugly quickly without improvement.

20 — Washington Commanders (1-3, —)

Last week: L 13-30 vs. Indianapolis Colts

You have to feel for Marcus Mariota. The Commanders offense was humming early with Mariota at the helm, though they failed to score a touchdown in two red zone trips. Then he sprained his MCL on a sack and the wheels fell off. Seventh-round rookie Athan Kaliakmanis had a couple of very impressive throws and big plays, but ultimately Washington was just outmatched without Mariota. The good news is that starting QB Jayden Daniels is hopeful to play in Week 5 after dislocating his elbow in Week 2.

21 — New York Giants (3-1, UP 9)

Last week: W 36-24 vs. Arizona Cardinals

Don’t try to score on the goal line late against these Giants. For the second week in a row, New York’s defense held strong in a game-winning goal line stand, sealing each win with an interception. This time, Giants CB Deonte Banks returned the pick for a touchdown, capping off an impressive victory. New York’s offense looked worlds better than it did a week ago, and this coaching staff is still talking playoff expectations.

22 — Atlanta Falcons (2-2, UP 1)

Last week: W 45-24 vs. New Orleans Saints

It’s amazing what competent quarterback play can do for a team. Michael Penix Jr. hasn’t even done anything spectacular — he threw for ___ yards against the Saints — but the Falcons look like a completely different team with him under center. All of a sudden, this defense has life, this offense is making things happen, and Bijan Robinson carves up defenses. Atlanta looked like one of the worst teams in the league through two weeks, but all of a sudden they’re competitive in the NFC South.

23 — New Orleans Saints (1-3, DOWN 9)

Last week: L 24-45 vs. Atlanta Falcons

For a time, the Saints looked like the breakout team in the NFL. They played the Lions tough in Week 1 and upset the Ravens in Week 2 before playing the Raiders tough in Week 3. It really looked like New Orleans was a young team coming into their own. That still might be true, but the Saints are farther away than many thought. They got boat-raced by the Falcons at home, and many questions still linger about how good this offense actually is and this defense has a long way to go.

Tier 4: Maybe Not Your Year

24 — Cleveland Browns (3-1, UP 5)

Last week: W 27-24 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

How about those rookies! Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion were electric in an impressive division win, combining for nine receptions for 153 yards. The Browns are starting to figure out how to best use those two in conjunction with each other, and it’s opening up the rest of Cleveland’s offense. It would be huge for the Browns if they found a pair of legit top receivers in the same draft.

25 — Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2, UP 3)

Last week: L 24-27 vs. Cleveland Browns

Aaron Rodgers and this Steelers offense continued their productive turnaround, looking a far cry from the group that couldn’t get a first down to save their life in the first two weeks. But Pittsburgh’s defense couldn’t string together stops, and they dropped a very winnable divisional game as a result. Notably, Rodgers attacked downfield more for the second week in a row. If that trend continues with success, the Steelers might be able to sustain something on offense.

26 — New York Jets (1-3, DOWN 4)

Last week: L 12-23 vs. Chicago Bears

“No such thing as moral victories” — yes, I know. But the Jets look worlds better than they did a year ago, even if Week 4 was a step back offensively. Minkah Fitzpatrick got New York’s first interception since 2024 on Sunday, and the Jets defense kept the Bears in check for most of the afternoon. Wins might still be few and far between this season, but progress is being made.

27 — Arizona Cardinals (1-3, DOWN 3)

Last week: L 24-36 vs. New York Giants

Three Jacoby Brissett interceptions were the difference in this one. The Cardinals moved the ball effectively, with RB Jeremiyah Love, WR Michael Wilson, and TE Trey McBride all having efficient days. But turnovers in key spots, including a game-sealing pick six erasing a potential go-ahead touchdown opportunity, doomed Arizona. Their schedule is about to get brutally difficult — there’s a reason the Cardinals are in contention for the No. 1 pick, even if their roster has some talent.

Tier 5: Absolutely Disgraceful

28 — Los Angeles Chargers (0-4, DOWN 3)

Last week: L 23-30 vs. Seattle Seahawks

At one point, this was a 27-6 lead for the Seahawks. The Chargers mounted a furious fourth-quarter comeback but couldn’t quite seal the deal, coming up just short and staring down the reality they’re more likely to pick in the top 10 than make the playoffs. QB Justin Herbert had his best game of the season and it wasn’t even all that good. His regression this season is a big part of why Los Angeles is falling short of expectations. Losing former DC Jesse Minter to the Ravens’ head job is a factor as well.

29 — Green Bay Packers (2-2, DOWN 3)

Last week: W 17-14 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Packers clawed their way to a victory against an undrafted rookie quarterback making his first start, but they really couldn’t have looked any worse in the process. This wounded offensive line is a complete disaster and it’s hamstringing the entire offense. At least the defense held their own, but LB Edgerrin Cooper ruptured his Achilles, which took away one of their best players. All-Pro ED Micah Parsons is at least a month away from returning still — things are going to get worse before they get better.

30 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4, DOWN 3)

Last week: L 14-17 vs. Green Bay Packers

It was a mixed debut for undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels. The offense wasn’t really any worse with him under center, at least. But that also speaks to the myriad of problems this team is facing right now that go beyond poor quarterback play. Starter Baker Mayfield will be out a good chunk of the season with his thumb injury, so the Bucs will need to ride with Daniels for the time being. It may already be too late to salvage their season.

31 — Tennessee Titans (0-4, —)

Last week: L 18-24 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Tennessee’s defense held a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens offense without a point in the second half, but couldn’t string together enough consistency of their own to pay that off. This was the breakout performance we’ve all been waiting for from No. 4 pick Carnell Tate, as the former Ohio State wide receiver paced the Titans with nine receptions for 145 yards. If Tate can continue building chemistry with second-year QB Cam Ward, the Titans might unlock their offense after all.

32 — Miami Dolphins (0-4, —)

Last week: L 10-15 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Credit to Miami’s defense, as they kept this one close. Rookies Jacob Rodriguez, Chris Johnson, and Michael Taaffe continue to impress week after week. On the other side of the ball, rookie WR Chris Bell came so close to breaking several huge plays, instead ending his day without a catch. As I keep harping on, this season is all about developing the Dolphins’ young players. That continues to trend well.