Week 1 always lies. We all know this, yet every year we write big dissertations overreacting to Week 1 performances and results. So my goal this year is to not do that. There’s some movement in my rankings, especially considering how close I thought a solid half of the teams were, but I’m not dropping any team like a stone for a disappointing result or shooting a team up for an upset win.

Because, at the end of the day, this is one game for each team. One data point. The reason Week 1 spawns so many overreactions is it’s the only data point we have so far each season. By Week 2, we have twice as much information. By Week 3, our data triples. And so on.

It’s not that Week 1 doesn’t tell us anything; it’s that we don’t know what it tells us without more information. We don’t know what trends will hold, what teams had an off week vs. which teams aren’t as good as we thought. We just don’t know what we know. Yet.

But at the same time, overreactions are fun. And we can make some educated guesses. So here are a few things that matter to me that stood out in Week 1, stuff that I think will trend through the season, briefly summarized with bullet points:

• Kenneth Walker III is the reason the Chiefs look so good. This isn’t a hot take or anything, but Kansas City had the lowest yards after contact on runs last season despite having one of the highest yards before contact averages in the league. Walker is a major game-changer.
• Jesse Minter is the real deal. The Ravens really have something in their rookie head coach.
• The Giants have real leadership. I don’t think New York will look that good all year long, but never underestimate how much better teams look when rallying behind an actually good head coach.
• There’s a tier gap in the NFC North. Consensus before the season suggested all four teams had equal(ish) claims to being the best of the group, but I think the Bears and Vikings are significantly better than the Lions and Packers.
• I’m not worried about the Rams long-term, but this is why it’s always risky to buy into heavy favorites (or any individual team above the field). Injuries change everything.
• The bottom of the league is exceptionally bad this season. We could see as many as three sub-four-win teams this year.
• The playoff race is wide, wide open. There are as many as 24 teams with playoff hopes right now, and while that number will surely shrink over the next few weeks, that’s still a lot.

That’s not everything, though. Let’s dive into the rankings:

Tier 1: Super Bowl Favorites

1 — Seattle Seahawks (1-0, UP 1)

Last week: W 13-10 vs. New England Patriots

No Sam Darnold, no problem. The Seahawks overcame the adversity of losing their starting quarterback on the first drive of the game to outlast the Patriots. Despite some new faces in the secondary, Seattle’s defense was incredible, and the Drew Lock-led offense did enough late in the game to pull out a win. A repeat title is definitely on the table with this group.

2 — Los Angeles Rams (0-1, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 7-27 vs. San Francisco 49ers

I wasn’t prepared to drop the Rams after their loss to the 49ers in Australia, despite how that game played out. As I said, Week 1 lies. Then Myles Garrett landed on injured reserve. While the Rams are optimistic he’ll only be out for the minimum four games, Los Angeles plays the Giants, Broncos, Eagles and Bills in that stretch. Starting the season 1-4 is suddenly a real possibility if the Rams don’t get right quickly.

Tier 2: Super Bowl Contenders

3 — Baltimore Ravens (1-0, UP 1)

Last week: W 41-23 vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Ravens left little doubt in a thorough drubbing of the Colts on the road. Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers and Derrick Henry all starred, and Baltimore’s offense was firing on all cylinders. Minter’s defense wasn’t perfect — the Colts had a lot of success on the ground that might’ve caused more problems in a closer game — but the pass rush won consistently and the secondary made some big plays.

4 — Buffalo Bills (1-0, UP 5)

Last week: W 36-31 vs. Houston Texans

Hot take alert: Josh Allen is good at football. The Bills quarterback supermanned his squad to a win over the vaunted Texans defense, creating big play after big play and frustrating an extremely talented unit on the other side. Offseason acquisition D.J. Moore pairs perfectly with Allen given his propensity for creating downfield action, and the Bills’ offensive line held up against that pass rush. Buffalo’s defense is still a concern, but I was impressed by their defensive line, if nothing else.

5 — Houston Texans (0-1, UP 3)

Last week: L 31-36 vs. Buffalo Bills

The Texans offense passed their first test with flying colors (at least until the final two plays). But then Josh Allen happened. Sometimes, even Houston’s defense can’t stop arguably the league’s best player, and that’s what happened on Sunday. I’m not worried about the defense at all, but I was extremely encouraged by Houston’s offense. This team has the makings of one that could play deep into January.

6 — San Francisco 49ers (1-0, UP 8)

Last week: W 27-7 vs. Los Angeles Rams

The biggest win of the week wasn’t on the scoreboard; it was the 49ers winning the “travel plans bowl” against the Rams in Australia. 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan put on a masterclass of an offensive game plan, frustrating the Rams’ hyped defensive front with quick-game concepts and field-stretching runs that kept everyone moving laterally instead of attacking downhill. San Francisco got almost anything they wanted offensively, but I was even more impressed with their defense.

Tier 3: Playoff Contenders

7 — New England Patriots (0-1, —)

Last week: L 10-13 vs. Seattle Seahawks

Of all the concerning Week 1 performances, I’m willing to chalk New England’s up to aberrations more than most. Runner-up MVP Drake Maye had three bad interceptions; otherwise, they probably win this game. He won’t do that every week. The Patriots’ pass rush was better than I expected against a pretty good Seattle offensive line, but the jury’s still out on New England’s upgraded offensive line.

8 — Cincinnati Bengals (1-0, UP 3)

Last week: W 33-27 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bengals offense didn’t have a banner day, but they won anyway. In fact, you could argue they were somewhat carried by their…defense? When was the last time we could say that? Cincinnati’s revamped defense looked the part, creating four turnovers — including a scoop-and-score fumble return touchdown. Cincy’s offensive line held up well, too, and Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will have better days ahead, make no mistake about that.

9 — Chicago Bears (1-0, UP 3)

Last week: W 59-37 vs. Carolina Panthers

I don’t care what the defense looked like — put up 59 points in an NFL game and I’ll talk about you glowingly. Caleb Williams looked like a legitimate MVP candidate, Chicago’s ground game absolutely dominated and the Bears rolled. Colston Loveland didn’t touch the football and the offense looked like this? That’s scary. Bears HC Ben Johnson said this offseason he wanted to be the best offense in the history of the league. Through one game at least, he’s ahead of schedule on that goal.

10 — Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0, UP 5)

Last week: W 34-10 vs. Cleveland Browns

The Jaguars rolled against an overmatched opponent, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Easy dubs are never easy in the NFL, but Jacksonville took care of business. Parker Washington had one of the best catches of the week, Trevor Lawrence stayed cool and collected and this defense didn’t miss a step.

11 — Los Angeles Chargers (0-1, DOWN 8)

Last week: L 14-26 vs. Arizona Cardinals

I’m not overly concerned with the Chargers’ defense. The Cardinals have an explosive offense with a lot of talent. Los Angeles’ offense, on the other hand, left a lot to be desired. When Ladd McConkey left the game, everything ground to a halt. Wide receiver depth is a real concern, as is the interior of the offensive line. The Chargers gave up a lot of interior pressure, which frustrated QB Justin Herbert all game.

12 — Philadelphia Eagles (1-0, DOWN 2)

Last week: W 24-22 vs. Washington Commanders

I’d give the Eagles a solid B for their first game. They narrowly escaped the Commanders at home, but we all know how talented Jayden Daniels is. The offense is the bigger question mark, given the pressure on it and new faces in that unit (including OC Sean Mannion). It’s not fair to judge them on one game, but their offensive line is a bigger concern than it’s been in recent years, putting more pressure on Jalen Hurts to win through the air.

13 — Kansas City Chiefs (1-0, UP 5)

Last week: W 31-10 vs. Denver Broncos

Walker had an exceptional debut. The reigning Super Bowl MVP had an incredible first outing with his new team, dominating the Broncos on the ground and fundamentally changing what Kansas City’s offense looked like. Patrick Mahomes had an up-and-down performance off his knee injury, but it didn’t matter. Not with Walker back there.

14 — Minnesota Vikings (1-0, DOWN 1)

Last week: W 39-22 vs. Green Bay Packers

After Kyler Murray took an absolutely brutal hit in the first quarter and exited with a concussion, it wasn’t looking good for the Vikings. The Packers got some explosive plays on offense and had a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Then Vikings DC Brian Flores decided he wasn’t losing this game. Minnesota’s defense cranked it up late, causing havoc on every snap and turning a double-digit deficit into a double-digit lead. If Murray can return soon (or if Carson Wentz can just be steady), Minnesota becomes a legitimate playoff threat.

15 — Dallas Cowboys (0-1, DOWN 10)

Last week: L 20-28 vs. New York Giants

This was supposed to be fixed. All offseason, we were told that new Cowboys DC Christian Parker was a revelation and, combined with their personnel upgrades, would make Dallas’ defense much more formidable. I won’t fault the Cowboys for losing to the Giants in New York on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, but the way in which it happened is deeply concerning. Blown coverages, poor tackling and lack of physicality were issues all night for Dallas. They offered zero resistance and allowed the Giants to get whatever they wanted all night long. That’s foreboding.

16 — Denver Broncos (0-1, DOWN 10)

Last week: L 10-31 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos were a major regression candidate. They won an absurd number of one-score games last year, always a red flag when it comes to repeating that performance. Not only that, but Denver had one of the highest three-and-outs rates on offense in the league. But I thought the addition of Jaylen Waddle could make up for that, make the Broncos more explosive and consistent on offense. Through one week, that didn’t happen. I expect the defense to bounce back. The offense? I don’t know.

Tier 4: Playoff Hopefuls

17 — Detroit Lions (1-0, —)

Last week: W 31-30 vs. New Orleans Saints

A comfortable win turned into a nail-biter in overtime, but a win is a win. Still, this won’t quiet any of the many concerns I had about the Lions coming into the season. Which is more reflective of Detroit: a dominant first three quarters, or an alarm-raising fourth quarter and overtime? Hard to say, but the competition is about to get stiffer.

18 — Washington Commanders (0-1, UP 3)

Last week: L 22-24 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

All in all, it was an encouraging start for the Commanders. They didn’t get the win, but I thought Washington’s defense acquitted itself well. Even if there are lingering questions about the offensive line, we know what this offense can do. It’s the defense that was a bigger concern. While it was far from perfect, Washington’s defense kept them in the game at times. We’ll see if they can keep that up.

19 — New Orleans Saints (0-1, UP 1)

Last week: L 30-31 vs. Detroit Lions

The monumental comeback came up one play short, but that was a hell of an effort from this young Saints team. The defense held up better than I expected and second-year QB Tyler Shough found his rhythm late in the game. The early turnovers were bad, but fixable. This is an ascending team, and this offense in particular could be scary good once first-round WR Jordyn Tyson returns from his hamstring injury. You probably don’t want Shough throwing 56 passes a game, though.

20 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1, UP 2)

Last week: L 27-33 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

If it weren’t for four lost fumbles, the Bucs would’ve won in Cincinnati. That’s a big if, I realize, but it’s also ridiculously bad fumble luck. On paper, Tampa Bay’s cornerbacks were their biggest concern, and they held Chase to just two catches for 12 yards. If they get that kind of performance from their secondary this year, the Bucs might be an actual playoff threat, instead of merely clawing out of a weak NFC South.

21 — Indianapolis Colts (0-1, DOWN 5)

Last week: L 23-41 vs. Baltimore Ravens

That was as bad a Week 1 performance as Indy could’ve possibly had. Turnovers and poor tackling doomed them early, as they got down by too much in the first half to lean on the ground game that found success against Baltimore’s front. The Colts defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed, as the saying goes, letting Ravens skill players run free snap after snap. There’s a lot of pressure on this team, and they’d better find answers quickly.

22 — Green Bay Packers (0-1, DOWN 3)

Last week: L 22-39 vs. Minnesota Vikings

What happened in that fourth quarter? After building a sizable lead, the Packers melted down in wild fashion. Green Bay’s offensive line was a problem all game long and the defense couldn’t stop the run or pass late in the game. Jordan Love played a phenomenal game despite being pressured on 70 percent of his dropbacks. 70 percent! Most offenses can’t function at all with that kind of pressure, but Love put up 22 points. He needs more help around him.

23 — New York Giants (1-0, UP 2)

Last week: W 28-20 vs. Dallas Cowboys

It was a big night for New York, and the Giants delivered. They controlled the game throughout, running the ball well, converting short-yardage at will, and second-year QB Jaxson Dart made some big plays when he needed to. Perhaps more impressively, the Giants held up well against the Cowboys’ insane wide receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, holding them in check enough to stall Dallas’ offense.

24 — Carolina Panthers (0-1, —)

Last week: L 37-59 vs. Chicago Bears

It’s tough to look for positives after giving up 59 points, but this was a legitimately encouraging performance from Carolina’s offense. Bryce Young had maybe his best game as a pro, dicing up the Bears’ zone defense looks and creating a bunch of explosive plays. The Panthers also got a lot done on the ground, which bodes well for their balance on offense moving forward. If they get anything at all from their defense this year, they could contend in the NFC South.

25 — Arizona Cardinals (1-0, UP 2)

Last week: W 26-14 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

I said before the season I thought the Cardinals would surprise some teams. I didn’t expect to be vindicated quite that quickly, though. We know what Arizona can be on offense — but that defense looked like a transformed unit. A healthy CB Will Johnson changes this secondary, and if they can get any sort of pass rush up front, there might be a real ceiling here. In particular, second-year ED Jordan Burch had some flashy moments.

Tier 5: Better Luck Next Year

26 — Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0, DOWN 3)

Last week: W 20-13 vs. Atlanta Falcons

No team impressed me less in a win than the Steelers. It took a T.J. Watt pick-six to beat a Falcons team starting their third-string quarterback. Pittsburgh’s offense was as uninspiring as ever, with little consistent downfield production in the passing game. This defense will continue to produce, but they’ll need a lot more from the offense to beat the tougher teams on their schedule.

27 — Atlanta Falcons (0-1, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 13-20 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Falcons’ passing game was practically non-existent. Bijan Robinson did all he could, but Atlanta had a third-string quarterback and an undermanned defense out there. Sounds like the Falcons are hopeful Michael Penix Jr. can play in Week 2, which would be huge. If he can take advantage of Kyle Pitts and Drake London, there might be hope after all for an Atlanta team that held up better in the trenches than I expected.

28 — New York Jets (1-0, —)

Last week: W 23-10 vs. Tennessee Titans

Now that looked like a competent football team. Jets QB Geno Smith, now in his second stint with the team, had one of the best quarterback performances of the afternoon, shredding Tennessee’s defense in a comfortable win. The ground game got some things going, as well, and New York’s defense hounded Titans QB Cam Ward all day long. The competition is about to get far tougher, but this was a great opening win for Aaron Glenn’s second season.

29 — Las Vegas Raiders (1-0, —)

Last week: W 27-13 vs. Miami Dolphins

Beyond just the final score, the biggest win for the Raiders on Sunday was the performance of second-year RB Ashton Jeanty. The former No. 6 overall pick, Jeanty suffered an ankle injury in the preseason but didn’t look any worse for wear. Las Vegas got creative in how they deployed him, using him frequently as a receiver out of the backfield, and he responded with a huge game. The Raiders needed Jeanty to show out this season, and he passed the first test.

30 — Miami Dolphins (0-1, UP 2)

Last week: L 13-27 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

It was a rough debut for the Dolphins, but there were a few encouraging signs, namely among the rookies. Third-round WR Caleb Douglas looks really good, continuing to buck expectations as a perceived overdraft. Fellow third-round WR Chris Bell had a big play, proving ahead of schedule in his ACL recovery. First-round CB Chris Johnson and second-round LB Jacob Rodriguez absolutely starred on defense, stuffing the stat sheet in every way. That’s what you want to see as a rebuilding squad.

31 — Tennessee Titans (0-1, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 10-23 vs. New York Jets

The Titans were outclassed by the Jets. The Jets. It was not an encouraging performance for Cam Ward, as the second-year quarterback struggled against New York. This roster still has a long, long way to go, but you were hoping for more from Ward if you’re a Titans fan. Tennessee’s offensive line is a mess, and this defense couldn’t stop New York’s offense at all. Above all, though, Ward’s performance looms large.

32 — Cleveland Browns (0-1, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 10-34 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

What are we even doing here? It’s not just that the Browns were inept — we all expected that — but this team, this roster, this fanbase deserves better. Deshaun Watson is so comically bad that Cleveland HC Todd Monken can hardly defend him in press conferences, he just has to deflect and dodge questions about his performance. At least this is the final year of Watson’s contract.