Buy Or Sell: Offseason Narratives

The NFL offseason is long. We all have a lot of time to sit and analyze every bit of news that scrolls across our timelines, waiting for actual football to be played.

During this time, narratives take shape. Certain teams are expected to be contenders, certain teams are projected to take a step back. Players are labeled as “busts,” “injury-prone,” or “breakout candidates.” Coaches are lauded for their work or placed on the proverbial hot seat.

Today, we’re offering our takes on six of these offseason narratives. We’ll discuss the take in question and then either buy or sell it, explaining why it’s overblown or might make sense.

With that in mind, let’s examine some offseason narratives:

The Cowboys will regress in 2024 after an underwhelming offseason

Dallas HC Mike McCarthy enters a pivotal 2024 season. Despite a strong regular season once again culminating in a division title, the Cowboys still couldn’t get past the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. McCarthy is now firmly on the hot seat, and although Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has continued to stand by his coach, there is a sense in Dallas that another disappointing finish would be hard for McCarthy to survive.

Star QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb still don’t have contracts. Developmental first-rounder Tyler Guyton is slated to start at left tackle. 2023 UDFA Brock Hoffman and 2024 third-rounder Cooper Beebe are battling for the starting center spot. Depth across the roster is coming into question, especially at receiver, edge rusher and in the secondary. For a team in the Cowboys that has so much riding on this year, they haven’t done much to get better.

Verdict: Buying

The biggest offseason addition for Dallas was either Guyton or bringing RB Ezekiel Elliott back to start after a year in New England. They made headlines in the first few days of free agency for being the only team without any moves at all before re-signing their long snapper to get on the board.

The Cowboys overcame some roster issues last season through stifling defense and the stellar play of Prescott and Lamb. Those issues have only grown louder, and now Lamb is holding out and Prescott will be a free agent next season. If McCarthy can’t get this team over the hump anyway, he may not get a second chance.

The Texans are ready to ascend to the AFC’s elite

Fresh off a surprise run to the AFC Divisional Round, Houston didn’t stand pat this offseason. The Texans’ No. 2 and No. 3 picks in the draft last year, QB C.J. Stroud and DE Will Anderson Jr., swept the rookie of the year awards and helped jump-start a young core including WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell on offense and S Jalen Pitre and CB Derek Stingley Jr. on defense. By trading for WR Stefon Diggs and signing DE Danielle Hunter, Houston now has some veteran star power to supplement this core.

With an exciting young quarterback in Stroud on a rookie deal and a strong mix of vets and young talent surrounding him, can the Texans join the cream of the AFC crop?

Verdict: Selling

Look, I’m as excited about the Texans long-term as anyone. Stroud had the best rookie quarterback season since Justin Herbert in 2020 and this team already won a playoff game. But this is still a roster only two years away from earning the No. 2 pick and there are still holes, namely on the back end of the defense. This is a team that won a lot of shootouts and close games in 2023 and faces a tougher schedule in 2024. I think they’re a year away from being true Super Bowl contenders, though they should absolutely be the favorites in their division.

Ultimately, however, it all comes down to Stroud. If he takes a leap from very good to truly great, Houston can compete with anyone.

Caleb Williams will have the Bears ready to compete

Williams was the most hyped No. 1 pick since Trevor Lawrence, maybe even since Andrew Luck. He takes over under center for a Bears team with an exciting group of playmakers. No. 9 overall pick Rome Odunze and trade acquisition Keenan Allen join forces with D.J. Moore to form the NFL’s best receiver trio. D’Andre Swift joins Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson in the backfield, and Gerald Everett comes over from the Chargers to supplement Cole Kmet at tight end. The offense is overflowing with weapons for Williams to utilize.

Not only that, but the offensive line and defense look strong too. Second-year RT Darnell Wright and CB Tyrique Stevenson look to take steps forward, and DE Montez Sweat enters his first full year in Chicago. There are lots of reasons to be excited as a Bears fan.

Verdict: Buying

Chicago won seven games in 2023 starting a combination of Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Why can’t they compete for a wild card berth this year? They’ve made strong additions to their roster and brought in OC Shane Waldron from Seattle to better optimize their talent. The Lions and Packers are rightfully the division favorites, and even the Vikings will still be a good team, so it won’t be easy. But this is absolutely a team that could be playing meaningful games in December, and Williams is the main reason why.

The Chiefs are the favorites to three-peat

Kansas City has made headlines for a lot of off-field reasons this offseason, but the defending champs have made it clear that they have their eyes set on what would be a historic third Super Bowl victory in a row. A few names are gone, but most of the key contributors return. Mainstays like QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, DT Chris Jones and a few others remain. Improving the weapons was a big focus, and first-rounder Xavier Worthy and veteran Marquise Brown join Rashee Rice to form the best receiver trio Mahomes has thrown to since Tyreek Hill was in town. Young defensive studs like LB Nick Bolton, DE George Karlaftis and CB Trent McDuffie are ready to carry the banner for last year’s No. 2-ranked defense. This is the team to beat in the NFL.

Verdict: Buying

I mean…who else would it be? The 49ers have a strong roster built to last and HC Kyle Shanahan calling plays, the Ravens and Bengals have elite quarterbacks and veteran teams, and other teams such as the Lions or Texans could take a step forward and put their names into the ring.

But if you’re looking for one team to bet on, it has to be the Chiefs. They have the best quarterback and coach in the league and a roster stacked with playmakers. They’ve done it before (and before that), and they can do it again.

The Bills shouldn’t be the presumptive favorites in the AFC East

Ever since Tom Brady left New England at the conclusion of the 2019 season, the Bills have owned the AFC East with four straight division titles and five straight playoff appearances for Buffalo, and they’ve been a consistent presence in the AFC race every year. With one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in Josh Allen and a strong roster, the Bills have been trendy title picks for the last few years.

But Buffalo hasn’t reached the AFC title game since 2020. And their roster, one of the deepest in the NFL while they’ve been on this division title run, took a major hit this offseason. There was the Diggs trade to Houston, but CB Tre’Davious White, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde and C Mitch Morse, all longtime starters, are all out as well. The roster is starting to wear down, and Allen may not be able to save it.

Verdict: Buying

I don’t think the Bills will be a bad team but they did clearly get worse. The Jets and Dolphins present stiff competition in the AFC East, and if QB Aaron Rodgers is actually healthy, the Jets have one of the best rosters in the NFL with a recent MVP at quarterback. The Dolphins lost a few important players, but still return a devasting duo with WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and a roster dotted with young stars.

The Bills, meanwhile, will be relying on second-rounder Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir to cobble together a receiving corps. Questions about this defense persist, and the offensive line is potentially shaky. They should be in the mix, but no longer stand above their competition on paper.

The Eagles fixed the issues that plagued them in 2023

A year after dominating the NFC and giving the Chiefs all they could handle in the Super Bowl, the Eagles came crashing back down to Earth. Both coordinators left for head coaching opportunities: OC Shane Steichen to Indianapolis and DC Jonathan Gannon to Arizona. Despite a 10-1 start, the Eagles never looked like themselves and limped down the stretch to a wild card berth and first-round loss to the Buccaneers.

Starting QB Jalen Hurts went from an MVP frontrunner to ineffective over the course of the season, and the offense as a whole was far less innovative and effective without Steichen, whose offense in Indianapolis turned heads. The defense fell off a cliff without Gannon, and HC Nick Sirianni’s inability to hold the team together last season placed him squarely on the hot seat. Sirianni has a fiery personality, but his schtick wears thin if winning doesn’t come with it. Sirianni fired both coordinators he hired in 2023 and replaced them, insisting a youth movement and energizing the culture — along with his new coordinators — will deliver better results.

Verdict: Selling

I’ve never been a believer in Sirianni, and last season only served to reinforce that belief. He’s shown little ability to create a successful offensive system himself, serving under Frank Reich in Indianapolis before capitalizing on the Steichen hire in Philly.

More to the point, the Eagles didn’t really get better this offseason, and most of the issues they experienced last season are still there. They threw resources at the secondary, but the offensive line has a few question marks for the first time in years. The depth at linebacker and receiver is in serious question, as well.

Sirianni is betting his job on two more coordinator hires in DC Vic Fangio and OC Kellen Moore. If they can’t replicate the team success from 2022, the Eagles will be wondering where they go from here.