NFLTR Review: Deshaun Watson’s Improbable Path Out Of Houston

Happy Friday! The NFL coaching cycle is picking up speed and we have lots of updates to share with you in this week’s NFLTR Review, plus much, much more:

• How Deshaun Watson could actually force his way out of Houston
• The five teams that could most likely work out a trade with the Texans
• Why the drama in Philadelphia isn’t finished after the Eagles fired Doug Pederson

Around The Trade Block: Deshaun Watson

Texans QB Deshaun Watson has become the highest-profile addition to the trade rumor mill in quite some time. Plenty of outlets have already written up their “trade destinations for Deshaun” pieces, and we’ll get to our thoughts on that topic in a moment. But first, some context. 

Let’s say this straight away: it’s highly unlikely the Texans trade Watson. They certainly don’t want to, they just gave him a deal worth $39 million a year last season. Some teams go decades without finding a player of Watson’s caliber as a complete package on and off the field at quarterback. For as awful as the Texans were this past season, Watson was equally brilliant, leading the NFL in passing yards and setting career highs nearly across the board as a passer. 

No team would give that up willingly. So the Texans are going to try to smooth things over and win Watson back, as he’s the foundation of all the team’s future hopes. How competently they’ll do so is a fair question, as they’ve already mismanaged the situation to its current point. But they won’t let Watson go without a fight.

What gives this rumor legs is Watson’s apparently genuine discontent with the direction of the team. The Texans are in turmoil behind the scenes. Reportedly due to the influence of EVP Jack Easterby, Houston ignored the recommendation of the search firm it hired and froze Watson out of the process to hire Easterby’s pick at GM, Nick Caserio. They also didn’t make any effort to talk with Watson’s preferred coaching candidate, Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy, until his feelings became public. Watson was so furious with the team that his camp was apparently willing to leak potential trade destinations he’d prefer. Is he mad enough to really and truly try to force his way out? 

Players become unhappy with teams all the time. Sometimes it boils over into public discontent or holdouts. But ninety-five times out of a hundred, the prospect of fines and forfeiting salary prevents most players from playing true hardball with teams in a league where very little is guaranteed to the players in terms of long-term security. 

Most of the NFL folks opining on the situation anonymously to league insiders take the conventional view of Watson’s dispute — that he’ll swallow his issues and soldier on like most players do. However, Watson is uniquely positioned to force the Texans to move on if he has the stomach for it. You don’t even have to leave Houston to see what’s possible when a star athlete decides he wants out, as James Harden proved Wednesday. 

Watson probably doesn’t need to go scorched earth in the press as Harden did. Perhaps he takes the approach of airing some of the dirty laundry on Easterby to the press and forcing the team to choose between the two of them. If that doesn’t work and he still wants out, the crux of Watson’s leverage comes down to his age (25) and the fact he’s banked $40 million already. Those are the foundations of what he needs to sell to the Texans brass — I’m willing to retire rather than play another snap for this franchise. 

That’s what Carson Palmer did when he reached his breaking point with the Bengals. Palmer requested a trade after the 2010 season and the then-32-year-old was reported as telling people close to him, “I will never set foot in Paul Brown Stadium again. I have $80 million in the bank….I don’t have to play football for money. I’ll play it for the love of the game, but that would have to be elsewhere.” Bengals owner Mike Brown placed him on the reserve-retired list with the intention of letting Palmer basically rot there until he changed his mind. But the success of Andy Dalton and the Raiders offering a first-round pick eventually forced Brown to relent. 

This is the precedent Watson likely has to follow to secure a trade, but there are some key differences. Watson is much younger and a fierce competitor. The prospect of never playing again, even if it is slim, probably won’t sit well with him. Then again, who knows if owner Cal McNair has the resolve of the infamously stubborn Brown. Either way, it’s hard to see a different path out of Houston for Watson if that’s what he wants. 

If he does go this route, there’s still no way he’s traded before the draft. Houston won’t give up that soon. Maybe by training camp, but it’s more likely the Texans test Watson’s resolve by forcing him to watch his teammates go to war without him during the season. The locker room is a special place and being cut off from that will be hard. If Watson doesn’t relent, perhaps history repeats itself and Houston finds their own potential successor while a team blows them away with an offer midseason. But things could just as easily drag into 2022. And mega trades like that are harder to work in-season. Watson has as few blemishes as any player, but staying away from the game for 12 months and longer hurts no matter who you are. 

If Watson decides all of that is better than playing for the Texans — and the percentage of that happening are in the single digits at best — then here are some teams that could potentially make sense. Three-quarters of the league at least would jump at the chance to land Watson but Watson can control his destination with his no-trade clause. These are the potential suitors that could be the most compelling to him. Assume any deal starts with three first-round picks. 

Dolphins

Watson has already signaled he’d welcome a move to Miami. The Dolphins are a team on the rise with a number of young pieces on both sides of the ball, a promising head coach in Brian Flores and the practical perks of no state income tax. They can also offer a compelling alternative to Houston in QB Tua Tagovailoa, at least compared to other teams. The popular package of Miami’s No. 3 and No. 18 picks plus Tagovailoa and potentially more likely isn’t relevant given the probable timeline of any “realistic” Watson trade. Perhaps some rookies or second-year players may factor into the deal, but Miami’s far enough along in its rebuild it could give up pieces for Watson and still be a strong contender. 

Saints

The Saints are known for being one of the more aggressive and creative organizations when it comes to front office moves, so they have to be viewed as a contender for Watson if he becomes available. They have some cleaning up of their cap to do but Watson has just a $10.5 million base salary in 2021, which is workable. He’d also jump at the chance to be a part of the terrific program the Saints have built under HC Sean Payton. 

Falcons

The hometown team is also a potential landing spot for Watson. He grew up in Georgia and former Falcons star Warrick Dunn helped build a house for him and his family through his nonprofit. Returning to his roots could be a major draw for him. The Falcons also have a potential long-term need at quarterback and much more stable ownership than Houston. 

Steelers

Ideally, the Texans would like to get Watson out of the division. But if the best offer comes from a team like the Steelers and Watson exercises his no-trade clause to guide his destination, then Pittsburgh makes sense on a few different levels. There might not be a more stable organization in the NFL in terms of leadership from the top down. Pittsburgh will need a new quarterback sooner rather than later, and while the haul they’d have to surrender for Watson would trend against their tendency of caution with splash moves, Watson is a rare player. The one caution would be if giving up the assets needed to acquire Watson would damage the team’s ability to reload an aging team. 

49ers

At some point, it appears the 49ers will move on from Jimmy Garoppolo, but they appear to be holding out for a definite upgrade. It’s worth mentioning that they looked at Tom Brady last offseason and decided that wasn’t worth pulling the plug. However, Watson would be a clear upgrade. Caserio also has a lot of familiarity with Garoppolo, so as other quarterback options for the Texans go in these trade discussions, that’s among the better ones. Watson gets to team up with offensive whiz Kyle Shanahan, who’s expressed an interest in adding a more mobile, playmaking type quarterback to his offense that’s typically been catered to the Matt Ryan’s and Kirk Cousins’s of the world. 

This Week In Football

• Given the way this season has gone, it wasn’t entirely a surprise that the Eagles decided to fire HC Doug Pederson on Monday. 2020 was an abject disaster for a team that expected to contend for a title, but instead finished last in the worst division in football. Still, he did just win the franchise’s first Super Bowl ever just three years ago. If you’re curious what kind of leash that buys you as a coach, looks like it’s three years. 
• The Eagles didn’t waste any time going after candidates, and the biggest name that’s circulated so far is Oklahoma HC Lincoln Riley. Riley’s been the white whale of league coaching searches for a few years now, but if the Eagles landed him it would offer more incredible intrigue at quarterback given his former starter Jalen Hurts is in Philadelphia. It’s doubtful Riley jumps for the Eagles job, however, as he’s got a great thing going at Oklahoma. 
• There are still six open head coaching vacancies but it’s probably fair to say the Jaguars have made the biggest splash of the coaching cycle so far by hiring former Ohio State HC Urban Meyer to be their next head coach. Meyer’s been a successful coach at just about every stop in college. But he’s also tended to duck out when things start to get rough, or when the consequences of how he runs his program hit the fan. Who knows how it will pan out but it’s a much-needed shot of relevancy for a Jaguars franchise that’s languished in irrelevancy for a long time. 
• After the Jaguars locked up Meyer, 49ers DC Robert Saleh pulled the trigger on taking the job offer from the Jets shortly after. New York wanted to add a leader who would command the entire team and deal with a ruthless media market. The charismatic Saleh fits the bill in that regard. While he’s a defensive coach, he’ll be bringing along with him 49ers assistant Mike LaFleur as his offensive coordinator to help develop either Sam Darnold or a different, promising rookie. As for San Francisco, they’ll replace Saleh with LB coach DeMeco Ryans, who they believe has an equally bright future. 
• While the Eagles elected to shake things up, making the playoffs two out of the past three years was enough for the Bears to keep both GM Ryan Pace and HC Matt Nagy. Both made it explicitly clear in their end of year pressers, however, that they know they have to make progress on the quarterback situation this year if they’re going to last beyond 2021. It remains to be seen how they proceed, as their cap and draft situation don’t point to an obvious answer. 
• There were other changes to the Bears coaching staff, though, as DC Chuck Pagano announced he was retiring from the league after 20 years of coaching in the NFL. Pagano’s a terrific example of someone who was a good, not great, coach, but a first-class human being. This story from my friend is a great example of the type of person the Bears and the NFL are losing. 
• For the past few years with the Vikings, George Paton has been very selective with the potential general manager jobs he’s explored. Paton has declined interviews with the Browns and Jets and other teams have unsuccessfully tried to lure him out of Minnesota. But Denver, who we ranked fifth out of seven in our ranking of GM vacancies last week, apparently had the winning formula to get Paton to jump. Perhaps it’s the skiing in Colorado. 
• A couple of other teams also finalized their hires for general manager, including the Lions locking up Rams director of college scouting Brad Holmes. The sense from the Lions at the start of the process was they were targeting an experienced GM. But they settled on Holmes in large part due to what seems like strong advocacy from the Los Angeles organization. These types of hires are incredibly hard for outsiders to judge. The interview process is opaque and random chance clouds what’s otherwise a results-based business. The early signs on Holmes are promising, though.
• After an extensive search, the Panthers settled on Seahawks executive Scott Fitterer as their next general manager. Fitterer’s name has been in the conversation for a number of job openings in recent years. He has a strong reputation as a scout and that will serve him well with the Panthers who look to be taking a similar coach-centric approach as the Seahawks. The Falcons now seem to be zeroing in on Saints assistant GM Terry Fontenot, as both Fontenot and Holmes were finalists for other jobs. That just leaves Washington and Jacksonville with general manager vacancies, which should wrap up shortly. 
• Colts LT Anthony Castonzo announced he would be retiring this week and not finishing out the two-year deal he signed with Indianapolis last year when he contemplated retirement. Castonzo leaves as one of the game’s most underrated tackles right now, as he never made the Pro Bowl during his 10-year career. The Colts now have to figure out a future at left tackle as well as quarterback, which adds another layer to their team-building quandary. 
• The Cowboys commenced their defensive overhaul by firing DC Mike Nolan and replacing him with former Falcons HC Dan Quinn. Nolan’s system was too complex and that won’t be the case with Quinn, who runs a variant of the Cover 3-based system the Seahawks used at the peak of their run. The rub with that will be building enough talent on the defensive line and secondary, which Quinn wasn’t able to do with the Falcons. 
• Just hours after publicly affirming that OC Brian Schottenheimer would be back with the Seahawks in 2021, HC Pete Carroll met with him on Monday night and apparently discovered irreconcilable philosophical differences about how Seattle should proceed on offense. So on Tuesday Schottenheimer was fired as Carroll appears to be exerting his influence as the boss to go back to the run-focused attack Seattle has featured the majority of his tenure. It’ll be interesting to see how willingly QB Russell Wilson follows along. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

I find it fascinating how picked apart the Panthers coaching staff is becoming relative to other 5-11 teams, both this year and historically. Joe Brady is a hot head coaching candidate, two of his lieutenants in QB coach Jake Peetz and offensive assistant DJ Mangas left to run LSU’s offense and South Carolina hired assistant OL coach Marcus Satterfield as offensive coordinator. The defense is getting interest, too, as defensive passing game coordinator Jason Simmons interviewed for the Cowboys DC vacancy. Contrast this to the Packers, who finished 13-3 for the second year in a row and have just had OC Nathaniel Hackett interview with the Falcons this year…

Alabama WR DeVonta Smith's draft day is going to reveal a lot in what teams value. A GREAT player. One of the greatest college WRs ever. But some teams won't draft a smaller WR high in the first round on principle.

Only two WRs under 6-1 and 200 have gone Top 10 the last decade.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) January 12, 2021

Breer makes a great point here about Alabama’s Heisman-winning WR DeVonta Smith. The senior had one of the best seasons ever for a receiver, even better than what LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase did in 2019. You can’t ignore the production and his natural feel for the position. But even his three touchdowns in the national title game against Ohio State were a result of being schemed open. The NFL draft is all about traits, and the 6-0, 175 pound Smith doesn’t really check that box…

Lamar Jackson didn’t run for us at the Combine, unfortunately. But his lethal speed was on display on his long touchdown run against the Titans. There are three defensive backs who have seven, 12 and 20 yard head starts on Jackson and he still beats them all to the pylon…

“Have we gotten the quarterback situation completely right? No. Have we won enough games? No. But everything else is there.” — Bears President Ted Phillips

In a quote that sparked some eye rolls, Bears team president Ted Phillips claimed that despite the team’s struggles to win consistently or find a quarterback, they actually were doing a great job. General manager Ryan Pace struck a similar note, saying “Is 8-8 good enough? No. Is losing in the first round good enough? No. But what I appreciate is we fought, we stuck together.” Pace actually hits on an interesting debate on whether culture is just synonymous for winning in NFL circles, or if it’s something independent. Good teams obviously don’t get dinged for culture problems. Perhaps going 8-8 the past two years with the dreck the Bears have started at quarterback is a sign of how strong their culture is. Then again, perhaps it’s just not as strong as they think…

The Vikings virtual war room celebration when the Eagles took Jalen Reagor is a MOOD

pic.twitter.com/Loehm3VlvR

— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) January 8, 2021

Some folks on the Eagles beat this week dug into why the Eagles took Jalen Reagor ahead of Justin Jefferson, who’s a likely finalist for rookie of the year. Part of it was GM Howie Roseman thought Minnesota would poach Reagor if they tried to trade down, which judging by the reaction in the above video was a misread of the situation, to say the least…

The fractured relationship between Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz absolutely played a major part in the Eagles’ decision. It was much easier to get rid of Pederson than it would have been to trade Wentz, and it’s fair to read this in part as the organization choosing Wentz over Pederson. With that kind of power, who’s to say Wentz doesn’t make it known that the only way he’s a happy camper in 2021 is if Philadelphia trades Hurts? He obviously wasn’t pleased the team drafted Hurts in the first place and reading between the lines of owner Jeffrey Lurie‘s presser this week, it’s not hard to foretell more drama coming in Philadelphia this year…

Check This Out

• Rivers McCown, formerly of the Athletic and now out on his own, provides terrific Texans coverage and he incisively analyzes the mess Houston finds itself in with Easterby. The Texans’ problems don’t end with Easterby, though. Organizations are only as good as the people at the top and McCown builds a strong case that Cal McNair is in over his head. Not hopeful if you’re a Texans fan. But a great read, nonetheless. 
• Ohio State QB Justin Fields didn’t put up the same flashy numbers that he did in the semifinal against Clemson. But Rotoworld’s Derrik Klassen analyzes how Fields still put out a solid showing on tape in the title game against Alabama, considering the circumstances. His status as a top draft pick should still be intact.