NFLTR Review: Scouting The 2023 QB Class

Eyes are always on the next generation of potential star NFL quarterbacks. In this issue:

• After a letdown last year, we finally have a QB worthy of the No. 1 pick in 2023
• At No. 2, an immensely talented but raw developmental prospect from the SEC — and perhaps not the one you’re thinking
• Plus, a player who might have much more to his game than initially meets the eye

Scouting The 2023 QB Class

All the talk about last year being a bad year to need to find a rookie quarterback ended up proving pretty on point. In November of 2021 we looked at six quarterbacks who were getting potential first-round buzz: 

• Kenny Pickett ended up going in the first round to the Steelers — the only first-round selection out of the bunch — and while he’s finished the season strong with some flashes at the end of games, the body of work as a whole is less than compelling. He has the same amount of passing touchdowns as Jets QB Zach Wilson and fewer than Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz. His touchdown percentage of 1.7 percent is last in the league. 
• Falcons QB Desmond Ridder was the next off the board 54 picks later in the third round. He’s made three starts so far and has yet to throw a touchdown. 
• The Titans took QB Malik Willis in the third round. He was seen as an immensely-talented but raw developmental project who needed a lot of time to sit and learn. That looks fair given he’s yet to crack 100 passing yards in any of his three starts. 
• Last year I liked QB Matt Corral the most out of any of the prospects, but he slipped all the way to the end of the third round as the fourth off the board. His season with the Panthers ended before it really began with a Lisfranc injury, but not before some horrid preseason tape. Carolina can’t and won’t rely on him as any significant piece of the quarterback puzzle going into 2023. 
• The Commanders ended QB Sam Howell’s freefall with the first pick of the fifth round. He’s slated to make his first appearance in Week 18 against the Cowboys, though he did lead the NFL in passing yards this preseason. 
• Carson Strong was not drafted and it became quickly apparent during camp with the Eagles that the NFL was not enamored with him. He had major knee issues in college which likely contributed to his slide. 

The best rookie passer has arguably been the last one taken, Mr. Irrelevant himself, 49ers seventh-round QB Brock Purdy. Besides the flashes from Pickett, however, this group largely looks like a batch of backups at this point. 

Though there’s no shortage of quarterback classes that have failed to live up to the hype, it’s probably safe to say the 2023 draft class will offer far more options to teams seeking a new starter through the draft. Alabama QB Bryce Young and Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud were viewed as first-round prospects after their 2021 season and haven’t lost any ground after this season. Kentucky QB Will Levis has some major fans in the scouting community based on the buzz, even if he didn’t have the breakthrough season many were anticipating. And Florida QB Anthony Richardson declared as a redshirt sophomore with a reputation as a wildcard with immense physical talent but a lot of rawness to cook out of his game. 

As we sit right now, those are the four major contenders as potential first-round selections, with no shortage of teams potentially in the market. Like last year, here’s a scouting report diving into the strengths and weaknesses of each player, along with a pro comparison to help visualize which teams could be good fits. 

1 – Alabama QB Bryce Young

Strengths

• Just dripping with poise in every situation. Rarely rattled and is in complete command and control, including two-minute drill, late-game situations, against the blitz, under pressure and on money downs. 
• This allows him to cycle through progressions to find the weakness in the defense, manipulate defenders with his eyes and use his legs to create opportunities when he runs out of time in the pocket. 
• Injuries might have affected him a little bit in 2022 but his arm is more than fine for the NFL level. Hits far-hash throws in the college game where the marks are a lot wider with plenty of zip and can bomb it over the top with no issues. 
• Displays great placement on passes in the quick game, leading receivers out of harm’s way into open windows and delivering passes with anticipation and accuracy to create yards after catch opportunities. 
• This accuracy continues down the field. His tape is littered with dimes on corner routes and go routes to the sideline, fitting passes into tiny windows. 
• Most of the time, does an excellent job balancing opportunities to aggressively attack down the field with managing the game and taking shorter passes. 
• Does not appear limited by his size in the pocket. Passes are rarely deflected unless it’s on schemed RPO plays where he has to get the ball out at a certain time and defenders can get into the window.
• When he’s on the move, he does an excellent job of using his quickness to bait defenders in before juking away. It often looks like opponents are trying to catch a minnow. 
• Although he played at Alabama, it should be noted that his skill position group in 2022 was nowhere near as good as past Crimson Tide iterations

Weaknesses

• With Young, his size has to be discussed. He’s listed at 5-11 and 197 pounds and both are probably generous. Being short isn’t as big of an issue for the NFL as it has been when it comes to quarterbacks but it’s still a big person’s game and durability will be a concern. Young might be about the same size as Cardinals QB Kyler Murray but Murray is much faster and still has struggled with injuries. 
• While Young is a great scrambler, he’s not an outstanding QB run threat because he’s quicker than fast and can’t compensate with size. He will take advantage of open lanes if a defense leaves them free, and he’s a pain to track down when scrambling, but a team will want to be judicious with designed runs. 
• Can press too much to make a big play or push the ball downfield at times. This is more the exception than the rule, and you can see him make it a point on the next drive to get back into a rhythm. 
• Room to improve dropback mechanics. He likes the Jay Cutler-style backpedal instead of a traditional drop, which is fine, but it can lead to him throwing off-platform in the pocket when he doesn’t have to. 
• The strategy defenses used best against him was to hem him in the pocket with blitzes, cut off escape routes and play man coverage on the back. In those situations, he had a tendency to get antsy in the pocket and throw off-platform, which caused his accuracy to suffer

Comparison/Grade

Every quarterback prospect under six-foot tall for the past decade has drawn comparisons to Russell Wilson. In Young’s case, he might have a legitimate case to live up to that lofty comparison. The best thing I can say about him is he has the “it factor” and it jumps off the screen when you watch his play-making streak at work. There would be almost no questions about him if he were bigger, and he’s still widely viewed as a strong candidate to be the No. 1 overall selection. The hard work of developing at the NFL level still has to be done but if Young doesn’t land in a completely dysfunctional situation, you have to feel optimistic about his chances of becoming a high-end NFL starter. 

2 – Florida QB Anthony Richardson

Strengths

• If you’ve ever read the phrase “the ball leaps from his hands” in a scouting report, watch Richardson and you’ll see exactly what that means. Top-shelf arm strength. Can put the ball just about anywhere on the field he wants. There are times on his Florida tape where he’s off balance and just launches it 60-70 yards down the field. 
• Outstanding athletic gifts and ability as a runner, with strength, speed and elusiveness. Listed at 6-4, 231 pounds and that looks about right on tape. Should run a strong 40 time if he chooses to run at the Combine, although a lot of top quarterback prospects forego.
• His burst regularly catches defenders off guard. A bear to bring down, inside and outside of the pocket. Frequently stiff-arms defensive linemen. If he didn’t play quarterback, he’d be a heck of tight end prospect — and even if he flames out he could have utility in a Taysom Hill-style package. 
• Flashes of high-end accuracy in tight-window throws down the field. Also shows the ability to take pace off the ball and throw with touch when the situation calls for it. There are times where his receiving corps held him back from higher production. 
• Generally good throwing on the run. 
• Has moments on tape where he displays mature decision-making in terms of managing the game and taking the easy yards a defense gives. 
• Consistently plays with a plan and confidence in what he’s seeing from the defense, will use his eyes to pull the safety and underneath defenders in one direction before turning and firing to the other side. 

Weaknesses

• Major accuracy issues. Had just four games at a 60 percent completion percentage or higher out of 12 in 2022. Completion percentage isn’t everything but modern college offenses have enough easy completions built in that 60 percent is a baseline most players should reach. 
• When he misses, Richardson has a tendency to miss high. Some of that is because his arm is such a cannon. Other issues can be traced to his footwork, as his base can contract and become too narrow during the course of a play. 
• Because of the inconsistent accuracy, short timing-based routes can be an adventure. His inaccuracy tends to be glaring here, as he’ll go cold for stretches of the game. 
• Although it’s understandable because of how physically talented he is, Richardson will get too invested in the outcome of the play and will hold onto the ball longer than he should trying to make something happen, or throw into windows he shouldn’t. Sometimes it works, the key is being more judicious about it.  

Comparison/Grade

I have a hunch that by April, having Richardson as the No. 2 quarterback in this class will look like less of a hot take. And to be fair the difference was pretty slim between him and the next guy on the list. The ceiling was just hard to ignore. Watching Richardson at Florida feels a lot like watching Cam Newton. Like Newton, Richardson is a phenomenally talented player who doesn’t get enough credit for how developed the technical and mental aspects of his game are. The biggest negative on his report is his accuracy, and while historically that’s been a tough trait to improve upon, we’ve seen Bills QB Josh Allen and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts make “unprecedented” strides in that department in the past few seasons with offenses tailored around their strengths. Richardson is much farther along as a prospect than Willis was last year, and if Allen can be a top-ten pick coming out of Wyoming, Richardson should absolutely be in that discussion coming out of the SEC. 

3 – Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud

Strengths

• Fairly advanced pocket passer, and has the size at 6-3 and 220 pounds teams are looking for. He runs the offense well and does a good job pre-snap of identifying the best looks. Ohio State plays most of their games with a talent advantage but when they’re making it look easy, Stroud has a hand in that too. 
• Excellent timing on throws to the sideline and has the arm strength to get it out there with pace, even on far-hash throws and even past defenders on some occasions. 
• Also really good when throwing to the intermediate parts of the field, especially when he has to layer between defenders. Plenty of dimes on his tape in this area. 
• Cycles through his reads and progressions quickly, knows when the backside player is going to be there and doesn’t hesitate to turn and pull the trigger in most situations. Generally smart about not putting the ball up for grabs. 
• Decent mobility. Enough to hurt defenses who don’t account for it but not a dynamic threat with his legs — usually. More on that below. 
• At times, shows strong navigation of the pocket while under pressure. 

Weaknesses

• Will get too confident in his arm/placement ability over the middle and throw into windows he shouldn’t. There were a few interceptions and a few other interceptable passes that were a result of this. 
• At times, has plays open down the field that he turns down for the safer option. Avoids negative plays this way but also misses some big plays. 
• Ball security on sacks could improve, has a few fumbles to his name on plays where he’s taken major hits. 
• Has a wide stance in the pocket with his feet askew and frenetic. This leads to him falling away from throws sometimes and it affects his accuracy. Much better when he can sit and throw from a stable base, some of his best throws are in those situations. 
• His accuracy fades on long balls down the field, though to be fair even star quarterbacks don’t usually have a great completion rate on these passes. 
• Stroud’s accuracy also dips notably when he’s asked/forced to throw on the move — usually. More on that below. 

Comparison/Grade

I watched five games of Stroud’s tape, including the 2021 loss to Oregon, 2022 win against Notre Dame, 2022 win against Iowa, 2022 loss to Michigan and 2022 loss to Georgia. For the first four games of that sample, he was a much more inconsistent player when operating on the move. There were occasional instances of good passes delivered on the run and while escaping pressure, so it’s not like he’s incapable in that area. But usually Stroud’s accuracy suffered significantly when forced off his spot. Then in the College Football Playoff against Georgia, Stroud flipped that ratio entirely upside down. The highlight plays on the move that were a rarity in the first four games became the norm. 

What do you do with that as an evaluator? It’s going to be a question a lot of NFL teams are asking themselves when they look at Stroud’s tape. We’ve seen players blossom at the next level because they were asked to play a certain way in college when they were capable of more. Think about how Chargers QB Justin Herbert was viewed coming out of Oregon. On the other hand, you don’t want to put too much weight on one game. 

Stroud is a first-round prospect one way or another. How teams answer the above question about his ceiling will determine how high he goes. If there’s more weight put on the rest of his career, teams will view Stroud as more of a pocket-only passer in the mold of Lions QB Jared Goff or Raiders QB Derek Carr who needs more support around him to thrive. If they think they can get him to play like he did against Georgia more consistently, a better comparison could be Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, who does most of his damage from the pocket these days after his ankle injury in 2020 but is still dynamic enough with his legs to cause problems for defenses. 

4 – Kentucky QB Will Levis

Strengths

• Wow arm strength. He is regularly ripping far hash throws and bombing it deep down the field. 
• Great size for the position at 6-3 and 231 pounds and he’s a tough runner. Tough player overall, and plays with a hardnosed edge. Strong and hard to bring down in the pocket. 
• Played under a pair of former NFL coaches in his two years at Kentucky; Rams OC Liam Coen and former Broncos OC and 49ers QB coach Rich Scangarello, so he’d already have experience acclimating to an NFL playbook in theory. Both ran a version of the Shanahan-style offense which is every around the NFL right now, and would be the best fit for Levis. 
• Displays flashes of accuracy into tight windows deep down the field. At his best off play-action where he can turn and attack the middle of the field in rhythm. 
• Does a good job of hitting his checkdown when the situation calls for it. 
• Solid job of reading out progressions and delivering the ball in the short passing game. 

Weaknesses

• His pocket presence leaves a lot to be desired. Levis will both bail too early from clean pockets and sit too long with pressure bearing down. He even will drift his way into trouble in otherwise clean pockets.
• There were a few instances where he also either failed to recognize a blitz or failed to adjust his throwing plan to the protection call, for example not understanding if the line is sliding away from a potential blitzer, he is “hot” and responsible for beating the rusher with a quick throw.  
• His lower body mechanics can get him into trouble. He gets happy feet and tends to fall away from throws. This is a contributing factor to his inconsistent accuracy, as Levis has a tendency to spray passes, even on easy short throws. 
• Levis can struggle to process what he’s seeing pre and post-snap, as evidenced by how often he fails to deliver the ball confidently in a timely manner. He will wait a few extra beats to confirm he’s seeing an open receiver, and in that time the window will often close. 
• He also locks onto his primary receiver and doesn’t account for ancillary coverage defenders who can still impact the play. 
• While Levis’ offense was run by NFL coordinators, the offense itself was heavy on bubble screens, rollouts and play-action passes, which inflated his production to a degree. There were times in key situations where Kentucky didn’t trust Levis with the keys to make something happen, though it also could be that in 2022 in particular, his supporting cast also struggled to win in a straight dropback passing game. 
• Injuries were a factor in his limited rushing production in 2022 but as a runner, Levis isn’t in the same breath as guys like Allen, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson or even fellow 2023 classmate Richardson. Giants QB Daniel Jones might even be a little aspirational as a comparison. 

Comparison/Grade

We’re a long way out from the draft and there’s plenty of evaluating that still has to be done. Media narratives this time of year can be way off reality, though other times they offer more of a clearer perspective before the craziness of draft season sets in. So take this with a grain of salt. There seems to be a contingent of NFL evaluators who absolutely love Levis’ tape. A 30-year NFL scouting executive listed Levis as his top prospect. There are NFL scouts who feel the same way, according to ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller. And the OG draft guru, ESPN’s Mel Kiper, has Levis as his top passer and No. 3 overall player, also perhaps influenced by what he’s hearing about how the league sees the Kentucky signal caller. 

As evidenced by my ranking and scouting report here, I don’t feel the same way. All it takes is one team at the top of the board to fall in love with a player, though. We’ve seen it most recently with the Jets locking in on QB Zach Wilson early on in the process in 2021. In my opinion, Levis is a major project who has much more in common with Seahawks QB Drew Lock than he does Ben Roethlisberger or Prescott or any of the other comparisons Levis has drawn. 

This Week In Football

• This was not a normal week in the NFL. In a highly-anticipated Monday night game between the Bills and the Bengals — one that actually featured the most combined wins of any Monday night game in history — millions of people instead watched as Bills S Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field following a relatively routine collision. We learned after a few minutes that he needed CPR, and the horrified looks on the faces of his Buffalo teammates told us this was a much different situation than the injuries we’re accustomed to seeing. Later we learned that Hamlin had gone into cardiac arrest, and the entire NFL has been on the edge of its seat pulling for Hamlin as his recovery has inched forward. Thankfully he’s alive and awake, which is the most important thing right now. The NFL will sort through the fallout, including the cancellation of the remainder of the game and the playoff implications. In the coming weeks, the rest of us will get to unpack everything that happened, from the love and humanity displayed between opposing teams and fans, who all bonded as one community this week with the $7 million and counting raised for Hamlin’s toy drive charity as a tangible representation, to the reckoning for everything, good and bad, that comes from being a nation enmeshed in this immensely popular and horribly violent sport. But for now, Damar Hamlin is awake, and that’s the most important thing. 
• The NFL regular season will come to a close on Sunday, which means Monday will be Black Monday when the teams that are going to fire their head coach typically announce the decision. Three teams have already taken the plunge and haven’t waited — the Panthers, Colts and Broncos. Eyes are on two more teams, the Cardinals and Texans, for possible vacancies. There’s not a whole lot of word out of Arizona on which way owner Michael Bidwill is leaning regarding HC Kliff Kingsbury. In Houston, the Texans will apparently conduct an evaluation of HC Lovie Smith after the season is over, which you’d be right to think sounds ominous. They used similar language before firing HC David Culley last year after just one season, and Culley had four wins to Smith’s two. But this would be the third coach Houston has fired in three seasons, which even a team as dysfunctional as the Texans surely understand is a bad look. All of that means there’s some level of suspense for those two teams heading into Monday. 
• The other teams can’t officially start their coaching searches until Monday either but there’s already quite a bit swirling. The Colts and Panthers both have interim coaches to consider, though Carolina’s Steve Wilks is a much more compelling candidate to stay on in his role than Indianapolis’ Jeff Saturday. Some other big names are circulating, too. The Panthers and Broncos have both reportedly reached out to Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh to discuss their job openings. It’s not clear yet how much interest Harbaugh would have in returning to the NFL, however. A report citing people close to him said Harbaugh would definitely jump if he got an offer. However, Harbaugh released a statement Thursday saying, “while no one knows what the future holds, I expect that I will be enthusiastically coaching Michigan in 2023.” That’s hardly definitive and leaves him a few outs. The coming weeks will be interesting. 
• The other big fish is of course former Saints HC Sean Payton. Last week, we looked at Payton’s options to return to coaching in 2023. We didn’t get as much into the potential draft compensation it will take but the indications are it could be significant. With past precedent in mind, most around the league expect the Saints to ask for a first-round pick in return for the rights to Payton. Presumably that or some other satisfactory proposal will have to be on the table for the Saints to even grant another team the right to speak with Payton, similar to how the Texans handled trade talks for QB Deshaun Watson this past offseason. Payton is worth a first-round pick, so I don’t think that should be a huge issue. The hangup, like we talked about last week, will be Payton’s perception of his available options. 
• The plans for some teams this offseason are starting to come into focus, and as it always does it starts with the quarterback. The Raiders will make QB Derek Carr available for trade with the hopes of getting a deal done by the third day following the Super Bowl when his $40 million in guarantees kick in. For his part, Carr does not intend to retire despite saying in 2021 he would rather retire than play for a team that wasn’t the Raiders. Evidently getting benched and booted out of town changed those rosy feelings… There will be a lot of interest in Carr, though there could be some interesting cat-and-mouse games between the Raiders, interested teams and Carr’s own camp to try and navigate the particular dynamics of the situation — is Carr better off forcing his release and testing free agency, for instance.
• Barring a massive surprise, there will be little to no trade interest in Jets QB Zach Wilson following an abysmal 2022 season. So it makes sense for the Jets to proclaim they’re not giving up on Wilson and intend to keep him around. The other choice would be to cut him and eat the remaining guarantees on his deal, and that’s not appealing unless Wilson requests out and starts to become a problem. But his best bet at this point is to take a step back, figure out how to get out of this rut he’s found himself in, then put his head down and grind to maybe become a functional NFL quarterback. If Wilson leaves the Jets, odds are it won’t happen until some point late in the summer. 
• Most people probably figured Giants QB Daniel Jones was on far shakier ground entering this season than his other New York counterpart. Instead, Jones has had a solid season and the Giants snapped a playoff drought that had lasted six seasons (the Jets extended theirs to 12). As a result, the new regime plans to bring back both him and RB Saquon Barkley in 2023 with the hope of taking another step forward. How they follow through will be fascinating. Both players are set to be unrestricted free agents and the Giants have just one franchise tag to use. That means at least one of these players will require some kind of long-term deal. New York could extend Barkley, as even if he resets the running back market that’s currently at $16 million a season that’s dramatically cheaper than the deal Jones will command as a quarterback. However, big-money second contracts for running backs have historically been a bad investment. Negotiating a deal for Jones would be tricky because there’s not really a middle class contract at the quarterback position. The tag is about $33 million and that’s probably the minimum on a new deal for Jones, with a case to push it as high as $40 million. For as much as Jones improved this season, that would still be a risk, even on something like a two or three-year deal. How the Giants proceed will probably dictate whether they’re back in the playoffs in 2023 or lapse back into another drought.