To prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft, we’re doing a series here at NFL Trade Rumors looking at overrated and underrated prospects at each position. Here’s where we stand so far:
Next up — tight ends. This can be a tricky position to evaluate because tight ends are asked to do so much, both as blockers in the run game and as receivers in the passing game. Finding athletes big, strong and skilled enough to do all of that is a challenge. It’s no surprise rookie tight ends often take years to develop into quality contributors, and often it’s for a different organization than the one that drafted them.
Evaluating success for tight ends also isn’t as simple as other positions because of how different they can be used from team to team. There are obviously the primary receiving threats, your Travis Kelce’s and George Kittle’s and Sam LaPorta’s, who can push for perennial 1,000-yard seasons and act as No. 1 targets in the passing game. In some cases like Kittle, these players are adept blockers too and featured pieces in the ground game.
But a “good” receiving year for most tight ends is somewhere between 500-800 yards and acting as a threat in the red zone while also being competent as a blocker — or at least not a liability. That’s why Bengals TE Mike Gesicki is now on his third teams despite fitting the first half of that job description.
There’s also a viable and lucrative path for an NFL tight end who is just a blocking specialist. In the past couple of seasons, players like Charlie Woerner, Josh Oliver, Brock Wright and Will Dissly have signed mid-level contracts on the back of their blocking skills.
So as we look at this class and assign labels of overrated and underrated — which is all relative to expectations in the first place — it’s worth remembering the multiple paths to success the tight ends in this draft class can chart.
Once again, we’ll be looking at players most likely to over-perform or underperform their perception, using the various consensus big boards to generate the baseline. Here’s one from the Athletic with the top 100 players, and another from NFL Mock Draft Database.
Underrated: Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott
Kansas is not a natural hotbed for high school football talent and Kansas State is not a destination school, so the Wildcats for years have had to do more with less. Sinnott is the type of player who fits the template as a former walk-on who carved out a role as a key player for a solid team. He developed into one of the best players on offense for Kansas State the past two seasons as they won 19 games.
Sinnott played all over the formation for the Wildcats, seeing reps inline, in the slot, on the wing and at fullback. He recorded 80 catches for 1,123 yards and 10 touchdowns over the past two seasons and won the award for college football’s top fullback. Perhaps that classification is another reason he didn’t draw a lot of attention.
He continued to fly under the radar until the NFL Scouting Combine. Former walk-ons aren’t known for being elite athletes but Sinnott turned in some outstanding times. At 6-4 and 250 pounds, Sinnott ran a 4.68-second 40-yard dash, jumped 40 inches in the vertical and 10-foot-6 in the broad, plus notched a 4.23-second short shuttle and 6.82-second three-cone drill. Using Kent Lee Platte’s Relative Athletic Score, Sinnott tested at a 9.73 out of a possible 10 — aka like an elite athlete.
Now Sinnott has the league’s attention with several official 30 visits scheduled. There’s even been a little bit of buzz that Sinnott or another player could topple the hierarchy that’s been assumed for months at the position. Since before the start of this past college football season, nearly all rankings have had Georgia TE Brock Bowers at No. 1 and Texas TE Ja’Tavion Sanders at No. 2, then a wide gap to everyone else. Bowers remains at the top but the gap between Sanders and players like Sinnott seems to have closed. Speaking of which…
Overrated: Texas TE Ja’Tavion Sanders
As noted above, Sanders has been the consensus TE2 in this class since last summer and has generally been viewed as a late-first or second-round prospect. He went to a good football program at Texas and has been productive, with 1,295 yards receiving on 99 catches and seven touchdowns the past two seasons.
But Sanders did not test like an elite athlete. He measured in just under 6-4 like Sinnott, the exact same height in fact, but at under 250 pounds. His 40 time of 4.69 seconds was strong but Sanders’ jumps and agility drills were far poorer. He recorded a 30-inch vertical, 9-foot-6 broad and a 4.32 second short shuttle, no three cone time. Sanders’ RAS was 5.75 compared to 9.73 for Sinnott — much closer to average.
Sanders was already viewed as more of a receiving prospect instead of a well-rounded blocker due to his lack of bulk. And to be fair, athletic ability and receiving ability are not the same skills. But if we’re looking to identify which tight ends have high-level upside as receiving threats, there’s a thread to draw between athleticism and production. Josh Norris of Underdog Fantasy Sports has pointed this out.
RAS is not a perfect composite score for athleticism
and Pro Bowl appearances is not a perfect depiction of talent
But with Tight Ends working out tonight, I want to stress how important athleticism is to the position to become one of the "elites"
👀👀 green vs yellow vs red pic.twitter.com/DeTPeyjQo7
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) March 1, 2024
To borrow a line from Norris — not all special athletes are great tight ends. But most great tight ends are special athletes.
If Sanders — a receiving-forward tight end prospect — is only average as an athlete, that suggests the odds are he’ll be only average as a receiving threat in the NFL. That’s hard for me to reconcile with his current ranking as a top-50 prospect on most boards. If you took away the names and just showed the production and testing for Sanders and Sinnott, Sanders is the one who would profile more like a mid-round pick.
Underrated: TCU TE Jared Wiley
As the draft process has progressed, Wiley is one of the lower-tier tight ends that has drawn more attention. In terms of production, his career was mostly nondescript. Wiley spent three years at Texas before transferring to TCU. He started as a senior before returning for a fifth year and experiencing his breakout season, recording 47 catches for 520 yards and eight touchdowns.
That’s not why the NFL is interested in Wiley, though. He’s massive at 6-6 and 250 pounds, with a frame some scouts think can carry more weight. While RAS is weighted toward bigger athletes like Wiley, his testing was still impressive. He ran a 4.62-second 40, jumped 37 inches in the vertical and 9-foot-10 in the broad and notched a 7.19-second three-cone drill. Those are outstanding size, speed and explosion numbers for an athlete Wiley’s size.
In the NFL, Wiley likely fills a role as a seam-stretcher with his size and speed combination. He’s also a threat in the red zone with his hulking frame. Right at this moment, he might not be as skilled as a player like Sanders, and it does matter that Sanders was able to earn significant playing time and production at a school Wiley had to transfer from.
The NFL is a different beast, however. Wiley has a few trump cards Sanders can’t play at the professional level, including better speed, better athleticism and better size, allowing him potentially the ability to play inline. Wiley was also a better red zone player even in college and has the skill set to fill that role in the NFL.
At this point, it still seems like Sanders is ticketed for Day 2 and Wiley is an early Day 3 pick. But just like Sinnott, there’s been some buzz around Wiley as well as a player who could go earlier than expected, even higher than Sanders.
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