Week 1 of the NFL season is an infamous liar. It’s the first real football action for months, and it’s prone to wild swings and wacky results that normalize over the course of a full season. For instance, last year the Raiders, who would go on to earn the No. 1 pick, beat the Patriots, who lost just three games all season and represented the AFC in the Super Bowl. 

That was the weirdest Week 1 result but it was far from the only eyebrow-raiser. The Jets and Steelers put up 66 points in a shootout, and both offenses went on to finish the year ranked 25th and 29th in yardage. In his first career start, Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns in a comeback over the Bears. 

We’ll have the benefit of hindsight to cut through all the noise in just a few weeks but waiting that long is less fun. So let’s play a little game of truth or lies with some of Week 1’s most surprising results. 

Bengals have a Super Bowl defense? 

Verdict: True

The Bengals invested a ton into their defense this offseason. They spent in free agency to bring in DE Boye Mafe, S Bryan Cook and DT Jonathan Allen, then they forked over the No. 10 pick to get DT Dexter Lawrence in a trade. It’s safe to say those moves paid off instantly. The Bengals forced four turnovers in a 33-27 win that wasn’t quite as close as that final score suggests. Cincinnati gifted Tampa Bay a pick-six but still kept a very good Bucs offense at arm’s length for most of the day. 

The most dominant sequence was in the first half. Bengals DE Myles Murphy and LB Barrett Carter crunched Bucs QB Baker Mayfield outside of the pocket and LB Demetrius Knight scooped up the caroming ball, taking it in for a score. The Bengals forced another fumble on the ensuing drive and turned that drive into a touchdown, then forced yet another fumble on Mayfield as he was scrambling just before he crossed the goal line. Cincinnati added a fourth fumble and recovery for good measure in the fourth quarter. 

The fumble luck won’t run that hot for the Bengals every week but there are a few incredibly encouraging takeaways. The Bengals addressed every level of their defense but chose to run it back with young linebackers Knight and Carter despite some truly atrocious moments as rookies. Both came up big on multiple plays Sunday, with Knight scoring and Carter getting the huge strip on Mayfield right before he was about to score that proved to be a huge tipping point in the game. 

Cincinnati’s pass rush was also significantly better than last year, harrying Mayfield all day and finishing the day with four sacks. The Bengals came in waves — with Mafe providing exactly what the Bengals hoped for when they targeted him in free agency and Murphy continuing his career progression. Lawrence and Allen were disruptive up the middle, while second-round DE Cashius Howell showed he wasn’t just a training camp fluff story, even if he was kept off the stat sheet. 

One game is one game, but it’s eye-catching how the Bengals took apart an offense that has a great offensive line, a veteran quarterback with multiple years of high-end production and a deep group of skill players. It wasn’t even the best day for the Bengals’ offense, but it didn’t have to be. That’s a good sign for a team that’s been open about its Super Bowl goals. 

Breakout for Bryce Young?

Verdict: We’ll see

It would be tough to ask for a much better start to the season for Young, apart from one or two plays and obviously a W. But Young doesn’t play defense and doesn’t have much control over allowing nearly 60 points to the Bears. He went swing for swing with Chicago QB Caleb Williams and HC Ben Johnson for most of the day, ending the game with 361 passing yards, three scores through the air, a fourth on the ground and 37 points on the board. 

Young passed the eye test, too. He completed 23 of 37 passes, including some tight window throws deep down the field. Young looked in control of the offense and coolly navigated the pocket for most of the day, either to buy time to get a pass off or to hurt the defense with his legs on occasion. 

In short, he looked a lot like the quarterback at Alabama who won the Heisman and asserted himself as the No. 1 pick. 

If Young keeps up that level for the rest of the season, it would be huge for both his future with the Panthers and their outlook as an organization. The team has taken a wait-and-see approach with Young given his struggles in his first few years and the risk in paying the wrong quarterback a mega-deal. But this is a franchise that has been desperate for a franchise quarterback, and the Panthers want Young to give them a reason to believe. 

Can he? It’s encouraging that he followed up glowing training camp reports with a strong Week 1 performance. But he’ll also see far better defenses on the schedule than the Bears, who were undermanned in both the secondary and the pass rush. Young’s shown the last two seasons that his floor is higher than the worst-case scenario his rookie year implied. The big question with him is still his ceiling. Can he quarterback the Panthers to wins against the best defenses on the schedule, the ones they’d have to get through to win a Super Bowl? 

That remains to be seen. 

Did Drake Maye regress from his MVP season?

Verdict: Lie

Maye was within one vote of winning MVP last season. But his last two games, both against the Seahawks, have been rough. The Super Bowl meltdown has been well-covered, but in that game Maye’s protection had no answers for Seattle’s pass rush. 

The season opener last Wednesday was different. Maye’s front five played much better, particularly LT Will Campbell who was credited with allowing just one pressure. There was room for improvement in the run game but Maye had a lot of clean pockets and time to throw. He just gifted the Seahawks three interceptions on awful throws and decisions. 

Pick No. 1 was a YOLO ball into double coverage. Did Maye get a little unlucky with the tip and the pick? Yes, but it was still a poor decision to let that ball go. Pick No. 2 was a lollipop over the middle with the safety in great position to break on the ball. And most egregiously, Pick No. 3 should have been thrown away to preserve the chance for the field goal and the tie, not airmailed into harm’s way in the end zone. 

It was an awful game, no way to sugarcoat it. I’m not so ready to pile on with the rush of “overrated” or “regression” sentiments on social media and debate shows, though. Maye just turned 24 years old, and for all his success last year, it’s important to remember he’s still a young quarterback. It’s normal for young passers to go through bouts of inconsistency as their decision-making matures and they build their mental catalog of looks. The more they play, the more they understand how to attack defenses and the harder it is for defensive coordinators to get the drop on them. 

There’s a viral stat about Maye having a 0-12 record against teams with a winning record that is just false and has unfortunately been amplified by search engines’ reliance on AI summaries. The splits for his stats against good defenses versus bad are real, but they are also true for just about every single quarterback. Everyone plays better against bad defenses than good. 

The Seahawks are also better equipped than most defenses to give Maye a hard time, and the last two games have made it clear they have his number. Maye will have to wait a while to get that monkey off his back but I do expect him to respond. Everyone wants young players, quarterbacks especially, to have nothing but a smooth upward trajectory. Development isn’t always linear, though. This is a setback for Maye but it can also be a valuable learning experience. 

The Cardinals are way better than we expected; the Chargers are way worse? 

Verdict: Lie/Truth

Arizona’s 26-14 victory over the Chargers is probably the most shocking result of the Week 1 slate. The Cardinals were the biggest underdog of the week, coming in as nine-point underdogs on the road to Los Angeles. Instead, they won by 12, and it was clear early in the fourth quarter that they were in complete control of this game. 

The perception of these two teams couldn’t have been more diametrically opposed coming into the season. Most people (hand up here) thought the Cardinals were essentially tanking this year to try and land a quarterback after things didn’t work out with Kyler Murray. Meanwhile, the Chargers were getting love as potential dark horse Super Bowl contenders, and QB Justin Herbert had the fourth-best pre-Week 1 odds for MVP because of the high hopes for him in new OC Mike McDaniel’s offense. 

You kind of got the sense the Chargers felt like they needed to make a big statement in this game against this opponent with all the expectations. There were a lot of moments where it felt like they were pressing. They had a 4th and goal from the 3 at the two-minute warning down 10-7, and decided to go for the throat rather than kick a short tying field goal. Herbert was sacked for a loss of 10 yards. 

In the second half, Herbert kept launching rockets. One drew a big pass interference that set up a touchdown, cutting the deficit to 16-14. However, more often than not it was inefficient. One ball he heaved deep into double coverage was intercepted when the Chargers were down 23-14 but there was still 9:39 left — plenty of time for a more methodical approach. Herbert also got WR Ladd McConkey hurt on a hospital ball over the middle. 

The Chargers also self-destructed in ways that will feel familiar to the fanbase. That 23-14 lead came after a blocked punt set the Cardinals up with a short field in the second half. On the drive after the interception, the Chargers had two false starts and a holding penalty on three straight plays, then burned a timeout to avoid a delay of game. McDaniel’s offense is terrifying when it’s firing on all cylinders but there’s also a big mental load on players and the quarterback with all the shifts and motions, which can lead to more penalties. The Chargers clearly still have kinks to work out. 

Meanwhile on the other side of the ball, the Cardinals were able to string a lot of possessions together on offense. Veteran QB Jacoby Brissett had a good day spreading the ball around to his weapons, completing 27 of 37 passes for 277 yards, one touchdown and no picks. Star TE Trey McBride had nine for 95 and the score, while veteran WR Kendrick Bourne racked up eight catches for 75 yards. First-round RB Jeremiyah Love got in the end zone for the first time in his career, while WRs Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. also chipped in with big plays. 

Arizona has pretty solid weapons but it’s notable that the Cardinals had as much success as they did against a Chargers defense that was No. 5 in total defense last year and returned most of the unit. They did lose former DC Jesse Minter, who had a terrific debut with the Ravens, and it was a question mark of how new DC Chris O’Leary would do even if he was keeping the system the same. 

So what do we do with these teams going forward? For the Cardinals, they do still have a talent disparity compared to most of their opponents this year. They’re not as undermanned on offense but we’ve seen this same story with Brissett before. He’ll have these stretches where he piles up completions and yards, yet there’s a reason he’s been a journeyman who’s playing for his seventh team. As impressive as this debut was, I think the Cardinals end up turning back into a pumpkin before too long. 

The concerns with the Chargers are a little harder to dismiss. On offense, there’s enough of a track record of success between Herbert and McDaniel for me to bet on them cleaning things up going forward. It helps that there were a lot of explosive moments even in the loss. However, the defensive performance was concerning. There are definitely cracks the Cardinals exposed that other teams will be looking to take advantage of. The Chargers need to generate more pressure and tighten up their zone coverage, otherwise they’re going to be hard-pressed to keep up in the AFC

Dream Team” Rams already on the ropes?

Verdict: True

The Rams laid a big ‘ol platypus egg in their trip to Australia, getting dominated in just about every phase of the game by the 49ers in a 27-7 loss. The offense mustered only seven points as QB Matthew Stafford was stopped on a sneak from the one-yard line, threw a pick on another drive and never seemed to find a rhythm. 

The more concerning performance was from the defense, though. Most of the headline additions this offseason were to Los Angeles’ defense — CB Trent McDuffie, CB Jaylen Watson and of course DE Myles Garrett and DT Aaron Donald. Even if Donald wasn’t playing in Week 1, that was still a considerable injection of firepower to a unit that finished top 10 in scoring defense in 2025. 

Yet the 49ers bullied them up and down the field on long drives, running the ball effectively and hitting those play-action daggers when they needed to. 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan was dialed in all day and it seemed like the 49ers had the perfect play just about every time. It was a throwback to the start of this decade when the 49ers had the Rams’ number, winning nine of 10 matchups from the calendar years 2019 through 2023 (the lone win was in the NFC title game in in 2022, which I’m sure Shanahan would trade for the rest). 

Worst of all, Garret, who had a bagel on the stat sheet, was placed on injured reserve on Sunday, sidelining him for at least four games while he works through a knee cleanup. The Rams clearly want him healthy for higher-leverage games in the second half of the season but they are already in a hole by falling to 0-1 both overall and in the division. The next four games are home against the Giants on Monday Night Football, on the road against the Broncos on Sunday night, again on the road all the way to the East Coast against the Eagles, then back home against the Bills. 

That is a gauntlet. The silver lining is that two of those games are intra-conference and shouldn’t have much impact on seeding in the NFC. But if the Rams team that showed up in Australia re-emerges stateside, Los Angeles will be lucky to come out of that stretch 1-3. That would probably put the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage out of reach, and it would leave the Rams behind the curve in the wild card race. 

Obviously the season isn’t over. The Rams still get another shot at the 49ers, plus two games against the Seahawks. All three of those games are in December. Everything Los Angeles wants is still ahead of them — if they take care of business. 

If the Rams are truly a Super Bowl contender, you want to see them come out of the next four games with a winning record at minimum. To do that, the Rams might need Donald to put the cape back on, even if the vision at first was for him to be a complementary player. Remember, the Rams traded DE Jared Verse to get Garrett, and he was a huge piece of their pass rush last year. So they don’t have a backstop for Garrett unless someone on the roster right now steps up.