Week 1, like it is every year, was so much fun. Kickoff night got us started with a down-to-the-wire finish, and Sunday’s slate was full of impressive comebacks and tight games. Offense exploded across the league, with the 791 points scored tying 2012 for the Week 1 record in the Super Bowl era.

Now that the dust has settled and we’re into Week 2, it’s time to sift through the noise, so to speak. Week 1 always spawns a bunch of overreactions, whether it be a star performer who didn’t pull through or an expected bottom-dweller team pulling an upset. There’s always lots to talk about, and some of it will carry through the season while other data points will be looked back on as Week 1 folly. My job today is to determine which is which for a handful of the strongest takes and narratives that emerged from the season’s opening week of action.

To kick things off, let’s start with that monster Monday night performance in Kansas City:

Overreaction: The Chiefs are back.

I had more than my share of doubts about this Chiefs team. They weren’t a playoff team last year even before MVP QB Patrick Mahomes suffered his season-ending knee injury. Now, not only was he coming off that injury, but the roster around him got worse. Kansas City started an undrafted guard at left tackle, three rookies played key roles on defense and the vibes were in question heading into Monday night’s opener.

But the Chiefs signed Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency, so none of the rest matters. Walker was unbelievable, rushing for 173 yards and a touchdown on just 23 carries, good for a 7.5 yards-per-carry average. He forced a whopping 14 missed tackles on carries alone and had a 90.5 PFF rushing grade. He was arguably the best player of the entire week, and the Chiefs rolled to a 31-10 victory at home over the Broncos.

Walker was so good, he had 179 yards after contact on the ground. You may notice that’s more yards after contact than he had rushing yards total. That’s because he had -6 rushing yards before contact on the night, a testament to two things. One, the Broncos couldn’t tackle. And two, the Chiefs couldn’t block. Despite Walker’s incredible night, Kansas City’s offensive line ranked in the bottom third across the league, according to PFF.

To protect their undermanned offensive line, the Chiefs kept everything short and quick in the passing game. Mahomes had just a 4.6 average depth of target and a 2.59-second average time to throw, yet he was still sacked twice. Perhaps Walker can carry them to more impressive wins like this by himself, but the rest of the offense will likely need to do more in the future — on the other hand, doing this against the Broncos’ defense is a good sign.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs held Denver to the worst EPA per play on offense in Week 1. That’s an impressive accomplishment, but the Broncos weren’t all that consistent on offense last year. They had one of the highest three-and-out rates in the league and were prime regression candidates coming into the season.

While this was no doubt a huge win and Chiefs fans should be excited, I do want to pump the brakes a bit. There were some concerning trends even in a dominant win, and without Walker going superhuman, this offense could struggle like it did last year. For now, I’m selling this overreaction, but it is one I’m watching, especially when (if?) the offensive line gets healthy.

Verdict: Selling…for now

Overreaction: The Broncos are cooked.

On the flip side of that dominating Chiefs performance was a Broncos team that couldn’t get anything going all night, on either side of the ball. What had been arguably the best defense in the NFL coming into the season missed a ridiculous 28 tackles on Monday night, while the offense mustered just one touchdown in a rather pathetic showing. This Denver team was in the AFC Championship Game a year ago, and might’ve won it had QB Bo Nix not broken his ankle in the divisional round. So what happened?

Well, as I said, the Broncos were already major regression candidates. In 2025, Denver was just 22nd in the league in EPA success rate, measuring the consistency of an offense. They were 19th in percentage of drives that resulted in a score, 16th in offensive success rate and bottom five in three-and-out rate. Denver had plenty of explosive plays, too, but these stats describe a pretty average (or even a below-average) offense buoyed by high conversion rates in key situations.

Functionally, this means that the Broncos were a crazy high regression candidate entering 2026. Being a below average offense most of the time, then an elite offense in critical moments, means the stat more likely to convey to the next season is the one with the larger sample size. In other words, the Broncos were always more likely to trend toward average on offense.

It’s not all bad. Nix, historically, has one of the lowest sack rates in the league, taking just 24 in 2025. He took four in Week 1. Behind one of the best offensive lines in football, I’d expect that to correct itself. Additionally, trading for WR Jaylen Waddle should make this unit more capable and explosive. 

On the other side of the ball, ED Jonathan Cooper being on the Commissioner Exempt List doesn’t help anything. But the Broncos defense is one of the best in the league, and I don’t expect those missed tackles to carry over. The offensive concerns, however, are very real.

Verdict: Selling on defense, buying on offense

Overreaction: The Cowboys defense is in trouble again.

All offseason, we were promised the Cowboys would be better on defense. “Christian Parker is the future,” they said. “Our new scheme is a better fit for our personnel,” they said. “Our young talent will play better and be more consistent,” they said.

And what happened? The Cowboys put in the worst defensive performance of the week by efficiency (yes, even worse than whatever the Colts and Panthers were doing out there). They allowed the Giants to convert an absurd nine of 11 third downs. That’s an obscene conversion rate. Dallas ranked last among all defenses in Week 1, allowing a near-60 percent success rate for New York’s offense, and ranked 31st in EPA per play allowed.

There really isn’t enough I can write about how bad the Cowboys were on defense. And the worst part is, once again, it let down a good Dallas offense. The Cowboys converted eight of their 11 third downs and scored touchdowns on both of their second-half possessions. But that’s the thing — Dallas only had two drives in the second half. Two!

The Cowboys hired Parker as their new defensive coordinator this offseason, and he’s seen as a rising star in the coaching world. Coming from the Vic Fangio tree, he wants to play a five-down, man-heavy scheme. Miscommunications and blown assignments ran rampant in the Cowboys’ defense Sunday night, usually indicative of coaching issues. It’s not impossible to fix, and Dallas’ defense is better on paper this year. So far, the early returns are alarm-raising for me, though.

Verdict: Buying

Overreaction: The Rams’ Super Bowl chances are already dead in the water.

The 2026 season could not have gotten off to a worse start for the Rams. The heavy Super Bowl favorites laid a dud against the 49ers, losing by 20 in a game that was never in doubt after the first quarter. The offense struggled to get anything going, the defense couldn’t get off the field on third down and Los Angeles turned the ball over twice.

To add insult to injury, big-ticket trade acquisition Myles Garrett was just placed on injured reserve after undergoing an arthroscopic knee cleanup, something the Rams hope will get him back to full strength before too long. Still, he’ll be sidelined at least four games, and the Rams play an absolute gauntlet during that stretch, starting with the Giants before taking on the Broncos, Eagles and Bills.

It’s an inauspicious start to the season, to be sure, but some context is important here. The 49ers are coached by one of the best offensive minds in the game today in Kyle Shanahan, and he created a masterful game plan to attack this Rams defense. In order to neutralize Los Angeles’ pass rush, he kept San Francisco’s offense quick and horizontal. 49ers QB Brock Purdy averaged just a 2.75-second time to throw, and his average depth of target was below five yards.

For as much as was made about Garrett’s ineffectiveness in this game, even aside from the injury, the truth is the 49ers avoided as many true pass rush situations as they could. The Rams struggled to stop the run, which is a concern, but the Rams offense was far bigger an issue in Week 1.

Reigning MVP Matthew Stafford was atrocious against San Francisco. His adjusted completion percentage was below 60 percent and he had two near-interceptions. This overshadowed a pretty strong Rams rushing attack, as Stafford let the offense down on multiple occasions. Los Angeles went just 2-9 on third downs, with Stafford the primary culprit.

Then there’s the Australia of it all. While the 49ers set up there for the week prior to the game, the Rams flew in less than 48 hours before kickoff and flew out as soon as they could. Rams HC Sean McVay treated the destination game as something of an annoyance, and he built a plan around getting back stateside as soon as possible. We’ll see how each team looks in Week 2, but the 49ers won the travel plans bowl in Week 1.

Overall, I’m not worried about Stafford and this offense. And even without Garrett, this defense has a lot of talent. After a poor Week 1 performance against a strong NFC rival, I’m not ready to write this team off.

Verdict: Selling

Overreaction: The Bengals are real contenders.

In past years, the Bengals lived and died with their passing game. Star QB Joe Burrow has a pair of elite wide receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the former Heisman Trophy winner diced up defenses week in, week out. Even though his defense was leaky and his offensive line could hardly block a soul, Burrow held the Bengals up near the top of the AFC for a few years before failing to make the playoffs over the last three.

Those narratives flipped in Week 1, though. The Bengals defense played a great game against a productive Bucs offense, forcing four fumbles and harassing Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield to the tune of four sacks and a return touchdown. The Bengals outgained their opponent by nearly 100 yards and were more efficient on third downs, too.

Not only that, but this offensive line has quietly become one of the league’s best. They showcased a lot of improvement last year, but took it even a step further last week. Burrow had the lowest pressure rate of any quarterback in the league in Week 1, a stat that would’ve been completely foreign to Cincy fans just two seasons ago.

The concern here is the Bengals defense wasn’t actually all that elite down to down. They ranked in the middle of the pack in stats like team PFF grade and EPA per play allowed, despite the multitude of big plays and turnovers they forced. Outside of those huge leverage plays, the Bucs moved the ball pretty consistently, and this was a one-score game by the end. Obviously, those big plays count the same as any other, but fumbles tend to be fluky and defenses that rely on turnovers to get stops often regress hard season-to-season or even week-to-week.

That said, the Bengals don’t need an elite defense. Given their improved offensive line and running game combined with this explosive passing game, if Cincinnati gets even average defensive play on the other side of the ball, this team can play deep into January. The AFC is wide open, but the Bengals might be able to hang with the best.

Verdict: Buying