Eight Bold Predictions For The 2024 NFL Season

One of the things I appreciate about being an NFL aggregator is the sheer quantity of information for all 32 teams we sift through. In a given week we’ll read dozens of articles, tens of thousands of words and hundreds of tweets — and even more during peak times of the calendar. 

Year over year, that level of information intake starts to stack up. By the time Week 1 rolls around, I usually have a batch of hot takes about the upcoming season that has come to me via osmosis as all that information percolates. That makes this the perfect time for a bold predictions article. 

Last year was an uncommonly good year for me as a prognosticator. I hit on two out of six predictions outright and came close on three others. The biggest outright whiff was picking the Panthers to win the NFC South (yikes).

This year, I have eight bold calls, which I’m defining as predictions that run counter to the mainstream consensus. 

Let’s get bold: 

The Cowboys miss the playoffs because their defense takes a big step back under DC Mike Zimmer

Predicting the Cowboys to take a step back isn’t necessarily running counter to the mainstream, as the vibes in Dallas are as bad as they’ve been in a while. The Cowboys’ offseason was defined by a lack of action, letting far more players walk out the door than were brought in and dragging their feet on contract extensions for WR CeeDee Lamb and QB Dak Prescott. A ton of key figures, including HC Mike McCarthy, are entering contract years and the pressure is enormous. Dallas is a popular team to diss right now, even if the books still think the Cowboys will be solid with a betting line of 9.5 wins. 

Still, it’s guys like owner Jerry Jones, McCarthy and Prescott who get the bulk of the flak when it comes to the Cowboys and their 2024 prospects. The bigger problem, in my opinion, is on defense where former Vikings HC Mike Zimmer is taking over as defensive coordinator for Dan Quinn, who left to join the Commanders in his second gig as a head coach. Zimmer has an extensive resume, compiling a 72-56-1 record in Minnesota and overseeing nine top-five finishes on defense in 22 years, including seven years as the defensive coordinator for the Cowboys in the early 2000s. 

But there are signs that the game is starting to pass by the 68-year-old Zimmer. His defenses declined precipitously in his final two years with the Vikings, finishing 27th and 30th in yards allowed and 29th and 24th in scoring in 2020 and 2021. He hasn’t coached for two years, holding consulting and advisor roles before landing in Dallas. It also seemed like the old-school Zimmer found it increasingly hard to relate to his players. There weren’t many Vikings who seemed sad to see him go and the feeling was mutual. 

“They asked me if I wanted to address the team,” Zimmer told Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune in a recent interview about the end of his time with the Vikings. “And I said, ‘Hell, no. They got me fired.”

The famously prickly Zimmer took all kinds of other shots in that interview, including at former Vikings GM Rick Spielman. It fits with Zimmer’s reputation of being willing to blame others when things go wrong, which is exactly the kind of attitude that can be explosive in a high-pressure situation like the Cowboys find themselves in. Zimmer already had a bit of a run-in with star LB Micah Parsons back in the spring, which seems to have been smoothed over for now but is another reminder of new age/old school divide between Zimmer and the current generation of players. 

The good news is the Cowboys still have a lot of talent to work with and Zimmer’s track record is too good to dismiss out of hand. But I learned a lesson from how bullish I was on the Panthers and HC Frank Reich last year. The NFL evolves rapidly and there’s no room for coaches who won’t or can’t adapt to keep up. 

And “adaptable” is not an adjective many people have used to describe Mike Zimmer. 

Sam Darnold has a career year for the Vikings at quarterback

I’m not going to go so far as to say Darnold will revive his career the same way we’ve seen some other notable quarterback busts accomplish in recent years. But this is easily the best situation he’s had as a professional since being selected with the No. 3 pick in 2018 by the Jets. This Vikings’ offensive line could be the best one Darnold has played behind, he has two first-round wideouts to throw to and HC Kevin O’Connell is the best play-caller Darnold has worked with outside of spot appearances last year for the 49ers and HC Kyle Shanahan. 

O’Connell has shown a Shanahan-like ability to elevate his quarterbacks in just two years on the job, getting some of the best play of veteran QB Kirk Cousins’ career and preventing the season from going off the rails when Cousins’ torn Achilles thrust the Vikings onto the quarterback merry-go-round for the last half of last season. There are real flaws he’ll have to overcome with Darnold, like a tendency to self-destruct when pressured and commit catastrophic, brain-dead turnovers. 

But Darnold was also the No. 3 pick for a reason. He’s got a lot of arm talent, including both arm strength and accuracy, and is an underrated runner who can cause issues with his legs. The reviews of him from spring and summer — when quarterbacks can’t be hit — were glowing from the Vikings and the plan was for Darnold to start a significant chunk of the season while first-round QB J.J. McCarthy was brought along slowly. 

Darnold has a low bar to clear to have a “career best” season. Up until now, his second year with the Jets probably represents the high mark with a 62 percent completion percentage, just over 3,000 yards passing, 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 13 starts with a 7-6 record. Minnesota would probably be happy with something in that neighborhood. 

Anything better could be a legitimate career revival for Darnold and put him back in demand as a potential starter. It could also make things fascinating for Minnesota’s long-term outlook with McCarthy set to miss his entire rookie year, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here. 

Geno Smith is good — really good — and the Seahawks exceed expectations

I understand last year was a statistical step back for Smith and the Seahawks missed the postseason. But he’s still criminally underrated in my opinion. It seems everyone has quarterback rankings these days and the vast majority of them have Smith in the bottom half of the league. 

The rankings that matter the most are the QB Tiers from the Athletic’s Mike Sando, as they’re based on a poll of actual key NFL decision-makers. It’s the closest thing we get to a scientific look at how the NFL classifies the quarterback pecking order. Smith ranks 20th in these, at the bottom of the Tier 3 classification which is defined as “a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.”

I think that’s selling Smith short and he deserves to be closer to the top 10 quarterbacks than the bottom 10. In two years as the starter, Smith has shown himself to be a proficient thrower of the football and an underrated playmaker. In his breakout 2022 season, Smith led the NFL with a 69.8 completion percentage and that wasn’t juiced by a ton of short throws. He had the fourth-best completion percentage on deep passes that year, per PFF. Last year, Smith was pressured on 223 dropbacks — seventh-most in the league — but had a pressure-to-sack percentage of 13.9 percent — the sixth-best mark in the league. 

The big issue last year with Seattle was injuries on the offensive line which killed the running game and put the passing game under a lot of duress. Smith wasn’t exactly able to thrive but he still played well under the circumstances. The offensive line is still a bit of a question mark this year but there’s a lot of optimism it can be better than it was last year. 

Overall, it feels like the Seahawks are flying under the radar a bit in the first year of the post-Pete Carroll era. New HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb are both NFL first-timers in their respective roles, and it seems like the uncertainty is sparking trepidation. Seattle tends to slot in the early 20s in most power rankings and their betting lines range from 7.5 to 8.5 wins depending on the book. Given the history of first-time coaches and coordinators, that’s fair. 

However, I think there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about both Macdonald and Grubb hitting the ground running. Grubb was calling plays at the University of Washington the past few years as they put up video game numbers, and his scheme is regarded as more pro-friendly than a lot of other college offenses. Macdonald has coached one of the league’s top defenses for the past two years and is the architect of the new en vogue system on that side of the ball. Good X’s and O’s can separate teams and I think the Seahawks have a lot of upside in this area. 

Combine that with a roster that has a lot of established talent and a borderline top-10 quarterback, and I think the Seahawks are legitimate threats to win the division even in what’s looking like a pretty strong NFC West. At minimum, they should be wildcard contenders and Smith should be a candidate for his third straight Pro Bowl. There were questions this offseason about Smith’s status with Seattle and even about the possibility of him losing his job to Sam Howell. If Smith has the year I think he can, those will be a distant memory. 

First-round WR Rome Odunze is Chicago’s No. 1 by November

One of the hot takes I had around the draft is that it wasn’t just Marvin Harrison Jr. and the field at wide receiver. It felt like the top of this receiver class was a 1A/1B/1C situation between Harrison, Malik Nabers and Odunze. All three were immensely talented prospects with the potential to be true No. 1 receivers at the NFL level. 

Harrison and Nabers each landed in situations where they were clearly the undisputed No. 1s in their respective offenses from Day 1. Odunze landed in Chicago and has been overshadowed by Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore, both of whom are coming off outstanding seasons as No. 1 options for the Chargers and Bears respectively. I don’t expect Odunze to eclipse them — right away. 

But by the time the season hits the halfway mark or so, I think Odunze’s talent will be undeniable. Allen has been a great player for a long time but he’s 32 years old and the age cliff can hit fast for wide receivers. It’s been hard to get a read this preseason whether he’s lost a step and gained too much weight or if he’s just an 11-year pro understandably taking it easy on exhibition reps. Moore is coming off a career year with 1,364 yards receiving and eight touchdowns even amidst some offensive struggles for the Bears in 2022, but he’s always been more of a high-end No. 2 than a true No. 1 wideout. 

Odunze has that kind of complete skillset, however. He’s got size, speed, route-running chops, contested catch proficiency and an underrated gear after the catch. Most importantly, he’s wired like a 10-year vet already with terrific football character and work ethic. That sort of combination of talent and work ethic is how you get special players, and I think Odunze is going to show the league sooner rather than later that he’s a special player. Regardless, the Bears are in good shape with whatever happens. 

The Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes go nuclear

Predicting the Chiefs to be one of the best teams in the league this year isn’t going out on any kind of limb. They had a terrific offseason after winning the Super Bowl, returning most of last year’s outstanding defense and restocking the weaponry around Mahomes. Kansas City has its sights firmly set on a record-setting third-straight Super Bowl win and they are the preseason favorites to win it all. 

I will take it a step further, though. This year is setting up for Mahomes and the Chiefs to go nuclear on the league like they did in Mahomes’ first year as a starter when he hit the NFL with a barrage of 50 touchdown passes. He has the weaponry to do that again with a healthy TE Travis Kelce — who I will assert is not washed up as some suppose — and a dose of speed injected into the receiving corps with Marquise Brown and first-rounder Xavier Worthy. That will put the deep threat back into the offense and create more space for Kelce and Rashee Rice to work the intermediate areas. 

Combined with a defense that should be in the top ten or top five range yet again, and this is setting up to be a signature year for Mahomes and HC Andy Reid. 

The Broncos beat their betting line

This would have been a much bolder prediction three weeks ago before a few members of the national media started jumping on the bandwagon and first-round QB Bo Nix started getting some preseason hype. On NFL Network, Peter Schrager even predicted Denver would make the playoffs as a wildcard team. I don’t know that I’m quite that bullish on the Broncos. 

I feel much more confident that Denver will beat their betting line of 5.5 wins, however. That projection would put them among the worst teams in the NFL and in line for a top-five draft pick. I think that’s underselling the Broncos, who are much closer to being average than they are terrible even if they are rebuilding. 

It all starts with HC Sean Payton. It might be fair to question if at 60 years old and with no Hall of Famer under center, Payton has lost his fastball. The last two offenses Payton called (2021 with the Saints and 2023 with the Broncos) finished 19th in scoring and bottom quartile in yards. As noted above with Zimmer, the NFL is not kind to coaches who can’t evolve. 

However, I’m okay with giving Payton a little more benefit of the doubt than Zimmer. He’s been a head coach for 16 years and in that time his worst record has been 7-9. Last year’s Broncos team finished 8-9 despite the issues on both sides of the ball. I don’t think the Broncos will be that much worse on offense, even with a rookie quarterback taking over for Russell Wilson. Nix is a far better fit for what Payton wants to do than Wilson was. 

On defense, I think there’s a chance the Broncos make real improvements. Denver DC Vance Joseph has a solid track record as a coach and he has more to work with in 2024 than he did last year. Obviously CB Patrick Surtain II is the mainstay and the face of the unit, but there are options at the other spot across from him now and the Broncos found a diamond in the rough with slot CB Ja’Quan McMillian. The front seven is chockful of solid players like DE Zach Allen, DE John Franklin-Myers, DT D.J. Jones, OLB Baron Browning, OLB Jonathon Cooper, OLB Nik Bonitto and LB Alex Singleton. There isn’t a star in that group (yet) but as a whole, the group is underrated and could be better than the sum of its parts. 

Overall I just don’t see the Broncos as being materially worse than last year’s 8-9 squad. Taking on more than $85 million in dead money from moving on from Wilson means the team is by definition rebuilding, and there were some other notable losses like S Justin Simmons, WR Jerry Jeudy and C Lloyd Cushenberry. But if Payton can still coach at a Hall of Fame level and Nix surprises (both of which I think are real possibilities) then the Broncos could be back on track quicker than people think. 

The Steelers make the playoffs

Pittsburgh shook things up in a major way this offseason, jettisoning both OC Matt Canada and QB Kenny Pickett who had been the subject of frequent criticism. However their replacements — OC Arthur Smith, QB Russell Wilson and QB Justin Fields — are also lightning rods for criticism. Steelers HC Mike Tomlin probably isn’t in any real danger after keeping his streak of non-losing seasons alive and making the playoffs last year. He also signed a contract extension this past offseason. But Pittsburgh’s last playoff win was in 2016 and the fans are starting to get restless. 

The good news is I like the Steelers’ chances of returning to the postseason more than most in 2024. A Tomlin-coached team is always going to have a high floor and this year’s squad should be no exception. And while Smith, Wilson and Fields have been popular punching bags, I think all three fit exactly the kind of identity Tomlin wants the Steelers to have — a smashmouth, physical team that wears people down on both sides of the ball. 

Smith has fallen out of favor due to his galaxy-brained personnel usage in Atlanta, hijinks at quarterback and enmity with the fantasy football community. But the last time he was an offensive coordinator, he was helping the Titans to back-to-back finishes as a top-10 scoring offense. Smith’s bread and butter is the running game and there aren’t many coordinators who are as schematically diverse and creative in that particular area of the game than Smith. He’s got a lot to work with in Pittsburgh, too, including the duo of RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, two talented pass catchers in WR George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth, an offensive line that the Steelers have sunk a lot of resource into, and a potential X-factor in No. 2 TE Darnell Washington who blocks like a tackle. 

Both Wilson and Fields were castoffs this offseason and acquired by the Steelers on the cheap. Wilson held onto the starting job despite a training camp calf injury and while it’s not clear how much leash he has, it’s not unlimited. There’s a great chance both quarterbacks start games for the Steelers this year. Wilson has the advantage of experience, track record and a terrific deep ball even if he’s a lesser version of himself at this point in his career. Fields’ mobility makes him a headache for opposing defensive coordinators, especially in the run game under Smith. 

Both players have something to prove and can grit out ugly games, which the Steelers should be in a fair amount with how much talent they still have on defense. Between OLB T.J. Watt, S Minkah Fitzpatrick, OLB Alex Highsmith and DL Cameron Heyward, the core of this defense is still in solid shape. They added veterans like LB Patrick Queen and CB Donte Jackson to shore up weak spots and go along with ascending youngsters like DT Keeanu Benton and CB Joey Porter Jr.  

The bad news is I’m still not sure how much of a ceiling this iteration of the Steelers has with all the firepower that’s in the AFC. The early signs are that Pittsburgh has a tough schedule, too, and the AFC North is always a slugfest. Still, smashmouth teams are always tough matchups and especially late in the calendar. The Steelers might not be serious Super Bowl contenders but they’re going to ruin the season for an opponent or two. 

2024 proves the Browns should have stuck with Baker Mayfield instead of trading for Deshaun Watson

Maybe this is a subject of conversation in different corners of the NFL world than where I frequent, but I haven’t really seen this as a talking point yet. It sounds jarring at first but the more you look at it, the more obvious it seems. 

To quickly recap, Cleveland jettisoned Mayfield after four up-and-down seasons, with the highs including two playoff berths and an Offensive Rookie of the Year-caliber performance from Mayfield and the lows, well, low. The Browns had an opportunity to land Watson and sold out to make it happen, trading a mountain of picks and fully guaranteeing a five-year, $230 million contract. At the time, Watson hadn’t played in a year and was facing a suspension for two dozen lawsuits for sexual harassment, but the last time he played he was viewed as a locked-in top-10 quarterback. 

Since then, Watson’s career has been defined more by the number of games he’s missed than anything he’s done on the field. He served an 11-game suspension from the NFL for violating the personal conduct policy, then missed another 11 games last year due to an injury to his throwing shoulder. In the 12 games he played, Watson completed less than 60 percent of his passes for 2,217 yards, 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. His QBR plummeted from the 60-70 range at his peak to right around 40 each of the past two years. 

Mayfield’s career hit rock bottom after the trade, struggling through half a season with the Panthers, getting cut and claimed by the Rams and seeing spot start duty, then signing a one-year, $4 million deal to compete for the starting job with the Buccaneers. He parlayed that into a breakout season last year, setting career highs almost across the board with a 64.3 completion percentage, 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The Buccaneers won the NFC South and a playoff game and Mayfield signed a big-money extension locking him in as the starter for a couple more years. 

I think if you could give Browns GM Andrew Berry and HC Kevin Stefanski a time machine and some truth serum, they would stand pat with Mayfield instead of pursuing Watson. Even in Mayfield’s worst season with the Browns in 2021, he had comparable or better numbers than Watson has put up in the past two seasons. And of course last year Mayfield played at a level that we haven’t seen Watson hit in a while, even if the highs of Watson’s career still outpace Mayfield’s. 

The biggest factor here, however, is price. The Browns shackled themselves to Watson with the trade and the contract. If he struggles this upcoming season, the Browns will still owe him $92 million in guaranteed salary in 2025 and 2026. Cutting him next offseason would trigger a dead cap charge of over $172 million, which even with a June 1 designation would be tough to handle.

It’s no wonder the team has bent over backward to try and cater the scheme and personnel to make it work for Watson. Cleveland is poised to run an offense in 2024 that might look unrecognizable from previous iterations of the Stefanski offense, and that’s because Watson has a lot more job security than Stefanski even after the latter became one of the few two-time winners of the Coach of the Year award. 

Meanwhile Mayfield has been available for much cheaper this whole time and is currently making $33.5 million per year, reflective of an understanding about his place in the NFL pecking order as a starting-caliber quarterback, but not an elite franchise player. In hindsight, the Browns would have been much better off playing out the string with Mayfield and giving him a chance to resurrect his career before exploring their options with the picks and cash they would still have had they not traded for Watson. Instead, they got desperate. 

Perhaps Watson will revive his career in the same way other quarterbacks like Mayfield have recently. More than likely, this will become an extreme cautionary tale for NFL teams about the dangers of overconfidence. Both Berry and Stefanski have done admirably with other aspects of their jobs, but this decision looks like it could haunt them for a long time.