How Does Justin Jefferson’s New Deal Impact The WR Market?

It took over a year of negotiating but the Vikings and WR Justin Jefferson finally settled on a long-term deal that will keep the star receiver in Minnesota for the foreseeable future. 

The deal also represents a huge domino in a wide receiver market that — despite speculation to the contrary — has continued to boom. More than half a dozen wideouts including Jefferson have cashed in and there are more to come. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb and Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase are just a couple of the players whose contract negotiations will be defined by what Jefferson just did. 

For that group, Jefferson’s deal represents an important landmark that will continue to have ripple effects across the league. Here’s a deeper dive into Jefferson’s contract and the ramifications it will have for years to come. 

Inside The Justin Jefferson Contract

Jefferson signed a four-year deal worth $140 million — an average of $35 million per year that makes him the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback. It’s not just a gaudy total either. Jefferson’s contract stands up well to closer inspection:

• A “true” $35 million per year average annual salary that’s not inflated by non-guaranteed balloon years on the back end of the deal that the player is unlikely to see. 
• $110 million in total guarantees on the contract, of which just under $89 million is fully guaranteed at signing. That’s an NFL record for the receiver position and would be a healthy number even if Jefferson was a quarterback. 
• The full guarantees are for the next three years, and there are rolling salary guarantees that stretch into the fourth year of the deal. Jefferson has $14 million of his 2027 base salary that’s guaranteed for injury once he signs the deal. In 2026, that amount becomes fully guaranteed. 
• The average annual value of the deal accounts for 13.7 percent of the salary cap, which is inside the top five among receiver contracts of all-time. If you account for some funny business with other contracts, it’s top two. 

The actual wide receiver market — though robust — has been a little squishy to define over the past several years because of gimmicks put into some of the contracts. For instance, the Dolphins signed WR Tyreek Hill to a deal in 2022 that on its face was worth $30 million a year and accounted for 14.4 percent of the salary cap that year in average annual salary. That’s the current record for percentage of the cap on a new receiver extension. 

But that contract included a staggering $45 million due in the final year when Hill would be 32 which inflated the total value of the deal. Remove that and it was a three-year, $75 million deal, which still was at or near the top of the market at the time, but wasn’t a “true” $30 million per year. In fact that deal has now become slightly outdated and Hill has been lobbying Miami for an adjustment. 

Several other receivers have signed deals with these balloon years. Raiders WR Davante Adams signed a five-year, $140 million deal as a part of his trade to Las Vegas in 2022, but more than half of that is due in 2025 and 2026 when Adams will be 33 and 34 and there are no guarantees protecting it. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is due $36 million of the $120 million contract he signed in the final year of his deal but since he’ll only be 29 he has a better shot of collecting that or signing a new deal before then. 

There’s no funny business like that on Jefferson’s contract. It’s a huge deal and Jefferson has a great chance of collecting most, if not all, of it. It’s raised the salary bar at the receiver position and the net result should be positive for other receivers looking for deals. Jefferson’s deal represented a major domino that should set things in motion with several other deals. 

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb

After Jefferson, Lamb should be the next big-name receiver in line for a contract. Like Jefferson, Lamb was a first-round pick in 2020 and is entering the final year of his rookie contract on the fifth-year option in 2024. Lamb also has the benefit of coming off of a massive year where he was legitimately one of the two or three best receivers in football. He finished the 2023 season with 135 catches for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns and was deservedly named first-team All-Pro. 

Waiting to do long-term contracts has become a pattern for the Cowboys, but Lamb’s camp probably didn’t mind while Jefferson remained unsigned. Lamb’s production this past season made it a lock that his deal would be in the same zip code as Jefferson, so now the question is whether Lamb can make a credible case that he deserves to top Jefferson’s contract. That might be too ambitious but Lamb had better overall numbers last year than Jefferson, who missed seven games, and was right there with him in terms of per-game averages. 

Zoom out and look at the two receivers’ careers to this point, however, and Jefferson starts to separate from Lamb. That’s not a knock on Lamb, Jefferson is just having the best start to a career by any NFL receiver — ever: 

Name	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	Y/Tgt
Jefferson*	392	5,899	30	10.2
Lamb	395	5,145	32	9.1

*57 games to Lamb’s 61

More than likely, Lamb’s next contract will slot in just below Jefferson unless he’s willing to play out his contract year and try and repeat his 2023 production. However, he’d be taking on some injury risk by doing that, and as long as Dallas’ guarantees on a new contract offer aren’t unreasonably low, it probably wouldn’t make sense to do that. 

Dallas hasn’t necessarily acted rationally this offseason, so projecting what they’ll do with Lamb comes with a little bit of uncertainty baked in. But the two sides should agree to a new contract sometime between now and early in training camp that slots between Jefferson ($35 million per year) and Eagles WR A.J. Brown ($32 million) in average annual salary. With the precedent Jefferson and some other receivers have set, that should be a real average value without any balloon years. 

The main contention points will probably be the length of the deal and guarantees. Dallas historically has pushed for long deals because they give the team a lot of flexibility on the back half of the contract. Players have begun to move away from long deals because with how fast the salary cap is growing, a five-year deal is giving up too much earning potential and leverage on the player’s part. Several receivers have signed just three-year extensions. Four is the logical compromise for the Cowboys and Lamb. 

Jefferson’s deal far outpaced the rest of the receiver market in guarantees. His $110 million in total guarantees and $89 million guaranteed at signing is miles above Brown’s $84 million total guaranteed and Hill’s $52.5 million guaranteed at signing. 

(If you’re confused about the difference between “total” guarantees and guarantees at signing, fret not, agents and teams purposely try to make complicated contracts harder to understand. Total guarantees are partially made up by the agents as a recruiting pitch to future clients and usually include injury guarantees or guarantees that don’t vest until later in the deal. Full guarantees or money guaranteed at signing has almost no strings attached.)

Lamb could make significant strides for the rest of the market in this area. He’s unlikely to equal Jefferson’s guarantees but he could narrow the gap, perhaps substantially. Getting to $60 million fully guaranteed at signing and $90 million in total guarantees would be substantial benchmarks. 

Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase

The other receiver who was watching Jefferson’s negotiations especially closely was Chase, his former teammate at LSU. He’s also been a star from Day 1 in the NFL and one of the best receivers in football. He has the seventh-most receiving yards ever by a player in his first three seasons. 

But that was still more than a thousand yards behind Jefferson, who it’s worth reiterating has had the best start to his career by any receiver ever: 

Name	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	Y/Tgt
Jefferson*	324	4,825	25	10.1
Chase	268	3,717	29	9.1

*through first three seasons

Chase is eligible for a new contract for the first time this offseason, and like Lamb he would have a credible case to slot in just underneath Jefferson in terms of average annual salary, guarantees, etc. A key difference between him and Lamb, however, is that Jefferson still has two more years left on his rookie deal after Cincinnati exercised his fifth-year option for the 2025 season worth $21.816 million guaranteed. 

The two other receivers drafted in the top 10 in 2021 along with Chase — Eagles WR DeVonta Smith and Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle — already signed extensions this offseason on top of the two years they had remaining on their deals. So did Lions RT Penei Sewell, which is another notable data point even though he plays a different position. There is precedent for a new deal after just three years, and it could help the Bengals stretch the impact of Chase’s inevitable massive contract over more years of their cap, making it easier to balance his deal with other big contracts. 

It would also not be surprising to see both sides be willing to wait. Guaranteed structure is a major sticking point for the Bengals who have an organizational policy to only guarantee the first year of a contract outside of rare exceptions, like for QB Joe Burrow. Chase will be seeking a similar guarantee structure as Jefferson and the Bengals might not be willing to budge on that on top of giving Chase a deal after only three years. 

Waiting to do a deal isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Chase either. If he has a huge season in 2024 and the salary cap takes another significant leap, Chase could put himself in position to exceed Jefferson’s contract, not just match or slot in underneath. He’s been brilliant over the first three years of his career and has enough leverage to withstand even a drop in production due to injury like Jefferson saw this past year, though obviously it depends on the injury. The Bengals will also have a more difficult time playing hardball with him than they have other players, like fellow WR Tee Higgins. 

Speaking of Higgins, Jefferson’s contract does make it more unlikely that Cincinnati is able to retain Higgins on a long-term deal, even if the more analogous extension for Higgins’ camp was the three-year, $72 million deal the Texans gave WR Nico Collins. The Jefferson contract provides more certainty about what Chase’s deal will cost and also likely raised the price, meaning less in the budget for other players. Some teams have been able to fit contracts for two major receivers as well as a franchise quarterback under their cap, but the Bengals are unlikely to be able or willing to do that without compromising on their conventional contract structure. 

Higgins’ camp was reportedly using the three-year, $70 million deal for Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. as a comparison and starting point in their negotiations with Cincinnati. Pittman was taken the pick after Higgins in 2020 and was also franchised this offseason. In terms of average annual value, it’s a solid deal for Indianapolis, but the $41 million fully guaranteed was a strong, player-friendly number. 

The Bengals haven’t negotiated with Higgins since trading opening offers, and on the current trajectory, he’ll play out the tag this season. If he has a big season, his deal will likely exceed both Collins and Pittman, especially if he reaches unrestricted free agency in 2025. 

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk

Jefferson’s deal shouldn’t actually have a massive impact on negotiations between the 49ers and WR Brandon Aiyuk. Other receivers have already set the parameters for Aiyuk’s extension and he’s in a different tier than Jefferson. The biggest impact might be to the franchise tag number next offseason which is what the 49ers would have to use to keep Aiyuk if they don’t extend him this year. 

Ultimately the factors that will matter the most to the 49ers and Aiyuk are how much the receiver is willing to give up to stay in San Francisco and how badly the team wants to get a deal done — knowing they have tough decisions coming up with other key veterans on the roster and can’t pay everyone. Expect this situation not to be resolved until closer to training camp at the earliest. 

The 2022 WR Class & Beyond

With what seems like the annual wave of talented receivers entering the league, there will be no shortage of players who should continue to move the market forward. These receivers have all had strong starts to their career so far after being drafted early in 2022. They’ll be eligible for extensions next offseason: 

• Saints WR Chris Olave
• Jets WR Garrett Wilson
• Steelers WR George Pickens
• Falcons WR Drake London

Olave and Wilson have had the best start to their careers of this batch and both have topped 1,000 yards receiving in each of their first two seasons. But there’s easily another level both could tap into if the offensive environment around them is healthier than it has been the past two years. 

Pickens has an outstanding highlight reel and will try to build more consistency as he steps into the No. 1 role for Pittsburgh, albeit on a run-heavy offense. London has flashed the past two years but seems to have been held back by Atlanta’s quarterback issues and philosophy on offense the past two years. He has yet to crack 1,000 yards receiving, but as the first receiver taken in 2022 he could be set up for a huge deal if he has a season as big as some people with the Falcons expect. 

How the 2024 season plays out will dictate the contract situation for this group and others. Catching Jefferson might not be in the cards but depending on how much the salary cap grows, you could easily see $30 million per year be the new benchmark for receivers to push for. A rising tide lifts all boats, and Jefferson’s new high-water mark will be a big reason for that in the next year.