NFLTR Review: The Case For Patrick Mahomes As MVP

By
Logan Ulrich
-

The race for MVP is more competitive than usual this year. But there’s one right answer. In this issue:

  • Why Patrick Mahomes should be the 2022 MVP
  • Three other worthy contenders — but Mahomes stands apart
  • Plus, quick hits from one of the wildest weeks of football in a while

MVP Mahomes

Usually by this point of the season, a clear frontrunner for the NFL MVP award has emerged. And perhaps with the injury to Eagles QB Jalen Hurts derailing a competitor, the door has been opened for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to seize that mantle. That’s what the current betting markets indicate, though the race has been competitive all year, as this chart will illustrate, with multiple twists and turns. As we sit here today with three weeks to go in the season there are four candidates who could still make a run at bringing home the award depending on what happens the next three weeks, with Bengals QB Joe Burrow and Bills QB Josh Allen joining Mahomes and Hurts. 

That said, if I had a vote for the MVP award, Mahomes would lead my ballot. And he would have been the frontrunner for the past few weeks as well. That’s not to take anything away from the seasons the other quarterbacks are having. They’re all playing extremely well for contending teams. 

Mahomes is just on another level. 

Looking at traditional statistics, Mahomes leads the NFL in touchdowns, including 35 through the air and three more on the ground. He also leads the league in passing yards with nearly 4,500, putting him within striking distance of the NFL single-season record of 5,477. Even if he doesn’t reach that, he should top 5,000 yards passing, which would be just the 15th time that’s been done in NFL history and Mahomes’ second. 

He does have 11 interceptions, which is not ideal. It’s tied for third-most in the league and more than double Hurts’ mark of five interceptions. However, it’s tied with Allen and just one ahead of Burrow. What’s more important here is that the positive plays far outweigh the negative with this bunch. 

Moving beyond raw stats only enhances Mahomes’ MVP resume. He leads the NFL in QB rating and is second in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), which takes into account sacks and turnovers, although not rushing production. That is better captured in EPA per play, which is another category Mahomes leads the league in along with EPA + completion percentage over expected composite.

(For more breakdowns on these stats and what they measure, go here. I personally prefer them over just yards, touchdowns and picks, as I think they better capture context that can be missing in traditional raw volume stats) 

But I think the most compelling thing I can point at to make the case for Mahomes is your own two eyes. Just watch the man play. 

The eye test can be a subjective thing, but when it comes to Mahomes, it’s easy to see his greatness. If you want to tie it down to a number, PFF grades are essentially a form of quantified eye test — and they’re not without their controversy — but even PFF has Mahomes as the highest-graded quarterback this year. 

This is Mahomes’ fifth year as a starter and it seems like every other week he’s making plays that redefine what the public sees as possible from the quarterback position. It’s easy to become desensitized to the scramble hijinks and highlight throws but we should not take it for granted. This has been a weird year for QB play, with a lot of big-name stalwarts struggling. Even players like Allen have had lulls. That’s not been the case for Mahomes, who has been consistently excellent week in and week out so far. 

The other important thing to remember about the MVP award is it’s not just about stats or talent. “Most Valuable Player” asks voters to create a narrative about who is the most critical player to their team’s success. It’s why the award overwhelming goes to quarterbacks instead of any other position. Hurts, Burrow, Allen and Mahomes all have the stats and win totals to put them in the MVP conversation. What will separate them in the minds of the voters will be the narratives surrounding each. 

Burrow has a loaded receiving corps, though the way he’s maintained a high level of play as various members of that group have been banged up this season is notable. Cincinnati’s defense is also outstanding. Allen has carried a huge load for the Bills on offense as both a passer and runner but he had a streak of turnovers that cost the Bills some games midseason and still leads the league in turnover-worth plays, per PFF. 

Hurts has an outstanding team around him as well but we’ll get to see how well Philadelphia fares without him in the lineup. What he brings that none of the others do, aside from perhaps Allen, is his impact in the run game. Allen is a great runner but Philadelphia makes designed runs with Hurts a major part of their game plan and it’s a huge benefit to their run game that ranks No. 4 in the league. There’s a compelling argument for Hurts to be the MVP but unfortunately his shoulder sprain could nuke his case if he misses multiple games and the Eagles beat Dallas with Gardner Minshew. 

As for Mahomes, you can make a case his supporting cast is the worst out of the four. The Chiefs aren’t bereft of weapons — they are Super Bowl contenders after all and TE Travis Kelce is elite — but they entered this season following major changes on both sides of the ball. They completely revamped the skill position group after trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins and there’s a big youth movement on defense. This was supposed to be the year the Chiefs took a step back, and you could see that in the way the rest of the AFC West loaded up this offseason. 

Instead, Mahomes and the Chiefs haven’t missed a beat. 

There are still three games remaining in the season and room for more of the story to be written. Allen and Burrow in particular have some big games to state their case. But right now, Mahomes is the deserved frontrunner. He’s got the stats, he passes the eye test and you can tell a compelling story about why he deserves the award. 

This Week In Football

  • It’s all about the quarterback in the NFL and the news cycle this week reflects that. Compared to past weeks, the injury list isn’t too long, but it does feature a number of prominent starting passers. The Eagles will be without QB Jalen Hurts after he sprained his shoulder in Week 15 against the Bears. It doesn’t sound like a severe injury but the Eagles have the luxury of a big lead for the No. 1 seed and a strong backup in QB Gardner Minshew, so they can get Hurts back to 100 percent. 
  • Titans QB Ryan Tannehill hurt his ankle again, and while he returned to the game and nearly gutted out a win against the Chargers, ultimately it looks like this injury is going to end his 2022 season. Third-round QB Malik Willis will finish out the season and give Tennessee a chance to evaluate what their future looks like in 2023. It’s worth noting there will be a new general manager, but that might not matter as much if HC Mike Vrabel is the most important voice there. Elsewhere in the AFC South, the Colts benched veteran QB Matt Ryan for the second time this season after he led the offense to just three second-half points as Indianapolis gave up the largest comeback in NFL history. Ryan of course was also on the losing end of the largest Super Bowl comeback ever…  For most players, their career doesn’t end gracefully but this is just another level of sting for Ryan. Hopefully over time, his accomplishments like the MVP are given just as much weight. 
  • This year was the first year the Falcons played without Ryan since 2007, but it appears the Marcus Mariota era is already over and Atlanta will be in the market for a new starter in 2023. Mariota was of course benched last week, but he went an extra step and decided to have knee surgery to address a chronic issue, but not one that was ever listed on the injury report this year. It caught the team off guard and left them scrambling to find a backup. Given the cap savings, it’s likely the Falcons release Mariota this offseason and cut ties completely. It’s not completely out of the question to wonder if this is it for him in the NFL as well, as other teams won’t like how he abandoned the Falcons. 
  • There have been some quiet rumblings about Rams QB Matthew Stafford’s future given his placement on injured reserve with a neck injury. Those kinds of injuries take on a heightened degree of importance for players considering what life after football will look like, and there’s been speculation that Stafford could call it quits after this season. However, for Rams fans worried about needing a new quarterback, the veteran definitively shut down the idea of retirement this offseason. So it seems like you can cross the Rams off the list of teams that might be on the quarterback carousel this offseason. 
  • Good news has become hard to come by in Arizona, so the report that QB Kyler Murray had a “clean” or isolated ACL tear was a welcome tidbit. It means Murray’s recovery will be simpler and the odds are higher that he will be able to return to 100 percent sooner. Now whether or not that’s by Week 1 is still a major question. That will be nine months after surgery, which is on the early end for rehab timelines. He could be playing but might not be all the way back, which given the style of football he plays is a big deal. That will be a problem for a new general manager in Arizona, as it appears the Cardinals will go ahead and replace GM Steve Keim as he goes on his indefinite, health-related leave of absence. That of course begs the question of whether Arizona will just go ahead and wipe the whole slate clean with HC Kliff Kingsbury as well…

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

The NFL was outstanding this past week. You had the Vikings’ historical comeback, the absurd ending between the Raiders and Patriots, the Jaguars’ overtime comeback and several other tight, competitive games. But it overshadowed some real junk from the officiating. The refs hit Washington with a double whammy with a ticky-tacky illegal formation penalty right before missing a pass interference in the end zone on fourth down. Raiders WR Keelan Cole somehow wasn’t ruled out of bounds on his game-tying touchdown catch. And multiple fumbles were incorrectly whistled dead to take touchdowns off the board for the Vikings…

It’s low-hanging fruit to criticize the refs, and contrary to popular belief I don’t think it’s gotten significantly worse this season. No getting around it, though. This week was bad…

Early thoughts and prayers to Vikings fans in the playoffs. Start taking heart medication now…

In the past two weeks, Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins has 28 carres for 245 yards — 8.75 yards per carry. If he’s going to do that on a knee that’s still clearly not back to 100 percent, he’ll be just fine even if it never gets there…

Burrow might not win MVP this year, but I feel safe in saying that award will come at some point in his career…

https://twitter.com/maxralph_/status/1604609882992349184?s=20&t=m8j_3JmO9RnM5qy-7QVdBw

Dumbest penalty of the year?

This merits a discussion. Micah Parsons is a candidate for defensive player of the year but he’s been banged up way more than he was his rookie season. Statistically, his numbers are pretty similar to his rookie year and he has three more games to go still, but his efficiency is down. As a rookie he had a pass rush productivity rating (which weights sacks, hits and hurries) of 14.2, second in the NFL. This year it’s 11.1, good for seventh. Still excellent but it opens up room to ask whether deploying Parsons as a full-time edge rusher is the best move, both from a production and a long-term sustainability standpoint…

Last year, ESPN’s advanced metrics gave us pass rush win rate against double team rate which I found incredibly insightful. Their open score ratings might be even better. So much to glean about wide receiver play in the NFL right now from this…

I admit to being intrigued about Zach Wilson at one point during the pre-draft process in 2021. However, I never understood how he became the locked-in No. 2 overall pick so quickly, and someone who was viewed as a Day 1 starter instead of a patience play who needed to sit and learn. Maybe Wilson never would have worked out regardless but the Jets really misplayed this situation and have been trying to desperately stuff the cat back into the bag. Now it’s probably too late for Wilson, at least in New York…

Looking for the latest NFL Insider News & Rumors?

Be sure to follow NFL Trade Rumors on TWITTER and FACEBOOK for breaking NFL News and Rumors for all 32 teams!

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR

Leave a Reply