NFLTR Review: What If The Commanders Had Traded For Jimmy Garoppolo?

By
Logan Ulrich
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This past offseason was huge for QB movement. But it all could have been very different. In this issue:

  • The ripple effects had the Commanders traded for Jimmy Garoppolo
  • An alternate reality where Wentz is a Steeler, Mayfield is a 49er and Pickett lands with…?
  • Tua fallout

The Big Picture: What If Garoppolo Landed In Washington?

ESPN twice reported last week that the Washington Commanders were all set to trade for 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo this past March before his shoulder surgery killed his trade market. It was first mentioned in a story from the San Francisco beat explaining how Garoppolo ended up staying with the team, then breaking news czar Adam Schefter confirmed it on Sunday, going so far as to say the parameters of a deal were already in place. 

Both reports make it seem like Garoppolo was the Commanders’ top option after they struck out on some of the other big-name options, which makes current starting QB Carson Wentz Plan C or Plan D. Team sources predictably pushed back on that narrative to local reporters, as there’s no reason to project anything but confidence in Wentz now that they’re committed to him for the 2022 season. Still, the dots are fairly easy to connect here. 

This all begs the question: what if Washington had ended up with Garoppolo after all? What if they’d taken the leap on his injured shoulder, or if Garoppolo had never been hurt in the first place? In the wild quarterback carousel of this past offseason, what kind of domino effect would that have had? 

Let’s try and peel back all the layers of that onion…

Commander Jimmy

Washington infamously called all 32 teams this offseason looking for an upgrade at quarterback after struggling through the past couple of seasons with Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith and Taylor Heinicke. The goal was to add a veteran who could take advantage of the talent on the roster, especially given how underwhelming the 2022 class of rookie quarterbacks looked. If the Commanders did prefer Garoppolo to Wentz like this reporting implies, it probably has a lot to do with Garoppolo’s track record of success with a quality team around him. 

We outlined in another piece on Garoppolo back in August that the veteran is widely viewed around the league as a solid starter and there are some statistical categories where he stacks up quite well to his peers. Right now the Commanders are basically asking Wentz to play point guard and distribute the ball to a bevy of talented skill position players — Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson, Jahan Dotson, J.D. McKissic and Logan Thomas. That’s similar to what 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan has asked of Garoppolo in their time together. 

The biggest difference between the two players is their physical capabilities. Wentz is bigger, stronger, and, while not as spry as he was early in his career, still more of a threat to defenses with his legs than Garoppolo. Arm strenth is another box you can tick in favor of Wentz, and that’s a trait that made him appealing to Washington when evaluating the options they had left this offseason. Heinicke was a gamer in 2021 and remains one of the best backups in football, but his pop-gun arm was a big drag on the offense. Though the Commanders are just 1-2, they have been a lot more explosive in the early goings of the Wentz era. 

However, it’s worth pointing out Garoppolo used to be a lot more of a gunslinger early in his tenure with the 49ers. He started five games to close out the 2017 season and the first three games of the 2020 season before going down with a torn ACL. In those two seasons, PFF tracked his average depth of target as 9.4 and 9.5 before it fell to 6.9, 6.5 and 7.6 in the seasons after. After coming into the game in Week 2, Garoppolo alluded to feeling less constrained by the system and being able to play free like he did early on. Shanahan is a brilliant offensive mind but also a notorious micromanager. Perhaps the Commanders saw that and reasoned Garoppolo would be able to air it out enough to not limit their offense.

Garoppolo still has a tendency toward the same mind-numbing mistakes that have tanked Wentz’s career. We just saw an example of that with the safety and other turnovers at the end of Monday night’s game against the Broncos. There’s a reason the 49ers were ready to turn the page to Trey Lance after all. Still, you can make a case that Garoppolo is more consistent from down to down than Wentz, and that would have a positive effect on the office. 

Reports have indicated the 49ers wanted two second-round picks for Garoppolo before the shoulder surgery, so it’s probably fair to assume the parameters of the deal Schefter reported were in that neighborhood. Washington gave up a third this year and what will probably end up being a second next year for Wentz as well as dropping five spots in the second round this year. They used the pick on DT Phidarian Mathis, but that was viewed as a reach at the time. If they had kept their third instead of a second in dealing for Garoppolo instead of Wentz, it’s quite possible Mathis would have still been on the board. 

For the 49ers, Eagles C Cameron Jurgens stands out as someone who that extra pick in the second round could have netted as a real impact player for them this season. The interior of their offensive line was already a mess and the loss of LT Trent Williams will be huge in the coming weeks. You have to factor in rookie growing pains but if you swap in Jurgens for any of Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel or fourth-rounder Spencer Burford, you feel a lot better about San Francisco’s line. They still would have been left with Nate Sudfeld when Lance went down but more on that in a bit…

The Wentz Problem

Think back to early March. Aaron Rodgers signs an extension to stay in Green Bay and end the trade drama. The Seahawks and Russell Wilson finalize their divorce and he jets off to Denver. Washington trades for a veteran quarterback to get ahead of the madness of the musical chairs game unfolding — only now in our alternate reality it’s Garoppolo, not Wentz. 

That means the Colts are still trying to figure out what to do with Wentz. Remember, they had predetermined they were moving on no matter what after just one year, making Wentz the scapegoat for all of the issues that culminated in the season-ending collapse in Jacksonville. Had no team emerged with a trade offer, Indy would have cut him early in the league year to avoid more of his salary guaranteeing. 

At the time, it looked like the Commanders lost their nerve and bailed Indianapolis out of a sticky situation by trading two Day 2 picks for Wentz. When Colts HC Frank Reich — who oversaw Wentz’s outstanding 2017 season in Philadelphia and banged the table for the trade to get him after 2020 — was ready to cut ties, that was a bright red flag for the rest of the league. As a result, there wasn’t a ton of buzz around Wentz’s trade market and potential buyers. 

Tom Brady unretired and saved the Buccaneers. The Giants and Texans had young players of their own in Daniel Jones and Davis Mills they were evaluating amidst rebuilds with an eye on 2023. Perhaps the Seahawks might have gotten involved but they were selling hard the idea of a Geno Smith/Drew Lock competition and didn’t budge for a lot of guys this offseason — and so far Smith has not looked unworthy of that trust. 

The team to watch here would have been the Steelers. Wentz is still young enough to be a theoretical long-term solution at quarterback, and it was former GM Kevin Colbert’s mission to try and find that guy this offseason after Ben Roethlisberger retired. Pittsburgh was probably reminded a lot of Roethlisberger if/when they evaluated Wentz this offseason with his size, penchant to hang in the pocket and his gunslinger tendencies. He also has enough mobility to execute Steelers OC Matt Canada’s system which is heavier on bootlegs and getting the quarterback out on the move. 

It would have been interesting to see if the Steelers’ downfield passing woes so far this season with starting QB Mitchell Trubisky would have still been an issue with Wentz, who’s not afraid to rip it in spite of what the coaches might be telling him. Pittsburgh’s offensive line might have been exposed more with Wentz, however, who tends to hold the ball longer. 

Another question is if the Steelers would have traded for Wentz or waited for the Colts to release him. We’ll get into both scenarios (this is starting to turn into a multiverse) but if they had traded for Wentz, it’s likely they could have gotten a better deal than Washington did if they were willing to squeeze. The Titans acquired Ryan Tannehill for a fourth-round pick and also had Miami eat some of his salary on the way out back in 2019. If that’s the best offer you have on the table as the Colts, it still beats cutting Wentz for nothing. 

The Rest Of The Dominoes

After the first two big quarterback trades and the two old guys (Brady and Rodgers) signing on for another year, there was a lull while multiple teams pursued a trade for Deshaun Watson. It’s unlikely things with Garoppolo or Wentz would have affected this situation too much. Washington either ruled itself out or was ruled out of the Watson sweepstakes early on and pivoted to other options. Same for Pittsburgh. The rest of the quarterbacks took a backseat as teams chased what they viewed as the clearly superior option from an on-field talent perspective. Things probably would have played out the same way: 

  • The Browns come from behind to win the bid with $230 million fully guaranteed
  • Amidst the fallout of pursuing Watson, the Falcons trade Matt Ryan and the Colts are still the best option. Atlanta sticks with Marcus Mariota because of the scheme fit with HC Arthur Smith
  • The Saints re-sign Jameis Winston after flirting with Watson as they continue their efforts to run everything back minus Sean Payton

Baker Mayfield is still left in limbo with the Browns, and with the Steelers’ trade for Wentz, the Panthers are left to decide between trading for Mayfield or signing Trubisky. I think there’s a good chance they would have gone with Trubisky, as he was affordable and Carolina didn’t really warm up to the idea of Mayfield until later in the offseason. From Trubisky’s perspective, returning to North Carolina where he played in college would have had its perks. More practically, the Panthers would have probably been the only starting job left unless he elected to sign with the Giants as a backup/bridge option to 2023.  

It’s possible this would have actually turned out better for the Panthers. So far through three games, Mayfield is completing just 51.9 percent of his passes. Trubisky’s at 60.2 percent. Mayfield has more big plays and is responsible for four touchdowns to Trubisky’s three. Both have one interception and no lost fumbles, though Mayfield has fumbled four times to Trubisky’s zero. Mayfield edges out Trubisky in ANY/A, but Trubisky has an advantage in QBR (44 to 18.8), EPA+CPOE composite (29th to 32nd) and a huge advantage in PFF grade (14th for Trubisky, 32nd for Mayfield). 

Mayfield lasted all the way until July before Carolina traded for him as virtually the only bidder, and in this scenario it’s likely he would have languished even longer in Cleveland, including into the start of training camp. Mayfield’s camp would have pushed for a release but the more likely outcome would have been the Browns excusing him from camp like the Texans did with Watson or like the 49ers did with Garoppolo this offseason while hoping for a buyer to emerge. If nothing else, they could collect a comp pick when Mayfield left in free agency in 2023. 

Turns out there was the type of cataclysmic injury that necessitated a move for a quarterback this year, only it was in San Francisco. In this scenario where the team has traded away Garoppolo and is left with Sudfeld leading what the 49ers think is a playoff team, it’s very possible the 49ers could have been interested in trading for Mayfield. He would have been the only starting caliber player left at that point, aside from maybe someone like Cam Newton or trading for a previous backup who has experience in the system like Brian Hoyer or Nick Mullens. When you’re staring down 15 games from Sudfeld, though, Mayfield doesn’t seem as bad. 

The other major domino to consider is real-life Steelers first-round QB Kenny Pickett, who probably doesn’t get his feel-good, stay in Pittsburgh story if the team trades for Wentz. He was the only quarterback in this maligned class to go in the first round, and it’s entirely possible the Steelers were the only team who would have been willing to take him that high due to the familiarity factor of him being their literal next-door neighbor. Consider how the rest of the first round played out: 

Pick Team Selection
21 KC (from NE) Trent McDuffie
22 GB (from LV) Quay Walker
23 BUF (from ARI, via BAL Kaiir Elam
24 DAL Tyler Smith
25 BAL (from BUF) Tyler Linderbaum
26 NYJ (from TEN) Jermaine Johnson
27 JAX (from TB) Devin Lloyd
28 GB Devonte Wyatt
29 NE (from SF via MIA & KC) Cole Strange
30 KC George Karlaftis
31 CIN Daxton Hill
32 MIN (from LAR via DET) Lewis Cine

 

The only two teams you can squint and see a need for a quarterback are the Titans and Lions, scheduled to pick at No. 26 and No. 32 before trading out of the round. Maybe someone else would have been willing to trade to No. 32 with the Lions to get the fifth-year option, like the Falcons or Seahawks. There’s a good chance Pickett could have slipped to the second round, however, and then anything could happen. The rest of the class fell to the third or later and probably isn’t affected by anything in this scenario, though if the Titans took the plunge on Pickett, perhaps eventual Tennessee third-rounder Malik Willis ends up in Pittsburgh as a developmental prospect and hedge. 

The Last What If? 

I mentioned earlier the Steelers could have waited the Colts out and allowed Wentz to reach free agency. It’s also possible they would have preferred Trubisky to Wentz all along given he takes care of the football better, was cheaper and allowed them to take a stab at a rookie quarterback. 

Either way, in that scenario Wentz hangs in limbo along with all of the other middle-tier quarterbacks as the Watson sweepstakes play out. I don’t think his availability changes the equation much for the participating teams. It’s worth pointing out, however, that Browns GM Andrew Berry was with the Eagles in 2019 and had some familiarity with Wentz, who led the team to a 9-7 record and a playoff berth that year. Do the Browns pursue Watson as aggressively if Wentz is available as a fallback? I still lean toward yes, as Berry has shown he understands the impact an elite quarterback can have and why it might be worth compromising everything to get one. 

Familiarity with the coaching staff likely pushes Mariota and Winston ahead of Wentz for the Falcons and Saints respectively as consolation prizes. Once again that leaves the Panthers as the last job available, though you can’t completely rule out the Seahawks from making it interesting. Carolina was desperate enough this offseason that I can see them winning a bidding war for Wentz and talking themselves into the potential he’s displayed in the past. 

As we’ve seen however, reaching it is another matter entirely. Three games in, Wentz looks like the same quarterback he’s been for most of his career. Carolina isn’t bereft of talent on offense between RB Christian McCaffrey and WRs D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson, but collectively they’re worse than the Commanders, especially in the coaching and offensive line department. Watching Wentz misfire to McCaffrey would have been painful, though to be fair it’s also torture watching this current staff waste his talents. 

Summary

Just in case you didn’t want to read all that, if the Commanders had traded for Garoppolo, we could have ended up with this: 

  • Steelers trade for Wentz
  • Panthers sign Trubisky
  • Titans draft Pickett
  • 49ers trade for Mayfield

This Week In Football

  • We’re in an interesting part of the calendar right now, as there’s a lull for major news right now and we’re far enough away from the trade deadline that there’s not a lot of action on that front yet. The big items moving the needle right now are injuries, and we’ll get to a long list of those. One trade situation that is starting to percolate, however, is in New York with WR Kenny Golladay. Despite arriving with high hopes on a four-year, $72 million deal last year, Golladay has struggled to make much of an impact. So far under new HC Brian Daboll, he’s even struggled to see the field much, which caused him to voice his displeasure last week. He saw more snaps on Monday night but didn’t back it up, failing to haul in any of his three targets including a brutal drop. At this point, both Golladay and the Giants would probably welcome a trade, but the devil will be in the details. New York could eat the rest of the veteran’s salary this year, the big hang up is a $4.5 million roster bonus for next year that’s already guaranteed. Golladay has put up precious little on tape in the past couple of years to show he’s worth another team taking that on. The two sides might have no other choice but to make it work for the duration of the 2022 season. 
  • An 0-2 start and one of the ugliest offenses in football had started to raise the heat even more on Panthers HC Matt Rhule, who entered 2022 with the hottest seat in the NFL. However, a report before Week 3 indicated Panthers owner David Tepper planned to give Rhule plenty of time before pulling the plug, and the Panthers staved off the noise for at least a week by beating the Saints for their first win of the season. Afterward, some of the players gave Rhule one of the game balls, which is a sign he hasn’t lost the locker room just yet. Odds are still against Rhule saving his job in the end, especially given how dismal the offense continued to look in Week 3, but at the very least it seems like Rhule could avoid a midseason firing. 
  • The list of injuries this week is long and consequential: 
    • Titans LT Taylor Lewan confirmed he will miss the remainder of the season with his knee injury, depriving a struggling Tennessee offensive line of its best player. This also could be the end of Lewan’s time with the Titans, as they’re hard up against the cap next year and could save a significant chunk by cutting or trading the veteran. 
    • The Bills got banged up all of a sudden, and while many of the key defenders they were missing will return soon, they will be without veteran S Micah Hyde until 2023 due to a neck injury. Buffalo should still be great on defense but there could be more breakdowns going forward without the reliable Hyde patching things up on the back end. 
    • Expectations were sky high for the Chargers entering the season, despite a long history of something always inevitably happening to tank those. Through three weeks, injuries are threatening to derail Los Angeles. Several star players are playing banged up but it’s long-term injuries to guys like LT Rashawn Slater and DE Joey Bosa that are the most concerning. Slater is out for the season after a torn biceps, meaning the Chargers have book-end tackles of Storm Norton/sixth-round rookie Jamaree Salyer and Trey Pipkins to protect QB Justin Herbert and his injured ribs. On the other side of the ball, Bosa will be out for a while with a groin injury which ruins the Chargers’ vision of opposing offenses having to deal with both him and Khalil Mack screaming around the edge. 
    • The biceps issue is a relatively common one for linemen, as the Ravens lost veteran DT Michael Pierce for the season with a similar injury. Fortunately for Baltimore, although Pierce was playing well they have a replacement who looks ready to step up in third-round DT Travis Jones. 
    • Detroit’s defense has given up a lot of points and yards early on this season and the loss of veteran S Tracy Walker to a torn Achilles won’t help them staunch the bleeding. One of the players replacing him, JuJu Hughes, had the coverage bust that led to the Vikings’ game-winning touchdown in Week 3. It won’t always be that on the nose, but Detroit will miss Walker. 
    • Patriots QB Mac Jones went down with an ankle injury that looked pretty gnarly at the time based on Jones’ reaction. New England is notoriously stingy with injury info even when it’s not the starting quarterback, so no one from the team has given any real indication of how long Jones could be out. However, it looks like there’s a good chance this could be a multi-week absence, at least. Not ideal for a Patriots team that was already struggling a bit at 1-2. 
    • In a situation that could have been far, far worse, Browns DE Myles Garrett rolled his car while leaving practice on Monday, yet escaped with only minor injuries. Things could have been far, far worse. Garrett might even still play this week. 
    • Giants WR Sterling Shepard already looked great coming back from a torn Achilles that ended his 2021 season and was New York’s leading receiver. So for him to go down on a completely innocuous-looking play where his ACL just gave out while he was jogging on the final play of the game is an awful, awful blow for Shepard. He faces another grueling rehab to get back on the field and an uncertain future after accepting a pay cut to stay with the Giants and turn 2022 into a contract year. 
  • Thursday night saw another significant injury, one that opens up a much larger conversation. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was whipped backward and slammed into the turf on a sack, hitting the back of his head. He stayed down, arms raised and fingers twisted — an obvious fencing response indicating brain trauma — and was ruled out of the game with head and neck injuries. What makes that even more horrifying is that just five days ago, Tagovailoa again exhibited clear signs of neurological trauma after hitting the back of his head on the turf. He cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol, which is supervised by an independent neurologist, and Tagovailoa said after the game it was a back injury that made him wobble. But look, you don’t have to be a doctor to use your eyes, and plenty of other doctors saw the video and thought the same thing. The NFLPA has opened an investigation that will hopefully suss out all of the facts about what happened and how Tagovailoa was allowed to play. If the protocols weren’t followed, you can bet there will be serious consequences. But I will add two things: concussions are finicky. Symptoms can show up a day or two later, and there’s sometimes not much rhyme or reason as to which hits result in concussions and which don’t. The second is that players want to play, and they’ll do anything within their power to stay on the field. The protocols are supposed to protect players from themselves as much as they are to protect players from teams. At least in theory. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

This is more obvious to those of us in the trade rumor business. But we’re in the middle of a drought when it comes to NFL news. On Sundays, the big hitters in the breaking news business drop what have been termed Sunday splash reports. Here are a few of the “splash” stories we’ve had:

Real heavy-hitting stuff here…

If you want high-level NFL writing, check out this piece from The Ringer’s Ben Solak. This is outstanding, nuanced and original insight into what the issues with the Bengals have been early in the season…

Outstanding journalism on an important topic…

https://twitter.com/CBSSports/status/1574130901268795394?s=20&t=NTDIiO5ncfALfnzXQkJ-Xg

This was a special moment from Sunday, especially considering the two are division rivals and there’s so much for both men riding on the result of each game…

We’re at a point where Walker is doing something freaky every single week. Well on his way to justifying the No. 1 pick if you had any doubts…

Entering this season, the AFC West was supposed to be the toughest division in Football. Well so far that hasn’t panned out. The Chiefs lead the way at 2-1 and have some issues the loss last week exposed. The Broncos and Chargers are both 1-2 and sorting through a lot. And the Raiders bring up the rear at 0-3 — with their three opponents 0-6 in their other games…

Parity has been a theme for the NFL as a whole so far this season. The Eagles remain the NFL’s only 3-0 team, while the Raiders are the only 0-3 squad. The other 29 teams are somewhere in between…

In other funky stat news, Bears QB Justin Fields is averaging just 15 pass attempts per game through three weeks. That would have been a below-average number of passing attempts even in the leather helmet era…

The article here is super interesting and worth a read. Basically scoring is down because defenses are putting a lid on and daring offenses to nickel and dime them underneath without making a mistake. What I hope the competition committee doesn’t do is overcorrect and tighten up on pass interference calls to try and get the ball moving. One of my least favorite things is watching bad offense get bailed out by ticky-tacky penalties…

It feels like football may be finally starting to close the gap when it comes to available stats compared to other sports, and the player-tracking data has been a game-changer for this kind of work. ESPN released new receiver metrics based on this data; giving scores for getting open, catching the ball and running after the catch. There are some familiar faces at the top of those leaderboards, but some surprising ones too…

Bizzaro world in Seattle when they’re more willing to let Geno cook than Russ…

Brilliant…

Allow me a moment to rave about Raiders WR Mack Hollins. I got to cover Hollins in college at UNC and he’s exactly the type of guy you love rooting for on your favorite team. He won the third starting job at receiver for Las Vegas this offseason and came up huge on Sunday, with eight catches for 156 yards and a touchdown that pulled the game to within two. And yet this might have been his most impressive play…

https://twitter.com/Digital_Prez/status/1574114093417451520?s=20&t=LC3Bj1vMqMJ5hxxISLK55A

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