Five Big Names Who WON’T Be Traded

It’s a great time of year to be in the trade rumors business. There’s plenty out there on the players who might be on the move and the ones who have already switched teams, including tons of stuff from us here at NFL Trade Rumors.

But there’s a lot less about the players who won’t be traded despite the speculation. I get it, it’s way more fun to think about what might be possible than it is to pour cold water on the hype. I certainly have done my fair share of hypothesizing here on the site. In this case, though, I think it’s instructive to look at some players who have been churning through the rumor mill, the reasons why and how those reasons just don’t add up in the same way they do for others. 

Here’s a look at five players who have garnered substantial trade buzz in some form or fashion in the past few weeks, but who I am confidently staking a flag that they will NOT be traded before the deadline on November 5. I recognize once I put this on the Internet I am daring the NFL fates to smite me with the sword of Old Takes Exposed, as it sometimes feels like there are teams who love nothing more than to subvert expectations. 

Regardless. We press on. 

Rams QB Matthew Stafford

In the past week or so, rumors about a possible trade that would send Stafford from the Rams to the Vikings have started circulating. As best I can tell, it started on Twitter with one of those random accounts, anonymous despite having a checkmark, that like to claim they have sources somehow offering them insight. This one claimed Minnesota and Los Angeles were deep in talks to swap quarterbacks. 

The “chatter” as Pro Football Talk termed it was loud enough that it prompted a few reporters to check in with official sources, who shot the idea down. Now of course, if there were any actual Stafford negotiations going on, it does the teams no good to acknowledge it officially. That said, there are a plethora of other reasons why a Stafford trade — at this point in the season — is a complete fantasy. 

The reason the Stafford rumors got traction is because there are a few kernels of truth and reason embedded in the nonsense. The Rams were 1-4 at one point staring down a potential rebuild. There were serious considerations to trading star WR Cooper Kupp before Thursday night’s win against the Vikings propped Los Angeles back up to 3-4. Stafford is 36 years old and spent the whole offseason in a quiet contract standoff with the Rams that lasted into the start of training camp. He was seeking future guarantees from the Rams and ended up getting a slight raise in 2024 — but no future guarantees. The partnership between him and the Rams is very much up in the air beyond this season. 

As for the other side, plenty of Vikings coaches came to Minnesota from Los Angeles, including HC Kevin O’Connell, which would give both sides a ton of familiarity. The Vikings are 5-1 and have been one of the surprise teams of the season behind a remarkable start from QB Sam Darnold. But Darnold’s resume pales in comparison to Stafford’s, and there’s a sense the former No. 3 pick could still turn back into a pumpkin. On paper, Stafford would be an upgrade for the Vikings. 

In a video game, this is the kind of deal that makes sense. In real life, there are major considerations for both sides that would kill this deal. Let’s start with the Vikings. Even though Stafford would be better equipped than most to catch up midstream in the Vikings’ offense given his familiarity with O’Connell, he still can’t replicate the practice time and chemistry Darnold has already built with the team’s pass catchers. One of the reasons teams usually don’t make big trades or signings for quarterbacks midseason is because it’s too hard to catch up mentally with everyone else. 

It would be one thing if Darnold was playing poorly or below average — we just saw something similar play out with the Steelers — but there’s a case to be made Darnold has been better than Stafford this season. The Vikings signal caller was better or on par with Stafford in nearly every major statistical category entering Week 8. If we look at more subjective measures of quarterback play to try and account for Darnold having a much better supporting cast, he still comes out ahead. PFF has him graded as the No. 18 passer with a 68.8 grade, but is even lower on Stafford at No. 33 and 56.5. In EPA per play/completion percentage over expected composite, Darnold is No. 9 in the league and Stafford is No. 25. And while EPA is a team stat, not necessarily a QB stat, independent analyst Kevin Cole has created an adjusted EPA per play metric that tries to factor in things like dropped passes and interceptions to contextualize quarterback performance. Darnold remains top ten in the metric with a positive adjustment. 

I’m not saying Darnold is a better quarterback than Stafford. Track record matters, and the former Super Bowl MVP is still executing high degree of difficulty plays, plus just shredded one of the NFL’s hottest defenses on Thursday. But this does show that Darnold isn’t any kind of problem right now for Minnesota, not one they need to swing a huge blockbuster trade to fix. To trade for Stafford, the Vikings would have to give up a premium draft pick, possibly a first-round selection, and take on the remainder of Stafford’s $23.5 million 2024 base salary. Even if they could swing it financially, the draft pick makes it a non-starter. 

Stafford also doesn’t make sense when viewed from a longer window with 2024 first-round QB J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings. Minnesota already will have a bit of a headache figuring out how to handle Darnold, who’s set to be a free agent in 2025, and McCarthy, who played just a handful of preseason snaps before a season-ending knee injury. They don’t need to add Stafford into that mix. 

A trade right now doesn’t make sense from the Rams’ perspective either. They’re not in a position to maximize Stafford’s value with how little cap space most teams have available and too many teams out of contention, especially compared to the offseason when the quarterback market will be at its peak. It’s also not ideal for the Rams to have to eat money to trade both Kupp and Stafford, especially when it would lead to more than $62 million in dead cap on their books in 2025. The Rams ate a lot of dead cap in 2023 and still made the playoffs in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, but it would be foolish to bank on that twice.  

Had the Rams lost to the Vikings and fell to 2-5, I would not have been surprised to see them trade Kupp before the deadline and launch some sort of major rebuilding project this coming offseason, including moving on from Stafford. But my jaw would have dropped if neither player was in Los Angeles two weeks from now. 

Raiders DE Maxx Crosby

It’s easy to see why Crosby’s name would come up in trade rumors after the Raiders dealt away WR Davante Adams. Las Vegas is clearly in a rebuild and rebuilding teams have to consider who will be a part of the future and who will not. Crosby’s one of the best pass rushers in football and would generate a ton of interest if the Raiders truly did make him available. 

There’s also been speculation about if Crosby would try to force the issue. Since being drafted by the team in 2019, Crosby has seen the postseason once — a 2021 wildcard loss to the Bengals. He’s had four different head coaches in the same time span. The Raiders have finished with a winning record just one time and are 41-49 overall in Crosby’s tenure. He’s put himself through physical hell at times to stay on the field, missing just a single game in six years despite no shortage of injuries. It’s tough for players to sacrifice that much when winning doesn’t follow. 

While Crosby has said time and time again he wants to play for the Raiders his whole career, he did say something eyebrow-raising after the Adams trade when asked about the Raiders rebuilding again. 

“I’m not here to rebuild. I’m here to win,” Crosby said via SI.com. “I’m here to win now, and wherever I’m going to be, I’m going to be here to win. That’s all that matters to me.”

Beyond the rebuilding comment, the part where Crosby said “wherever I’m going to be” is interesting. If nothing else, it suggests Crosby is aware after the Adams trade that it’s a two-sided partnership, and he’s only in Las Vegas for as long as the Raiders want him to be. On that front, the Raiders seem to be on the same page. Owner Mark Davis tried to nip the Crosby trade rumors in the bud in public comments after trading Adams, and there hasn’t been much of anything substantial regarding Crosby leading up to the trade deadline. 

My hunch is the Raiders would be seeking multiple first-round picks if they ever decided to trade Crosby, or at minimum a package including a first, second and more. Pass rushers capable of winning Defensive Player of the Year don’t grow on trees and the Raiders know they have a valuable commodity. That kind of monstrous deal is for the offseason, not right before the trade deadline, especially because Crosby also has a $24.5 million 2024 base salary and is probably due for an updated contract with just two years and a little more than $40 million remaining on his contract. 

Bengals WR Tee Higgins

The Bengals are a reliable illustration of one of the most important dichotomies in NFL analysis — what teams should do versus what they will do. 

In the case of Cincinnati and Higgins, there’s a case to be made the optimal course of action would be shopping Higgins to the highest bidder before the trade deadline. The two sides have been unable to reach a long-term agreement and Higgins is playing out this season on the franchise tag. A second tag would be burdensome for the Bengals, probaby more than $25 million, so in all likelihood Higgins is headed toward unrestricted free agency. 

While the Bengals aren’t out of the mix at 3-4, the odds are against them being meaningful Super Bowl contenders with that record. Instead of losing Higgins for nothing aside from a potential compensatory pick, the argument goes that they could try to flip him for a second or even a first to help them compete in future seasons. 

That’s the case for what the Bengals should do. I can tell you now what they will do — as Cincinnati is one of the most predictable organizations in football. The Bengals are run like an old-school family business because that’s exactly what they are under owner Mike Brown and his daughter, EVP Katie Blackburn. Their front office is one of the smallest in football and operates under a series of precedents they adhere to almost unyieldingly. For example, Cincinnati doesn’t guarantee money past the first year in extensions with almost no exceptions. They did it for QB Joe Burrow but their reluctance has led to other players walking out the door and current standoffs with Higgins and WR Ja’Marr Chase. 

The Bengals also rarely make trades during the season, even when they arguably should. Cincinnati was 2-14 in 2019 and 4-11-1 in 2020 and turned down opportunities to move players for picks at the deadline in both years. They have been in this same situation with the franchise tag with multiple other players and each time eventually ended up letting them walk instead of working out a trade. 

That’s why I had complete confidence earlier this offseason the Bengals would tag Higgins and chase a Super Bowl rather than pursue the opportunities they had to trade him during the offseason, particularly around the draft. It’s why I’m confident even at 3-4 the Bengals will keep plugging along with Higgins on the slim hope they can turn things around, squeak into the playoffs, get hot and go on a run. 

Saints RB Alvin Kamara

Kamara is another player who came up in trade rumors because someone random on Twitter claimed to have sources — I am BEGGING for some media literacy from the populace — but I would say his two-year, $24.5 million extension from earlier this week killed those off convincingly. The majority of that sum is reportedly guaranteed and was marketed as a deal that gave Kamara a chance to finish his career in New Orleans. It runs through the 2026 season when Kamara will be 31. 

Obviously the Saints don’t plan to trade Kamara in the next two weeks. But I included him here because it’s an interesting opportunity to talk about the Saints’ plan going forward. They’re 2-5 but HC Dennis Allen entered the season on the hot seat and can’t really afford to start shedding players if he hopes to turn things around and save his job. The Saints also have mortgaged so much of their future salary cap space that trading or cutting players alone wouldn’t rebalance their books. 

All the way back in May, we took a look at the exit strategy for the Saints facing another massive deficit of more than $80 million in the red in 2025. Much of it is dated — the Saints didn’t trade CB Marshon Lattimore before the start of the season and extended Kamara rather than cut him in 2025 — but most of it remains relevant. The Saints will have to restructure several players or negotiate pay cuts, but the rising tide of the NFL salary cap will lift them out of their belt-tightening period just the same as it made their unique cap strategy feasible and even optimal during the end of the 2010s. 

This is notable because most teams wouldn’t extend their 29-year-old running back to a multi-year deal in the middle of a 2-5 season. The Saints are not most teams. Everyone hoping for them to see the light and start managing their cap like a normal team is engaging in wishful thinking. It doesn’t mean Allen’s job is safe and it doesn’t mean some kind of reset isn’t coming. But for now, the Saints remain philosophically opposed to a large-scale teardown and rebuild. 

Browns DE Myles Garrett

The Browns are no strangers to tough times but this year felt like a unique punch in the gut. Cleveland had real playoff expectations after clawing into the postseason last year, but limped out to a 1-5 start behind an avalanche of problems, including awful play from QB Deshaun Watson. Cleveland pulled the trigger on a trade sending No. 1 WR Amari Cooper to the Bills, waving the white flag on the season to some degree, then lost Watson to a torn Achilles in the following game, cementing the need to rebuild. 

The Browns have a long road ahead of them to rebuild this roster and are expected to be open to more trades before the deadline to shed salary and add picks. With $173 million in salary obligations to Watson remaining, the team will have to be frugal and rebuild through the draft while also looking for a new quarterback. While they are back to having their full complement of early picks after trading their firsts from 2022-2024 for Watson, the Browns are still staring down a multi-year rebuilding project. 

Given all that, it makes some sense for the team to consider trade offers for its most valuable remaining asset: Garrett. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year would command a massive haul in draft capital. Two first-round picks is a feasible trade package, even though Garrett is nearly 30 and probably due for an updated contract. He’s due a little under $35 million for the next two years and based on current market rates he should be making at least twice as much in that same time span. 

Cleveland has to consider if it makes sense to turn down trade calls and sign Garrett to an extension or if they need to flip him for the picks and cash to direct to other areas of the roster. Pass rushers are always in demand and Garrett is making just the veteran minimum salary now, so if they wanted they could probably trade him before the deadline. 

However, esteemed Browns beat reporter Mary Kay Cabot has reported that the Browns consider Garrett “virtually untouchable” right now. She says the team plans to rebuild the defense around him and a few other players, and for his part Garrett wants to finish his career in Cleveland. Pass rushers can remain productive into their 30s, so this does make some sense for the Browns. 

Ultimately this is the player on this list who I feel the least confident about not being traded before the deadline. There are a lot of reasons it would make sense and not as many contractual hurdles holding up a deal. But so far, the tea leaves are not pointing in that direction. Come the offseason, we’ll see if that changes.